NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
ST/MT/LT Outlook: Sell
1- Tariffs came into effect on April 2nd and market reacted badly to it. This was completely expected.
2- NFP data came green but market ignored it and continued the sell-off. This tells you the fundamental change in market expectations vis-a-vis US market! So bad data will be bad for equities and good data will be also bad.
3- This week, we've CPI, PPI and Consumer sentiment as major key data. They'll be fuel to the current fire.
4- The FED was tacit and still data related. The FED is running a risk of a late intervention!
5- Additional retaliations from the rest of the world are also expected. USA is isolating itself from the world economy; the damage is here to stay even if Trump cancel those tariffs or deregulate or cut taxes.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
We got a strong bearish weekly close. A gap down should be added to the weekly candle.
A continuation down is expected.
Daily TF:
NQ provided one of the largest daily candle. Market was down until the last minute Friday! There is no interest to buy the dip at all!
A gap down is expected.
In the case of a gap, price might close the gap and continue down.
Hope we get some retrace to join the sell side during NY session.
Happy week with a lot of green pips!
NAS100 trade ideas
Potential Bearish SetupThe chart indicates that the US100 index has broken below a strong ascending trendline, signaling a possible shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
📊 Trade Idea:
Entry: On a pullback to the 18,300–18,350 zone (look for bearish confirmation like a reversal candlestick).
Target: 15,500–16,000 area
Stop-loss: Above 18,350 (above the resistance/pullback zone)
Risk/Reward: Favorable setup if confirmed
This setup is based on classic price action: trendline break + pullback + continuation.
US Technology Companies at Great Risk #NDX US Technology Companies at Great Risk
Let's take a look from a fundamental and technical perspective;
If the protests against Trump, who has been in the presidential seat for 3 months, gain strength and reach a level that disrupts economic activity, uncertainty pricing increases in the markets .
Technology-weighted indices such as NASDAQ sell faster in such periods of uncertainty because they are in the ‘risky asset’ class.
The FED's interest rate cut expectations were first postponed, and now the possibility of cancellation is on the table. This creates negative pressure for technology stocks.
2025 Q1 balance sheets have not yet been fully announced. However, growth rates are slowing in many major technology companies, which means an extra threat to NASDAQ.
Let's take a look at the scenarios that could happen this week;
🔴 Protests increase, if the security problem grows:
NDX may fall below 16,700 again.
If panic sales come into play, there may be a decline to around 15,000.
🟢 If protests are quickly brought under control:
Buying comes from 17,000 level, reaction rise starts.
18.500 - 19.000 band can be retested.
🔸This week there was a very sharp decline of -9.77
🔸It is currently at 17.397 , which corresponds to the middle band of the logarithmic channel (black dashed line).
🔸 16,764 - Persistence below this level may lead to sharper selling.
🔸If the price closes weekly below 17,000 , stronger support around 15,000 may be tested.
🔸This decline may also cause large investors to switch to ‘risk off’ mode.
NDX multiple channels, Which one is correct?Channels can be drawn in many ways because of fractal nature of markets. Every one could draw different channels and they all could be valid, So I prefer to draw a few likely ones some short term and others long term and find a cluster of convergence for high probability. No one is perfect
So just presenting what I see in NDX, mot likely ones
I expect Vix to reach 70, levels reached in 2008-GFC and 2020-covid. The tariff is a significant event in American history
NASDAQ tanks below key levels amid new Trump tariffs!The market free-falls as Trump's new tariffs send shockwaves through global sentiment.
Sellers are piling in — but it's the fear of economic fallout that's truly fuelling this drop.
The NAS100 has broken through major support zones with strong bearish momentum.
Sellers are clearly in control, and price action shows little sign of slowing down.
Structure around 18,324 failed to hold. Next major support zone: 16,968.5.
Will the bleeding stop there?
⚠️ Reminder:
No one can predict what will happen next.
Markets react to collective psychology, news flow, and big players—not forecasts.
