Thought on US30Hello. I am the forescastah. We are all in some form our fashion. We try to use ours minds to predict price movement. Here are some of my thought on US30 today as we trade the third day of the world cup of Trading.
UDF1! trade ideas
Rally Would Setup High RR Short.Markets have been selling hard recently. Done well with shorts but starting to feel it's a bit too easy.
Would be much more comfortable shorting into a rally.
This may or may not come, but at this point we can prep to trade momentum setups long if the bear move fails and then plan the retracement trade.
YM - Weekly Range AttackWe kept it short and sweet last week and my short term projections delivered just before reversing to current price now @ 40,140.
YM trading back into the median of the weekly range is still considered as a healthy retracement in a overll bull market.
It's also in-line with ES short term shorts.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dow Jones YM Weekly Day Trading Gameplan AprilUsing the teal line as the mean, every time price moves roughly 650 ticks above the mean, it snaps back.
We are pushing off the mean now and I believe will continue bullish up to 40,500 which is roughly 650 ticks above the mean.
Monday I expect a bullish continuation higher.
After the move is complete, I will be looking for the revert back to the mean. I don't know if it will move below the mean or not.
The move below the mean will be able to close that gap to the downside
The average range of a monthly candle is roughly 2500 ticks from high to low
Dow Jones Bullish Mean Reverting The Hourly Chart's 200sma is the same as the Daily Chart's 21ema
Price is mean reverting back and forth between the mean
Price is above the Hourly 200sma/ Daily 21ema, Bullish
Price does not respect the Hourly 21ema and trades back and forth between it.
The Hourly 21ema is the same as the 5 Minute's 200sma
The 5 Minute mean reverting back and forth above the Hourly 200sma. It seems to me that each move in the extreme position should not be trusted
I need to figure out when a move will continue with the 5 minute 21ema or will mean revert back to the 5 Minute 200sma.
YM1! - Keeping It Short, Sweet & SimpleSimilar to ES1!, I am expecting next week to be forgiving as we have seen a huge bullish run to 40316 without a retracement to the weekly EQ @ 39703 which I do believe is a strong possibility.
Any major movements, I will update this analysis.
39767 is t1
39703 is t2
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
YM Wednesday Big Sell Off Day? Fill In Gap At 39,150? 600 ticksA couple of pieces of information that I think will cause a sell off down to 39,150
A declining Hourly 21ema
A gap at 39,150
A rising 200sma that has been poked through last two times
Ramped volume from the FOMC
600 ticks seems really excessive for one session. Maybe two sessions.
Do I go for the throat and hold for a massive trade or do I take the base hit 2 to 1?
I don't want to be greedy but I also don't want to leave money on the table.
Maybe I will go in the middle just watch each hourly candle and close it when I see a fat red candle exhausting itself
Micro DOW Late Night Trade Setup4 hour chart: trend, cycle, and momentum are all up.
1 hour chart CCI is above +100 and the trend is up
15 min chart: trend is up and support is at the 50 SMA this is also the 50 SMA on the 1 hour chart
1 hour demand zone RBR formation
$200 risk with 5 contracts
YM Dow Jones In State 4 Pullback to Mean (Bullish Position)The market only moves from narrow to wide states and repeats. Currently, the market is in state 4 out of the 5 states.
State 1: Narrow state before the move higher ( Narrow )
State 2: The trending move higher ( Trending )
State 3: The expanded move away from the mean ( Wide )
State 4: The reversion back down to the mean ( Trending )
State 5: The narrow state again prepping for the next move higher ( Narrow )
The past 6 times the market has been in its pullback state 4 phase, the hourly 21ema has been at a 34-53 degree angle declining
The hourly chart is in positive position due to it being above the 200sma and trending bullish
Improving Market Cycles and StagesI need to get better at
1. Identifying what state the market is in
2. What number 1-5 in the cycle it is in
3. Avoiding numbers 1,3,5
4. Only trading in cycles 2 and 4
The market only goes between narrow states and wide states
My strategy is the 21ema and the 200sma
I use the 5 minute, the 15 minute and the 1 hour timeframe for Intra Day Trading
I tend to use 50 tick stops and 100 tick targets for a 2:1 most of the time
My biggest issue is not trading in the direction of the 21ema
Dow Jones Week 12 Day Trading Gameplan Hourly AnalysisLooking at the week ahead on the hourly chart, the first thing I notice is that the hourly 21ema is now trending down and declining. The hourly 200sma looks to remain flat and a cross is set to happen later in the week.
I am looking for a pullback into the declining 21ema, whether it stalls right at it or pops above it by a little bit.
I see two spots on the downside where stops are located. One at March 5th and 11th at 38,900 and the second at February 21st at 38,800. Logically if it will take out the first then the second is just right there as well.
The average true range of a weekly movement is between 850-1000 points on the Dow.
