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GDF1! trade ideas

Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd. The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish. Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!
by RT_Money
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. This selling is bonkers tbh. It’s so unbelievably rare that markets have such a strong rally and do not respect the trend line at all at such important prices like 2700 and 2600. A bounce is overdue but man, being bullish on Gold has not paid for more than 2 weeks. 2570 is a bad spot to trade. We can easily test down to 2500 before we see a bigger bounce. Can’t be anything but neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable. current market cycle: Bull trend on the brink of being over, either bulls turn hard and go above 2600 or 2400 awaits. It’s possible that we have already transitioned into a trading range and the ath 2801 will be the top of it. key levels: 2500 - 2800 bull case: Right at the weekly 20ema, which has been bought for over a year. Also retested the July high, which was previous resistance for 5 months until the market finally broke strongly above it. And also trading at the lower bull trend line which started in February. Those are more than enough perfect reasons to buy this dip and I do expect bulls to try at least retesting 2620 early next week and likely the current bear trend line around 2650. The 4h 20ema has been resistance since the selling began and once bulls conquer it again, we could see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears know the selling is climactic and a proper bounce is overdue. Can they get 2500 before we get 2650 is the biggest question imo and as always, I don’t have a crystal ball. I will see if 2560 continues to be support on Monday and if we can break above 2580, which was been big resistance on Friday. Bears want to stay below 2600 and the longer they can, the less aggressive the bulls will be. 4h 20ema was resistance for the whole move down and until claimed, it continues to be. Invalidation is above 2630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. → Last Sunday we traded 2694 and now we are at 2570. Bad outlook. Bears were much stronger than expected. short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted possible bear trend lines and deleted closed bull gap.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold11.14.24 yesterday I did a video on gold and I told you that gold would probably find a reversal pattern and go higher today. so far it has done that. I decided to show you what a stop would be so that you realize that I'm using about an $800 Stop which is not a small amount of money for people who are beginning to trade. this is important because I can get stopped out of the market on a small stop of $800 and then the market turns around and goes 1000 of dollars higher. but I am still going to have a small stop even if I get stopped out and if the market moves in a certain way I'll get back in for the same trade but it'll be on a new trigger and I'm not going to worry about the fact that I stopped myself out a little early. I decided to open up a new chart on gold and then I proceeded to tell you about how I use extensions in conjunction with 2 bar reversals. please spend some time looking at this and draw these patterns on your software. I decided to use a new chart to show you what happens in markets that will find you the trigger which is a long trade for me on this example.... and what to do when the market isn't quite ready to go in your direction and how you can exit the market.... and you might even be able to do it before it hits your initial stop so you might lose less than $800 but you're out of the market. the market does a bear flag.... you get out with some minor loss or Breakeven.... and then the market finds buyers using an extension..... and now you know this may be the time you get into the market.... and then you look for a two-bar reversal going in your direction Which is higher on this example. what I didn't tell you is that sometimes the market can give you two bear Flags and then on the third attempt after you've had two losses the market reverses and makes a huge move higher....... gold is one of those markets from my experience. I actually posted on that several years back and I'm too lazy to find it but it's there. A couple of years ago my two students didn't understand how to get into a market and manage the risk... to my liking.... so I decided to use a two-bar reversal because much of the time it's a two day reversal but it gives you a very clean signal. up until that time I could look at the market from my experience and know what it looked like but I couldn't convey it to my two students so it took me some time to figure out the 2 bar reversal... and there's another aspect of it that I would call opening price and I thought it was worth taking that approach because one of my students was up at the wee hours of the morning and not many cheating her time effectively and she couldn't see the patterns efficiently...... and so I tried show her a 2 bar reversal which I thought was easy but it took some time and this hypothetical trade on gold is an example.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo. comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 2600 - 2700 bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold. Invalidation is above 2630. short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Coffee soybeans oil gold11.13.24 the gold has moved down $20,000 from its high and will probably find buyers tomorrow. here there are no guarantees but it's coming to a Target area on the ABCD pattern and it doesn't have any 2 bar reversals to go higher so far today and so I'm guessing that the market will find a toolbar reversal after the end of today's market move you might even find the reversal later tonight after the market closes for a bit and then opens up later today.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold Futures exactly at mid channel support. Gold futures are exactly at Mid-Channel Support for Gold Enthusiasts. Mother line support is already broken after head and shoulders formation in Gold. Gold Futures CMP is 75200. If Mid-Channel support 74436 (Major Support) is broken we can see gold fall to 73175 or even 71192 levels where Gold will come down to meet the Father line support of 200 days EMA. Resistances for gold on the upper side seem to be at 75836 (Major Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA). 76498, 77683 and 79K. Gold is looking little weak on charts and if Mid-Channel support is broken 74436 it will become vulnerable. To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
MCX:GOLD1!
by Happy_Candles_Investment
GOLD Swing SpeculationTechnical Analysis Overview: 1.Current Trend Context: • The breakdown from the ascending channel signals a shift in market sentiment from bullish to potentially bearish. This type of pattern breakdown can often lead to a corrective phase or a trend reversal. •The price has shown a bearish rejection, indicating sellers’ control at higher levels. This is confirmed by the volume spike during the recent decline. 2.Key Support and Resistance Levels: • Resistance Zone: The area around 76,000 to 76,746 serves as a key resistance zone after the breakdown. A price recovery to this zone may provide a swing short opportunity. • Support Levels: Immediate support is near 74,898 and further down near 68,237. Price behavior near these levels should be monitored for potential bounce trades. 3.Indicators: • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be diverging from the price, indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential for further downside. It is important to look out for RSI moving into oversold territory, which could signal a reversal or consolidation. • Moving Averages: If the price is trading below key moving averages (like the 20-day and 50-day), it suggests that the short-term and medium-term trends are bearish. 4.Volume Analysis: • The recent surge in volume during the breakdown suggests strong selling pressure, which is a bearish sign. Volume should be monitored during any pullback to assess the strength of potential recoveries. Swing Trading Strategy: 1.Bearish Swing Trade Setup: • Entry Point: Consider entering short on a bounce back towards the resistance zone around 76,000–76,746, especially if there is a bearish candlestick formation (like a bearish engulfing pattern or pin bar) on lower timeframes. • Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent highs or key resistance levels, e.g., above 76,746, to limit downside risk. • Target Levels: Aim for targets near the support levels, with a first target around 74,000 and a second target near 68,237 if the downward momentum continues. 2.Bullish Reversal Trade Setup: • Entry Point: If price approaches key support levels (e.g., 74,898) and shows signs of reversal (such as a bullish engulfing candle, hammer, or divergence in RSI), consider a swing long trade. • Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the recent swing low, or slightly below the identified support level to manage risk. • Target Levels: Aim for a target near the resistance zones around 76,000–76,746. Additional targets can be adjusted based on the strength of the reversal. 3. Risk Management: • Always maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., at least 1:2). • Utilize trailing stops if the trade moves favorably to lock in profits. Additional Considerations: • Macro Factors: Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Consider these factors alongside technical analysis. • Timeframe Alignment: Since this is a swing trade, focus on daily and 4-hour charts for entries and exits. • Market Sentiment: Watch for shifts in broader market sentiment that may affect gold’s safe-haven status. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to conduct your own research, assess your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. The information provided here is based on technical chart patterns and market trends and is subject to change due to market conditions or unforeseen events.
