[GC] Gold trade ideaThis trade idea has to be managed in live because we are very high on gold for now but the fondamentals are here and technicals too.
Great Trade !
TGD1! trade ideas
Gold 95239 - Trend directionGold 95239 is moving in raising cutter formation from June 2020. last divergence correction not complete. so we expect price to correct by testing 87900 levels.
Long term gold bull still good even if near current sell zoneFrom 1970 to 1980 I took 2 different fib extension to project the target sell zone for the blow off top and the price hit the target. I used the same fib extensions to give the target sell zone for the current bull market. Then I looked at how extended was the price from the 12 month SMA and it was 57%. Then I made a channel with the at the 12 month SMA and expanded it by 57% from the current and followed the angle of the 12 month SMA. If the price reaches the target sell zone and also is extended to reach the top of the channel this would most like be the blow off top. There are also other trend channels (gold color) that will give top side resistance. The green box in 2000 is the retrace buy zone and since we do not know the exact current top I drew possible bottom retrace buy zones of the next bear way out in the future and will need to be adjusted. This is not trading advise , just my thoughts.
GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ – WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but now… the tide is turning fast.
📉 As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold.
Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz — a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods.
💬 We’ve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven.
US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets — and gold is winning.
Let’s put it into perspective:
➡️ Over the last 20 years:
• Gold is up +620%
• S&P 500 is up +580%
📈 Gold is trading like we’re in a modern depression — quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments.
🧠 The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" — it’s "why didn’t more people see this coming?"
Gold H4: Ending Diagonal Signals ReversalUpdate: Gold formed an ending diagonal in H4, suggesting a wave cycle completion. A pullback for wave (iv) is expected before a new push higher. Watching for key support to hold before wave (v) continuation.
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.
GOLD, Is it 5th Wave?1. Sharp Movement, Steep Trade Angle
2. Length of 3rd Wave is equal to 5th Wave
3. Ascending Channel TGT is completed
4. Divergence in the Price Movement
5. Nifty Price Movement - It is at a breakout point. The Correlation between 2 asset classes is approximately Negative 0.30 to 0.35 post Covid
If this is the case, then price may not move beyond 1 Lakh
This will be a great opportunity to book the profit in gold; it may correct to 70000 or below in the next few months.
Getting close to sell zone for last correction before the major Getting close to sell zone for last correction before the major for this bull run.
Will The Gold Rally End When Large Speculators Buy?A few weeks ago we reviewed Gold price action and positioning and how Large Speculators (blude column and traditionally trend followers) started to sell Gold which I could not explain. Well, they continued to sell Gold futures, and now Gold is breaking out making new all-time highs. If anyone knows who is buying this Gold, please comment and let me know, because it is not Hedge Funds trading with size (aka Large Specs). Small Specs (yellow column) have been buying but their size is so small, not sure that is what is driving price higher.
As Gold continues to be the commodity to watch in 2025, when will the market turn? As long as it is not crowded to the long side, the trend can continue for a while, especially if Large Specs continue to sell. I would keep watching to see when they start buying week over week (not just one week), where they commit to the trend, and hopefully they get max crowded, providing a potential short trade in Gold with high reward to risk ratio. Until then, and as I always say, don't short all-time highs.
Short trade
15min TF overview
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (GC!1 – Gold Futures)
📅 Session: Tokyo to London AM
⏰ Time: 4:45 AM
📉 Pair: GC! 1 (Gold Futures)
🧭 Direction: Short (Sell)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 3324.7
Take Profit (TP): 3288.2 (–1.10%)
Stop Loss (SL): 3331.3 (+0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 5.53 ✅
🧠 Trade Narrative:
A short setup during the transition between Tokyo and London. The trade idea is based on combining session timing with the sweep of Tokyo high, where gold often reacts to macro flow and liquidity grabs for a sellside trade idea.
DXY Bounce Should Yield a Great Buy in Metalsestimated time frame 1-2 weeks to begin a ~1 month correction to a level we have not seen in a while
GOLD is sending a clear signal!TVC:GOLD has been raging for years now and is sending a clear signal!
Are we going higher or are we due for a major correction!
Unpopular opinion, but I think it's time to short GoldThis melt-up is approaching resistance, and the symmetry on the chart is compelling. It could set up a great short opportunity as gold consolidates ahead of its next major move higher, likely in 2027.
However, if it breaks out of the current channel, we could be entering a true melt-up phase — and there's potential for significantly higher prices.
Gold silver coffee4 15 25 I wanted to do this video before the market moved any higher today. I don't know if it's a paradox or not but it looks to me like gold is going to go higher today after it's been coiling since last week and I explained the Dynamics of a coil and the expansion of a coil and hopefully I said it clearly enough that you at least understand my point of view... and then whether it works or not it's a matter of what the market does and I can't change the market. so gold is near an all-time high and it looks like the buyers are coming in to take it higher but as it stands it's hard to know what's going on because it's early in the morning and nothing's really happening ... and my explanation would be that as bullish as the pattern is for gold to go higher it's still contracted. on the other hand silver is not contracted at all it is so expanded that there's a possibility that if silver starts going higher it can have very impressive moves because it's an expanded Market... and they move a lot better with a lot more efficiency than a contracted Market. and the Paradox is that the goal looks like it's going higher to a new high and the silver might go a lot higher because it's expanded. and I'm going to tell you right now if you read this none of it may happen ... but I would be very surprised if gold doesn't go higher... it only takes a few ticks. what really is going to be important to me... his if the silver actually trades the ABC pattern that I put on that chart because that pattern creates a very large Target area that can have tremendous effects on the silver market because it would be driven much closer to its all-time high which is $50.... so if silver goes several points higher there's a good chance it can attract more buyers to drive silver closer to its all time high..... in effect this changes the silver market which is lagging compared to the gold market.
