Weekly 1D chart DXY forecastMore of sideways movement. We may see a flash rise to 100 turning a fakeout followed by a fall to 98.93
Not enough strength to go up
DXY trade ideas
1. "What do you think — is DXY ready to fly or fall?"DXY 4H Analysis – Decision Time for the Dollar?
After completing a falling wedge with a clean 5-wave Elliott structure, the U.S. Dollar Index is approaching a key demand zone.
Will buyers step in to push price toward the bullish target near 106 📈?
Or will we see another rejection from the supply zone and a deeper drop to 94? 📉
Wave A or Wave B?
Market structure shows signs of reversal, but confirmation is still pending a break of resistance or further rejection.
👉 What do you think — bounce or breakdown?
Comment your view below ⬇️
Let’s see who’s riding the next big wave 🌊
#DXY #USD #ElliottWave #SupplyAndDemand #GreenFireForex #ForexAnalysis #WaveTheory
US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Bond Prices vs. Yields
Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up).
When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears).
Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% .
2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar.
A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation .
Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation .
Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily .
3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital.
A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% .
Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% .
Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link .
4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields
Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations.
The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts .
The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" .
Summary Table of Relationships
Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields
Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link)
10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) —
Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening)
Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying)
Key Exceptions and Contexts
Term Premium Dynamics:
Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) .
Economic Growth Differentials:
Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them .
Geopolitical Risks:
Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip .
Conclusion
The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics.
#DOLLAR #USD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER
Adam and Eve pattern? Bullish?DXY is finding strong support, possibly forming an Adam and Eve pattern, which indicates a bullish reversal.
DXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental Analysis
DXY has reclaimed momentum, trading at 99.300, after strong U.S. economic data and a hawkish tone from Fed officials signaled policy stability — boosting short-term confidence in the U.S. dollar. On the 15-minute chart, we’re seeing a bullish structure reinforced by clean liquidity manipulation and institutional flow.
Price confirmed bullish intent after breaking above minor key resistance at 99.250, triggering a wave of buy-side momentum. A brief liquidity hunt below 99.250 followed — a textbook manipulation phase — before buyers stepped back in.
DXY then formed Higher Highs and Higher Lows, indicating a well-supported uptrend. Price is now sitting inside the liquidity zone, where smart money often positions for the next leg up.
📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 99.140 (Buy Limit)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 98.990 (Below liquidity grab and minor support)
🎯 Take Profit: 99.610 (Next minor resistance / 1:3 RR)
This setup aligns with institutional behavior, offering a high-probability entry for short-term trend continuation.
📰 Fundamental Outlook
🇺🇸 USD Strength Backed by Short-Term Fundamentals
Resilient U.S. Data: Retail sales and durable goods orders beat forecasts, signaling economic strength and limiting downside for the dollar.
Fed Stays Hawkish: Policymakers have reiterated their "higher for longer" stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts and supporting the dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical concerns and weak economic data abroad have driven flows back into the USD as investors seek stability.
Yield Support: Elevated U.S. bond yields continue to attract foreign capital, giving additional strength to DXY.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
possibility of correctionGiven the behavior of the index in the resistance range and the resistance trend line, an upward trend is expected. Otherwise, a downward trend to the previous low is possible.
How strong is the dollar??Currently looking to take price lower as the DXY very bearish with lots weekly selling pressure.
USD INDEX PIVOT AREAThe USD INDEX is currently prefering the bears as long as the pivot area holds .However abreak above could bring some strength to the index with 99.29 and 99.90 as targets.
DXY Bullish Shark PatternThe US Dollar Index is showing strength at 98.8%, poised to move decisively towards its upcoming targets.
🦈💸 Will it bite or blow bubbles?
Stay tuned for more financial drama!
Highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC and DXY. This is crazy.
And if it continues to play out, it means that higher is next.
So what do we have here?
This is highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC has had with DXY since Bitcoin bottomed and DXY topped.
We can see that when DXY drops, BTC moves higher, but it has a lagging period beforehand.
The crazy part is that this lag has been 119 days until BTC moves back up to its recent local high.
EVERY single time.
From there, BTC enters an expansive phase, and every time this has been between 49 and 56 days.
Right now, we are right at that 119 day mark.
Is this continues to play out, we’re heading into price expansion next week for at least 49 days.
When you really dig into the charts you see that’s everything is actually very patterned and simple.
What makes it hard is our emotion.
Next week, expect volatility 🔥
Dollar Index Dips – All Eyes on 97.600?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading just below the 100.000 🔼 resistance area, following a series of lower highs and lower lows that reflect a clear bearish trend. Price is now approaching the 97.600 🔽 level, which has previously acted as a key turning point and could influence the next directional move.
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼, 104.223 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: The trend remains bearish while price stays below 100.000. A break below 97.600 may lead to further downside continuation.
🔼 Bullish: A bounce from 97.600 followed by a move back above 100.000 could open the door for a recovery toward 101.500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Dollar Bottoming Out Pretty solid bottom for USD. I am assuming more money flowing into USD when a correction is about to happen. We see that this morning when we had that quick drop from 7:00 - 8:00 EST. US10Y rate dropping, USD rising, and equity declining. Back to the old game. So I am suggesting long USD, and short equities, given the recent comeback is way too ridiculous and needs a correction now.
$DXYThe U.S. dollar might face downward pressure as capital shifts into safer or high-demand assets:
💰 Stocks – High quality U.S. products still attract global demand.
🪙 Bitcoin – Emerging as digital reserves.
🥇 Gold – Classic portfolio leverage in times of uncertainty.
🇺🇸 U.S. Strategy – Dollar devaluation could be a smart move to attract foreign capital. Big market = big opportunity.
👉 The U.S. needs capital to grow. A weaker dollar might be the setup.
#Forex #DXY #Bitcoin #Gold #USMarkets #SmartMoneyMoves #TheMoneyAssociation
USD Bears Take Over After 102 ResistanceTiming moves can be difficult on both long and short-term basis. But when price goes oversold on the weekly chart, it can be really difficult to chase the move lower, such as we saw in DXY back in late-April.
The currency hit a major spot of confluent support on Easter Monday and at that point RSI on the weekly was in oversold territory for only the second time in the past seven years.
As I had highlighted in this post () it was the 102 level that I wanted to see DXY trade through to illustrate bullish control following that oversold reading.
It took a few weeks, but last Monday saw an open door for bulls to make the statement move - but they fell 2 pips shy of the big figure and since then, sellers have taken more and more control of the matter.
This is where the proverbial plot thickens as there's now no oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart, and sellers have an open door to push for a major low.
On that front, we will likely need to see a breach of the 140.00 level in USD/JPY to allow for a push to a fresh low, and given the momentum in both USD and USD/JPY from the past week, that's not something that I would want to discount.
But next week is the final week of May trade and it's a big week for both markets. USD/CAD remains of attraction for USD bears given the longer-term range that remains in play there. - js
DXY Aiming for Lower LowsHi,
DXY is bearish on the 1-hour chart, headed toward the 98.901 area, potentially aiming for 97.912 with an extended drop to 96.114.
Price volatility is moving in line with price momentum across both lower and higher timeframes, suggesting strong bearish sentiment at this time.
If the price reverses and breaks above 101.000, the setup will be invalidated.
Happy trading,
K.
Not trading advice
Bond Market Breakdown: Why Yields Are Surging and What It Means 🚨 Market Recap – May 2025 Edition
This week, markets sent a clear message: rising yields are shaking the foundation. In this video, I break down the key events driving the spike in U.S.
Treasury yields — the highest in nearly two decades — and what that means for major assets like:
💵 DXY (U.S. Dollar)
📉 XAU/USD (Gold)
🟠 BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We unpack:
Why the dollar is showing strength despite long-term fiscal concerns
How bond market stress is impacting investor sentiment across all asset classes
What rising yields mean for your portfolio — in plain language
Why this might be the most important macro signal traders are missing right now
If you’re a trader, investor, or just trying to understand what’s really moving the markets, this recap connects the dots.
📊 Watch now to stay ahead.
🔁 Feel free to share or comment with your thoughts!
#MarketRecap #BondYields #DXY #Gold #Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis #TradingView #InvestorInsights #FX #Crypto #TradingStrategy
Dollar is turning into trash and people are rushing to buy EURODXY chart shows the US dollar is crashing down. From the peak beginning of this year to current price level, it has fallen nearly 10% already. I expect more to come and would be placing strategic bets on EURUSD.
correctionIt is expected that a trend change will take place within the current support range and we will witness the start of an upward trend. Otherwise, the downward trend will continue to the next support levels.
DXY Elliott Wave AnalysisThe dollar is finishing a corrective pattern. A good trade opportunity will present itself shortly. Stay tuned for updates.
DXYDXY in 1d fractals is bearish .It's overall swing is also very bearish but currently in retracement phase . Now in 2h it gave choch after swapping liquidity . so high chance to go down from marked supply zone . once confirmed choch in 30 min as well from supply then.
all xxx / usd pairs long .
SELL THE US DOLLARThis is a continuation of our previous analysis on DXY. As we had mentioned USD DOLLAR will drop all the way to 94.800 before we consider any bullish market movement. In the next session we will be monitoring DXY for selling positions (this means buying EURUSD, GBPUSD and GOLD). Keep your risk manageable and use proper risk management. Cheers to you all.