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by tintinhawk
Understanding Gold Panic Selling Reactions BetterThis video is designed to help you better understand how Gold works as a hedge instrument and how to attempt to measure Panic Selling phases in Precious Metals. Metals offer an incredible opportunity when Panic Selling hits. But it can also present some very real risks because of price volatility. Panic selling in the markets is usually an event-driven sell-off in almost all markets (including metals). This type of selling is usually related to traders pulling assets (CASH) away from all market sectors because of some crisis or geopolitical event. It is a way for traders to react to the fear of the event while sometimes ignoring how metals will react to the future revaluation event. Yet, who wants to hold Gold when it may fall 8.5% to 15% throughout this panic selling process? If you learn how to spot the base/bottom efficiently (using my Excess Phase Peak patterns), you'll be able to pinpoint some incredible opportunities in metals. I hope this video helps you to understand exactly how these Panic Selling events unfold - and lear to spot/trade them more efficiently. The reality of the current market environment is that the Trump win is the event (call it a crisis or not - I don't care). This event is causing markets to revalue current asset classes (notice the strength of the US Dollar since Election Day). I believe this revaluation event is nearly over and prices will begin to adjust into what I'm calling my "Anomaly Event" - where price levels settle back into a reversion (normal) type of contraction event before moving into a late-stage Santa Rally. If I'm right, we'll see a base/bottom in metals happen after November 15-19, 2024. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Gold in weekly chartHello guys This is my last analysis. I hope all of you have found your way in this tricky market and for now I just want to show you how XAU will fluctuate in the next weeks. I am not 100 percent sure if wave (iv) has started or not but if it has started then all swing traders should be more careful about this corrective pattern(wave 4th). According to fundamental news and war and peace rumours around the world, a 4 wave patter makes sense. Be safe and Happy my friends
COMEX:GC1!
by AMA_FX
5
11/12/2024 GOLD daily and hourly. Watch 2626 price reaction.Oct 31 hourly sell signal hit, daily chart has just targeted at 2800. continued push down has not put price below Daily sell line. 2624. I will be playing continued downside moves, while also watching for a CHOC. However--->>A hourly buy point 2656 and daily buy point of 2652 is extremely likely to hit, since lots of orders will be sitting there. Hourly charts needs to hold above 2626 first. Watch 2626 price reaction.... will buyers take over and hold, or will sellers hold and push to new lows.
COMEX:GC1!
by dnelsonsp
Gold soybean oil Monday Friday I posted that the goal was likely to go lower because the market Gap lower and even though the market went higher from its low it couldn't close the gap and that tells me that the markets likely to go to new lows even though it might temporarily shows some buying Behavior. that's what it did and it went even a few $1000 lower since the close of Friday and it still might go lower since there's no evidence of buyers even though the market is at a support resistance line. I think the unrealized drawdown from the high is 20,000 or so dollars and that does not make this Market bearish and if it goes lower as I suspect it will go lower.the market is Trading with significant volatility and expansion and that means the market is going to have bigger moves when it moves higher and bigger moves when it moves lower compared to markets that have very little volatility and very small range. I did not address this in the video because the video was on the laborious side.... sorry about that. it satis support resistance line, it has not closed an important Gap lower.... so it could go higher or lower but I think it's probably going to go lower. and a good portion of that analysis is that gold has been so bullish for a significant. Of time..... I think the sellers are ultimately going to push this a little bit lower and this can be very profitable for the smart money because the market is going to take out some of the late buyers who like to trade all-time highs which is a very difficult way to make money because this pattern suggests that a lot of people who were break out buyers are in trouble with their long trades because they got in to late. now if you have a lot of money and you think the markets going to find buyers and make new highs... maybe you can hold out and maintain your long position but if you got into this Market on the Breakout move higher and you're down $25,000 per contract because you were just too late.... it just think how you're going to feel if it goes down another $25,000 before it starts turning and going higher
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
5
Press Release - New Wyckoff VSA System for TradingView LaunchedIn this short video, Author and Trader, Gavin Holmes, announces the official launch of the new TradeToWin Pro \v1 software for Tradingview explaining one of the new set ups, called Upthrust with No Demand confirmed after Professional Selling in the background. In the book, "Trades About To Happen" by the late David Weis, the description of a change in market behaviour is discussed, and our new pro version looks for exactly that at the live bar as it unfolds using multiple time frames. Any questions email LAURA@TRADEGUIDER.COM or TRADEGUIDER@OUTLOOK.COM
COMEX:GC1!Short
by gavinh10277
Why Gold Could See a 15% Correction Before the Next RallyGold, sitting at around $2,700, boasts an impressive 32.1% YTD performance. However, we're anticipating a significant 10-15% correction from current levels. This past week's market dynamics are telling: the Russell 2000 surged 8.57%, $500B flowed into crypto markets signaling renewed risk appetite, while gold recorded its steepest weekly drop (-1.98%) since May 2024. While these factors shape our near-term bearish outlook, persistent economic risks reinforce our long-term bullish stance on gold for the next couple of years.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Flow-Trade