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TGD1! trade ideas

Gold December 4th the gold market is the guinea pig because there are some issues with my terminology that need to be clarified. I've been using some incorrect terminology when I use the term bull flag or Bear Flag and I looked it up and that made things worse so I explained here what I mean. also I know people will have problems with my terminology regarding 2 bar reversals. I discovered that pattern and I didn't get it from books but I know the pattern works because other people must be using it.... because it works. so I'm not inventing any tools I'm simply looking at patterns that are reversal patterns in the market that can happen for many reasons and the beautiful thing about a two-bar reversal is that I can use it with a daily chart and a four-hour chart. sometimes the daily chart closest at a high or near the high and that represents 1 bar.... and then the next bar on the opening price produces another bar and the pattern between yesterday's market and today's market May give me a 2 bar reversal. the pattern of that trade requires yesterday's bar and today's bar... so you have a two-bar reversal from a bar generating yesterday with a bar generated today. Oher times you have a 2 bar reversal within 1 day of trading. there is another point to this and that is that some of the best trades happen on the opening price which is a part of the current day and happens when most Traders are not following that market. what I'm saying is not complicated but it takes time to look at these markets and think about the market before you trade the market. this process takes time and you will learn when the conditions are a little more complex and involve opening price trades that you can get a feel for when you enter the market or not.... sometimes you need the market to move a little bit first before you commit.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Can HTF 4Hr Supply Zone Hold N Sellers Purge the Liquidity Lows?COMEX_MINI:MGC1! '2025 For a gr8ter Reward we must go to the valley to CONQUER...' -500KTrey What's the word family. I have been working OVA TIME on building my edge inside the markets for the given assets I trade. I got to myself and understood that in order for me to have a Gr8T HIGH LEVEL Performing Career talking 8 Figures over the course of the next 20yrs I have to build a mechanical system the can survive me the time. So that's what I've been focused on solely. What is my system/ Entry Model/ Edge w/ assets/ Management System! So Here I will break down my thoughts on MGC 'GOLD' and what I see potentially happening this week. Updated 4Hr TF Current PA on 'GOLD' we are trading just underneath the Daily Swing EQ Level call it $2.7K. Keep note that we have a huge unmitigated 4Hr Supply Zone just above EQ level... Pricing $2,715.5 will be the official mitigation of the HTF 4Hr Supply Zone. Our Entry Management #500K Model 1of1 1) HTF Mitigation of the 4Hr Supply Zone (Who Has the Stronger Hand in EOF?) 2) We then drop down to the LTF 15-5m for an Entry Confirmation. So we must watch volume of the footprint charts to see how sellers n buyers interact with each other and we will join the Dominant hand for the ride to Profit... LTF Pro-Trend HP SU is bullish so that means we can put on Full Sized Risk LTF Counter-Trend HP SU is bearish so that means we only put on Half Risk The overall market is Bullish on the HTS'S Weekly/ Daily. We are just currently inside of a Market Correction so it may come across as bearish!! I will keep close update as PA develops this week. Remember Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ CONSISTENTLY!! +Shalom #500K🏁
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by TreyHighPwr
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
What’s Flowing: Gold Short (CONTRACTION?)Gold futures are displaying a bearish trend as margins compress alongside a price decline. This contraction suggests a short-term downside continuation, making it a crucial moment for traders to monitor levels for potential retracement or further drops. Key Observations: 1. Price Action: Gold is trading near the lower boundaries of a consolidation zone, with resistance levels firmly capping upward moves. 2. Compression in Margins: As margins tighten, the market indicates decreasing volatility, creating a conducive environment for strategic short positions. Hedge Opportunity: For traders holding long Gold positions, hedging against further downside risk is now a practical solution. My Gold/Silver Inter-Market Spread Trading PAMM account offers a robust strategy to manage exposure and optimize returns through inter-market hedging techniques. Feel free to reach out to learn more about how to diversify and protect your Gold investments with minimal risk. Reach out for more information on the Gold/Silver Ratio Hedge!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by moneymagnateash
2
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again. Quote from last week: comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. → Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one. short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Title: Gold Futures (GC1!) - Consolidation Under Key ResistanceOn the 1-hour timeframe, Gold Futures are showing signs of consolidation near a significant resistance zone. Here’s the breakdown: Resistance Zone (Upper Blue Area) Price is trading under a clear resistance zone around 2,690–2,700. The rejection here indicates selling pressure at this level. Bearish Trendline (Red Line) A minor bearish trendline suggests weakening momentum, which aligns with the resistance zone acting as a supply area. Support Levels (Lower Blue Areas) Immediate support lies near 2,650, providing potential buying interest if the price pulls back. A stronger support level is visible around 2,620, coinciding with prior price reactions. Potential Scenarios Bearish Case: A breakdown below 2,650 could lead to a further decline toward the next support at 2,620. Bullish Case: A breakout above 2,700 would shift the bias, potentially targeting higher levels like 2,730. Key Levels: Resistance: 2,690–2,700 Support: 2,650 and 2,620 Short Bias: Look for price to sweep above 2,690 and reject the resistance zone. Target 2,650 and 2,620 for potential profits. Long Setup: If price reacts strongly at 2,650, align long trades targeting the resistance zone at 2,690.
