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2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar! 🔥 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness after breaching key support levels. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and a shift in economic policy, we may be entering a new phase for the dollar’s normalization. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch 🔹 Resistance: 107.5 (Immediate resistance) 🔹 Key Mid Support: 100.95 (Next major level) 🔹 Final Target: 94.8 (Major support & potential bottom) 📰 Fundamental Factors Driving the Move 💡 Trump’s Dollar Policy: Historically, Trump has favored a weaker dollar to boost exports. His recent remarks during the Executive Order signing on January 23, 2025, reinforce this stance, as he pushes for interest rate cuts and lower energy costs. Remarks by President Trump at Executive Order Signing (January 23, 2025): Q: Mr. President, you said earlier that you would like to see interest rates come down. THE PRESIDENT: Yeah. Q: How much would you like to see them come down? THE PRESIDENT: A lot. Q: And will you talk with Powell? THE PRESIDENT: I’d like to see them come down a lot, and oil prices will come down. And when oil prices come down, everything is going to be cheaper for the American people — and actually for the world — but for the American people. So, I’d like to see oil prices come down. Q: Are you worried that there’s too much going on at once if you’re trying to bring interest rates down and get the economy back going? THE PRESIDENT: No, no. It just works that way. I mean, it just economically works that way. When the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices, then you won’t have inflation, and then the interest rates will come down. Q: You said that you would demand that the interest rates come down. Do you expect the Fed to listen to you? THE PRESIDENT: Yeah. 📉 What’s Next for the Dollar? 🔸 If 100.95 breaks, we could see further downside, testing the 94.8 region. 🔸 A retest of resistance at 107.5 would be a key test before further declines. 🔸 The global macro environment (oil prices, inflation, and geopolitical shifts) will heavily influence the dollar’s trajectory. 🌍 Economic & Geopolitical Impact Beyond monetary policy, Trump’s trade and labor policies are also playing a role in shaping the inflation outlook. His push for tariffs and tighter immigration policies has led to higher labor costs, causing short-term inflation. However, on the global stage, Trump's potential deal with Putin to resolve the Ukraine conflict could help ease inflation worldwide by stabilizing supply chains and reducing geopolitical risks. With Trump pushing for rate cuts, the Fed under pressure, and DXY losing momentum, could we see a full-scale dollar correction in 2025? Let’s discuss! ⏬ 📢 Follow for more macro insights & market analysis! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:DXYShort
by FX_Professor
DXY:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategiesRecently, the DXY has continued to show a downward trend ⬇️. (👉signals👉) Although it broke through the psychological barrier of 100 points the week before last, according to the data on April 20, the ICE DXY fell from 99.64 points at the beginning of the week to 99.38 points in the recent week. Some people believe that from the credit perspective, the DXY's fall below 100 points is the result of cracks in the "broad - sense national credit" of the United States, which is coupled with the internal drivers of the recent market performance of US stocks and US bonds 📊. From the supply - demand perspective, the dislocation between "manufacturing reshoring" and a "strong US dollar" also implies that the US dollar's credit is facing deeper - seated challenges 🚨. In operation, focus on the 100 - 101 resistance area above. Continue to wait for a rebound to go short ⏬. Trading Strategy: Sell@101-100 TP:99-98 The signals last week resulted in continuous profits 🤑, and accurate signals were shared daily. 👇 signals👇
TVC:DXYShort
by AngelaYeates
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal April 20 Analysis Monday created the weeks low which was then taken on Wednesday. Price created the high on Tuesday. Thursday Price in a deep discount from previous day and taking sell side liquidity. Price takes minor buy side and rebalances previous days inefficient delivered price, price closes in a consolidation in a discount. *Last weeks highlight Price took key lows from July 2023 and rebalanced a BISI from April 2022. April 20 week ahead Bias is bear I would not be surprised if price stays in a tight trading range this week. Price is in a deep discount. I could see Price seek higher prices in the beginning of the week. My longer term idea is for Price to take the noted key equal lows and rebalance 4 hour FVG before I suspect for the DXY will seasonal shift to seeking higher prices.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
