LNG1! trade ideas
NGAS - SHORT SCENARIOLast week, fuel inventories in storage rose by 95 billion cubic feet (bcf), surpassing analyst forecasts. Gas futures initially dropped but rebounded by the end of the week. The market expects increased cooling demand in the coming weeks as summer temperatures rise. Gas futures on the Henry Hub are heading for their best month since August. However, the storage build exceeded last year's levels and the five-year average. Total gas in underground storage in the US is significantly higher than last year and the five-year average.
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NATURAL GAS: Short term Sell opportunityNatural Gas got supported on the 4H MA50 yesterday but the rebound seems to be running out of steam. The R1 at 2.697 is so far a Double Top and as the 4H RSI is forming the same bearish pattern as in late May while the 1D technicals are losing strength (RSI = 59.608, MACD = 0.079, ADX = 32.120), we are shorting NG targeting the HL trendline (TP = 2.300).
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Decision day for NGSince NG land on VAH of last bigger sell and additional on a nice loaded value loaded M30 candle we may see a rotation day as fight between sellers and buyers.
However if buy will show strength and lift above 2.50 we may see some run up.
Sell must push below 2.49
so waiting to see the action.
on fundamentals: still some work on LNG terminals in USA, a bit colder weather in TX, hot in Europ, still works on Norway
NATGAS Bearish Correction! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS was trading in an
Uptrend but then hit a strong
Horizontal resistance of 2.683$
While trading in a bearish wedge
Pattern from where the
Price made a nice bearish
Breakout so I think that
Natgas will go down
Sell!
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NG further up with a possible rotation NG is pushing further up. Friday a normal day with some P volume type indication due to open rejection reverse cash session.
NG is in area of single prints built in May (see link below)
We are close to a volume loaded level of 2.693 so we may see fight between sellers, who pressed below buy VPOC and buyers who would like to be back above it.
So next day or days will show if sellers are still there and if they have enough power left.
why not a scenario to open with a gap up to around 2.693 :)
app.screencast.com
NG close to 2.7 area where we may see sellers quitting positions. So 3 ideas for trade:
1. just StopLos covering and this will be with a fire above 2.7 and in case of no continuation we get sell down
2. Liquidation of stops above 2.7 in fast way or with some rotation but in that case we should keep 2.693
3. rotation in range 2.565 to 2.636
Neutral: Bearish continuation or Bullish reversal:Descending TriThe last four trading days saw gas closing lower after attempting to breakout(see prior post) and in so doing, filled the gap created on the 17th of April. I am still long on this and have not closed my swing trade.
Technicals:
chart: A potential descending triangle is forming.
Volume: Massive build up on volume over the last few weeks.
RSI: ...
Whether this will end up being a bearish continuation or be a bullish reversal is a story worth watching.
What ever direction this takes, it will explode.
Disclaimer: Not financial advise.
Bullish Setup in Range-bound MarketNatural gas has been moving within a range, and currently, we are at the lower part of the range.
We are patiently waiting for a shift in market structure (creating a HH). This would indicate a potential upward movement within the range.
Entry Point:
We plan to enter a trade on a pullback (LH) utilizing the (weekly FVG) with the trendline acting as a support.
Target:
Our target is set at the upper end of the range, with tp1 at 50% of the range.
NFA
NG on bust possible to close old gap at 3.00 quite possible in mNG did a nice move not just from technical point of view covering some low value areas but was pushed by:
1. warm weather USA and parts of Europe
2. Nederland closing one of biggest NG field
3. Some maintenance work of gas pipe lines in Norway (for June time)
4. some work on LNG terminals in USA
Gas in Europe jumped as well and this may give push for further moves for the NG
NG has tendence to do a sell after such a jump of 9% after some small up days. So if this time we see a pull back to 2.52 and bid coming back it may be a game changer for next days.
Since NG enters some low value areas ( and single/poor TPOs, sell from 2.8) don't mind we may close gap around 3.oo
below ling to TPOs and foot print chart (here by the way we had 4 M30 blocks with some nice bid so who load there, would for sure try to push price up to distribute this). Hope it works
app.screencast.com
Nat Gas may get bubblyAfter a bottoming process and a reset of the rsi, a surge up is possible here. Nat gas is also at structural support which usually reacts with price in a positive or negative way. Holding here and not getting below 2 dollars would be very positive. If correct, the target is about $3.50
Further possible Long trend in NGlatest move due to weather in TX in USA. Hot time for Europe comas well so this may increase need for NG
yesterday P day profile show some liquidation of long positions, so today all about keeping the VPOC of yesterday and there is more and more bad high building 2.370
But it is too obvious for NG, and NG likes to screw such trades before they work out.
i do not know why, volume profiles are not shown in picture hmmm