2025.05.28 gold analysis
This is the daily chart analysis for gold.
After an upward move, a broadening descending pattern is forming on the daily chart.
For the past four days, price has been supported by the 20-day moving average, with rebounds and pullbacks occurring repeatedly in similar zones. However, with the May 27th candle closing as a bearish candle, it’s wise to approach the market with the possibility of a 20MA retest and potential breakdown in mind.
If the 20MA breaks, there's a high probability price will decline to clear the left-hand blue demand zone. At that point, the Ichimoku Cloud support may turn into resistance.
Looking at the 2-hour chart, we can see a bounce from the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud.
The key turning point for gold seems to be a break below the cloud.
Currently, the important level to watch is around 3286.
If the cloud breaks and the low at 3277.8 is breached, the price could fall to the low 3200s or even down to the 3100s.
From a bullish perspective, a break above the descending resistance trendline and 3366.5 would be needed to shift the view to bullish.
If that trendline is broken, it would signal a breakout from the descending broadening pattern, and a move up to around the 3500 level — where the pattern initially started — could be targeted.
Conclusion
For now, a bearish approach seems appropriate. A breakdown of the daily 20MA could lead to a sharp drop, and its timing is uncertain.
A bullish setup is still premature. It’s better to wait for the descending broadening pattern to be invalidated before considering a long position. The pattern still favors the downside.