Global Market Overview. Part 1: USDXThe Dollar Index is drifting at the key 99.5 mark. This strategic support level, which has held since early 2024, is on the verge of collapsing. Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about the strength of the dollar. What’s at stake is the monetary sovereignty of the United States, caught between inflation, politics, and election-season hysteria. And make no mistake — this has nothing to do with technical analysis. What we’re witnessing is a fundamental fire, and Donald Trump and his administration are fanning the flames. Powell: “Rates remain unchanged.” But for how long? Just days ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered what seemed to be a firm message: “We are in a wait-and-see mode. Cutting rates prematurely could do harm.” “If inflation accelerates, more difficult decisions may follow.” On the surface — classic hawkish rhetoric. But in reality, this isn’t resolve. It’s a delay tactic. Even Powell admits: “The labor market is walking a fine line.” “Economic growth weakened in Q1.” “Business sentiment is deteriorating.” “Tariff policy could lead to stagflation.” “Political pressure is mounting by the week.” The Fed says, “It’s too early to cut rates.” But the market hears something entirely different: “We’re getting close.” Trump applies pressure Ahead of the elections, Trump declares: “If we don’t cut rates now, we’ll lose to China, Europe, and our own markets.” This isn’t just campaign rhetoric. It’s an open challenge to the Fed’s independence. And history already tells us what happens when Trump applies pressure — 2019 rate cuts proved he can break through Powell’s defenses. What the charts are saying The Dollar Index (USDX) is locked in a persistent downward channel. The 103.0 support zone has been broken The 101.17 level remains the final significant support 99.5 is already being tested as a potential sell-off trigger Below that — only air until 98.0 and 97.5 The technical setup confirms a fundamental truth: The market no longer believes in the dollar’s strength. What if the Fed actually cuts rates? If the Fed moves to cut, USDX will break below 99 and enter a systemic phase of weakening. Capital will flow into gold (as if it hasn’t already gone far enough), oil, crypto, and high-yield emerging markets. The United States will lose its competitive edge in monetary policy, and the dollar will slowly cease to function as the global anchor it once was. Powell can talk tough all he wants. The market is no longer listening. The Dollar Index isn’t dropping because rates are already cut — it’s falling because everyone knows it’s just a matter of time. U.S. monetary policy has lost the initiative, and market expectations have taken over. Today, the Fed rate is no longer a tool of control. It’s a signal of approaching capitulation. The question is no longer “Can we hold 99.5?” The real question is: “What happens after it breaks?” Manipulation or strategy? Black swans on a leash Powell’s rate policy, DXY charts, inflation forecasts — all of it loses clarity when the dominant market force is no longer economics, but politics. We live in an era where markets break not from bad data, but from tweets, briefings, and backroom deals — moves that only reveal themselves in the charts after the fact. That’s what makes the current cycle the most toxic in the last 15 years. Markets aren’t just volatile — they’ve become irrational. Trade war: scalpel in a surgeon’s hand or a bat in a brawler’s grip? Tariffs aren’t new. But in Trump’s hands, they’ve evolved — from macroeconomic tools to blunt political weapons. He uses them as battering rams — to force concessions, corner opponents, and set up ideal conditions for insider gains. The market reacts exactly as you’d expect: Tariffs announced — indexes fall Panic ensues — capital flees into dollars and gold Within 48 hours — videos surface of Trump and his allies joking about the “hundreds of billions” they made during the crash This isn’t conspiracy. It’s already triggered official investigations, but everyone knows: the odds of accountability are near zero. And that’s the biggest risk for fundamental analysis today: It’s powerless against narratives crafted behind closed doors. So who’s really running the market? Trump is deliberately deflating the bubble. Loudly. Dramatically. On camera. But the goal isn’t destruction. It’s control. And while Powell fears making a mistake, Trump fears only one thing — losing control of the narrative. The market is no longer a field for rational actors. It has become a battlefield, where officials already understand: You can control more than just money through the market — you can shape public consciousness. How not to lose your footing in this chaos? We’ll break it down in the next part of the Global Market Overview. Stay tuned.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by StarTradePro
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see . The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone. 📌 Here’s what I’m watching: 107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance. 105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels. 👀 My Take: If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider. What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥 🚨 Disclaimer: Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumFusion
1
Last Week’s FX Recap: April 7–11 (Zone Reactions & Trade Notes)📈 Weekly Forex Recap – Market Reactions & Lessons (Apr 7–11) Last week there were about +320 pips of reaction potential (excluding Gold, which I was completely off on). There were multiple opportunities to capture solid intraday or swing setups. 3 out of 6 weekly targets were hit. 5 out of 6 trend biases were either accurate or neutral —meaning no major misreads, aside from one or two volatile zones. The only pair that really got me was Gold. Let’s run it back real quick: ✅ AUDJPY Bearish bias accurate. 30 pip reaction off zone with just 1 pip drawdown. Weekly target hit. ✅ NZDJPY Bearish bias accurate. Weekly target hit, though price never reached the watch zone. No setup triggered, but direction was respected. ⚠️ EURUSD Range-bound bias played out majority of the week. Gave about 90–100 pip drop from the hot zone mentioned. Weekly target came close but didn’t hit. ⚠️ GOLD Watch zone completely failed. Short-term bounce gave 480 pip reaction—but that volatility was tough to catch cleanly. Directional bias wasn’t helpful here. Gold was chaos. ✅ EURGBP Cleanest setup of the week. Bias was bullish, price tapped the buy zone and ran 100 pips. Weekly target hit. Textbook move. ⚠️ GBPUSD Consolidation-heavy. Watch zone gave 100 pip reaction, but weekly target didn’t hit. Bias was unclear—no real conviction either way. 📉 Total Zone Reaction Potential: 320 pips 🎯 Weekly Targets Hit: 3/6 📊 Trend Accuracy: 50% (3 clear hits, 2 neutral, 1 miss) But that’s done now. Whether you hit it last week or fumbled the ball, let it go. We trade forward. Eyes up. Mind clear. Time to dive into the new week. Let’s get it. 👊
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by elevatedinvestor
DXY:The US dollar will continue to be under pressure.Trump's approach of "suspension plus intensification" has dealt a blow to the global supply chain and the confidence in energy consumption. The deterioration of consumer confidence and the rise in inflation expectations have eroded the safe-haven status of the US dollar. It is expected that the DXY will continue to face downward pressure next week. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then take short positions. Trading Strategy: Sell@102-101 TP:99-98 The signals last week resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
TVC:DXYShort
by Leo_TraderO
DXY Breakdown: Bearish Momentum Builds Amid Weak U.S. DataThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining a clear bearish trajectory, with price action on the H4 chart showing a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel. The technical structure points to continued selling pressure, and recent fundamental developments only reinforce this view. 📰 Key drivers behind the decline: The latest U.S. CPI data came in weaker than expected, signaling easing inflationary pressure and fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. A slight uptick in jobless claims has raised concerns that the U.S. labor market may be losing momentum. Simultaneously, global players like China and Japan are shifting toward more stable monetary policy, prompting capital flows away from the dollar. 📉 From a technical perspective, DXY has broken below the key 100.817 support zone and is now trading around 99.7. Each attempt at a bullish pullback has been short-lived, with sellers regaining control quickly. The green arrows on the chart indicate potential reaction zones, but the descending channel structure remains firmly intact. Outlook: If the index fails to reclaim the 100.8 – 101.3 resistance area, there’s a high probability of further downside toward the 98.5 – 98.0 support region. In short, DXY is under pressure both technically and fundamentally, which explains the current bullish momentum in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and especially gold (XAU/USD).
TVC:DXYShort
by Jack97_Trading