GOLD BUT OPPORTUNITYThe price has reached the bottom of the channel,
and has reached its breakeven
a great support area
To increase the percentage , entr with Signal Bar Key bar
Tp1: 2.800
Tp2: 2.820
PS : 2725
COMEX:GC1!
TGF1! trade ideas
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. Bears got a minor pullback from the ath but only printed 1 decent bear bar before disappointment again. 2720 is probably next big support and I see the market rather moving sideways and retesting the highs before a bigger move down and a break of the bull trend line.
Quote from last week:
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
current market cycle: bull trend but it’s getting weaker and we could already be in a trading range 2700-2800.
key levels: 2700 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want this to stay above the previous support 2720 and move sideways between 2720 and 2800. It would show great strength if they would not let the market test down to the bull trend line and move sideways instead. If they do this for a couple more days, bears will give up and try again around 2800. For now I don’t see bulls breaking 2800 again, since the rally was very climactic over the past months.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears finally printed some decent bear bars on the 4h chart and they want a second leg down to test the bull trend line around 2700. There we can expect some sideways movement and a battle for the big round number. Until it is clearly broken, I favor the bulls to continue sideways to up again and that 2700 is support.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2754 and now we are at 2749. Perfect outlook, 2801 was hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you made some.
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2700 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential two legged correction down to 2700
GOLD BUT OPPORTUNITYThe price has reached the bottom of the channel,
and has reached its breakeven
a great support point
To increase the percentage , entr with Signal Bar Key bar
Tp1: 2.800
Tp2: 2.820
PS : 2725 COMEX:GC1!
$3200 targetLast month saw a mostly engulfed candle for #gold futures.
I've just noticed that gold likes like 50% moves at a time during bull markets 👍.
Gold's potential to push higher todayGold's potential to push higher today can be attributed to a few converging factors despite recent volatility. The metal saw significant downside pressure yesterday, likely due to profit-taking after recent highs, yet it remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Notably, tensions in the Middle East continue to attract investors to gold as a hedge, providing support amid concerns of an escalation in conflict
KITCO
KITCO
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Another factor involves broader financial market conditions. The dollar remains strong, which often puts pressure on gold, but the likelihood of more dovish moves from the Federal Reserve in the coming months is supporting the metal’s upward trajectory. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect continued central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, alongside possible Fed rate cuts, which could sustain demand for gold as a hedge against fiat currency volatility
GOLDMAN SACHS
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Given these dynamics, today’s upward movement in gold could be seen as a response to both immediate geopolitical fears and a continued expectation of supportive monetary policy, potentially leading gold toward further gains in the near term.
11/1/2024. GOLD key areaDaily and hourly chart (left).
The daily push higher is in jeopardy, key areas on 1 hour chart failed.
Hourly Buyside hold points: 2762, and 2765. Target of 2771 did hit this hour, but failed to hold both TGT and BKH points.
Sell stops at 2760 and 2758.
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
Trend change....book sell call profit---Intraday buy G+S...TREND CHANGE.....
Exit and.....Book FULL profit....in Gold and Silver sell call.....
Intraday call xauusd
Buy xauusd 2546.00-2551.00 range
tgt1 new high 2581.43
tgt2 2590
tgt3 2600....wait above tgt1....before us open today.....
Intraday call xagusd
Buy xagusd 29.630-29.730 range
tgt1 new high 30.430
tgt2 30.600
tgt3 31.000....wait above tgt1....before us open today.....
Gold Views as of nowI feel lile buying gold as of nowm consiering price action.
Zones as mensioned in the chart drawing.
intraday buy call gold and silver....book sell call profitTrend Change....Book full profit Sell call....
Intraday call....
Profit 11lakh per 10lot....
Buy Gold and Silver 73550-73600 range and 86740-86940 range
TGT1 74000+89000
TGT2 74200+90000
TGT3 74500+91000....wait tgt1 before 5pm....
Trade and buy max
MGC Trade Idea30m Supply has been printed from a reaction to 1h Supply. Sellers broke Demand and has deeper Demand to target. We will trade from premium Supply targeting 1:3, scaling off contracts throughout.
Gold Futures exactly at mid channel support. Gold futures are exactly at Mid-Channel Support for Gold Enthusiasts. Mother line support is already broken after head and shoulders formation in Gold. Gold Futures CMP is 75200. If Mid-Channel support 74436 (Major Support) is broken we can see gold fall to 73175 or even 71192 levels where Gold will come down to meet the Father line support of 200 days EMA. Resistances for gold on the upper side seem to be at 75836 (Major Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA). 76498, 77683 and 79K. Gold is looking little weak on charts and if Mid-Channel support is broken 74436 it will become vulnerable.
To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
11/12/2024 GOLD daily and hourly. Watch 2626 price reaction.Oct 31 hourly sell signal hit, daily chart has just targeted at 2800.
continued push down has not put price below Daily sell line. 2624.
I will be playing continued downside moves, while also watching for a CHOC.
However--->>A hourly buy point 2656 and daily buy point of 2652 is extremely likely to hit, since lots of orders will be sitting there. Hourly charts needs to hold above 2626 first. Watch 2626 price reaction.... will buyers take over and hold, or will sellers hold and push to new lows.
MGC Short 11/7/2024MGC is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ. Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and close to daily DZ.
BigAskMagnet Institute: The Case for Going Long on Gold FuturesAt BigAskMagnet Institute, we strongly advocate for a long-only approach to gold futures in the current market. Here's why:
1. Fundamental Drivers:
Inflation and Currency Risks: Persistently high inflation and weakening currencies are solidifying gold’s position as a hedge.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions are fueling demand for safe-haven assets, with gold leading the charge.
2. Technical Strength:
Recent price action confirms a strong bullish trend, breaking through critical resistance levels at .
BigAskMagnet Institute anticipates further upside potential, with targets at .
3. Long-Only Strategy Benefits:
Gold’s long-term value proposition makes short positions riskier in this environment.
BigAskMagnet Institute recommends focusing solely on long entries, using pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Risk Management Tip: Place stop-losses strategically below key support levels to safeguard your position while allowing for market fluctuations.
Gold remains a strong performer in turbulent times, and a long-only strategy ensures traders stay aligned with the dominant trend.
Time to Buy More Gold Futures ContractsAt BigAskMagnet Institute, we believe the time is ripe to increase exposure to gold futures. The precious metal has been demonstrating strong bullish potential, driven by key macroeconomic factors such as rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and dovish central bank policies.
Key Points:
Fundamental Factors: Gold is regaining its status as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Recent price action shows a breakout above , with the next target at . Volume confirms the bullish trend.
Risk Management: Suggested stop-loss at to mitigate potential downside risks.
Gold futures offer a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the current market environment. BigAskMagnet Institute is here to guide you in navigating these golden opportunities.
Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI)The Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI) is an advanced version of the traditional Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) that adapts to market conditions by using dynamic volatility and volume thresholds. It improves volume analysis by reducing false signals in low-volatility environments and adjusting sensitivity during high-volatility periods.
Key features include:
Dynamic volatility cutoff using ATR to adjust sensitivity based on market conditions.
Adaptive volume cap that adjusts to the asset’s average volume, avoiding skewed signals.
Customizable smoothing methods with options for EMA or SMA.
Improved noise filtering, making it more reliable in sideways or low-volume markets.
The AVFI helps identify trend strength, volume-driven price movements, and potential reversals, offering a more accurate and adaptable tool for traders.
MGC Long 11/6/2024MGC is in a downtrend. Price is testing daily DZ (blue box). Placed a long position in HV DZ. Taking half risk because it is a countertrend trade. Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and HV SZ.
GoldAs of November 7, 2024, gold prices have experienced significant volatility, influenced by various global economic and geopolitical factors.
Current Price Levels:
Gold is trading around $2,734.79 per ounce, slightly below its recent peak of $2,790.15 reached on October 31, 2024. (Reuters)
Technical Analysis:
• Support Levels: Immediate support is observed at $2,608.30, with stronger support around $2,468.20. (MarketScreener)
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is near the recent high of $2,790.15. (Reuters)
• Moving Averages: Gold is trading above its 13, 48, and 200-day EMAs, indicating a sustained bullish trend. (Economies)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 58.93, suggesting mild bullish momentum without being overbought. (Moneycontrol)
Fundamental Factors:
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. (Reuters)
• U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support higher gold prices. (Reuters)
• Central Bank Demand: Robust purchases by central banks have bolstered gold demand. (JPMorgan)
Outlook:
Analysts predict that gold prices could rise to $2,600 or $2,700 by the end of the year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. (Reuters)
Conclusion:
Gold’s technical indicators and fundamental factors suggest a continued bullish trend. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and central bank policies, as these will significantly influence gold’s trajectory in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
MGC Short 11/3/2024MGC is in a downtrend in 4hr chart with a cross below, retest and follow through (FT). Placed a short position in 1hr HV confluence SZ. Taking half risk because daily and 4hr trends don't match. Also, price is rallying from daily DZ (Blue box). Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MGC Long 10/29/2024MGC is in an strong uptrend. Made ATH. Placing a long position in 1hr HV DZ far away from MA. Hence, taking half risk. Risk= $124. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
Scenario GOLD levels update This view of gold actually somehow confirms that I should be on the good side of the market, outside of the original analysis, we could see a false breakout from which the price consolidated around the zone marked by me, which may show us a head-and-shoulders formation, which may be followed by a correction against this formation
Quick Short Scalp TradeI'm targeting a more risky liquidity however I moved TP a bit lower. If trendline hits and keeps falling great if not and it hits that SSL "red line" then reacts to shoot up i will close trade in some profit. Lets see. I have already entered before posting this.
Also this was done on 1 min TF but have to post this as 15min lol
