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DXY warning of an incoming bear market?The DXY is into major multifactor support on the weekly timeframe. We have 2 weekly trendlines intersecting right at the 97.00 level. The first connects the highs from March 2020 through the lows of July 2023 to where we are now. The second is much larger and goes all the way back to 2007, connecting the lows from 2007, 2011 and 2021. We could see a major bounce here for months and some companies have reported during earnings that the sole reason for their improved earnings was due to weakness in the dollar. What happens to earnings when the DXY goes back into bull mode???? Time will tell...
TVC:DXYLong
by bradc1984
DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers . Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session. Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments. Relationship & Market Synopsis DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty. Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar. Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum. Summary: Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
Dollar Index (DXY): Possible Reversal | Inverse Head & ShouldersThe dollar has had a tough year, but that might be changing. I’ve spotted a well-known reversal pattern: an Inverse Head & Shoulders. This pattern features three dips, with the middle one—the "head"—being the deepest. Now, the price has rebounded from the Right Shoulder and is heading higher. It’s approaching the Neckline at $98.7, which needs to be broken for a bullish confirmation. If that happens, the projected target is around $101.6, based on the depth of the pattern. This lines up closely with the previous high of $102 from May. The target area is highlighted in the blue box. However, if the price falls below the Right Shoulder’s low at $97.1, the pattern would be invalidated. Anyone else see this pattern? Could this be the bottom for the dollar?
TVC:DXY
by aibek
1
USD Rallies into a Major Week - Fed, PCE, NFP on the WayReversals of long-term moves can be tough to work with, especially for shorter-term traders. While fundamentals are important for shaping future price moves and technicals are key for explaining past moves, while also allowing for strategy and risk management, it's sentiment and positioning that probably matter more. Because if any and everyone in the world that wants to be long already is, well it doesn't matter how positive the news is if there's simply nobody left to buy. And if there's no influx of fresh demand, and only incoming supply, well, then price can drop, even on good news. And at that point, a heavy one-sided market will take notice of falling prices even in the face of good news, when price should be going up, and they'll be disconcerted to hold long positions, which can lead to even more supply, more selling, and in-turn, lower prices. As the old saying goes, if a market doesn't rally on good news, well then look out below. This shows in various ways on varying time frames in numerous markets but from a longer-term perspective, that shifting trend is akin to turning a cruise ship in the middle of the ocean - it's not going to happen suddenly. It takes time, it takes shifting, and it takes the slow grind of late-to-the-trend bulls turning into ahead-of-the-curve sellers. This is what allows for the build of wedges, just as I had looked at earlier in the month in both USD and EUR/USD. Bulls suddenly get shy as prices approaches highs, although they remain aggressive on pullbacks and tests of support. This leads to a weaker trendline atop the move and, eventually, unless buyers get motivated to punch up to higher-highs with a new breakout, that motive for profit taking can soon take over. In the USD, the sell-off in the first half of this year was a grinding matter, and the polar opposite of the trend that had held in DXY as we came into 2025. But, now the question is whether resilient US data leads to profit taking from bears and as we saw again last week, sellers have been showing lacking motivation at tests of lows or around support. The big question for this week is whether we see that shift take-hold on a larger basis. We've seen sellers getting shy around lows, but are buyers ready to punch up to fresh highs in the USD? There's certainly ample potential for motivation as given the economic calendar with FOMC, Core PCE and NFP in the final three days of this week. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY at Its Most Critical Level of 2025 — Will the 100 Bank LevelThe Dollar Index (DXY), just like several other majors, is approaching a very important level. We’re now near the 100 mark, which is not only a psychological level — but also a key institutional (bank) level. There’s also a gap zone left behind that price is about to fill. I believe the index will stay in a range over the next 1–2 days as it waits for critical data later this week — especially Wednesday’s announcements and Friday’s NFP report, which could set the tone for what’s next. Based on current market sentiment, Trump’s remarks, Powell’s upcoming speech, and broader macro factors, I believe DXY has the potential to break above 100 and move toward 102–104, if that level is broken cleanly. Let’s also not forget — price bounced from a monthly demand block near 96, and we’re seeing weak support across majors like EUR and Gold. That adds confluence for potential dollar strength. 📌 What do you think — is dollar strength just around the corner? 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
TVC:DXY
by Mehrasfx
Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD RelationshipHello traders, Here’s an analysis that can be useful for both short-term and swing trades on EURUSD and DXY. Our trading team’s calculations are as follows: Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD Relationship Currently, DXY is at 98.200. Historical statistical data indicate that if DXY declines toward 96.300, there is approximately a **1.55% probability of an upward move** in EURUSD. Based on this scenario: Current EURUSD level: 1.16500 Projected target level:1.1830 While the correlation data show a strong inverse relationship, it’s important to note that periodic deviations can occur in the market. Therefore, this analysis should be considered a statistical projection only, not a guaranteed outcome.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nurlan_PT
1
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical weakness and shifting macroeconomic fundamentals. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with softer U.S. economic data and declining demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, have weighed heavily on the index. Technically, the DXY remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators showing sustained weakness. Unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or a surprise in monetary policy direction, the bias remains to the downside over the near to medium term.
TVC:DXYShort
by Primus0725
DXY 4Hour TF - August 10th, 2025🟦 DXY 4H Analysis 📅 August 10, 2025 Top-Down Trend Bias: • Monthly – Bearish • Weekly – Bearish • Daily – Bullish • 4H – Bearish The Dollar Index is consolidating near the 98.00 support zone after a sustained downtrend on the higher timeframes. Daily shows some bullish relief, but 4H remains under short-term pressure. 🔍 Key Zone: 98.00 This level is a critical decision point, acting as current support and aligning with a trendline from previous swing lows. A break or bounce here will likely set the tone for the next move. ✅ Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (Blue Path) If price holds above 98.00 and breaks above the current pattern Look for continuation into 98.75 Extended target: 99.25 resistance This would be a countertrend move on the higher timeframes but aligns with the daily bullish structure. ⚠️ Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (Orange Path) If price breaks and closes below 98.00 Watch for retest rejection to confirm Target: 97.15 support This setup aligns with the overall HTF bearish bias and would signal downside continuation. 🧠 Final Notes • 98.00 is the line in the sand for short-term direction • Blue path is valid only on confirmed breakout; orange path is trend aligned • Let price action at this key level confirm before committing
TVC:DXY
by ForexLeague
DXY Analysis – August 10, 2025 After the prolonged downtrend in the US Dollar Index that started back in January, recent political developments seem to have had a short-term impact on its trajectory. I believe we could soon see a short-term correction in the dollar. However, after months of decline, this recovery won’t be straightforward — expect stop hunts targeting buyers before any sustained move higher. For this week, a short-term sell setup could be considered — with proper risk management — before the broader bullish trend resumes.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by SineHeidari
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback. The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs. If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target. Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD. Take care until the next update!
TVC:DXY
by FundedTraderMarkets