✅ Focus on:
-Key Levels 🔎
-Market Structure 📐
-Risk Management 🛡️
❌ Don’t trade based on emotion or prediction.
🎯 Trade based on probability, not certainty.
👉 Let price confirm your bias — watch for clear breakouts, retests, or rejections before jumping in.
Stay patient, stay disciplined. 📈📉
NASDAQ Bearish, What's Next?Price respected Weekly's bearish imbalance to continue lower. Still price is within the weekly's context area to which is suitable to look for entries in lower timeframes targeting weekly's swing low (POI).
Once, the Weekly POI get's tagged we might look to continue to the next POI (Point of Interest). Likely, the daily swing lows.
What's Next?
Pontetial target price is 18,537.88.
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US markets have a little more downsideI had posted a similar chart a few weeks ago.....US companies fundamentals may be good, but price follows technicals. There is still some more downside, which I think would be where JPow said Inflation is no longer transitory, then we see some consolidation, then another fall to shake out the bulls, by which time we would reach the bottom of the monthly channel and then uptrend can resume after a bit of consolidation. Remember the Trump tariffs are just catalyst, a reason for market to get where it wants to be sooner. Do remember that market rallied when inflation hit a peak of 9%.....All this news is just noise....You know where the level of interests are and trade accordingly....Markets will not go up in a straight line neither will it go down in a straight line.....The Fear & Greed Index is at 4 as per CNN. This is only for investors, start buying small positions in your favorite stock....only a little, bit by bit, with every fall, or you can wait....Don't put all your savings in the market because it fell substantially...Selling begets selling, the opposite is also true.....Market can head to 14000 as well, I'm not ruling that out, but i'm expecting a really nice bounce from the JPow, however, be very aware of the overhead resistance.....Bears have not had a chance for a long time, and they will squeeze every ounce of blood from the bulls while they can....Just remember, Bulls are complacent, Bears are tactical.....Throughout history that has been the case....
NDX : It's time to take a step backThis is a level I'll be closely watching for making aggressive additions. Until then, only selective entries in U.S. Oil ETFs, Silver and Gold ETFs, and a few individual stocks may be considered. However, large-scale accumulation is not advisable until this level is reached.
I may also consider dollar-cost averaging into index ETFs if I start to see signs of consolidation from here onward.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next.
📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation?
One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages:
🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA)
These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum.
The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure.
Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand.
🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA)
The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends.
In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it.
This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure.
🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA)
The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends.
Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market.
The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control.
➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal.
Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure
We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower.
Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge.
🔥 What’s Next?
If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally.
If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets.
Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery.
Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
NAS100/US100/NQ/NASDAQ Long NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits atleast TP-1, manage your position accordingly.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Nasdaq Elliott Wave Update on Short Position ManagementIn this video, I go through exactly how I plotted the wave counts that I published on 3rd April (linked to this idea). I also show how to estimate price target using support and Fibonacci extensions. Lastly, I talk about trading productivity again and why I recommend to take out some of your short position.
There are 3 main reasons:
1. We have completed wave 3 of 3 and is now going into wave 4 (and wave 4 are notorious for being unpredictable and may even have triple combinations).
2. We are what? 80% in the money and it happens very fast. So productivity wise, it is good to take some money off the table.
3. Weekend risk.
I am putting this idea as "Neutral" even though I am still expecting a wave 5 down. Reason is because we are in wave 4, and also because I pray that I can find time to update again when wave 4 ends and wave 5 of 3 starts.
Good luck!
Sell Idea on NQ100 based on draw on liquidity NQ100 has been selling off mainly due to the tariffs issues but I'm more concerned with the draw on liquidity on the daily time frame at 17626.74 as it is a daily low. I'm anticipating price to draw close to that price due to this and also we have the London session low at 17657.27 which is very close to the price I mention above hence the idea of a buy to take out the London high .
NSDQ100 INTRADAY key trading levels ahead of US NFPKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 18435
Resistance Level 2: 18800
Resistance Level 3: 19580
Support Level 1: 17680
Support Level 2: 17300
Support Level 3: 17000
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