COMEX:GC1!
by hakimizai
Gold Futures: Current Analysis (30-11-2024)We are currently developing the impulse (wave C). The 13 MA is below the 55 MA, indicating a slowdown in the movement. In the RSI Difference indicator , the RSI is between the 13 and 55 SMAs and has failed to surpass the 55 SMA, signaling the continuation of the wave C. The final confirmation for this movement will be the 55 EMA turning downward. 🔍 Insights from Weekly Timeframe: Divergences and RSI positioning below both SMAs reinforce the likelihood of a continued downtrend.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Fractanomics
Bitcoin and Gold to Counter InflationConsidering how Gold and Bitcoin surged significantly in response to inflation when it peaked at 9% in June 2022, and given that they are still maintaining their high levels, it seems the fear of inflation is not yet over. Today, I will focus on Gold and strategies to manage this upward trend, which you can also apply to Bitcoin. Mirco Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
How I use Fibonacci extensions Tuesday on this video we take a look at oil and gold... the real purpose is to take a closer look at how I use extensions since you can end up trading with extensions all day long and go crazy. I think that both markets...... gold... and oil.... are contracted markets.. and if I use range boxes to Define where the buyers and sellers are I think there's a little more advantage to the gold market...... but you really want to trade markets that aren't so expanded because they have no range and that means they have less reward.... whether you trade as a buyer or a seller. the good thing is that if you can have a comfortable feeling that the markets contracted it should trigger a Feeling for you to not be so quick to take a trade because a contracted Market is a function of buyers and sellers and that the Market isn't clear since there's no distance between buyers and sellers. if the buyers and sellers are unclear because of what contraction means why would you expect yourself to have a good trade when there's no range?Remember... it is far better to be a chicken because you're not sure where the buyers and sellers are.... versus a dead chicken with chicken parts all over the chart because you were trying to make decisions when the market was ambiguous for both buyers and sellers if it's a contracted Market.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Gold Lost Steam as New US Administration to Take World StageCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) On Monday, gold prices tumbled 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2,619.43 per ounce. COMEX gold futures shed 3.4% to $2,620.8. As a safe-haven investment, gold holds strong appeal with the rise of geopolitical crisis. After the US presidential election, investors anticipated that both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East neared end. The new Treasury pick reduces the risk of escalating trade conflicts, as we have seen in Mr. Trump’s first term. Overall, gold falls on anticipation of lower geopolitical risks in the second Trump presidency. Where would gold prices go from here? I find it useful to analyze the 5-year price trends and identify key factors driving gold prices up and down. From December 2019 to October 2024, golds prices rose 88%. Gold’s recent plunge started in late October, as market anticipated a Trump win. During this five-year period, gold prices have seen significant rises for five times, and major pullbacks for four times. Gold Bull Trends and the Key Drivers: • When the COVID pandemic broke out in January 2020, gold prices rose sharply, and the stock market plummeted. This highlights gold's safe-haven investment function. • In February 2022, gold prices rose in response to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Geopolitical crisis was the key driver. • High inflation in the US, peaked at a 9.1% CPI in July 2022, pushed gold prices to record high. Gold is considered a good hedge for inflation. • In October 2023, the Hamas-Israeli conflict broke out. Gold rallied again as a safe-haven investment. • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a massive 50 basis points at its September 2024 policy meeting, followed by another 25-bp cut in November. With the expectation of more Fed cuts, gold started a new rally in July 2024. The trade logic: Fed cuts reduce the rate of return on interest-bearing assets such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, which on turn makes gold investment more appealing. Gold Bear Trends and the Key Drivers: • China resumed manufacturing activities relatively soon after the pandemic. While the U.S. and Europe were still on lockdown and standstill, Chinese goods were exported to fill the gap. This helped lower the perceived risk of an once-a-century health crisis. Gold prices pulled back as a result. • The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a stalemate. It did not spread to other European countries and escalated into World War 3. The geopolitical crisis has subsided, and as a result, gold prices withdrew from advancing. • After the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, US inflation has finally cooled down. Gold completed its mission as inflation hedge. Consequently, investors pulled money out of gold and into stocks, causing gold prices to fall. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures On November 5th, Mr. Trump won by a landslide and was re-elected as the 47th U.S President. In the following three weeks, he quickly completed the nomination of 15-member Cabinet in his new administration. Based on campaign promises and new Cabinet picks, investors interpret the new Trump policy in a series of the so-called "Trump trades". In my own opinion, these include strong US dollar, weak gold prices and a secular bull market for cryptocurrencies. • The ascension of a political strongman could bring about ceasefires in both the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. As we recall the relatively peace time during the first Trump term, the expected de-escalation of geopolitical crises in his second term could drive gold prices down in the next four years. • The "America First" policy is bullish for US dollar. 1) Bringing manufacturing back onshore would strengthen U.S. economy. 2) High tariffs would reduce trade deficits overtime, although inflation may go up in the short term. 3) Slashing fiscal spending by $2 trillion a year would shore up the government coffer. Combined, these policies would defend the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. The dollar index has risen from 103 to 107 in the past month. A strong dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated gold, as foreign investors would pay more with foreign currencies. • Mr. Trump is a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies. In the past three months, bitcoin has doubled in prices from $50,000 to nearly $100,000. The campaign promise to establishment of a central bank reserve for bitcoin, if materialized, would push crypto prices significantly higher in the next four years. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on November 19th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 502,952 contracts, down 33,029 or -6.2% from prior week. Leading the position cutback is Managed Money, which reduces 10,306 (-5.1%) in long positions and 15,911 (-25.6%) in spreading positions. Movement of the “Small Money” is a good indicator of future price trend. Based on the above analysis, if a trader is bearish on gold prices, he could express his opinions by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Monday settlement price of 2,712.2, each December contract (MGCZ4) has a notional value of $27,122. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Monday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 178,663 contracts and an Open Interest of 51,364. Hypothetically, if gold prices pull back 5% further to 2,576.6, a short position would gain $1,356 (=135.6 x $10). Using initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +118% (= 1356 / 1150). The risk of shorting futures is a rise on gold prices. Investors could lose part or all of their initial margin. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that. Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead. The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460. note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce. Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio. MS
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CityIndex
2024-11-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Neutral. In my weekly outlook I gave the pullback target 2650 and we got 2616. 2600 is the absolut lowest this should go or bulls are in trouble. Best would be to stay above 2620 and then I expect Tuesday or Wednesday another leg up. My target was 2866 but the pullback was much deeper than expected so my upper target is also coming down some. 2800 is still on the table. Will only think about getting bearish below 2540. comment : Will make this quick today. Two paths I think are valid. First one is from my weekly outlook where today was the B from the ABC. C could lead to 2800+. Alternativ is continuation of this triangle for some time. What I don’t see happening is bears breaking below 2500 and continuing down. Bulls would do best to keep this above 2600 and reverse latest from there. Selling is certainly strong enough again to expect more of it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2550 - 2800 bull case: Bulls see this as a 50% retracement of the recent climactic buying from last week. If they allow it to retest 2580 or lower, odds rise that we will continue sideways instead of higher above 2730. 2630 is the worst place to trade, given the current structure. So look for longs only on very strong momentum and a second buy signal or near 2560 again. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case : Bears are printing much better bear bars than bulls do bull bars and on increased volume at that. They want a to retest 2540 and maybe 2500. If they can get it, I doubt many bulls would continue to expect 2800 or even higher prices. Interesting day tomorrow to see where we will go from here. Invalidation is above 2720. short term: Neutral. 50% retracement of recent bull leg is 2630, so don’t trade around that price. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anywhere was good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds