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TGF1! trade ideas

GOLD Begins Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut SpeculationsGold prices have initiated a downside movement during the early European session on Monday. Market participants appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a potential tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Our analysis indicates that the price is currently within a supply area, showing a rebound on the daily timeframe. Commercial traders remain bearish on gold, while retail traders are holding bullish positions. Despite not having all the confirmations, we anticipate a possible drop in gold prices towards the previous demand area. The prevailing market sentiment suggests a potential for gold to continue its downward trajectory. Moreover, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. This expectation is preventing the US Dollar (USD) from capitalizing on its modest recovery from a three-month low, adding another layer of support for the USD-denominated gold price. Typically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby boosting its appeal. As the Fed's monetary policy outlook continues to evolve, the anticipation of rate cuts is likely to influence gold prices further. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions, along with broader market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping the future price movements of gold. In conclusion, with the early signs of a downtrend in gold prices and the market's conviction about impending Fed rate cuts, we are poised to see continued volatility. The current supply area and the bearish sentiment among commercial traders support the case for a potential decline towards the previous demand area. Investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by FOREXN1
4
mgc1My external Structure 15min Time Frame is Bullish (buys), my internal structure within my range was bearish (sells) as it was in the pulling back phase, we can now see that the pullback is over as we now have a CHOCH, (Change of Character), so now external and internal order flow is Bullish (buys) we can now look at LTF (Lower Time Frame) which will be the 1 minute for entry. However I want price to reach our AOI (Area of Interest) which is the Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) just below the LQ (Liquidity Sweep) once we get abit of fuel in our system we will then look to enter after confirmations.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by Bentayga
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again. comment: Bears tried to bring it below the daily 20ema and failed again. Bulls got another smaller higher high which was also a perfect breakout, retest and long again. So bulls are in full control but they are also not very strong or the market would not pull back each time after 1-2 good looking bull bars. Same reasoning as last week. Can bulls print a higher high or will this become a right shoulder? Probably the latter. Bulls are at 2 good resistance lines and buying above 2400 has not been profitable for more than 2 days in this market ever. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480 key levels: 2300 - 2480 bull case: Bulls keeping it inside the bull wedge and channel and as long as we stay in them, it’s bullish af. Bulls are mostly buying dips and not highs, otherwise market would print more consecutive bull bars. Targets for the bulls are obvious, retesting 2477 or making a higher high. Invalidation is below 2370. bear case: Bears only need 2 consecutive bear bars to reverse the market to below 2350 again. They are selling new highs inside the channel/wedge and so far it was profitable at least for scalps. They want this leg up to become the right shoulder and finally break the neckline on the next leg down and get below 2300. Invalidation is above 2510. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above” → Last Sunday we traded 2397 and now we are at 2420. 23 points higher… I mean… That’s pretty neutral to me since we also traded 30 points lower during the week. short term: Bearish for a pullback at least to the lower bull trend line again where I expect bulls to buy it again. No opinion after that. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: Went long but cut it early. It’s not bullish enough to buy up here. Will only look for shorts once we break the bull trend line. Chart update: Adjusted the bull wedge and added bull channel with last recent highs but just minor things. Trading range price action and patterns are weak at best.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
Where next for Gold?Gold is tricky at the moment because it's uncoupled from traditional influencers, it is a form of currency and I think central banks buying gold as a possible hedge against any pending currency crises that might ensue either debasing the US$ or the problems the Japanese are facing with their currency woes. So I believe we push on higher but at a junction right now on whether we continue to correct a little more or continue the move higher, I have mapped out possible moves.
COMEX:GC1!
