Tesla (TSLA) | Short-Term Compression, Long-Term ExTesla’s daily chart is coiled, with price currently trading at $316, sitting along the 200-day moving average. This looks like a consolidation phase with significant moves building up.
Price Action Snapshot
TSLA sold off last week, rejecting the $335 resistance level before finding footing around $300. The previous range of $280 and $365 is now tightening.
Immediate resistance sits at $335 with a clean breakout above that zone likely triggering momentum back toward the upper range of $365.
The recent drop does not seem like a capitulation move; it's likely institutional redistribution. Smart money is repositioning, not exiting.
Market Is Focused on the Wrong Data
Tesla’s Q2 earnings were objectively weak. Revenue fell 12%, deliveries dropped, and operating margins got clipped.
But this correction isn't all about fundamentals. It is about the market adjusting to a company evolving beyond traditional valuation models.
While most investors are trying to value Tesla like a car company, it’s spending this entire phase retooling itself into an AI and autonomy-first enterprise. That transition doesn't show up in EPS yet (but it will).
The Bigger Picture is Being Missed
The robotaxi rollout in Austin is live. Expansion into California, Phoenix, and Florida is on the roadmap.
Tesla is building a vertically integrated, owner-driven ride-hailing model that could eventually bypass both Uber and legacy OEMs entirely.
Optimus is no longer a lab prototype—it’s moving toward scalable production by 2026.
If Tesla even partially succeeds in general-purpose robotics, it will unlock a Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) that dwarfs the current EV narrative .
Daily Technical Outlook
We’re currently in a bullish compression, with higher lows forming against the resistance area of $365. If $280 holds and the price continues to grind within this wedge, it sets up a volatility breakout scenario.
The breakout level to watch is $335. A daily close above that reopens $365. And beyond that, the resistance level is at $426.
My View
Tesla is compressing, both in price and narrative.
The long game is quietly coming into focus, where the risk/reward skews asymmetrically in favor of the upside.
This daily compression won’t last forever, and when it resolves, the move will likely be outsized.
