Technical Breakdown on US100 | 1H TimeframeHere’s the detailed breakdown of the US100 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX):
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 19,383
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,220
Point of Control (POC): 19,291.79
High-volume nodes: Clustered around 19,220 to 19,300 (heavy acceptance).
Low-volume gaps: Above 19,400 and below 19,200 — price can accelerate through these zones.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop clusters likely at: Above 19,400 (recent swing highs). Below 19,200 (recent breakout area).
Order absorption zones: Around 19,291 (POC) and 19,220 (high bid absorption).
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 19,382 (testing resistance with moderate volume).
Swing Low: 19,220 (breakout launch pad).
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend
ADX Strength: ADX > 20 and DI+ > DI-, confirming strong bullish momentum.
CVD Confirmation: Rising CVD + bullish candles = Strong demand and genuine buying pressure.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support: 19,291.79 (POC) 19,220 (VAL & previous demand zone)
Resistance: 19,382-19,400 (current tested highs and potential breakout point)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Gann Swing High: 19,382
Recent Gann Swing Low: 19,220
Key retracements: 1/2 level: 19,301 1/3 level: 19,274 2/3 level: 19,328
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
Strong Bullish (confirmed by rising ADX and CVD).
b) Notable Patterns:
Ascending Channel: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows inside the purple channel.
Breakout retest: POC retest around 19,291 before moving higher.
No major topping signals yet — still holding structure.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 19,290–19,310 (near POC support zone)
Targets: T1: 19,400 (swing high breakout) T2: 19,500 (measured move from channel)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,220 (below VAL and previous swing low)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 19,380–19,400 (at resistance failure)
Target: T1: 19,290 (POC retest)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,450 (above resistance breakout trap)
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of trading capital per trade.
NAS100 trade ideas
Gold Vs. Nasdaq, since 2022Fairly clear here that Gold and Nasdaq correlated in direction until December 2024, at which time the equities market peaked. The two continued to correlate in trend direction until February, where, after several years divergence finally occurred.
Gold continues upward, equities continue lower. This seems to be a clear indication that equities, in this case the Nasdaq, will continue into downward correctional territory while Gold continues into a positive trending direction.
Gold Vs. Nasdaq, since 2017 Using momentum indicators, the Nasdaq is overbought and seems to be retreating a bit off of that region. Gold is continuing to move into the overbought region of momentum.
The two are following more of a correlation up until now. This current movement marks divergence, which is what is expected. This coincides with the expectation that Gold and equities will trend in opposite directions.
In other research, it is noted that when there is correlation followed by divergence, it is typically the equity which was over-extended and will retrace back against Gold's more gradual movement. Gold typically keeps pace with inflation.
NAS100 Bulls Rally – Eyes on 19,860 Resistance Zone!"The NAS100 is sustaining a strong bullish rally after reclaiming the 19,150 🔽 support zone. Price is trading firmly within a bullish structure, but still has some distance to reach the next key resistance at 19,860 🔼.
Currently trading at 19,446, with
Support at: 19,150 🔽, 18,500 🔽, 17,600 🔽
Resistance at: 19,860 🔼, 20,347 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: As long as price holds above 19,150, bulls remain in control. A breakout and retest above 19,860 could fuel a further move toward 20,347.
🔽 Bearish: A rejection from 19,860 or a break below 19,150 could trigger a decline toward 18,500.
No breakout, no trade.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Is a reversal about to happen?Hello, traders
Orange circles highlight repeated price rejection and the formed doji that suggests a slowdown in a bullish wave and potential reversal. The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal supply/resistance zone creates a high-probability reversal or breakout from this triangle.
If the price rejects again from the current supply zone and triangle, short setup toward the Fibonacci retracements or demand zones (18300 and below).
If the price breaks above the descending trendline, bullish continuation will likely target 20,000+ (Swing H).
Trend remains down.
Entry 19300
TP 18300 below
Target 14k.
No shampoo in sight.....and an $11k Nasdaq?This posts presents an idea that has no precedence (that I can recall at least), so this is by definition a crazy idea BUT the chart is showing signs of extreme exhaustion and is possibly and quite frankly on the verge of a potentially destructive collapse.
