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🇺🇸 Today's U.S. Data: Tariffs Starting to Bite?U.S. Data Journal – July 3, 2025 Today's U.S. economic releases showed a stronger-than-expected labor market, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surprising to the upside, alongside increases in factory orders and a solid ISM Services PMI print. The combination of these indicators points to persistent demand strength across both goods and services. Moreover, the upward trend in factory orders and service sector activity suggests that tariffs are beginning to feed into cost structures, adding inflationary pressure from the supply side. While the labor market remains resilient, the risk is that sticky input costs—partly tariff-driven—may complicate the disinflation narrative and potentially delay any dovish policy shift from the Fed.
TVC:DXY
by mehrshad31
DXY Quite IndecisivePrice on TVC:DXY after having broken below the Swing Low on June 12th @ 97.602 has created a lot of Indecision! Starting with a 5 Day Long Consolidation period as a Rectangle Pattern Then after the Bearish Breakout on June 30th due to the Federal Reserve mentioning possibly leaning towards Interest Rate Cuts, we see the TVC:DXY form a Expanding Range Now at the Swing Low and above all the Consolidation or Indecision, we see a Volume Imbalance in the 97.5 - 97.6 area. Fundamentally, USD has been mostly beating expectations with: - Manufacturing and Services PMI's showing Expansion - Job Openings higher then expected - Unemployment Claims Low - Unemployment Rate dropping ( 4.1% ) - Factory Orders Rising Non-Farm Employment however hurt USD with -33K instead of the 99K forecasted With all the Tariff uncertainties and how they will affect Inflation continues to worry markets with only a few deals having been ironed out, like the 20% Tariff on Vietnam ( down from 46% ) before the July 9th Deadline. www.tradingview.com Now with good Employment News out with numbers showing Strong Job Reports, this eases labor fears and could help remove some of the expectations of the amount of Interest Rate cuts this year. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by Novi_Fibonacci
DOLLAREXACTLY AS FORECASTED FROM MY WEEKLY DOLLAR CHART,ON STRONG NON-FARM DATA DOLLAR RISE TO KEEP GOING HIGER,GOLD SELL,AUDUSD SELL ,EURUSD SELL GBPUSD SELL. Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.4% — Non-Farm Employment Change 147K 111K 139K Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% Unemployment Claims 233K 240K 236K Interpretation and Implications Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Rose by 0.3%, slightly below the forecast of 0.4%. This suggests wage growth is steady but not accelerating, which may ease some inflation concerns. Non-Farm Employment Change: The US economy added 147,000 jobs, beating both the forecast (111K) and the previous month (139K). This indicates continued, though moderate, labor market expansion. Unemployment Rate: Fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and down from 4.2% previously. This points to a modest improvement in labor market conditions. Unemployment Claims: Dropped to 233,000, lower than both the forecast (240K) and last month (236K). This signals fewer new layoffs and continued resilience in the job market. Market Impact Dollar (USD): The combination of stronger-than-expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate is generally supportive for the US dollar, as it suggests the labor market remains robust. However, slightly softer wage growth may temper expectations for aggressive Fed tightening going forward. Federal Reserve Outlook: These figures reinforce the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance. Solid job creation and falling unemployment reduce urgency for immediate rate cuts, but the lack of wage acceleration may allow the Fed to maintain a cautious approach. In summary: The US labor market in July 2025 shows moderate strength, with job gains and a falling unemployment rate, while wage growth remains steady but not excessive. This mix supports a stable outlook for the dollar and gives the Fed flexibility in its upcoming policy decisions.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
1
Dollar I Daily CLS I Model 1 I Time for pullbackHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️ 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by David_Perk
45
DOLLAR INDEX BY 1;30 PM we are expecting the average hourly earnings m/m with a forecast 0.3% and previous 0.4% and Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 111K below past data of 139K the rate of Unemployment is forecasted to be lower as monetary team is looking at 4.3% against previous data of 4.2% but yesterday ADP -33k have given a clue that Non-farm data will come soft which will trigger sooner rate cut by feds. dollar index and US10Y will be watched to see the direction of investment by investors. if NON FARM EMEPLYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA REPORT COMES GREATER THAN FORECAST, DOLLAR AND US10Y WILL RISE AND WE SHORT GOLD ,AUDUSD SELL,GBPUSD SELL,EURUSD SELL ,USDJPY BUY. THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY: Next Move Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 96.362 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 96.319..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Why I haven't posted this week:Hey all, So, for those of you who watches my videos and market commentary will have noticed that I haven't posted anything this week, event though there were some awesome opportunities to highlight and discuss. The reason for this is because I am currently conducting work training and was unable to record, however, rest assured that I'll be back next week to break down these markets with you and take advantage of the opportunities lining up. Up until then keep well and bye for now
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below. Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9. Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.
