DXY SET-UP I anticipate DXY to move in the Bearish direction ⬇️ after taken liquidity and the Daily Fear Value Gap.
USDINDEX trade ideas
Republican bear cycle / QELong-term sell-off in expectation of the Trump administration's projected monetary policies. In addition, on a technical aspect, the inefficiencies of the last DXY drop in Nov. 2022 are filled. The entry is given by the change in the daily structure after filling the aforementioned inefficiency. The target is looking for liquidity at the low of Jul. 23', coinciding at the 61.8 fibo of the bullish momentum of the Democratic Biden administration.
Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)I’ve re-counted the waves, as analysed on the chart above.
⭕️3 Sub-Wave Correction (A,B,C) relabelled.
⭕️Main Supply Zone highlighted.
⭕️Alternative Bias Also Shown.
Is it time to buy the US dollar?With US inflation rising, the US economy performing well, and rates higher for longer (well, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed hike rates by the end of 2025), the USD continues to be an obvious buy.
The TVC:DXY is currently testing key horizontal support (previously resistance) and is nearing the weekly moving averages. This could be the time to buy the dollar.
I'm personally looking to short OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD and buy OANDA:USDCAD and OANDA:USDCHF
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.618.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.382.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXYDXY Index
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Patten in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame
Order Block
Change of Characteristics
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 108.500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 105.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠Fundamental Analysis
Weakening US Economy: The US economy's growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
Falling Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar.
💠Macroeconomic Analysis
The US economy's growth, inflation rates, and employment numbers influence the dollar's strength.
Global economic trends, such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, also impact the dollar's value.
💠COT Data Analysis
Net Short Positions: Institutional traders and large banks have increased their net short positions in the DXY Dollar Index, indicating a bearish sentiment.
COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.2, indicating a bearish trend.
💠Market Sentimental Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: 55% of client accounts are short on this market, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Option Skew: The 25-delta put option skew has increased to 15, indicating a bearish sentiment.
💠Positioning Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: Institutional traders and large banks are positioning themselves for a bearish trend, with some predicting a decline to 105.50.
Corporate Traders: Corporate traders are also monitoring the index's performance, considering factors like interest rates and global economic trends.
💠Overall Outlook
Bearish Trend: The DXY Dollar Index is experiencing a bearish trend, with a potential decline to 105.50.
Key Support Levels: 106.57, 105.50.
💠Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen to 40, indicating oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band breakout indicates a bearish trend.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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U.S. Dollar IndexU.S. Dollar Index - Daily
Dear traders,
I sincerely apologize for my absence during this time; I have lost my father, who has passed away. I have not been well over the past two weeks, and I regret not being able to provide an analysis.
DXY Chart Update
I have updated the DXY chart and present it to you now. We know that in smart money analysis, it shows us the primary market trend structure, and by mapping the daily structure, it indicates that this chart is in an upward trend. Currently, we are looking for suitable areas to buy the dollar.
Confirmation of Major High and Market Movements
After confirming the major high with the price reaching the first standard pullback, which I indicated on the chart with IDM, and ultimately reaching the Decisional Order Block, we experienced a good upward move together with a proper buy. However, unfortunately, our major high was not broken, and the market pursued a downward phase towards the IFC Candles.
Current Status and Key Levels
Now, at the beginning of this week, with the price reaching this important IFC block and receiving confirmation in the 4-hour timeframe, we can set our target at the important resistance level of 109.533, which I have designated as my first target. Additionally, there is a 4-hour resistance at the price of 107.182 that should be closely monitored.
Based on this dollar chart, this week we can look to sell euros, pounds, Australian dollars, and New Zealand dollars while buying Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, and Swiss francs. However, it is essential that we also examine other charts and find entry points on those charts as well. My focus this week is on buying the dollar and selling other currencies. I will be updating the entry points for the other charts today and sharing them in my channel.
Fundamental News
In his latest speech, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized the continuation of contractionary policies to control inflation and mentioned the ongoing strengthening of the dollar. He highlighted positive signs in the U.S. economic growth, which increases the likelihood of a rise in the dollar's value this week.
Source: Jerome Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve meeting, February 2025.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
My model say DXY will retrace smallI just saw a possibility of a small retracement in DXY. You can take it as a trade advise or wait for an opportunity to sell higher.
I'm still overall bearish, till around year end, it's just that I saw a possibility of a retracement. I will update you guys when I'm sure it will sell again.
I will like for this move to play out today or next and set the tone for the next leg down.
This is counter trend, trade wisely
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 105.44
1st Resistance: 108.67
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
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MIGHTY DOLLAR - Is on the bearish side no signs of reversals From Weekly all the way to the 4 hour time frames we are seeing nothing but bearish structure. We have hit a major support area. I will be looking for price to continue its bullish trend.
DXY. Attempt to change the trendHey traders and investors!