If the recent severe volatility hasn't peaked your attention... this chart should.
It's quite simple...we have a MONSTER Head and Shoulders pattern on the Weekly TF...and we're finishing off the Right Shoulder! From a chart pattern perspective, this is ultra-ultra bearish.
The confluence we have is the Elliot Wave showing the we could be about to enter Wave 5. Elliot Waves are of course subjective BUT in this case its syncs with the Head and Shoulders.
If this was a 15min chart, most would probably agree hands down, but this is a Weekly Chart and represents Trillions on Trillions so its hard to believe that this could even be a possibility.....but I believe it could happen!
The horizontal blue lines provide 2024's High and Low Price. For this disaster scenario to be avoided, the Bulls and anyone who cares must defend 2024's low around 16100. This must not be breached, to keep the 12M bullish structure in place.
The green shaded areas highlight all of the Buy Side fair value gaps on the WEEKLY TF going back to early January 2023!
Could the market dive for these in devastating fashion? Only time will tell.
In the interim, we should trade safe and manage risk as best as we can.
Demand Zone US100 (Potential Long Play) Next week there is a nice opportunity on an identified demand zone on the US100. Due to bullish market Structure, We aim for long positions on demand zones as these are higher probabilities plays than shorts. The demand zone area is the last bearish candle (without upper wick), marked on the 1HR time frame and will be the key area of interest.
Bullish Continuation Setup Towards📈 US100 - Bullish Continuation Setup Towards 19,454.8 🚀
After a strong impulsive move, US100 is consolidating inside a rising channel, forming a classic bull flag structure. Price has respected multiple demand zones on the way up and currently sits just above the key support at 19,107.0. The bullish momentum is supported by a clean structure of higher highs and higher lows, and a breakout from the flag could trigger the next leg up toward the 138% Fibonacci extension level at 19,454.8.
As long as price holds above the 19,000–19,107 support zone, this scenario remains valid. Keep an eye on volume and a breakout candle for confirmation. 📊💥
NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- Earnings season: In my view, it's irrelevant in terms of the data itself! It reflects the pre-tariffs era. Market is always looking forward. However, it gives market the opportunity for a relief, consolidation and rebalancing. So beside the kneejerk reaction, uncertainty is in the driver seat.
2- Trump's policies: The 90-day pause has a big chance to become an Eternity pause. Cracks inside Trump's team about the impacts of these tariffs on their own corporations will make them fleeing Trump's boat. Hence, the rational supporting the Eternity pause. This said, we'll see many tweets highlighting how much Trump is winning to feed his mindset.
3- Key economic data: Economic data will take over the driver seat. Recession and Inflation are the key data for market. Bad data is bad for Equities and vice-versa.
4- FED: Rate cut has increased probability during the next meeting, but for the wrong reasons. Both Trump and market will continue their pressure on the FED. This pressure is translated via Sell-off of stocks and equities.
5- Risk: Beside the uncertainty context, I think agreements between Iran-USA and Ukraine-Russia are underway. This is positive for equities. Gold is your indicator in this front.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
- Not much to update from two weeks ago analysis! Price is in its way to complete Wave 2. Crumbles left.
- Price broke out and closed above the 90-day pause weekly/daily candle. This tells you a continuation up is expected but not too much left in the upper side.
- Economic Data will drive the move. This might last 1-2 weeks.
Daily TF:
- Green daily close with a small size candle.
- A consolidation period is expected to end this Wave 2. So there is no rush to jump in the sell side to catch the top of Wave 3. Here is a good opportunity for swing position that you can build incrementally as the price creates LL from lower TF up to Daily and Weekly TF.
GL!
Price breaking out of a wyckoff balance to go unbalanceMy approach the market was pointing out market had found a balance zone starting on April 9th- today. Today I notice high volume on the bull side towards one of the resistance points which it broke and retraced. One it started to retrace I went to the smaller time frame to look for a sniper entry( 5min bullish and strong delta candle stick rejecting of a low volume node and the session vwap ). The balance zone was $1450 wide so it should go imbalance for the same amount or close. This trade is really a 25rr but im going for 8rr to pass my 2nd phase in my challange. This trade will not hit instill like Wednesday maybe even to the end of next week.