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Mercadolibre Inc.Mercadolibre Inc.Mercadolibre Inc.

Mercadolibre Inc.

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MeracdoLibre $MELI full earnings preview below, bullish chart Via OptionsHawk.com Mercado-Libre (MELI) will report earnings 2/21 after the close with the Street calling for ($0.11) EPS and $411.7M in Revenues (-5.8%) on tough Y/Y comps, while Q1/FY19 seen at ($0.16)/$418.9M. Shares have closed higher 9 of its last 11 reports with a six quarter average max move of 9.6% and average closing move of 7.4%. The $16.3B operator of an online commerce platform in Latin America that has also pushed into Payments trades 8.2X FY19 EV/Sales and sees 37% revenue growth for 2019 and 42.8% growth for 2020 with profitability set to ramp in 2020 as well after 2017/2018 were key investment years. MELI has historically traded in a 6.5X to 9X EV/Sales range. Analysts have an average target of $377.50 on shares and short interest is 6.8% of the float, down 11.5% Q/Q. Goldman started coverage on 2/5 with a Buy rating and $438 target expecting it to defend and expand its leadership position in the Latin American e-commerce market and numerous structural growth opportunities in the region. BTIG was out on 1/16 with app tracking metrics showing increased market share lead in mobile wallets and a strong position in Latin America payments. CSFB has an Outperform rating and $398 target and previewed Q4 results on 1/28 noting the company’s well known efforts to slow down Marketplace unit growth and anemic growth set to continue until lapping these changes in Q3 2019. It sees MELI’s take rate rising to 15.5% from 12% in the next five years, Street numbers too low, and optionality of increased take rates. Hedge Fund ownership fell 36.5% in Q4 filings with Lone Pine Capital, Tiger Global, Criterion, and Carmignac Gestion reducing positions while Jericho and Cadian sold out of positions. On the chart MELI is sitting just below a key weekly trend line and above a key VPOC level. A move above $370 measures to a longer term target of $460 and weekly RSI has already broken out of a downtrend and monthly MACD nearing a bull crossover. The options market is only pricing in a 4.3% earnings move which is cheap compared to historical actual moves. MELI has a number of notable positions in open interest with over 12,500 March $290 now deep ITM calls bought in November and December, 7,000 March $320 synthetic long positions that have strategically been rolling, and 1,000 March $340 calls opened on 12/20 rolling from Jan. $310 calls. MELI’s 30 day IV Skew of +6.7% is steep compared to the +2% 52-week average. tradingview.go2cloud.org
NASDAQ:MELILong
by OPTIONSHAWK
Best of 2019 Short stock? Just look at this price rangesMacro: Distribution - ABC pattern after 1-5, obvious, obvious So long at these prices not realistic. 300 was pierced easy, so no real support at 300, thus anything 300+ is running on fumes. Still part of the emerging market. Stock valuation is of the rockets. -142 PE and -2.3 on EPS Micro: Volatile increase toward average high price of 330, when average high is 340. Macro might push it a bit, but price is not sustainable, Decline is well obvious. Any lower High, is a sign for the next day drop so have shorts, u never know. Bull point: They generate revenue on Earning Report. Positive development of some kind outside of SPY pushing prices up. Good luck everyone ;) **LEGENDS** BLUE = Bear/Resistance Yellow = Bull/ Support ~Explore the chart for possible scenarios of price actions - use zoom and scroll for better view.~ /*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*/ If you want your coin to be analyzed, JUST ask. If you got a question, ASK away! And please keep those Stop losses in place! Fractal dates are moments of interest, where price and time collide to create oscillation - vertical lines! Thank you, Ajion
NASDAQ:MELIShort
by Ajion
$MELI vs. $BIDU - I'd be short if I wasn't neutral I've had $MELI on my WL for I guess a few weeks now, just because the dip looks healthy - something you can definitely see coming. Decided to use a comparison just because the MA strategy I use is complicated, but more reliable (to me) than charting a neo wave & making an entry right before price makes an impulse move. Takes the waiting/chasing price out of a potential impulse move. But main difference between the two - more impulse moves, same trend. $MELI little more oversold with a little less of testing much (new) resistance. Decent impulse move upward of the dead kitty label would be my ideal put/short. Other than that, this one is a little scary for bulls or bears lol
NASDAQ:MELI
by DerekD_
MercadoLibreShort from $402.50. Could see some more buying in the near future - this is a long term play. - Due to increase in investment towards free shipping and loyalty programmes, chargebacks marketing as well as higher maintenance posting and fraud prevention cost, margins are currently under pressure. - Free shipping and loyalty programmes are currently at their initial stage of deployment and as they progress they will increasingly put pressure on the margins. - NASDAQ:MELI is also exposed to a large foreign exchange risk, the company currently operates in 19 different countries, with different currencies and the SEC requires that the money earned is to be converted to dollars. Thus, if the US dollar was to appreciate or depreciate vs foreign currencies, it can severely impact the company’s financial results. - Their different segments experience seasonality. Fewer listings after Christmas, and other holidays results in weaker demand in the first quarter. However, year-end shopping can cause stronger demand in the fourth quarter. The seasonality causes large fluctuations in revenues and profits and makes the forecasting difficult. - Price to book is 52.72 vs industry average of 6.47. - 98.05% institutional ownership - $940m Short Interest NeroTree Capital rates MercadoLibre Inc as a SELL with a price target of $300 over the next 52w.
NASDAQ:MELIShort
by UnknownUnicorn2415222
MELI IS IN HEAD AND SHOULDERSHeads up. MELI Online E-commerce superstar out of South America is potentially forming a head and shoulders formation on could be an opportunity for some great trading in the next 3-6months on this fast mover. Discounted Cash Flow Model produces a valuation of $440 using historical growth and margins in forecasting method - around 32% revenue growth. This implies a 27.53% upside. If the model proves correct, the price will correct to its upper trendline at LT resistance. Relative Pricing model to competitors (AMZN, EBAY, FB, SHOP, TCEHY, and BABA) produces a weighted average share price of $385 or +11.84% upside. If the model proves accurate the price will move to the LT resistance trend line or steadily appreciate relative to its peers. If the stock corrects below the neckline of the H+S, it will correct to LT support at which would be a solid time to add to your position due to the LT growth prospects of the firm. This will likely be caused by macro risk at which time you should reassess the position to add or exit. Cheers and good luck!
NASDAQ:MELILong
by StuartTabor
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