In a recent analysis of the AUDUSD currency pair (available in related posts), I mentioned a high probability of a reversal forming on the weekly timeframe. This conclusion was also supported by the situation on the daily timeframe. Currently, a similar situation is observed with the US Dollar Index.
This review illustrates the relationship between different timeframes, aiding in making better decisions in asset analysis and entry point identification.
1D Timeframe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a downtrend on the daily timeframe after breaking down from a consolidation range. The boundaries of this range are marked by black lines on the chart. A key level protecting the breakout from the range is 106.957, which marks the beginning of the last seller's impulse.
At the start of this impulse, a seller's zone formed (red rectangle on the chart). At the end of the impulse, there was a buyer's bar with increased volume, indicating buyer interest at these price levels. The volume in this bar is concentrated in its upper part (blue line on the chart), suggesting potential seller interest.
Key Levels on 1D Timeframe:
Key resistance (start of the last seller's impulse): 106.957
50% of the last impulse: 106.435
Last impulse low: 105.913
Trading Recommendations:
Selling:
Look for selling patterns near resistance levels, especially around 106.957.
Buying:
Currently, there are no conditions for buying (bearish trend). Buyers need to consolidate above 106.957 to change market dynamics and create opportunities for buying patterns.
Now let's analyze a higher timeframe to understand potential downward targets and obstacles. In my opinion, the 11-day timeframe shows the situation best.
11D Timeframe
On the 11-day timeframe, the price is moving within a sideways range, with the upper boundary at 106.952 (close to the daily level of 106.957) and the lower boundary at 99.099.
The last realized vector in the range is a buyer's impulse 7-8. The key bar of this impulse (highest volume) is located in its middle (marked as KC on the chart).
The price broke above the upper boundary of the range during this impulse. However, the seller returned the price into the range, forming a seller's zone above the upper boundary (red rectangle on the chart). This seller's zone corresponds to the daily range.
All of this appears as manipulation (false breakout) of the upper boundary of the range. The current seller's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 99.807 (99.099).
Obstacles for sellers include the key bar of the buyer's impulse, inside of which is the 50% retracement of the last impulse. I expect the first buyer reaction (long bar on the 11D timeframe) after the price declines to the range of 105.112 - 104.843.
Thus, the 11-day timeframe supports the conclusion on the daily timeframe about the advisability of searching for short positions. Similarly, one can analyze a smaller timeframe, for example, the hourly, to look for short entry patterns.
Key Levels on 11D Timeframe:
Upper boundary of the range: 106.952
50% of the last buyer's impulse: 104.843
First target for selling (PT Short): 99.807
Lower boundary of the range: 99.099
I wish you profitable trades!
Viper Sunday Weekly Forecast Taking a look into the week ahead and what we can expect with news events. How will they effect the markets and what general direction or trade setups we can hope for this week.
Breaking down DXY, US30, Nas100, Gold, Oil, Forex pairs.
DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.
Cycle pivot support lines 106.2, 105.7 as starting entries
The main volume is based on building up around 105.36.
This strategy is a very bold move based on the long-term view that DXY will necessarily remain unexpectedly strong in the Trump2.0 tariff trade.
Using a break of 0.618 A as a stop loss, we can continue to add dollar longs to 104.5 below the previous annual pivot point of 105.7
US dollar to 112-113 on a completed gartley. Looks like the dollar is set to head back higher for a run at 112-113. Let’s see if we can catch a bid here.
DXYShort idea. From last supple that broke structure. In line with weaker fundamental data and stronger Euro. Waiting for confirmation from these to levels. More confident with the higher supply zone. Would correlate with key demand zone for EU.
DXY - Fed’s Rate Cut Gamble Clashes With ECB Hawkish HoldSuccessful delivery this week with daily sell stops taken out @ 106.566 as expected. This caused risk on conditions for FX pairs; GBPUSD and EURUSD.
The heaviness to the downside indicates continuation to the downside.
106.111 - 105.440 is a price region i am scoping
DXY - Bearish.Similar thesis to my NASDAQ analysis, with the DXY in a current bear trend, with key levels unmitigated below, and very close to current price action. Overall, expecting a decline in the price of the DXY over the next weeks sessions, mainly to hunt liquidity below to then continue the monthly Bullish bias and trend.
Align it with the current US economic proceedings, and a declining dollar makes sense for a few more weeks until thing calm down with tariffs etc. etc.
Expecting assets with a positive correlation to the dollar to also correlate any bearish moves in the DXY, with inverse assets such as gold benefitting.
Mahalo.
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week
My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower.
While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks.
Plan of Action:
📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action.
📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level.
However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend.
With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
DXY at a Deciding PointThe DXY has a slight bounce from the fib 0.786 golden pocket, but also at a neutral level of 107.158. I have plotted a trend channel from the higher timeframe which is marked by the dotted line.
At this point, I would take a wait-and-see approach in the coming weeks until a clear direction takes place.