ICEUS:DXY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
A Dollar in Freefall and a Bitcoin on the Brink In the grand theater of global finance, narratives rarely align with perfect symmetry. The market is a complex ecosystem of competing forces, a cacophony of signals where long-term tectonic shifts can be momentarily drowned out by the piercing alarms of short-term volatility. Today, we stand at the precipice of one of the most profound and fascinating divergences in modern financial history, a story of two assets locked in an inverse dance, each telling a radically different tale about the immediate future. On one side of this chasm stands the titan of the old world, the U.S. Dollar. The bedrock of global commerce, the world’s undisputed reserve currency for nearly a century, is in a state of unprecedented crisis. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the globally recognized measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, is in freefall. It is suffering its most catastrophic crash since 1991, and by some measures, is enduring its worst year since the historic turmoil of 1973. This is not a minor correction; it is a fundamental challenge to the dollar’s hegemony, a macro-level event driven by seismic shifts in U.S. economic policy, including aggressive trade tariffs and ballooning government deficits. For the world of alternative assets, a collapsing dollar is the loudest possible bullhorn, a clarion call to seek refuge in stores of value that lie beyond the reach of any single government. On the other side of the chasm is the digital challenger, Bitcoin. Born from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis as an answer to the very monetary debasement the dollar is now experiencing, Bitcoin should, by all fundamental logic, be soaring. The dollar’s demise is the very thesis upon which Bitcoin’s value proposition is built. And yet, while the long-term case has never looked stronger, the short-term picture is fraught with peril. A close reading of its technical chart reveals a market showing signs of exhaustion. A key momentum indicator, the stochastic oscillator, is flashing a stark warning, suggesting that the digital asset, far from rocketing to new highs, could be on the verge of a significant drop, a painful correction that could pull its price back below the psychological threshold of $100,000. This is the great divergence. The macro-economic landscape is screaming for a flight to safety into hard assets like Bitcoin, while the micro-level technicals of Bitcoin itself are suggesting an imminent storm. It is a battle between the long-term fundamental signal and the short-term technical noise, a dilemma that forces every market participant to ask themselves a critical question: In a world where the old rules are breaking down, do you trust the map or the compass? Chapter 1: The Fall of a Titan - Deconstructing the Dollar's Demise To understand the magnitude of Bitcoin’s long-term promise, one must first dissect the anatomy of the dollar’s current collapse. The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, is not merely a measure of the dollar against a single currency; it is a weighted average of its value relative to a basket of six major world currencies: the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. Its movement is a reflection of global confidence in the U.S. economy and its stewardship. For this index to suffer its worst crash since 1991 is a historic event. To be on pace for its worst year since 1973 is a paradigm-shifting crisis. The year 1973 is not a random benchmark. It was the year the Bretton Woods system, which had pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar (which was in turn pegged to gold), officially died. Its collapse ushered in the modern era of free-floating fiat currencies. For the dollar’s current performance to be compared to that chaotic, system-altering period is to say that the very foundations of the post-1973 monetary order are being shaken. The catalysts for this historic weakness are rooted in a dramatic shift in American economic policy, largely attributed to the actions of President Donald Trump’s administration. The two primary drivers are a protectionist trade policy and a fiscal policy of burgeoning deficits. First, the tariffs. The implementation of broad tariffs on imported goods was intended to protect domestic industries and renegotiate trade relationships. However, such measures are a double-edged sword for a nation's currency. They create friction in the intricate web of global supply chains, increase costs for consumers and businesses, and often invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. This environment of trade conflict creates economic uncertainty, which can deter foreign investment. When international capital becomes wary of deploying in a country, demand for that country’s currency wanes, putting downward pressure on its value. Second, and perhaps more fundamentally, are the rising deficits. The U.S. government has been running massive budget deficits, spending far more than it collects in revenue. This debt must be financed. When a country runs a large budget deficit alongside a large current account deficit (importing more than it exports), it becomes heavily reliant on foreign capital to purchase its government bonds. If the world’s appetite for that debt falters, or if the sheer volume of new debt issuance becomes too large to absorb, the nation’s central bank may be implicitly forced to monetize the debt—effectively printing new money to buy the bonds. This expansion of the money supply is the classic recipe for currency debasement. The combination of trade protectionism and fiscal profligacy has created a perfect storm for the dollar. Global investors, looking at the rising deficits and the unpredictable trade environment, are beginning to question the long-term stability of the dollar as a store of value. This erosion of confidence is what is reflected in the DXY’s historic plunge. A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expensive, but its most profound effect is on the global investment landscape. It forces a worldwide repricing of assets and sends a tidal wave of capital searching for alternatives that can preserve wealth in an era of fiat decay. Chapter 2: The Digital Phoenix - Bitcoin's Long-Term Bull Case In the world of finance, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. As the value of the world's primary reserve asset erodes, the value of its antithesis should, in theory, appreciate. Bitcoin is the dollar’s antithesis. Where the dollar’s supply is infinite and subject to the political whims of policymakers, Bitcoin’s supply is finite, transparent, and governed by immutable code. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. This fundamental, mathematically enforced scarcity is the core of its value proposition. The inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin is one of the most powerful and intuitive relationships in the digital asset space. When the DXY falls, it signifies that the dollar is losing purchasing power relative to other major currencies. For investors around the globe, this means that holding dollars is a losing proposition. They begin to seek out assets that are not denominated in dollars and cannot be debased by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin stands as the prime candidate for this capital flight. It is a non-sovereign, globally accessible, digital store of value that operates outside the traditional financial system. A falling dollar is therefore the strongest possible tailwind for Bitcoin, validating its very reason for existence. This relationship transcends simple price mechanics; it is a philosophical and macroeconomic hedge. Owning Bitcoin is a bet against the long-term viability of the current debt-based fiat monetary system. The dollar’s crash, driven by deficits and monetary expansion, is not a flaw in the system; it is a feature of it. Bitcoin offers an escape hatch. It is a lifeboat for investors who see the iceberg of sovereign debt on the horizon. This narrative is what has fueled the wave of institutional adoption that has defined the current market cycle. Sophisticated investors and corporations are not allocating to Bitcoin because they are speculating on short-term price movements. They are buying it as a long-term strategic reserve asset, a hedge against the very macroeconomic turmoil that the dollar’s crash represents. They see a world drowning in debt and a global reserve currency being actively devalued, and they are making a calculated, multi-generational bet on a system of verifiable digital scarcity. From this perspective, the long-term bull case for Bitcoin has never been clearer or more compelling. The dollar’s historic weakness is the ultimate validation of the Bitcoin thesis. Chapter 3: The Ghost in the Machine - Bitcoin's Short-Term Technical Warning If the story ended with the macro-economic picture, the path forward would be simple. But markets are not simple. They are a reflection of human psychology, a tapestry of fear and greed woven in real-time. While the fundamental, long-term story points resolutely upward, the short-term evidence, as read through the language of technical analysis, is painting a much darker picture. Technical analysis operates on the principle that all known information, including the bullish macro fundamentals, is already reflected in an asset's price. It seeks to identify patterns and gauge market momentum to predict future movements. One of the most trusted tools for measuring momentum is the stochastic oscillator. It does not measure price or volume itself, but rather the speed and momentum of price changes. Think of it like a car's tachometer: it tells you not how fast you are going, but how hard the engine is working to maintain that speed. The stochastic oscillator operates on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 80 is considered "overbought," suggesting the asset has moved up too quickly and the rally may be running out of steam. A reading below 20 is considered "oversold," suggesting a decline may be exhausted. The current technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart reveals a deeply concerning signal from this indicator. Despite the overwhelmingly bullish news of the dollar’s collapse, Bitcoin’s price momentum is reportedly waning. The stochastic oscillator is likely showing what is known as a "bearish divergence." This occurs when the price of an asset pushes to a new high, but the oscillator fails to do so, creating a lower high. This is a classic warning sign. It’s the market’s equivalent of a car’s engine sputtering and revving less intensely even as the driver pushes the accelerator to the floor. It suggests that the underlying buying pressure is weakening, that the rally is becoming exhausted, and that a reversal or significant correction may be imminent. The technical forecast of a potential drop below the $100,000 level stems directly from this type of signal. It implies that the recent price strength is not supported by genuine momentum and that the market is vulnerable. Why would this happen when the fundamental news is so positive? There are several possibilities. Short-term traders who bought at lower prices may be taking profits. The market may be flushing out over-leveraged long positions, triggering a cascade of liquidations. Or, it could simply be the natural rhythm of a market. No asset moves up in a straight line. Even the most powerful bull trends require periods of consolidation and correction to shake out weak hands, build a stronger base of support, and gather energy for the next major advance. A pullback to below $100,000, while painful for those who bought at the top, could be a perfectly healthy and necessary event in the context of a much larger, multi-year bull market. Chapter 4: Reconciling the Irreconcilable - The Investor's Dilemma This great divergence presents every market participant with a profound dilemma, forcing a clear-eyed assessment of their own investment philosophy and time horizon. The market is speaking in two different languages simultaneously, and the message you hear depends on the language you choose to listen to. For the long-term investor, the individual or institution with a five, ten, or twenty-year outlook, the story is clear. The historic crash of the U.S. dollar is the signal. It is the fundamental, world-altering event that confirms their thesis. The debasement of the world’s reserve currency is a generational opportunity to allocate capital to a superior, non-sovereign store of value. From this vantage point, the bearish reading on a short-term stochastic oscillator is, at best, irrelevant noise. It is the momentary turbulence felt on a flight destined for a much higher altitude. The strategy for this investor is one of conviction. They may choose to ignore the short-term dip entirely, or more likely, view it as a gift—a final opportunity to accumulate more of a scarce asset at a discount before the full force of the dollar’s crisis is felt in the market. Their actions are guided by the macro map, not the short-term compass. For the short-term trader, the world looks entirely different. Their time horizon is measured in days, weeks, or months, not years. For them, the bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator is the signal. The macro story of the dollar’s decline is merely the background context. Their primary concern is managing risk and capitalizing on immediate price swings. A warning of a potential drop below $100,000 is an actionable piece of intelligence. It might prompt them to take profits on existing long positions, hedge their portfolio with derivatives, or even initiate a short position to profit from the anticipated decline. Their survival depends on their ability to react to the compass of market momentum, regardless of the map’s ultimate destination. The most sophisticated market participants, however, attempt to synthesize these two perspectives. They recognize that the long-term macro trend provides the overarching directional bias, while the short-term technicals provide the tactical roadmap for navigating that trend. Such an investor would maintain a core long position in Bitcoin, acknowledging the powerful tailwind of the dollar’s collapse. However, they would use the technical signals to actively manage their position and optimize their entries and exits. They might trim their position when the stochastic indicator signals overbought conditions, taking some profit off the table to reduce risk. They would then stand ready to redeploy that capital and add to their core holding when the technicals signal oversold conditions after the very correction they anticipated. This approach allows them to maintain their long-term conviction while respecting the short-term risks, blending the art of the trader with the discipline of the investor. Conclusion: The Signal and the Noise The financial markets are standing at a historic crossroads. The U.S. dollar, the sun around which the global monetary system has orbited for generations, is dimming. Its historic crash is a signal of the highest order, a fundamental warning that the era of unchallenged fiat dominance is facing its most serious test. This decay is creating a powerful gravitational pull toward assets defined by scarcity and sovereignty, with Bitcoin as the undisputed digital leader. This is the signal. Simultaneously, the internal mechanics of the Bitcoin market are showing signs of short-term fatigue. The warnings from technical indicators like the stochastic oscillator are a reminder that no market is immune to the laws of gravity, that periods of profit-taking and consolidation are a natural and healthy part of any long-term advance. This is the noise. The great challenge, and the great opportunity, for every investor today is to learn to distinguish between the two. The collapse of the dollar is a paradigm shift, while the potential drop in Bitcoin’s price is a cyclical correction. The former defines the destination; the latter describes the terrain along the way. The current divergence is a test of thesis, of timeframe, and of temperament. Those who are shaken out by the short-term noise will likely miss the long-term signal. But those who understand that the dollar’s fall is the very reason for Bitcoin’s rise, and who have the conviction to see the short-term turbulence for what it is, will be best positioned to navigate this great divergence and witness the dawn of a new financial landscape.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln