DXY trade ideas
USDX-SELL strategy 6 horuly chart Reg.ChannelThe index has moved up sharply, and as always, when over speeding, one may get a speeding ticket. :) anyway, on a serious note, we are quite overbought and above the Reg. Channel a bit. This means over time we may see a pullback, which can bring us to lower 99.00s.
Strategy SELL @ 100.00-100.40 and take profit near 99.07 for now.
The strength of the PMI reportWe all saw how a large and strong candle formed right after the news, hitting the top of the previous channel.
So now that channel top zone has proven to be valid.
Now we have to see whether this candle leads to another drop in the dollar, or if the dollar recovers and slowly starts moving back toward 100.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:The DXY has recently exited a bearish wave, retested support levels, and began a recovery — currently trading near 100.09, a key resistance area.
🔹 If price breaks and holds above 100.09, the upward move may continue toward the 102.00 zone.
🔹 However, if the index rejects this level and reverses, a retest of 98.80 could follow.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and monitor the markets before making any investment decisions.
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.23
1st Support: 99.29
1st Resistance: 101.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Review and plan for 1st August 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Quarterly results.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
DXY USDOLLAR CRASH Incoming!Long-term fundamentals are bearish
Long-term sentiment = bearish
Long-term technicals = bearish
Trump wants a weaker dollar + FED injecting endless amounts of cash into the markets
driving stocks/ gold up, and the dollar down, losing purchasing power.
My plan is to look for shorts on the 1hr-4hr timeframe with lower timeframe confirmation.
Once price starts turning over, day-traders can join in.
Agree or disagree?
DXY still in downward channel. Rejection here = BTC rally The DXY is still in a downward sloping channel and trying to break back above the previous 2-year cycle low, but I think will reject here and kick off the next leg of the BTC rally.
Ideally we get a big DXY drop and ultimately break below the 95% level and on down into 'Bitcoin Super Rally Zone'🚀
DXY BEARISH TREND 30-JUL 15-JUN 2025There are some major upcoming events that could significantly impact the US dollar index (DXY), including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Federal Funds Rate decision. Because of this, I expect the DXY to continue its downward movement until it reaches around 94.5. If it breaks below that level, it’s also possible that it could drop further and reach 89.00.
Currently, the DXY is expected to start its move downward from the 99.20–99.50 range, making a decline from that level quite likely
Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.24
1st Support: 98.27
1st Resistance: 99.97
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month HighUS Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month High
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to its highest level since early July. According to media reports, the bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the following factors:
→ Optimism around US trade agreements. A new trade deal with the EU — which includes a 15% tariff on European goods — is being perceived by the market as favourable for the United States.
→ Confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Strong Q2 corporate earnings have acted as an additional bullish catalyst. Investors may have started covering short positions against the dollar, viewing concerns over a US slowdown as overstated.
→ Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold.
From a technical standpoint, today’s DXY chart reflects strengthening bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Two U-shaped formations (A and B) that developed over the summer have created a bullish сup and рandle pattern — a formation that suggests waning bearish pressure, as evidenced by the shallower second dip.
This setup points to the potential for a bullish breakout above the trendline (marked in red) that has defined the downward movement in the DXY throughout the first half of 2025.
As previously analysed, there are signs that the dollar index may have found a base following a period of decline. This could indicate a shift in market sentiment and the possible end of the recent bearish phase.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY testing 100.00 resistanceThe US dollar index has risen to rest a key resistance area around the 100.00 level. Previously a key support and resistance zone, what happens here could determine the near-term technical direction for the US dollar.
Key support below this zone is at 98.95, marking a prior resistance. Given the short-term bullish price structure, I would expect this level to hold if the greenback were to ease back from here.
If the bullish momentum gathers pace, then 101.00 could be the next stop, followed by the recent high of 101.97.
From a macro point of view, resilient economic data and persistent core inflation concerns continue to support the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy approach. Today’s core PCE inflation reading came in slightly above forecast, at 2.8% year-over-year versus the expected 2.7%. In addition, jobless claims were better than anticipated, registering 218,000 compared to the 224,000 forecast. The Q2 Employment Cost Index also surprised to the upside, rising 0.9% quarter-on-quarter.
These figures follow yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP report and a solid ADP private payrolls release, further underscoring the strength of the U.S. economy.
Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could have a meaningful impact on rate expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the importance of the unemployment rate as a key metric, so any upside surprise could reinforce the Fed’s current position.
However, expectations are not very high for the non-farm payrolls report. Current forecasts suggest an increase of 106,000 jobs, with average weekly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Yet, the scarcity of strong leading indicators this month adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index4-Hour Timeframe🔍 Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index
4-Hour Timeframe
After hitting a strong supply zone marked in blue at the top of the chart, the price faced selling pressure and entered a bearish phase. Currently, the price is trading within a decision zone between buyers and sellers, where both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible.
🔼 Bullish Scenario:
If the price finds support at the mid-level support zone marked in green, and signs of a bullish reversal appear—such as proper candlestick formation or a renewed breakout of minor resistances (creating higher highs)—then the index is expected to move toward higher resistance levels.
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
Considering the market structure, if the mid-level support is lost and the price settles below this zone, the downtrend may accelerate. The dollar index could then move toward the lower support zone, marked in blue, which previously acted as a strong barrier and reversal area. This level may again serve as a key point to watch for market reactions.
✅ Conclusion
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a corrective phase, oscillating within a sensitive range. The price reaction to the current support zone will likely determine the next directional move. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a confirmed breakout or bounce from this area before entering any trades.
USD Working Strongest Month Since April 2022After a decisive sell-off ran for most of the first-half of the year, USD bulls have stepped up in July and DXY is currently up 3.3% for the month.
That's the strongest monthly outing in the currency since April of 2022- and that's just after the Fed had started their rate hike campaign that year. It led into a massive rally that ran through September as the USD set fresh 20-year highs.
The question now is one of continuation, and motive seems to be fairly clear. I've outlined the technical backdrop as this shift has taken place over the past month, as the Dollar held a higher-low last week and that drove into a higher-high this week.
There's likely some short squeezing contributing to the rally but with U.S. data remaining strong, and inflation on the way back up, the rate cuts that markets had priced-in back in March and April for 2025 are now in question.
This brings attention to the next major item - with Non-farm Payrolls tomorrow morning.
On a short-term basis the USD move has already started to show overbought conditions on the four-hour chart, and daily RSI is getting close to the 70-level. So perhaps ideal would be a soft report tomorrow at which point a pullback could show. It's from that that we can see whether bulls will come in to defend higher-lows, and there's now support potential at prior resistance of 99.40 in DXY.
If we do see a strong report, the 100 level is the spot for bulls to reckon with and at that point, we may be looking at an overbought RSI scenario on the daily chart - which doesn't necessarily preclude bullish continuation although it will make it more difficult to chase topside breakouts. - js
Dollar I Weekly CLS I Model 2 I Ready for pullbackYo Market Warriors ⚔️
Fresh outlook drop — if you’ve been riding with me, you already know:
🎯My system is 100% mechanical. No emotions. No trend lines. No subjective guessing. Just precision, structure, and sniper entries.
🧠 What’s CLS?
It’s the real smart money. The invisible hand behind $7T/day — banks, algos, central players.
📍Model 1:
HTF bias based on the daily and weekly candles closes,
Wait for CLS candle to be created and manipulated. Switch to correct LTF and spot CIOD. Enter and target 50% of the CLS candle.
For high probability include Dealing Ranges, Weekly Profiles and CLS Timing.
Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it.
“Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.”
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
DXY bullish into AUGUSTThe dxy seems poised to rally following a rally above PMHs. The August OPEN decline could end up being nothing but a retracement as we rally high. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday could range, while Thursday and the NFP push us above August's current highs. An expansion below Friday's New York AM lows (H4) could signal continued decline as we seek to establish weekly LOWS. Patience as the market unfolds is hand is ALWAYS key. Let's chat.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Pro Analysis | 1H Chart |1. Strong Bullish Momentum
DXY broke out sharply above the 99.41 resistance, showing clear strength from bulls with minimal pullbacks during the rally.
2. Short-Term Rejection at Supply
Price was rejected from the 99.978 zone — a key supply area. This indicates the presence of active sellers near the psychological 100 level.
3. Retesting Breakout Structure
Currently hovering just above 99.669, the DXY is retesting the previous breakout level. This could act as short-term support if bullish momentum resumes.
4. Next Key Zones
Resistance: 99.978 → 100.534
Support: 99.411 → 98.92
Break below 99.411 may invalidate the breakout.
5. Outlook
Bias remains bullish above 99.41. However, failure to reclaim 99.978 soon may signal temporary exhaustion or consolidation before next leg up.
DOLLAR INDEXDepartments Responsible for Each Economic Report
Indicator Responsible Department/Source
Average Hourly Earnings m/m U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the Department of Labor
Non-Farm Employment Change BLS (Establishment Survey)
Unemployment Rate BLS (Household Survey)
Final Manufacturing PMI S&P Global/Markit (private company)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Institute for Supply Management (ISM, private sector)
ISM Manufacturing Prices Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan (private/public university)
Construction Spending m/m U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations University of Michigan
How the Federal Reserve Interprets “Greater Than” or “Lower Than” Forecast
1. Average Hourly Earnings,
2.Non-Farm Payrolls,
3. Unemployment Rate
Higher than forecast (stronger labor market):
Tight labor markets (higher wages, more jobs, lower unemployment) suggest inflationary pressure.
The Fed may view this as a signal to keep rates higher for longer, as wage and job growth could fuel inflation.
Lower than forecast (weaker labor market):
Signals cooling in employment and wage growth, reducing upward pressure on inflation.
The Fed may see this as justification to consider easing policy or at least pausing further rate hikes.
2. Manufacturing PMIs (ISM, S&P)
Above 50: Signals expansion in manufacturing; below 50 indicates contraction.
Higher than forecast: Points to stronger economic momentum; the Fed may see upside risks to inflation.
Lower than forecast: Indicates weaker manufacturing activity; a possible sign of slowing demand, which could support rate cuts or dovish policy if persistent.
3. ISM Manufacturing Prices
Higher than forecast: Suggests inflationary pressures in manufacturing input costs; Fed interprets this as a reason for vigilance on inflation.
Lower than forecast: Implies easing input price pressures, supporting a dovish outlook if inflation remains subdued.
4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
Stronger than forecast sentiment: Consumers are more optimistic, often a sign of solid spending potential. May amplify inflation if this leads to greater demand.
Higher inflation expectations: If consumers expect higher future inflation, this can become self-fulfilling and the Fed may maintain tighter policy.
Weaker sentiment/lower inflation expectations: Reduces inflation risk, gives the Fed more flexibility to ease if needed.
5. Construction Spending
Higher than forecast: Indicates resilient investment and demand in the real economy.
Lower than forecast: Suggests cooling real estate and infrastructure spending; may support a dovish Fed outlook if sustained.
Summary Table
Data Surprises Interpretation for Fed Policy
Higher-than-forecast More hawkish; raises risk of persistent inflation
Lower-than-forecast More dovish; reduces pressure to hold rates higher
The Fed looks at the overall pattern across these data. Persistent upside surprises heighten concerns about inflation, supporting tighter policy. Downside surprises suggest cooling economic momentum and may encourage future rate cuts or pauses. The relative impact depends on which indicators surprise and the broader economic context.
#DXY #DOLLAR