Since the 5 minute 200 is the same as the hourly 21, I will be looking for sells under both.
I expect the 5 minute 200 to be choppy and price will go back and forth between it. I will sell any move above it and buy if extended below it. I will use the 200sma on the 5 minute as the mean to revert back to.
On the 15 minute chart, price has been trending down off of a declining 15 minute 21ema and has created a cross on Friday. Any move up to the flat 200 or a peak above will get sold into. Price will have to slice through it to the upside by a large amount in order to become more bullish
In summary, I will be only looking for shorts and will sell into any pullback higher unless I see a strong bull move higher to slice through that 15 minute 200sma. Since price is in a negative state as indicated by below the declining 21 and under a declining 200, I will be giving the benefit of the doubt to a down trend and only look to sell.
YM - Volatile Week My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Why i expect Dow Jones to drop with Powell todayTodays the interest rate decision.
Powell already signaled, that we will not cut rates too early (they already did that in 1970 and the inflation spiked then).
With lasts weeks Consumer Price Index Inflation data (0.1% higher then expected), FED will most likely NOT CUT the interest rate today.
Stocks will react on that by selling off (because interest rate stays high). I estimate the same picture as we had last time. A strong sell off over 2-3 hours. Then market settles and the bullish investors come back with buy opportunitys.
I will look for buy trades today if any opportunitys occur.
The 1 Hour Chart ETH is the same as the 15 Minute RTH ChartThe 1 hour time frame on the ETH chart is identical to the 15 minute chart on the RTH session chart.
I prefer the RTH session chart due to the cleanliness of the price action.
15 Minute RTH
1 Hour ETH
YM - Big Dog Leading The PackYM has been frontrunning the market, with all-time highs printing on the 23rd of Feb 24 and this Fridays close being a short term high @$39,008.
$38,399 is where my interest is drawn to with $38,323 being the intermediate EQ which I aim to target.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dow Jones Retreating To Bottom Of Range Looking For Support 38KI see the start of a down move over the course of the next 6-8 weeks to drift down to the bottom of the range in order to achieve a couple of objectives.
1. Fill the Gap from January 19th
2. Hit all the stops from Longs along the way
3. Hit the 1X range expansion of the High/Low from Feb 23rd- Mar 5th
I am bullish over the next decade but right now it looks like a 4% decline is necessary for the consolidation before we start heading higher into the 40,000s
It will give the monthly 21ema a chance to catch up and the bottom low will be a bounce off the monthly 21ema
My ultimate price target is 115,000 in 2035
YM Range Bound Mean Reversion StrategiesI have been getting my behind kicked the last two months due to this range bound market.
Something that I just now noticed is that on the hourly, the 21ema (purple line) is the same exact average as the 5 minute's 200sma. They are one and the same.
Since price is not respecting the hourly's 21ema, then logically, it will not respect the 5 minute's 200sma and henceforth price will oscillate back and forth around that mean price.
The 2 minute chart's 525 period moving average is the one and same of both the 5 minute's 200sma and the hourly's 21ema. All three are the same exact moving average and price always finds its way back to it.
There have been great mean reversion trades back to the hourly 21ema that I have been missing because I have been employing trend following systems to this market and failing.
Each one of these great mean reversion day trades have been over 100 ticks on the Dow
YM Dow Jones another leg up for 40kJust like January 19th how price closed above the 21ema after a couple of down/sideways days, it went on to continue the bull trend.
Today did the same thing. Closed above the 21 after a couple of down/sideways days.
After placing a trendline at the exact 50% mark of today, I believe price should stay above it and the 21ema IF the bullish trend is to continue.
The obvious target that is screaming at me is the 40,000
Indices:🔴Is it the major market structure shift?🔴
Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend.
The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity.
After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the price activates the bearish breaker block and the breaker can act as a strong resistance and pull the price down.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/03/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
YM Dow Jones Friday the 8th GameplanI see two gaps that need to be filled. Will they get filled? I don't know. I am leaning bullish. I can see the market bumping up against the 200sma one more time before falling down to fill the gap on the bottom. Then a bullish climb higher to fill the gap higher?
Or perhaps it doesn't fill the gap on the upside yet on Friday and will wait for Monday or Tuesday?
I will take it bar by bar and see what is in store.
YM 3 Day Pattern Set UpI found an interesting pattern that has happened 3 times so far.
A sell off day
A gap up and fill
A second gap up and fill. Sometimes doesn't fill, just continues bullish
First Pattern
Second Pattern
Third Pattern
This could mean nothing but it was something I felt sharing
Sell YM (DOW JONES FUTURES)Hello,
We have a fantastic signal to sell YM on 15min chart with a target of 38455$ in couple of hours,
Ibrouri
YM - Unruly Dow 30Unlike ES and NQ, YM has failed to create a higher high on the daily timeframe suggesting that if we were to see some form of a retracement, YM could be the first mover.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
