US100 - Liquidity sweep above the ATHIntroduction
The US100 has been exhibiting a strong upward trend on the daily timeframe ever since the sharp correction in early April. This sustained bullish momentum culminated in a break above the previous all-time high (ATH) earlier today. However, this breakout may not be entirely convincing just yet, as there are signs of a potential short-term reversal. The move above the ATH could represent a liquidity sweep, where price action briefly pushes past a key level before retracing, possibly trapping late buyers.
Liquidity Sweep
On the daily chart, the US100 did succeed in breaching the previous ATH, but the breakout appears to have been short-lived. Price quickly reversed after the new high was printed, leaving behind only a wick above the ATH. This type of price action forms what is commonly referred to as a swing failure pattern, a scenario where the market tests liquidity above a key level before turning back down. Such a pattern often signals upcoming weakness, especially when the breakout lacks strong follow-through or volume support.
4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
During the most recent leg up, the US100 left behind an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) on the 4-hour timeframe. This imbalance zone, created when price moves too quickly in one direction without enough time for buyers and sellers to match orders evenly, often acts as a magnet for price to return to. In the context of the current market structure, this 4H FVG could provide a meaningful support level if the index does experience a pullback. Should the index find support here and show signs of renewed buying interest, the broader uptrend is likely to continue. However, if this zone fails to hold, we may see a deeper retracement toward lower support levels.
Conclusion
While the US100 remains in a strong and well-defined uptrend on the higher timeframes, the recent price action above the ATH introduces the possibility of a short-term pullback. The appearance of a swing failure pattern and the presence of an untested 4H FVG suggest that some corrective movement could unfold in the near term. That said, the FVG presents a key area to watch for bullish continuation. If buyers step in at this imbalance zone, the index could resume its upward trajectory, reaffirming the strength of the current trend.
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USTEC trade ideas
US100 – Extended Rally, Eyes on Pullback to Key SupportUS100 continues to show impressive strength, with no real signs of slowing down yet. The recent push above the previous all-time high came with strong bullish candles and high volume, confirming the breakout as legitimate rather than a false pump. This surge followed a clean retest of the fair value gap below, which acted as a springboard for the next leg higher.
Imbalance Retest and ATH Break
Before the breakout, price perfectly respected the FVG just above the 20,800 zone. That retest was crucial, showing institutional interest in defending higher prices. From there, the index cleared the old ATH with authority, and we are now trading comfortably above it, establishing new highs in the process.
Support Zone Outlook
While momentum remains bullish, the market doesn’t move in a straight line forever. A short-term cool-off is possible. I’m eyeing the marked-out support zone just above 21,400, which previously acted as resistance and now flips to demand. If we do pull back, this is the most logical area for buyers to step back in.
Potential Price Path
The dotted projection outlines two possible paths: one, a minor pullback followed by immediate continuation, and two, a deeper retest into the green support zone before resuming the uptrend. Both scenarios remain bullish as long as price stays above that support. A retest into this level would be healthy and provide a clean long entry for continuation.
Key Levels to Watch
The area around 21,400 to 21,700 is critical. If we revisit this zone, I’ll be watching for bullish price action to confirm continuation. On the upside, we’re now in price discovery mode, so upside targets are more open-ended, but 23,000+ becomes a magnet if momentum stays intact.
Conclusion
US100 is in strong bullish territory, with institutional signs backing the move. A pullback would be welcome and likely provide a high-probability long setup. Until the structure breaks, I remain bullish on this index, watching for a healthy dip into the support zone for potential continuation higher.
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USNAS100 Eyes New ATH as Fed Rate Cut Bets &Ceasefire Fuel Rally USNAS100 OVERVIEW
Wall Street Gains as Rate Cut Hopes and Ceasefire Boost Sentiment
U.S. indices surged on Monday as growing expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in July helped offset market concerns over Middle East tensions.
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran further eased geopolitical risk, supporting bullish momentum on Wall Street.
Forward Outlook:
A combination of dovish monetary policy expectations and geopolitical de-escalation continues to support upside potential in U.S. equities.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – (USNAS100)
The price has stabilized above 22,090, signaling strength and opening the path toward a new All-Time High (ATH) and beyond.
As long as the price holds above 22,090, the bullish trend remains in control.
A break and stabilization below 22,090 would suggest a bearish correction may be underway.
Resistance Levels: 22,210 → 22,280 → 22,460
Support Levels: 21,930 → 21,850
USNAS100 Technical Setup: Watching 21635 and 21835 LevelsUSNAS100 – Technical Outlook
The price has stabilized above the key pivot level at 21635, indicating potential short-term upside toward the resistance at 21835.
However, as long as the price trades below 21835, the broader bias remains bearish. A confirmed 1H close below 21635 would reintroduce downside pressure, targeting 21470 and potentially extending toward 21375 and 21250.
