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SPY trade ideas

05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders. Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences. In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers. Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult. Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital. Get some. Happy Memorial Day. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
2
SPY 4H | Smart Money Concepts x Fibonacci ConfluencePrice has rallied into premium territory (above the 0.786–0.886 Fibonacci retracement), tapping into a prior strong high with signs of exhaustion. From a Smart Money perspective, we're entering a high-probability sell-side liquidity sweep zone. 📉 Key Technical Highlights: 🔺 Strong High @ ~613.23 aligning with FVG and premium zone 🔻 Projected retracement target: 560–565 zone (mid-FVG & equilibrium) ⚖️ Equilibrium at ~563 — likely acting as magnet for price 🟦 Demand zone and breaker block overlap between 560–570 📈 Long-term bullish trajectory remains intact if this corrective leg plays out and holds Bias: Short-term Bearish: Potential rejection from premium into equilibrium Mid-term Bullish: If we reclaim the demand zone with strength, we likely re-accumulate and target the ultimate liquidity grab @ 644.46 "Liquidity seeks liquidity. Patience is premium." – Wavervanir DSS 📍Watch for volume confirmation and reaction near 560–570 before scaling in. If invalidated (close above 613), reevaluate bullish breakout scenario. #SPY #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #Wavervanir #Liquidity #VolumeProfile #OrderBlocks #TradingView #QuantStrategy #PriceAction #SMC
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY | Liquidity Engineering or Reversal?🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025 🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC “Major buyers are lurking... but will the market deliver the fill they want?” That’s the question. We’re currently watching a tactical rejection near 598.22, the 0.886 Fib retracement of the prior high-volume breakdown. This level historically serves as a liquidity sweep zone before decision-making candles emerge. 🔍 Technical + Volume Profile: Liquidity Zones: Resistance: 594.4–598.2 = prior supply + Fib confluence Demand Zones: 567.5 → anchored VWAP / trend channel midpoint 559.3 → 0.618 Fib + major positioning cluster Volume: Distribution volume into prior highs = possible short-term exhaustion EMA Structure: Bullish stack but extended from mean; room for reversion to VWAP bands. 🧠 Macro Overlay: Risk Events: Debt ceiling headlines are muted, but upcoming PCE inflation and labor data could dictate short-term gamma positioning. Options Skew: OTM put volume rising; VIX curve remains steep in front-end → suggesting hedging or prep for pullback. Macro Setup: Real yields are sticky, and the Fed is not signaling dovish pivot yet — any continuation will need confirmation via breadth and credit spreads. 🛡️ Risk Framework: Reclaim 598.2: Bias flips bullish with upside into 613–644 Break Below 567.5: Opens doors for deeper retest at 559 or even 533 Neutral Range: 567.5–594.5 → Let market structure show intent before deploying size. 📌 Game Plan: Let price come to you. Patience > Prediction. Market is deciding whether to reward early breakout traders or punish late longs via mean reversion. Watch the 567–559 cluster—that’s where smart money may reload. — 🔗 #SPY #MacroTrading #VolumeAnalysis #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #Wavervanir #SP500 #LiquidityMap
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Spy Road To?Weekly Thesis for SPY Weekly High: $594.50 Weekly Low: $589.28 Weekly Close: $594.20 52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23 Critical Breakdown Level: 581 Why 581 matters: It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10. A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34 Potential Sell-Wall at 604 Why 604 is a resistance cluster: It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels. A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume. 4. Strategy & Outlook Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s. Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+. Action plan: Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared. Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts. Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation. Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPY
by JoeWtrades
SPY Intraday Breakdown | Will the Fill Zone Hold?🕰️ 15-Min Chart | May 21, 2025 🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC A textbook ascending wedge breakdown has triggered intraday, breaching dynamic support right at the edge of the VWAP envelope. This breakdown aligns with a higher time-frame rejection seen near 598.22 (0.886 retrace zone). 🔍 Intraday Observations: Structure Break: Rising wedge support snapped → suggests momentum shift short-term. Next Liquidity Pools: 📍 567.51 – Prior HVN zone and VWAP mid-band 📍 559.30 – Golden pocket + historical positioning from April Volume Spike: Bearish confirmation on rising sell-side volume. 🧠 Strategic Context: Macro Tone: Market breathes as participants await key inflation data + Fed speak. Liquidity is not risk-on. Risk Flow Watch: Options OI building around 560/570 strikes — could magnetize toward there if flow accelerates. 🛡️ Tactical Setup: Short-Term Bias: Bearish to neutral into 567.5–559.3 zone Mean Reversion Setup: Watch VWAP / 3-day anchored VWAP cluster around 559 as a potential reload zone Invalidation: Quick reclaim and hold above 590 with strong volume flips intraday tone bullish again. 📌 Message to Traders: Major buyers may be lurking below. The market is deciding whether to reward trapped longs or give value buyers their fill at better risk-adjusted zones. We remain liquidity-aware and flexible. — 🔗 #SPY #IntradayTrading #VolumeProfile #Wavervanir #LiquidityMapping #VWAP #Orderflow #SMC
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
I was early, but not wrong - 571 target still standsHello Traders, We can clearly see a top signal as SPY has started to play out a bearish divergence at the 594 level. The 594 level seemed to fade during after hours upon the announcement of Moody's US credit downgrade as the price sliced through the 590 level all the way down to 588. I believe the price will rapidly cascade down sub 580, down to 571 Monday - Tuesday. The gap fill is at 565.13. The gap fill level is too obvious, therefore I would be surprised if the price perfectly reversed (although, expect a reaction at this level). My target for this downturn is 561.63, which is the 38.2% fib level, as low as 551.48. This would offer a great pullback and buying opportunity for the long term, for the bullish case. I personally believe that the stock market won't make all time highs, but does not mean I will miss out on bullish opportunities, if the trend does truly reverse. As always, we will have to see what Monday brings us.
AMEX:SPYShort
by gencollado
Ugly SP500 Reaction to Treasury YieldsUnlike other headline news, long term interest rates breaking out to the upside is an immediate threat to equity prices especially if it's driven by bond vigilantes rather than strong economic news. This will immediately compress valuations and particularly hurt high growth and small caps the most. In addition, this is not a one-off headline where equities markets can easily shake it off and continue to rally. I think we're going to test the gap ~$567 on AMEX:SPY after breaking down from a rising wedge and triggering the PSAR flip.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Audacity618
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 G7 Finance Ministers Convene Amid Tariff Tensions Finance ministers from G7 nations are meeting in Banff, Alberta, focusing on restoring global stability and growth. Discussions are expected to address excess manufacturing capacity, non-market economic practices, and financial crimes. Tensions may arise due to recent U.S. tariffs affecting multiple G7 nations. 🛢️ Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Concerns Oil prices increased over 1% following reports that Israel may be preparing a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such actions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies, particularly if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for crude exports. 📈 Retail Earnings in Focus Major retailers, including Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), and TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Moody's Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising national debt and interest payment ratios. This move aligns Moody's with previous downgrades by Fitch and S&P Global, potentially impacting investor sentiment and increasing market volatility. 🛍️ Retail Earnings in Focus Major U.S. retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Lowe’s ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), Ross Stores ( NASDAQ:ROST ), and Ralph Lauren ( NYSE:RL ), are set to report earnings this week. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing tariff concerns. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Several Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak this week. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions, especially in light of recent economic data and market developments. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 19: 8:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks. 8:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams speak. 10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for April. 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 8:30 AM ET: Building Permits and Housing Starts for April. 10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks. 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales for April. 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report. 📅 Thursday, May 22: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims. 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI for May. 📅 Friday, May 23: 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with AMEX:SPY bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
AMEX:SPY
by splitmyIVandmelt
Repeat of Late Apr-May lows & rallyThe chart shows the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on a 1-hour timeframe, with a pattern appearing to be repeating itself from late April/May(Liberation day announcements) dip and then boot and rally from trade announcements, all marked by colored lines. The colored lines (blue, red, purple) highlight a recurring price action setup. Each set of lines seems to mark a sequence of movements: Blue: Sharp drop, then gap up Red: Consolidation at a lower higher from gap up, return to high, consolidation back lower at previous lower high Purple: Breakout & reversal upward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NumbaGoUpCapital
$SPY May 22, 2025AMEX:SPY May 22, 2025 15 Minutes. Last week I expected the retracement towards 580 levels as numbers were far away from moving averages. But AMEX:SPY kept moving towards595 and suddenly broke yesterday towards 582 levels. I expect it to settle down around 579 - 581 levels then a pull back is on cards as now we have the reverse on the cards with the 200 being away again. On left side we have a big gap around 570 - 577 levels which I feel will be sorted out before a consolidation. The weakness below 590 has keto 582 levels. At the moment if 578 is broken i see support around 573 574 levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
SPY Broke The Sine-Wave Center - Not GoodWe see the 3 tiny arrows—proof that price was rejected by those who knew. The Trend Barrier, once solid support, cracked without resistance. Price dropped right back into the Medianline set. The small pullback? Totally expected—just like the Medianline rules suggest. Then came the brutal drop, textbook-style, straight to the Centerline. The springboard move back up to the U-MLH and the Trend Barrier? No surprise—if you understand the Medianline Framework. Because this is just P2. Also—watch the white line. That’s what I call the Sine Wave. Why does it matter? Because the center point (where the red pullback arrow is) often gets breached in a fake move... right before price reverses hard. From P2: down, down, down... lower than P1. AND THAT SHOULD SCARE THE HELL OUT OF YOU! …if I’m right 😈 But if it fails? Then we’re looking at a monstrous V-shape recovery—one that could send the indexes skyrocketing. So there you have it. What’s your direction? Let me know—and tell me why! §8-)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
8
SPY ... intersting levels when view by DXY ratio and pitchforkSame as all my others, so for reference see my earlier ideas for better grasp of what I do... But when the dollar changes, you must track that with price to see if things are in inflated territory or deflated territory. As in, gold goes up cause the currencies its measured against go down....cant view it another way. So if SPY is overdone, it should be higher than previous highs...which the one chart below shows....but the price chart doesn't show it....so if your stock accelerates faster than the currency can devalue....you have potentials for blowoffs and hard reversions. enjoy:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK