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German DAX 40 Index

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GER40 trade ideas

Potential bearish drop?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 22,552.70 1st Support: 21,942.24 1st Resistance: 22,888.45 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Short
by ICmarkets
1
DAX extends drop to -500 points from ATHThe DAX hit a record high earlier in the day. Fast forward a few hours, it is now down 500 points from that high. A potential rebound may be on the cards, given how strong the trend has been. But this goes to show the markets go down as well as up. What caused the sell-off? Well, firstly it was US President Donald Trump raising the prospect of tariffs of up to 25% on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. Then, concerns rose about the peace process talks over Ukraine without Kyiv’s involvement. Trump has just posted THIS about Zelensky: Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back. Why didn’t Sleepy Joe Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us — We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation. On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is “MISSING.” He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden “like a fiddle.” A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the “gravy train” going. I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues... By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:GER40
by FOREXcom
DAX pullback from ATH, support at 22563Key Trading Level is at 22563 Support: 270 followed by 22140 and 21923 Resistance: 23200 followed by 23300 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:DE40
by TradeNation
“Rheinmetall Pushes DAX Higher“ but until When?. Trend Lines and Moving Averages: • Moving Averages (MA): Check the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. DAX is trading above these averages and the 50-day is above the 200-day, that generally indicates an upward trend. A crossover (where the 50-day falls below the 200-day) might suggest a shift to a bearish trend. Stay tuned!! • Trend Lines: Draw trend lines connecting recent highs & lows. An upward-sloping trend line suggests bullish momentum, Which, in reality triggers an alarm for shortterm buyers to start selling and waiting for a pull back to buy cheaper by waiting downward-sloping bearish pressure. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): • An RSI above 70 typically indicates that the asset might be overbought, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation.
FX:GER30Short
by Sal98
3
GER40 MACRO SET UPS MACRO-TRADING (WEEKLY) GER40 SETUP Overall Context Long-Term Trend & Technicals: The weekly trend remains positive, with price generally trading above major moving averages (e.g., 50-, 100-, 200-week). Technical indicators such as trend strength and momentum suggest sustained bullishness, though extended rallies can encounter profit-taking. Institutional & Macro Backdrop: Institutional leverage is elevated, reflecting strong engagement in risk assets. A late-cycle expansion globally, paired with moderating inflation, has thus far supported equities. Europe’s slower growth compared to the U.S. is a point of caution, but overall liquidity remains ample. Policy Environment: Major central banks have signaled a tilt toward easing, which may keep downward pressure on short-term rates. This backdrop, combined with a relatively stable yield environment, can bolster equity valuations if economic data remains supportive. A. PRIMARY (BIAS-ALIGNED) SETUP Rationale Builds on the established weekly uptrend, indicating that longer-term market participants view pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. Macro factors—including declining inflation and generally accommodative monetary policies—sustain the underlying bullish case. Execution Parameters Entry Triggers: A weekly close above a prior swing high, typically around 22,800–23,000, confirming continued bullish momentum. Alternatively, a buy-on-dip approach if price retraces to a major weekly support zone (e.g., 19,700–20,000) and subsequently forms a bullish reversal pattern. Stop-Loss Placement: Beneath ~19,500 on a weekly closing basis, providing a buffer under a key weekly order block or major moving averages. This helps avoid getting whipsawed by normal market fluctuations. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 23,850, reflecting a higher extension based on weekly chart projections. Second Target (Optional): Approximately 25,000, should bullish momentum continue and the market enter a more extended rally phase. Risk Management: Adopt smaller position sizes befitting multi-week holds, limiting exposure to 1–2% of total capital. Consider adding to positions (pyramiding) if price breaks into new highs and retests them successfully as support. Supporting Factors Institutional Trend Following: Large funds typically hold positions for weeks to months, providing steadier upward pressure if the macro environment remains favorable. Policy & Liquidity Tailwinds: Continued central bank easing and ample liquidity help sustain the higher timeframe uptrend, making deep corrections less likely unless a major shift in sentiment occurs. B. ALTERNATE (CONTRARY) SETUP Rationale Activated if the weekly structure convincingly breaks down—such as a decisive weekly close below 19,700, suggesting a reversal in long-term trend dynamics or a deeper correction. Could be driven by negative macro catalysts: a sudden rise in inflation, aggressive policy changes, or a significant geopolitical escalation. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: A weekly candle closes well below ~19,700, then fails to regain that level on a retest (now acting as resistance). Stop-Loss Placement: Above ~20,000, invalidating the short if price recovers into the prior trading range. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 18,000, tied to a historically significant weekly support area. Second Target (Optional): Near 17,000, if downside momentum strengthens and the market transitions into a sustained bearish phase. Risk Management: Keep total risk around 1–2% on this position. Remain prepared to exit swiftly if a false breakdown occurs and the market reclaims the broken support. Supporting Factors Macro Disruptions: A destabilizing shift—like a policy surprise, economic recession signals, or a global risk-off event—can rapidly deflate bullish sentiment. Institutional Unwinding: High leverage can exacerbate selling if funds de-risk en masse following a weekly close below major supports. KEY RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES Longer Holding Periods: Macro trades often span multiple weeks or months; ensure margin use and stops accommodate potentially large swings. Major Catalysts: Central bank statements, systemic geopolitical events, and global economic indicators can create sizable weekly gaps, requiring wider protective stops. Scaling & Exit Strategy: Consider partial profit-taking at the first target to lock in gains. For the remainder, a trailing stop can help capture further upside while limiting downside risk. CONCLUSION The macro (weekly-focused) GER40 setup outlines a primary bullish scenario aligned with a long-standing uptrend, as well as a clearly defined alternate plan should key support levels give way. By combining strategic entries near crucial technical zones with thorough risk management, macro traders can position themselves to capture major market trends while staying alert to potential regime shifts that could trigger a sustained decline.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
2
GER40 Medium Term Setups Medium-Term (Daily) GER40 – Analysis & Signals --- Market & Institutional Context Macro: Easing inflation and accommodative liquidity conditions continue to support equity markets. Europe’s slower growth vs. the U.S. means the GER40 can be more sensitive to negative local data. Institutional & Derivatives: Overall supportive flow, but hedging remains elevated. This environment can still present favorable swing opportunities, provided key supports hold. --- Primary (Bullish) Swing Setup Technical Rationale The daily chart shows higher highs and higher lows, sustained above major moving averages. Institutional sentiment, paired with macro tailwinds, suggests buying dips into established support levels or breakouts above recent swing highs. Entry Points Breakout Entry: A daily close above ~22,800 confirms continued bullish momentum. Pullback Entry: Bullish reversal signals off 21,700–21,900—a known demand zone/order block. Stop-Loss Beneath 21,700 to allow room below key daily support and avoid minor noise/whipsaws. Targets First Target (TP1): 23,200–23,300 (short-term extension) Second Target (TP2): 23,850, if bullish momentum persists Risk Management Risk 1–2% of account capital. Consider partial profit at TP1, move stops to breakeven on remaining position. --- Alternate (Bearish) Swing Setup Technical Rationale Engages if the GER40 breaks its bullish structure on the daily timeframe. Negative economic data or unexpected shifts in sentiment can accelerate selling if key supports give way. Entry Trigger A decisive daily close under ~21,700, followed by a failed retest of that zone (now acting as resistance). Stop-Loss Above 22,000, invalidating the short if price re-enters the previous range. Targets First Target (TP1): Around 21,000 Second Target (TP2): ~20,500 if downside momentum accelerates Risk Management 1–2% risk allocation. Scale out partial positions at TP1, tighten stops if the market recovers above broken support. --- Additional Risk Notes Overnight Events: Swing trades often span multiple days/weeks. Stay mindful of economic data releases, central bank decisions, and geopolitical news—any of which could create gaps. Institutional Hedging: Elevated put-buying may exacerbate downside once pivotal levels break. Trail & Scale: When price moves favorably, partial profit-taking and trailing stops can lock in gains while letting profits run. --- Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Make sure to conduct your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately. More detailed insights, including live trade management and ongoing macro commentary, are available in our premium channels.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
GER40 SHORT TERM SETUP. GER40 Overview & Signals Market & Institutional Context Macro Environment: Moderately bullish, supported by easing inflation and accommodative policy trends. Europe’s growth is slower than the U.S., but risk appetite remains high overall. Institutional Positioning: Balanced but leaning bullish, with dealers net long gamma (helping reduce extreme volatility). Put-buying is present, indicating hedging activity—important to watch if price breaches key supports. Liquidity & Volatility: Ample liquidity generally, though leverage is elevated. That can enhance directional moves when key levels break. --- Primary (Bullish) Short-Term Setup Technical Bias The 1H/4H charts show higher highs and higher lows. Institutional sentiment backs a near-term bullish structure unless it invalidates key support. Trade Entry Signal: Look for a decisive 1H close above the 22,600–22,620 order block, then a break above ~22,800 on solid volume/confirmation. Stop-Loss Place stops just below 22,400, protecting against minor intraday pullbacks while keeping risk contained. Targets TP1: 22,950–23,000 (round number + minor Fib extension) TP2 (if momentum persists): 23,100–23,200 Risk Management Risk 1–2% of account size. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trail stops to breakeven or slightly in profit for any remaining position. Why It Works Macro Tailwind: Improving global risk appetite, stable short-term funding, and supportive derivatives flows. Reduced Volatility Spikes: Net long gamma positioning typically dampens extreme selloffs. --- Alternate (Bearish) Short-Term Setup Technical Bias Activated if the bullish structure fails, signaling a momentum shift on any negative catalyst (economic data miss, geopolitical risk, etc.). Trade Entry Signal: A solid 1H candle close below 22,400, followed by a retest that fails to reclaim 22,500. Stop-Loss Above 22,600 to invalidate a short if buyers push price back into the previous range. Targets TP1: ~22,200 (recent volume support) TP2 (if downward momentum accelerates): ~21,900 Risk Management Keep risk at 1–2%. Take partial profit at TP1, tighten stops on the remainder. Why It Works Institutional Hedging: Elevated put-buying can exacerbate a down-move if key supports fail. Macro Risks: European data disappointments or risk-off catalysts could drive a near-term pullback. --- Final Notes on Execution Event Catalysts: Watch central bank commentary, inflation data, and geopolitical news flow, as any surprises may shift sentiment swiftly. Partial Profits & Trailing Stops: Always consider scaling out at the first target to lock in gains, then let the remainder ride if momentum remains strong. Position Sizing: Align trade size with stop distance and overall volatility. Elevated leverage means bigger moves when technical levels break. --- Disclaimer: These insights reflect an analysis of short-term market conditions and are not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
1
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 Germany 40 maintains its bullish momentum, currently trading at 22,687, well above its VWAP (20) of 21,802. The trend remains positive, with support at 20,930 and resistance at 22,700. An RSI reading of 80 signals strong momentum, though overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term pullback or consolidation before the next move. UK 100 The UK 100 continues its bullish surge, currently positioned at 8,753, still holding above its VWAP (20) of 8,652. Immediate support is noted at 8,450, while resistance stands at 8,854. With an RSI of 62, momentum remains positive, though down from overbought levels following the 2-day pullback from record highs. Wall Street Wall Street remains in a corrective phase within its broader bullish trend, trading at 44,550, right at its VWAP (20) level of 44,550 and below record highs. Key support is identified at 44,097, while resistance is set at 44,988. RSI at 55 suggests moderate momentum, with the market consolidating before a new directional move. Brent Crude Brent Crude remains in a neutral consolidation phase, currently trading at 7474, slightly below its VWAP (20) of 7555. Support is forming at 7371, while resistance is overhead at 7739. The RSI at 44 indicates a lack of clear momentum, with potential for either a breakout or continued range-bound movement. Gold Gold remains in a strong impulsive bullish phase, currently priced at 2,898, comfortably above its VWAP (20) of 2,838. Support is established at 2,722, while resistance stands at 2,955. The RSI at 65 signals sustained bullish momentum, though a temporary pullback cannot be ruled out following such a long time in overbought conditions. EUR/USD EUR/USD remains in a neutral consolidation, trading at 1.0486, above its VWAP (20) of 1.0391. The pair is range-bound, with support at 1.0253 and resistance at 1.0529. RSI at 60 suggests fresh bullish momentum since last week, but a confirmed breakout over 1.05 is needed for a clearer trend. GBP/USD GBP/USD also remains in a neutral phase, trading at 1.2595, above its VWAP (20) of 1.2410. Key support is found at 1.2293, while resistance stands right at current levels near 1.2600. RSI at 62 is the most bullish momentum going back over 3 months, but the pair remains just about within a consolidative range while under 1.26. USD/JPY USD/JPY is in a bearish impulsive phase, currently at 151.63, below its VWAP (20) of 153.60. Support is firm at 150.39, while resistance extends to 156.81. The RSI at 37 indicates weak momentum, confirming the bearish sentiment, though the pair is still above the oversold territory reached earlier in the month.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week my bearish take was wrong again and market moved closer to 23000 than below 22000. Until bears start closing gaps below and breaking bull trend lines, this is still max bullish, no matter the valuations. Still hard to buy the highs, given that we are trading either above or at the high of all of the ones you can draw. We are also far away from the daily 20ema and markets always come back to them. For now it’s useless to look for shorts because bears are not doing anything to have a decent trade setup for shorts. Bulls buy every dip and make money, so join them until it stops working. Trade small. current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather but it doesn’t) key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Not much difference to last week, other that we are 700 points higher. Bulls buy it all because it continues to be profitable. Clear bull trend line around 21800 and if we get there, we can expect heavy buying to happen but I highly doubt we get there in the first place. Upper target is 23000. I expect a sideways correction much more than one to the downside. Longs closer to 22000 are better than ones closer to 22600, obviously. Invalidation is below 21800. bear case: A decent pull-back is overdue but that does not make it happen tomorrow. Bears need to start by closing the gap down to 22150 and testing the bull trend line. For now we can’t expect them to get much more than that. It’s likely that we only see the beginning of more profit taking, once we stop making daily new ath and market stops finding buyers buying new highs. Hasn’t happened yet, so don’t spend too much time looking to short this. Daily close below 22000 would be a huge surprise to me and then we can talk lower targets. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral until we have a daily close below 22000. Can only look for longs until we clearly stop making daily new ath and see bigger selling pressure. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: Burned the last shorts. Only long scalps for me as of now. chart update: Just highlighted current bull trend lines.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
DAX overbought rally to new ATH, The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The Dax (DE40) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer term prevailing uptrend. The key trading level is at 21703, which is 07th Feb swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21703 level could target the upside resistance at 22000 followed by 22096 and 22200 over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21703 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 21600 support level followed by 21400 and 21240. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:DE40
by TradeNation
Markets Relieved After Tariff DelayThe week’s closing session unfolded under the expectation of potential “reciprocal tariffs” from the United States, which ultimately will not be implemented immediately. This decision eased initial market jitters and led to a weaker dollar, as fears of an escalating trade war subsided—for now. The U.S. outlook was also shaped by weaker-than-expected consumption data: January retail sales fell 0.9%, significantly below estimates, suggesting a weaker household spending impulse. At the same time, industrial production exceeded expectations with a 0.5% increase, but manufacturing within that indicator declined by 0.1%. These mixed data, coupled with the tariff delay, put downward pressure on the dollar, which lost much of the ground it had gained in previous weeks. The effects of this softening U.S. currency were felt across several emerging markets. The Mexican peso posted notable gains, while the Chilean peso advanced up to 0.7% at its peak. In the stock market, signals regarding U.S. consumption and caution over potential tariffs translated into volatile trading on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 remained flat after mixed sector performances. Energy and financials held relatively firm, while consumer staples declined amid a more cautious investor outlook. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 logged another week of gains, driven by strong tech earnings. Europe maintained its recent positive trend, though some of its major indices—such as the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50—showed overbought signals (RSI above 70). In the most recent session, moderate profit-taking was observed in the DAX, while the French CAC 40 managed to hold its gains, supported by strong luxury sector earnings and other better-than-expected corporate results. Investors also remained in wait-and-see mode regarding potential U.S. trade measures impacting the region and the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index stood out with a more than 2% daily gain and over 6% for the week. Investors reacted optimistically to the prospect of the People’s Bank of China implementing new monetary stimulus to reinforce economic recovery. Additionally, strong demand for tech and consumer stocks helped fuel the rally. The commodities market showed divergent movements. On one hand, oil prices remained in a tight range, with WTI hovering around $71 after a brief rally that was capped by the prospect of a diplomatic agreement that could ease energy sector sanctions. In contrast, natural gas surged nearly 9% over the week, reflecting seasonal volatility and some unexpected demand factors. In metals, gold retreated from record highs but remained above $2,900 per ounce. Looking ahead, market attention will be focused on potential concrete announcements regarding the White House’s reciprocal tariffs. This will help shape the market outlook, which for now appears cautiously optimistic following developments in trade tensions but remains closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by Pepperstone
DAX (DE40) INTRADAY consolidation supported at 22220The DAX (DE40) intraday price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since the spike to intraday all time high at 22620 on 13th January 2025, the DAX price action is consolidating sideways, potentially indicating the overbought condition. The key trading level is at the 22220 level, which is the 61.8% Fib retracement from 12 Feb ’25 swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 22220 level could target the upside resistance at 22480 followed by the 22620 and 22700 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 22220 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 22154 support level followed by 22000 and 21800. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:DE40
by TradeNation