YMThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes
UDF1! trade ideas
Week 6 Day Trading Gameplan (Range Bound Bullish Bias)Still sticking with the bullish trend on the short term ( 1 Hour ), I will be waiting for pullbacks into my support zones of 1 & 2 areas. The 1 hour's 200sma is flat which tells me range. Whether price works the low or the high first is key.
My stops are always 40 ticks and targets are 85 ticks.
Last week I only took 3 trades. 2 winners and 1 loser.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 21ema is pointing straight down and there is distance between the 21ema and the flat 200sma.
My Monday play IF set up will be a sell continuation pulling back to the declining 21ema in a bear flag. Ok if it pops above the 21ema by a bit.
My Heavenly Book ( YM ) E-mini Dow Jones ($5) futures are derivative contracts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index as an underlying asset. These mini futures are electronically traded and give investors exposure to the US stock market through 30 US blue-chip companies, but they represent only a portion ($5) of standard Dow Jones futures, which makes them more accessible. Since these are still futures, traders use them to hedge their stock portfolios against risks that are inevitable in markets.
7 More Bullish Days Before The Expected Sell OffI am expecting another 7 trading days of bullishness to reach its measured move of 39,275 area.
Price is bumping its head up above the 3-month chart's trend channel in this new secular bear market. This whole rally was a bearish rising wedge on the monthly chart. Before it can rally the whole 100% like I expect in 2026, it needs order flow and the slight pullback in 2022 just wasn't enough. It needs more shorts for the squeeze.
My target is 24,500 and the rising monthly 200sma. The rising monthly 200sma is lining up perfectly with the third trend channel's bottom. There is the Fourth channel bottom for the upcoming 2029's 48% sell off that I don't believe anyone will see coming.
2026-2029 will be extremely bullish and will wipe out this 37% sell off. It will also be used as fuel and order flow for that 48% sell off in 2029.
What is a telling piece of evidence is the monthly's 21ema is flat as a pancake and is not being respected = range. This tells me that any pops above it will get sold into. Same setup I use on the 5 minute.
The Daily 200sma is also flat and not respected. Not indicative of a bullish trending market. I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the range and not that it is now going to trend.
Notice the Weekly's 21ema is chopping around right through the middle of price? Not trending AT ALL. I am expecting it to continue in this fashion.
I am just reading what price is telling me and the evidence is clearly here for a range sell high play down to the bottom of the range. I am not seeing bullishness yet.
Dow Jones Getting closer to a sell signal soon. February EngulfmNow that January monthly candle has closed, I am awaiting an engulfment candle. I will place a limit order sell under the low of the green body of January at 37,775 with my target down at 21,600 with the intent of adding more on the way down. I am planning on a 37% sell off and have been a broken record on this for months because I firmly believe this is the set up. I still think there is just a small amount of upside left.
The monthly 21ema is flat = range = Sell the pops above it
Monthly Bearish Rising Wedge hitting the top of the up channel
The monthly 200sma is rising and is far away = Counter trend sell to pullback to the monthly rising 200sma.
The trend is bullish long term but the 37% sell off is a counter trend sell/ pullback in an overall bullish market.
Once it hits 21,500 area, I will be buying for the bull rally up to 44,500 for a 110% bull run
At around 2029 at the highs of 44,500, I am expecting a massive 45% sell off down to 20,000
This will be the low for the rest of my lifetime, after which I am expecting Dow Jones to start shooting for 200,000
Next Price Movement My prediction for the next move of the market will be a drop of more than 3500 points and then move up to complete the scenario mentioned in the previous post.
The beginning of a bear market!Hi
My yesterday analysis had a mistake!!
The market will Drop and then go to Fake BrakeOut ATH and then Hello to bear market :)
DJIA SHORTshort djia as per the given levels shown in the zigzag waves , do remember to add proper stoploss that will be swing high + few more points - to avoid the hunting spikes .
The beginning of a bear market!This is my prediction of the market situation in the next few years...
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Remember this analysis to review it in the next few years.
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Hello bear market :)
YM Dow spike and channel pattern, Break of pattern = 37% dumpThe final push up in this spike and channel pattern. I don't know when it will resume the up move and from where. I also don't know what the top will be. I will trade the bearish break of this pattern. There is about 1000 points left to the upside.
I got in too early back on the 18th and will wait until it gets up to my levels.
Short Term Bullish until February 9th-15th
January FOMC probable no rate changes
Long Term Bearish
March FOMC possible rate cut/ Pivot = Dump
Statistics show price trading roughly 3% lower into the Fed Pivot
YM Bullflag Pull Back Into FOMC Bullish What I am seeing is a bull flag in a sideways range. It poked above and failed. Most likely pulling back into the half way point. Pulling back getting ready for the FOMC next Wednesday for a, more than likely, bullish FOMC. I believe we have one final push up before the 37% sell off down to 23,000.
I am currently short, notated by the orange line. I admit I got in too early and still am underwater. I am still 100% confident the sell off is around February 20th and will have to endure a bit more upside.
Dow Futures (YM) Pullback Should Find Support in 3, 7, 11 SwingShort Term view on Dow Futures suggests rally from 10.27.2023 low ended at 38113 as wave (3). Pullback in wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave W ended at 37470 and wave X ended at 38038. Wave Y lower ended at 37298 as the 1 hour chart below shows. This completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher in wave (5).
Internal subdivision of wave (5) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 37897 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37633. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 38157. Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 38061 and final leg wave ((v)) ended at 38302. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Expect Index to pullback in wave 2 in 7 swing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The first 3 swing lower is in progress and can reach 37731 – 37930 where wave ((w)) should end. Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((x)) before turning lower again in 3 waves to complete wave ((y)) of 2. As far as pivot at 37298 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
YM DOW JONES 8 Year Gameplan 2032 Buy At 20,000 Hold 200,000My personal gameplan on how I am tackling these sideways choppy markets.
First, I will sell this 37% sell off that is about to occur February 20th
Second, I will buy for the explosive short squeeze 60%, wait for the dip and buy off the rising wedge bottom for another 12,000 points
Third, I will sell the upcoming 49% sell off on year 2029.
Finally, the bottom will be in place at 20,000 in 2032 and I will be holding for next 15 years until DOW 200,000
The chart I am presenting is the weekly chart. I have the up channel drawn with 4 channel lines. The bottom channel line will line up with 2029's 49% sell off.
YM DOW JONES Final 6% Rally Before -37% Sell Off March TopThis is going to be a repeat of my prior post as I now have more up to date information on the 37% dump that is around the corner. It will be hard for me to thouroughly explain what it is that I am personally seeing but I will try.
First off, I am basing this entire thesis on 1969 as price action is lining up near identical. I first noticed this back in September of 2023. Here is a monthly chart of 1969.
Evidence:
Bearish rising wedge up at the top of the up channel
Rising monthly 200sma coinciding with the demand zone from the prior crash. 1962 and 2019 respectively.
The October "Low" that bounced off the minor price support of the 1962/2019 crash
A "bounce" of 15-20% off of the monthly 21ema at the bottom of the rising wedge during the last push up before the ultimate dump
Now onto the daily time frame:
Starting with 1969 with the big rip off the monthly 21ema
Now onto 2024 daily, notice the same wide separation of the daily's 21 and 200
From that rip off the monthly 21ema, in 1969 it was a 15% rally, pullback into daily 21ema then another 6% rally before that was all she wrote. Start of the down trend -37% sell off.
2024 rip off the monthly 21ema with a projected 20% rally followed by the same 6% rally at the top before it dumps
Thank you for being patient with my and me trying to explain what I am seeing. Feel free to leave your reply below. Am I seeing things? There seems to be too many similarities to fully ignore.
US30 Full AnalysisPrice Action:
It is time for the monthly price to get back to the mean reversal where the Weekly open/close is inside-bar (but broke the low). Price hovering around the inside-bar is prone to break on either side.
On the Daily structure, we have 3 days of Dojis, bearish engulfing followed by Gravestone Doji followed by two days of bearish doji and the price is moving in the channel.
I expect monthly/weekly price to test the baseline while price from daily and below timelines are already below the Baseline in TDI.
SK System:
After sustaining a recent high, the price is respecting the SK Levels.
My Bias is SHORT, if not SL and up, and shall look for the LONG.
NB: US30, NAS100, S&P have a correlated move but both NAS & S&P price action are very distinct from US30. Let us Observe :-)
YM Thursday Guess. Trying To Improve My Pre Game PlanAnything can happen tomorrow. I am only making this post as a personal skill development of trying to improve my strategy and try to figure out what the market tries to do. I may be completely wrong and I am ok with that. I will react to what the market does in the moment. This is mostly a thought experiment.
YM DOW Sell Set Up On 1 Hour RTH Chart Wednesday 17th JanI will be looking for a couple more green candles to rally into the declining hourly 21ema. I will keep raising up my sell limit order under the body of the highest green candle until a red candle eliminates it. The candle can rally past the 21ema by a bit and is still acceptable, in fact, preferable. This would "close" the gap and hit stops up high.
I will be placing a stop above the high of that bar and will be using a 125 point stop. My target is a fixed 2 to 1 or 250 points. It has room for 450 points down to the red support line but I don't care. I am only taking my 2 to 1.
Dropping down to the 15 minute, the rally would be into the declining 200sma, which should halt it in its tracks. Its ok if it pops above by a little bit
Dow Jones YM Week of January 15-19 Expected Range BoundI am expecting another choppy range week and will buy the lows, sell the highs. Will take it slow this week and try to avoid getting chopped up.
I am only going to allow 2-3 trades per day.
I am only going to allow 2 losses per day as Max daily loss
I am only going to allow 2 winners in a row as Max profit protection
I will only do 2:1 on every one of my trades and at the end of the week, add up my P/L stats.
I will try to shoot for 50-60% win rate.
10 trades at 2 to 1 at 50% win rate is 5% gain.
Buy mini dow 37750 limit if filled, stop at 37018, tgt is open Looking to buy mini Dow ahead/ right after CPI report with a 37750 limit
if filed, stop at 37018, tgt is open
YMCurrently YM is in an upward trend, but when it breaks the red average indicated by the blue arrow and enters the green zone, we open a buy deal.
YM weekly analysis Jan 15-19 2024Strong bullish trend.
We have buyside liquidity above old weeks highs.
Below the previous week low we have a FVG that’s not been tested yet.
At the Moment, the 20 SMA is the "Tell"Right now, many indexes are breaking under the 20 SMA, while the /ES and /NQ remain above it. I deal in probabilities. If the other indexes continue to stay under the 20 SMA, then the probability is the the ES and NQ will break under them.