Pivot Level: 21635
Support: 21470, 21375, 21250
Resistance: 21835, 21930, 22090
previous idea:
NASDAQ, USTECUSTEC price is currently near the main resistance level of 22168-22229. If the price cannot break through the level of 22229, it is expected that the price will have a chance to go down. Consider selling the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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US100 Price Analysis: Bearish Reversal Expected After Resistance📉 US100 – Critical Resistance Reached: Expecting Rejection Before Next Leg Up?
🔍 Overview: The US100 has approached a key supply zone around 22,350, where historical price action has shown repeated resistance. This is not just another stall—this level aligns with a liquidity sweep setup and a potential distribution phase forming just below resistance.
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🧠 Technical Breakdown:
🔸 BIOS Breakout: A bullish "Break of Internal Structure" (BIOS) confirmed a shift in market sentiment on June 22, leading to aggressive upside follow-through. However, the recent move into premium pricing hints at overextension.
🔸 Supply & Liquidity Zones: The red zone at 22,300–22,350 is a well-respected supply area. This has already acted as a liquidity magnet, pulling price in and triggering short-term rejections. Smart money could now be engineering a liquidity grab before markdown.
🔸 Projected Path: As outlined on the chart, I expect a false breakout / liquidity sweep followed by a short-term rejection. If price confirms this move, the likely retracement targets are:
🔽 First Target: 22,200 – a minor support from recent structure.
🔽 Second Target: 22,050–22,100 – aligning with the previous breakout zone and Ichimoku cloud support.
🔸 Ichimoku Cloud: The bullish momentum is still intact, but flattening of the cloud top and tightening price action suggest a pause or retracement is near. A cross below the Kijun-sen may confirm the pullback.
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⚠ Invalidation & Alternate Scenario:
A sustained breakout and close above 22,380 with strong volume would invalidate the short bias, potentially targeting 22,500+. Until then, the bias remains bearish to neutral.
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📌 Summary:
🟢 BIOS confirmed bullish structure shift.
🔴 Liquidity grab likely above major resistance.
📉 Expecting short-term pullback toward 22,200.
🚫 Invalidate if price holds above 22,380.
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💬 What I’m Watching:
Rejection candles + volume spikes at resistance
Kijun-sen break on lower timeframes
Bearish divergence forming on RSI/MACD (not shown)
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✅ If You Found This Insightful:
Like, and share your thoughts in the comments—let’s discuss whether this is the start of a rotation or just a healthy pullback!
Tomorrow marks start of downtrend?NASDAQ just swept all-time highs into a key diagonal trendline drawn from previous major swing highs. We’re now in the premium zone of a macro fib retracement, and Asian session is showing signs of accumulation around 22,460.
Expecting London session to run Asian highs, tapping 22,500, which lines up perfectly with:
✅ Major rising trendline resistance
✅ 0.0 fib (ATH)
✅ Asian liquidity sweep
✅ High probability "Manipulation" phase of AMD (Accumulation–Manipulation–Distribution)
Looking to short at 22,500 with a tight SL at 22,520–22,530, targeting a full swing retrace into 20,500.
Confluences:
Bearish AMD setup across sessions
Major trendline rejection zone
Premium fib zone (swing retracement logic)
Liquidity sitting below multiple structural lows
Risk-to-reward of 1:100 potential if held to target
Waiting for confirmation via lower timeframe BOS after the sweep. If 22,500 holds as resistance post-sweep, this could be the beginning of a broader correction.
Let’s see how it plays out. 🔥
"Bearish Setup Emerges: US Tech 100 Faces Critical Resistance📊 Chart Context & Price Structure
The US Tech 100 has been in a rising wedge formation, a classic bearish reversal pattern characterized by:
Higher highs and higher lows converging into a tight range.
Declining bullish momentum, often signaling exhaustion.
Your chart smartly highlights this with a drawn ascending wedge starting around June 24, culminating on June 27. The wedge's upper resistance has just been tested near 22,600, and price is hovering just below this zone.
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🔍 Key Observations
1. Bearish Divergence Potential: Although not explicitly shown, the price action suggests waning momentum. Including RSI or MACD would reinforce this bearish case.
2. Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is above the cloud (bullish), but a kink in the cloud ahead suggests a possible weakness in trend continuity.
A future cloud twist is forming—watch for a potential Tenkan-Kijun bearish cross.
3. Historical Resistance: The red arrows show repeated supply zones near 22,600, where price was previously rejected. This adds strength to the bearish reversal hypothesis.
4. Target Projection:
You’ve marked a clean breakdown target zone around 22,100–22,200.
This is a logical price projection based on the wedge height.
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🛠 Suggestions to Strengthen Your TradingView Post
To elevate this into Editors’ Picks territory:
✅ Title Suggestion:
“US Tech 100 Rising Wedge Near Key Resistance: Bearish Breakdown Imminent?”
✅ Add Commentary (Example):
> "US Tech 100 is testing the apex of a rising wedge pattern near the historically significant 22,600 resistance zone. Despite bullish momentum, the formation is tightening, and Ichimoku cloud future projection shows early signs of weakening trend structure. A break below the wedge support could trigger a drop toward the 22,100–22,200 zone. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and potential Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun crosses."
✅ Enhance Visuals:
Add RSI/MACD below to highlight momentum divergence.
Mark entry/stop-loss/target zones.
Highlight volume activity at wedge apex.
Label the wedge pattern clearly as “Bearish Rising Wedge.”
✅ Engage Viewers with a Question:
> “Will history repeat itself at this resistance level? Or can bulls push through the wedge ceiling?”
---
📈 Conclusion / Trading Plan
Pattern: Rising wedge (Bearish)
Resistance: 22,600
Support/Wedge Break Zone: ~22,400
Target: 22,100–22,200
Bias: Bearish if breakdown confirms with volume
NASDAQ Long-term looks brighter than ever!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a massive Channel Up since the bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis and during the April 07 2025 bottom, a very distinct bullish signal emerged.
The index hit its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 2023. As you can see, since the 2008 Crisis, every time the market rebounded after hitting the 3W MA50, it posted a rise of at least +62.06% before the next time it touched it (and that was on the highly irregular COVID crash).
As a result, we expect to see NDX hit at least 26500 (+62.06%) before a new 3W MA50 test. Chances are we see the market move much higher though.
Note also the incredible bounce it made on the 3W RSI 14-year Support Zone.
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NAS100 Rejection at Trendline Resistance: Pullback ExpectedThe NAS100 (4H chart) shows a rejection near the upward sloping trendline resistance and the marked stop-loss zone around 22,335.4. After a strong bullish rally, price failed to break above the resistance and is now showing signs of a pullback. A correction toward the previous breakout zone and target level of 22,012.1 is anticipated. This move aligns with typical price behavior following a resistance rejection, offering a potential short opportunity with tight risk control.
US100 BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 22,518.7
Target Level: 21,870.2
Stop Loss: 22,949.8
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Pullback before next leg up
NASDAQ’s looking weak short term. We’ve seen multiple rejections from the highs, an M pattern forming on the daily, and RSI divergence creeping in on the daily — momentum is clearly fading. I already took profit around 21980. And a few small swings between the range since 3rd of June.
The rally off the tariff drop was sharp, but it feels mechanical. Bulls look tired here. You can see price is stalling — pushing into the same highs but getting nowhere. Classic signs of distribution.
That said, this isn’t the start of a full-blown bear market. The long-term trend remains bullish. AI investment is still piling into the U.S., tech’s still leading globally, and structurally we haven’t broken down yet. Some weakness is starting to show though.
But short term, I think we see a pullback. The Fed’s still sitting on the fence with rate cuts, which is creating uncertainty. Add that to the current geopolitical tensions, and there’s enough on the table to justify a temporary risk-off move.
If price breaks and closes above 21,860, I’ll reassess and potentially shift back to a bullish bias. Until then, I’m leaning short and letting price action do the talking.
My key downside levels:
TP1: 21,483 — scale out and protect.
TP2: 21,322 — potential bounce from this area.
TP3: 21,145 — structure starts to weaken.
TP4: 20,894 — bears starting to control and a deeper flush, I’ll reassess bias at this level.
SL @ 21850 on my second entry short
Short term: pullback likely.
Big picture: still bullish — but bulls need to reset before any next leg up.
Nasdaq Surges on Ceasefire Hopes – New All-Time Highs Ahead?By analyzing the #Nasdaq chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the index experienced a strong rally following the ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel, climbing as high as 22,200 so far. If the ceasefire holds and tensions continue to ease, we could see a new all-time high for the Nasdaq.
Potential bullish targets for this move are 22,400, 23,200, and 24,000.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Smart Friday Trades: NASDAQ Setup and Key Levels to Watch NAS100📊 NASDAQ US100 Analysis – Friday Setup
I'm currently watching the NASDAQ closely 👀. The NAS100 looks significantly overextended 📈, and with it being the end of the week, we often see price action push into the weekly high before pulling back into the weekly close 🔁.
This is a pattern I’ve seen play out many times during the New York session on Fridays 🗽📉.
💡 Here’s my suggestion:
Wait for today’s data release 📅 to finish. If price ranges and then breaks market structure to the downside, keep an eye out for a short entry on the retrace and retest of the range low.
🎯 Your targets and stop loss are outlined clearly in the video, so make sure to watch it through.
⚠️ Trade sensibly, manage your risk, and don't rush into anything.
I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments 💬
Have an awesome day and I’ll see you in the next one! 🚀
The "True Close" Institutions Don't Talk About — But Trade On█ My Story from the Inside
I worked at a hedge fund in Europe, where I served as a Risk Advisor. One thing I never expected before joining the institutional side of the market was this:
They didn’t treat the current day’s close as the "true" close of the market.
Instead, they looked at the first hour of the next day — once all pending flows had settled, rebalancing was done, and execution dust had cleared — that was the true close in their eyes.
Here’s why that changed everything I knew about trading:
█ Institutional Reality vs Retail Fantasy
⚪ Retail traders are taught:
“The daily close is the most important price of the day.” But institutions operate under constraints that most retail traders are never exposed to:
Orders too large to fill before the bell
Internal compliance and execution delays
Batch algorithms and VWAP/TWAP systems that extend into the next session
So while the market might close on paper at 17:30 CET, the real trading — the stuff that matters to funds — might not wrap up until 09:30 or 10:00 the next morning.
Although the official “close” prints here, institutional volume ends quickly. It drops off sharply, almost immediately. Once the books are closed and final prints are done, big players exit — and what's left is thin, passive flow or noise.
The first hour of the New York session reveals structured flows, not random volatility. This is where institutions finalize yesterday’s unfinished business, which is why many consider this the “true” close.
And that’s the price risk managers, portfolio managers, and execution teams internally treat as the reference point.
█ Example: The Rebalance Spillover
Let’s say a fund needs to offload €100 million worth of tech stocks before month-end. They start into the close, but liquidity is thin. Slippage mounts. They pause execution. Next morning, their algo resumes — quietly but aggressively — in the first 30 minutes of trade.
You see a sharp spike. Then a reversal. Then another surge.
That’s not noise. That’s structure. It’s the result of unfinished business from yesterday.
█ Why the First Hour is a War Zone
You’ve probably seen it:
Prices whip back and forth at the open
Yesterday’s key levels are revisited, sometimes violently
Big moves happen without any overnight news
Here’s what’s happening under the hood:
Rebalancing spillovers from the day before
Late-position adjustments from inflows/outflows
Risk parity or vol-targeting models triggering trades based on overnight data
The market’s not reacting to fresh news — it’s completing its old to-do list.
█ What the Research Really Says About Morning Volatility
The idea that "the true close happens the next morning" isn’t just insider intuition — it’s backed by market microstructure research that highlights how institutional behaviors disrupt the clean narrative of the official close.
Here’s what the literature reveals:
█ Heston, Korajczyk & Sadka (2010)
Their study on intraday return patterns shows that returns continue at predictable 30-minute intervals, especially around the open.
The key driver? Institutional order flow imbalances.
When big funds can’t complete trades at the close, they spill into the next session, creating mechanical, non-informational momentum during the first hour. These delayed executions are visible as persistent price drifts after the open, not random volatility.
█ Wei Li & Steven Wang (SSRN 2010)
This paper dives into the asymmetric impact of institutional trades. It shows that when institutions are forced to adjust positions — often due to risk limits, inflows/outflows, or model-based triggers — the market reacts most violently in the early hours of the day.
When funds lag behind the clock, the next morning becomes a catch-up window, and price volatility spikes accordingly.
█ Lars Nordén (Doctoral Thesis, Swedish Stock Exchange)
In his microstructure research, Nordén found that the variance of returns is highest in the early part of the session, not at the close. This is especially true on days following macro events or at the end/start of reporting periods.
The data implies that institutions “price in” what they couldn’t execute the day before, making the next morning more informative than the actual close.
█ Bottom Line from the Research:
The first hour isn’t wild because it’s full of emotion.
It’s wild because it’s full of unfinished business.
These studies reinforce that price discovery is a rolling process, and for institutional flows, the official close is just a checkpoint, not a final destination.
█ How to Use This as a Trader
⚪ Don't assume the official close is final
Treat it as a temporary bookmark. Watch what happens in the first hour of the next day — that’s when intentions are revealed.
⚪ Volume in the first 30–60 minutes matters
It’s not noise — it’s flow completion. Often non-price-sensitive. Often mechanical.
⚪ Design strategies around “true close” logic
Test fade setups after the first hour’s range is established. That’s often the real “settled” level.
⚪ Use the first-hour VWAP or midpoint as a reference
Institutions may anchor to that — not the official close — for mean reversion or risk metrics.
█ Final Thought
The first hour is not the start of something new.
It’s the conclusion of yesterday’s market.
And unless you understand how institutions truly close their books — and how long that takes — you’ll always be a step behind.
So next time you see chaos at the open, stop calling it random.
👉 It’s just the market putting yesterday to bed — late.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.