Gold Futures– Expanding Triangle Top HypothesisAs of April 14, 2025, gold has surged to record highs near $3,265, but the technical picture suggests trend exhaustion. Price action resembles a potential expanding triangle top, with bearish divergence on RSI and momentum, declining volume on rallies, and seasonal cycles hinting at weakness into May–June. This may not be a fresh impulse but rather a volatile topping formation. If the triangle pattern holds, we could see a breakdown toward the $2,950–$2,800 zone before another base forms. Short-term traders should be cautious and consider scaling into shorts only on failed bounces near resistance. Longs may want to wait until strong support zones around $2,750–$2,850 show signs of stabilization. Risk/reward now favors defense over chase.
Bearish Divergence Across the Board:
RSI & Momentum indicators failed to confirm new highs
Volume spiked on selloffs, not on breakouts
Possible expanding triangle top forming (ABCDE pattern), often a major topping structure
Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence:
Seasonal weakness into May–June aligns with cycle top
Key retracement targets: $3,045 → $2,950 → $2,870 → $2,800
Support zone to watch: $2,750–$2,850
Trade Strategy Ideas:
Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks)
Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding)
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B)
Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%)
Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone)
Entry Plan (Short Bias):
Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent.
Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption)
Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950
Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone
Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early.
Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months)
Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long
Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025
Buy Zone (if correction unfolds):
Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone)
Entry Strategy:
Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone.
Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support.
Stop Loss: Below $2,700
Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200
Scale Out Strategy:
Scale in between $2,800–$2,750
Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs
Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months)
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction)
Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter.
Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling.
Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential:
Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025.
Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher.
Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns.
📌 DYOR. Not financial advice.
#Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup
Gold Assignment review and Intraday Reversal Market ProfileGold London consolidation and New York meltdown. Explaining the reasons. And OTE fibonacci levels
gold trend direction .. Follow upGold 92870 - Has given a inside bar pattern ( bearish ) and signals are diverged suggests drop to 87300
goodreturns.in wrote :
Market Outlook for Gold Prices in India According to a recent report by FXStreet, "Gold prices may witness a short-term pause as bulls take a breather following an extended rally. The report notes that while the fundamental outlook remains bullish, the metal appears slightly overbought on the daily chart." "From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering just above the 70 level, indicating overstretched market conditions. As a result, analysts suggest that it would be wise for traders to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest price correction before entering new long positions."
Gold Trade Review – Potential Pop, Drop, then ATH's SetupWe are currently watching a potential pop and drop and potential ATH scenario developing in gold. Price is holding above a key daily level at $3,021.4 , which will serve as the critical pivot area. A sustained move below this level will likely trigger continuation toward the next significant daily level at $2,968.5 for T1, and potentially further into the weekly/daily support zone at $2,953.2 , with an extended target at the daily level of $2,929.0.
I would expect that zone to provide support, though there is an untested area lower near the recent lows at $2,893.6. Ideally, I do not want to see price move much beyond our first weekly/daily support zone mentioned above but would lean on the lower level as a last ditch effort to hold the structure.
From the current price structure, based on Fridays close there's also potential for a move higher into (#1) $3,058 , which is an untested daily level (approached from below). If this level acts as firm resistance, it could trigger the anticipated drop into the zones outlined above. Keeping an eye on being above or below $3,021.4 will be critical for progression in either direction.
Possible big short on Gold?Definitely not looking to buy at current prices. COT data showing significant decrease in NC positions and they've been getting out of their longs. Weekly RSI divergence as well. Hasn't had a meaningful higher low in weeks.
Gold outlook for next week. Expecting massive bullishnessCrosshairs on $3800. Extremely bullish on gold after this weekly closure
Gold trend directionGold 93887 has given V patten inside raising flag pattern. Based on chart formation we find the move could be a possible trap with 90587. We expect Gold to drop to test 90587 initially before the flag pattern break down and drop down to our earlier target .
News : supply of gold has increased, demand has decreased. Central banks worldwide are expected to slow their pace of acquisition. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 71% of central banks plan to either reduce their gold reserves or maintain current levels.
Liquidity Concern :"We're getting a lot of stress in the gold market because of liquidity concerns and margin covering by speculators," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Gold heading towards $3,700With international tensions escalating and the tariff war between the United States and China, it seems that the path to gold reaching the $3,700 range has become smoother.
Long due Precipitous Drop in DXY is Making Gold Unstoppable? DXY tanking has gold making a higher high after a 20 week intermediate cycle. Is this a false breakout or the next leg up?
