2HQ trade ideas
TLRY Long - Correction ExpectedTLRY - Correction expected. The only question that remains is will the correction become impulsive. Either is possible. Depending on structure we may move up higher only to retest support before trending higher. Idea is backed by company fundamentals and future regulatory limitations being lifted. Ambitious pre-roll targets support futher upside. Expect high volatility as hedge funds are locked and loaded on both sides of the trade.
TLRY Long Term Swing Idea$TLRY Tilray is becoming the biggest Cannabis company, anything below $30 is a gift. I also like $GTBIF Green Thumb Industries though, so I'll probably move my profits from Tilray into Green Thumb Industries.
Entry Price =$30 SL = $15, TP = $140. Risk:Reward = 7.33
TLRY Tilray Long term Swing IdeaAny buy below prices of $30 is a gift by heaven, Entry Price = $30 TP = $140, SL = $19. Risk:Reward = 8.0
Tilray Given Up All Gains, Time to BuyThe potential for huge growth in cannabis companies is obvious. The spike we have seen in the past week has retraced almost all the way back to where it started, this offers a great chance to re-enter longs. The spike may have been caused by the Reddit craze nonsense which explains the big dump as well but this is still a good trade/investment.
I would like to see the price stabilise in the current area and confirm that the support here will hold as it has been very volatile. If it does hold here and show that it will rise then the previous high is a good target, around $64. If it breaks this resistance then a target of $115 can be next, this is 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the all time high to the low. If you are looking at this as an investment there is no telling how high it could go.
TLRY The Move Has Only Just Started.First of all, what a great week this was! We have worked hard to chart and track the moves, ever since the $APHA reverse merger was announced, and anticipated upside. It was phenomenal, the way the waves just kept extending. It was surprisingly easy as well. Any trading mistake we made, was forgiven and rewarded with a higher high, all the way until we saw that hourly reversal candle. Let us remember the above for the next time we are in an explosive move, so that we can remind ourselves with more confidence, that it is time to lock in profits.
I have been trying my best to keep up with the counts of the sub waves of this spike. The day before it plunged, I noticed that I had ran out of labels to keep marking any potential further extensions. I am wondering if this is a coincidence, and made a note for future reference.
Where are we now?
It is hard to keep track of several degrees all at once, but I have made a careful assessment of intermediate degree and its subdivisions. Intermediate 1, I have aligned with the broader industry, and intermediate 2, I have more or less assumed, based on where it bottomed. The chart here, shows intermediate 3 and its subdivisions. Notably, intermediate 3 hasn't topped yet.
What is that spike?
The spike is clearly a third wave, but its subdivisions tell me that the short squeeze happened during subminuette 5 of minuette 5 of minute 3. This suggests that we are currently looking at minute 4, and that minor 3 and intermediate 3 are not yet done. That makes sense to me, if you zoom out even further. This is a recovery rally, and ultimately, all strong LP's should make a higher high this year (or next). Also $TLRY.
What is next?
First, lets have a look at the daily chart:
We have a reversal candle at the top, a steep drop, and we closed the week with another reversal candle. If we look at the 4 hour chart, you see that the circled setups are each others inverse:
To me, these two charts signal a potential bottom and we should be looking for a bounce. How much of a bounce depends on next week's (bull) volume.
What to expect next week?
We should expect a minute wave 4. The first minute correction, minute 2, was a flat. The Guideline of Alternation says we'll get anything but a flat this time. We can choose between a zigzag, a triangle, a double three or a triple three.
We've just completed a zigzag down, so theoretically, she could break out again, right here. But considering the volume, I anticipate buyers to rotate to another industry, and leaving cannabis alone for 3 to 6 weeks. We need to keep an eye on signs of strength, and take it one day at a time. Studying spikes during a bull market, there is usually a period of sideways ranging, before choosing direction.
Just a thought
Usually, when assets spike like this, investors need time to digest the move. Indeed we could make another spike next week, but it wouldn't be reasonable not to assume that a base will form first, before continuing on a more sustainable rally upward. There is a reason to assume that most investors are still terrified because of what happened in 2018. That was a bear market. We need to learn now, that bull markets see larger moves upward, and smaller moves down. The larger trend is up, back then, the larger trend was down. $TLRY has a small float, and with $APHA, they are a world wide play with an entry into the US, with Simon's drinks play. Make no mistake. There is a lot of word that drinks are the way to go. Study Sweetwater. These guys are THE play, but the merger has to complete. If it does, then there is no telling where Primary wave 3 will end. That is the intra year wave we are riding.
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Successful trading is about managing risk, not avoiding it. Hello All,
This is the first idea I am publishing in Tradingview and I decided to select the topic of risk management, specially after the dramatic increase and subsequent decrease on prices which we have seen in TLRY and other weed stocks this week, all mostly happening in 48 hours.
If you just started trading and got involved on weed stocks, you probably been though a very painful experience because a lot of your precious money is probably gone. As trading becomes more and more popular, many new people join the market but without understanding the very basics of it and without considering risk management.
If you are one of those new joiners, I strongly advise you to improve your knowledge about risk management. here some basic rules:
1. Set a stop-loss!
2. Position size = (risk*budget) How much money you invest.
3. Entry point : When to buy
4. Exist point: When to sell.
To put it very simply, never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell one because it has gone down! I think the case of TLRY is a classic example of this.
So, what I described here here is just very basic. You should and must educate yourself about risk management, otherwise trust me you will regret your experience as trader.
PS: If you are new to this, I recommend you to read a very old but classic book about investment called "The intelligent investor" by Benjamin Graham. Let me be very clear that trading is not the same than investing. Which are you. really?
Have a good weekend!
WEED - euphoric rally spike.Hi,
This is what happened after the last euphoric rally in tilray. I was just learning to trade, and was hyper optimistic on the weed sector with recent state level legalizations sure to drive the market. I rode tilray down way too many slow slides as I learned the market cycles.
This peak will be no different. Im excited to see how closely it tracks the previous pattern, and when it breaks out, which way it goes! Hopefully up!
Be careful trading in the high risk parts of the market cycle... better to be patient for when the surf is up than to loose all your credits swimming around in the chop. :)
Good Luck!
$TLRY : Some relief. Into the pre-pump channel..Following up on $TLRY´s chaotic behaviour (yeah, that´s my excuse for a sensical sell off when I was dumb enough to be a buyer) it seems it will in fact follow the long term channel projected "as if" the pump hadn´t existed.
Let´s see, please comment.
Wish it hits the 40´s and its at 34. Not bad.
Tlry buy 28.70 areaDecline to green support after strong run up
Buy on decline 28.70
If it drops more to green will look to buy more on buy configuration.
Let see if price will bounce up from here
TLRY M15BULLISH BAT for SCALPING
Within 3-5 price bars need the confirmation from a BULLISH CANDLE with RSI ABOVE 30 expecting HOP LEVEL
price need to follow Green Trend line & hit target
If price Breaks Red Trend line is where EXIT before SL hits
POTENTIAL BUY
TLRY - The Stock Market in 3D - then and nowScouting a bounce (green circle) if we move one level down - currently supported at the .5 of the active channel.
TLRY Epic C Wave after epic 3rd waveTrying to recapture the hourly MA8, could be the first sign of a bounce... Yesterday's price action was to be expected, after a move up in a similar fashion.
She still looks bullish in the higher degree.
Buy zones and sell zones displayed Overall this sector will be very positive this year but need to build position.
TLRYwait for consolidation
be patient with your entry - or get crushed
or wait for tomorrow, it's better late than early
Cannabis Sector Short Atack A short video on what happened todayin the cannabis sector and how to read it on level 2.
Enjoy!
Has WSB gang lost their mojo?Looks like WSB gang has lost their mojo. Their latest short squeeze target TLRY is turning out to be a dud!
$TLRY : Yes, I stepped over a rattlesnake buying it @$44-32.7 :(This is my approach after today´s $TLRY sell off or should I say, tsunami?
I projected a possible long term trendline from before the "pump" and it took me to... about current price.
I also see a possible channel following "more or less" such trend, and it takes me to exactly the current place, in a $31-37 "ish" zone.
Presently clueless as to where it is headed, just describing the present situation.
Comments welcome and encouraged.
And yes, I bought several times today, under the wrong idea that 20,30% falling was enough. No, it was NOT enough.
I made several purchases between $44 and 32.75, ending up with a $39.54 average cost per share.
Not proud about it.
Go ahead. Tell me.
TLRY Entry and Exit Positions~39-46 moderate support levels. Id expect strong support at the Gap down at $33. Look for entry positions at these retest levels. Exit a portion of your position (30%) at around $68. Hold the remaining 70% for higher levels of resistance. Set your stop loss safely below $33 to maintain your position if the idea is invalidated. If the idea is valid and $33-46 holds, expect new highs.
Tilray- Updateseeing that half the bulls got rekt this morning by wallstreet(look at the percentage drop its 50%) . I hope you guys learn not to be so wishful, with hype stonks. At this point Wallstreet bets is no better than wallst, as i believe they are misinforming the public and adding to their own shorts.
At any rate, head and shoulders still stand , I believe it will go back to support at the first rectangle and if the white supporting trendline is broken then it goes back down to the second gold rectangle and from there you can go long for cheaper as the bulls get obliterated.
This could potentially form a bullflag, but that's like a 60 percent chance of happening, for the sake of not getting rekted and others rekted i will wait this trade out/
TLDR; If white line is broken price action goes to both gold rectangles
Tilray...The dip is your friendTilray is a long term hold.Its came down to gas up in the mean time legislation reformation for marijuana is in progress. Earnings have been pretty well. We will be passing the old all time highs.Be patient and buy in the green zone.
