Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ closed higher, digesting the release of the CPI data. On the weekly chart, it faced resistance at the 5-week moving average, forming an upper wick. After a downtrend early this week, the market rebounded significantly. On the daily chart, the index rose to around the 20-day moving average but has yet to see the MACD cross above the signal line, making it premature to confirm a buying signal. Even if the uptrend continues, it would be prudent to wait for a golden cross in the MACD before committing to a buy position. Moreover, there is significant resistance from prior supply zones, making a sell strategy around higher levels valid.
On the 240-minute chart, as mentioned previously, a failed dead cross led to a rebound, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The MACD is trending upwards and diverging from the signal line. However, since the signal line is still below the zero line, a sideways consolidation phase may be necessary before a sustained move higher. Today, it is advisable to focus on range-bound trading within a box, managing risks carefully with sell strategies at higher levels.
OIL
Crude oil closed higher as it absorbed inventory data and the pipeline shutdown news. On the daily chart, it found support at the 5-day moving average and broke strongly above $78 (March futures), the upper boundary of the monthly chart. However, the sharp upward move has created significant gaps between the moving averages, suggesting the potential for a corrective phase today.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has triggered a sharp rise, but the MACD has not yet surpassed its previous high. A failure to rally further could create bearish divergence. A significant correction and support at previous resistance levels, such as the $74–$75 range, could present a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, profit-taking may dominate as the market digests the recent rally. A box range approach with buy strategies on dips and sell strategies at higher levels is recommended.
GOLD
Gold closed higher after digesting the CPI data. On the daily chart, both the MACD and the signal line have moved above the zero line, signaling a confirmed buy trend. Further upside is expected, as it has also broken above the resistance line of a triangular consolidation pattern. A buy-focused strategy remains valid.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal preceded continued gains. Should the MACD and signal line diverge further, this would increase confidence in the uptrend. Even if gold consolidates instead of continuing to rally, the signal line above the zero line indicates a neutral-to-positive outlook. Considering that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is showing signs of peaking and pulling back, gold’s strong upward trend is worth monitoring closely. As numerous data releases are expected today, stay cautious and trade wisely.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21325 / 21270 / 21190 / 21140
-Sell: 21440 / 21500 / 21550 / 21590
Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures)
-Buy: 78.10 / 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.30
-Sell: 79.70 / 80.10 / 80.80 / 81.30
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2717 / 2709 / 2700 / 2696 / 2690
-Sell: 2726 / 2732 / 2738 / 2745 / 2754
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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