by MarkLangley
Strong buy signal for gold. Can now reach USD 10,000.Technical Analysis of the Gold Price The gold price is in a long-term rising trend (cf. monthly chart), and a further strong development is signaled for the gold price in the coming years within this rising trend. A new strong technical buy signal for gold has recently been triggered after a breakout from a very large right-angled triangle consolidation formation (period 2011 - 2024, cf. chart). According to this long-term positive trend that the gold price is moving within, and has done since back to 2002, a further rise in the gold price is now being signaled in the years ahead. There is now little technical resistance to a further rise in the gold price, and the potential is all the way up to around USD 10,000 for the gold price in the next 6-8 years (cf. chart). Gold can therefore still prove to be a good investment in the coming years as well. In the very short picture now, the gold price is consolidating within a rectangle consolidation formation, and between a technical support level around USD 2,270.00 and a resistance level around USD 2,440.00. There is also significant technical support for the gold price now around the 50-day moving average, which is currently around USD 2,340.00. A break up from this consolidation formation, and above the USD 2,440 level will trigger new positive technical signals for the gold price, and where there will then be little technical resistance further up. In the event of a break down from the aforementioned consolidation formation, and below the short-term support level which is around USD 2,340, a test of the support level down towards the 200-day moving average, which is currently around USD 2,150, will be signalled.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by StockCharts365
2
BRIC(S) by BRIC(S) Supporting GoldGold (August) / Silver (September) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2365.5, down 34.2 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 30.913, down 0.776 Gold and Silver were bludgeoned to start the week. One could argue they went too high, too fast during a holiday week. Although volume in Silver was nothing to write home about, volume in Gold on Friday hit the highest since the June roll on May 28th. Unfortunately, yesterday’s sell volume nearly matched this feat. One could also argue news that China did not add to its Gold reserves for the second month in a row was a sell trigger. However, price action largely held in the hours after the news broke, and India added 9 tons to its Gold reserves, the most in two years, topping the nearly 2 tons China added in April and the 5 tons it added in March. You have to go back to February, when China added 12 tons of Gold to its reserves to top India's purchases. In 2023, China added 225 tons to its Gold reserves, an average of 18.75 tons per month. We do believe that China is not done adding to its reserves, but the likely scenario is the PBOC is attempting not to drive prices while allowing other BRICS nations to accumulate at a faster rate. India increased its 2024 purchases by 32% in June. Fed Chair Powell visits Congress for his first of a two-day testimony at 9:00 am CT, before July CPI data is due Thursday. There is additional comments around that time from the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr and Treasury Secretary Yellen, but most interesting is Fed Governor Bowman due at 12:30 pm CT. She is known as the most hawkish voice at the Fed and it begs the question, is she planned to balance a more dovish Fed Chair Powell? Certainly, we would believe comments from Powell hold more weight. While price action finds itself on the backfoot this week, traders can lean into strong seasonality in the month of July, and that price action has so far had a constructive response to Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll whipsaw low. This aligns to create rare major four-star support in Gold at 2353.1-2358.3 and a series of major three-star supports in Silver detailed below. Still, we must reduce our more Bullish Bias given that overnight price action failed at yesterday’s scene of the crime. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 2374.8**, 2379.2-2381.8***, 2397.7-2401.5*** Pivot: 2371 Support: 2362.2-2365.5**, 2353.1-2358.3****, 2341.6-2343.7*** Silver (Sept) Resistance: 31.37-31.53***, 31.69-31.80***, 31.98** Pivot: 31.20-31.25 Support: 30.91-30.99***, 30.68-30.84***, 30.45-30.54***, 30.34**, 30.00-30.17**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GCQ2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
GC Long on Pullback to 2385Gold had a very nice couple of days last week to break out of the descending wedge. It has rejected off of the 2400 level twice now, but I see no change in news or market conditions that would affect it dramatically in the next 24 hours (though, you know, famous last words...) Gold loves to eat liquidity and then bounce. Currently there are large orders sitting at or just below 2385. I'm going to play a bounce off of this level to continue the pullback. Taking profit at 2394 (3:1 RR) because I'm not sure what it will do at the 2400 level again.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by SkyIsCalling
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks. comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again. On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480 key levels: 2300 - 2480 bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high. Invalidation is above 2510. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.” → Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460. Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold Bullish 6 Year OutlookPast chart history shows gold price went into a bear market from 1980 to early 2000's and again in 2011 to 2020. Currently, we are trading in the bull cycle which lasts on average 9 to 10 years. Analysts, projected a price of gold to hit 2500 by the end of this and we seem to be right on track. Price is trading inside of a bull flag where buyers and sellers are repositioning themselves. What will drive the price of gold higher by the end of this year? What about the year after that and so on? Looking back further on the weekly chart a cup and handle technical pattern is breaking out. Projected price of this breakout caps out at around 3010. Will be interesting to see if and how the price action of this commodity will reach 3k by 2030.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by supertokki52
GC/Gold 1H Buy Idea 6/15/24Price has broken the trendline and has now retested on the other side with a hammer forming as the market closed. Looking for price to continue bullish into next week. Keep in mind that price could very well break below the trendline again to form a M with the double top that is possibly forming as well. BUT I'm leaning more towards the buy because of price currently coming to the 1/4H Highs from 6/12/24 **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
COMEX:GC1!Long
by cecedidit
US Dollar Bearish So can the HOUSE GO LONG on GOLD now...?COMEX:GC1! 11 When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put the ways of childhood behind me. -1 Corinthians 13:11 4th of JULY Narrative I am creating on here on GOLD.... As the US Dollar continues to perform Bearish on the HTF's we could possibly catch a LONG Play on GOLD... I have given a well detailed video here on why I believe we could be going LONG!! ***In order for me to enter the Market LONG... I need to see the break and close above the 15m CHoCh level ($2370.5) with confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N below.... This is the only way I'll enter the market LONG and targeting the unmitigated 4Hr indecision candle above.... 1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TreyHighPwr