Gold's OUTPERFORMANCE over silver is unrelenting!Gold's OUTPERFORMANCE over silver is unrelenting!
This ratio has a higher chance of unwinding AFTER the stock markets enter a bear market and bottom.
Could take a while.
TGM1! trade ideas
Bullish Breakout for Gold???Waiting to see what they want to do. Price was bullish all day yesterday and Im trying to see if they want to give a pullback before continuing with the action. I know its best to just wait for the killzone to get the best entry.
Gold Hourly & 4H Analysis UpdateGold CMP 3290
Yesterday on the Hourly chart , Gold gave a Buy Signal at 3257 , and today it rallied up to 3395 — a clear momentum of 138 points . It also gave a fresh breakout on the 4H time frame , indicating strong upward momentum.
Currently, resistance is seen at the 3420 levels .
If Gold breaches 3420 , we could see further upside toward 3450–3465+ levels .
However, failure to breach 3420 may trigger a reversal .
Positional traders can continue to Hold Gold positions with a Stop Loss at 3355 levels
GOLD Potential ReversalIt appears that we've reached a significant top in the market, with price action showing signs of a potential dump. Liquidity has been taken out at this level, and we are now looking at lower price targets, which align with the lines below, marking new liquidity points. These areas could serve as key support levels as the market tests them for further reaction.
The price structure suggests a possible drop to the target zones around 3,300 / 3,200 & 2970 where we could see renewed buying interest. Stay cautious as we approach these levels, as they may present opportunities for short entries ahead of the market correction.
Keep an eye on the evolving price action for further confirmations.
Multiple markets Monday the gold came to a 382 which means we should be looking for sellers even though there's no real evidence of selling even to this point at 12:30 p.m. on Monday. I have a bias that the smart money is going to drive the gold lower...... but I need more evidence from the sellers. I think there are similar issues with the ES
Gold's Correction May Not be Over Yet - Here's WhyHere is my 2-minute technical take on why gold could be looking at a break below 3200 as part of a deeper correction, before it even considers resuming its almighty bullish rally.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Gold Should complete the Retrace before giving another DirectionWas expecting the pullback. Now I just need to wait for it to finish before trying to buy it. Price should give us a solid confirmation when its finally ready. want to see them take out some lower levels first. If price gives up a entry during Asia session we could see a nice short.
Price currently Bullish...But will it continue for the week?This is bullish price action i was expecting. Im just now waiting for a solid area for entry. Just have to wait for the killzones and things to line up inside of the killzone. cause outside of the killzones its nothing but chop and impulsive action that can throw you off.
Session Realtime BarJust an idea for better visuals, use 2 of the SessionBar indicator on the chart use the spacing setup with the active bar to the left of the overnight bar in the other indicator...
One indicator for the Active Session Bar: indicating the current session bar.
2nd indicator for the Overnight Session Bar: indicating the overnight session bar.
Retrace Complete...but we need 1 more Sweep on Gold!This pullback is what I waited for and it took all week for it to happen. Not sure if I will get the bullish move today being that it is Friday. But if they hit the level I'm looking for I will try at least once. Keeping expectations low since its the end of the week. but things are shaping out for us to have a STRONG bullish week next week.
Gold Setup: Range or Rip? Here's the PlaybookGold’s been on a tear lately — driven by safe haven demand as real yields soften and global uncertainty lingers.
But here’s where things get interesting...
We’re now watching what could be a textbook head and shoulders pattern start to take shape.
📊 Current Range:
Right now, price is stuck between 3380 and 3280 — and it’s acting like it knows it.
⚡ Possible Scenarios:
🔁 Scenario 1: Range Play
Short near 3380
Long near 3280
Let it ping-pong and catch the edges.
📈 Scenario 2: Breakout Long
Confirmation above 3380
Look for momentum follow-through into 3420+
📉 Scenario 3: Breakdown Short
Break below 3280
Eyes on the 3220s for a potential flush
🧠 The key? Drop to the lower time frames near these zones and wait for clean setups during active sessions — especially NY open or post-data volatility.
💬 How are you playing this? Breakout or bounce? Drop your take 👇
#gold #tradingview #futures #technicalanalysis #metals #xauusd #tradingstrategy #macro
A Gap In gold Needs to be Filled! Price opened gaping down. Now im looking for price to fill in that gap. establishing a low for the week and continue pushing up. Possibly going for new ATHs. We have to allow Monday to play out though to see what they want to do.
Trade Plan – MGC (Micro Gold Futures) | Sunday, May 4Trend Bias (Multi-Timeframe Analysis):
• 1W: Bullish – Strong macro uptrend with pullback off all-time highs.
• 1D: Bearish – Lower highs and lower lows forming after topping out at $3,509.
• 4H: Bearish – Clean downtrend continuation forming.
• 1H: Bearish – Price rejected lower highs, now curling down again.
• 15M: Bullish – Short-term bounce from $3,210 low, but corrective in nature.
Trade Setup:
• Direction: Short
• Entry Zone: $3,250 – $3,260
• Price has retraced to a lower-high zone under supply; aligns with hourly resistance.
• Stop Loss: $3,270
• Just above 1H structure and 15M failed high.
• Take Profit: $3,210
• Prior swing low and liquidity zone.
Gold monthly RSI super highDaily
Rejection at the psychological 3500 level
Bulls need to hold 3200 level (previous volume spike)
Weekly
Bulls need a higher weekly low
Monthly
Monthly RSI super high
Bulls May monthly high
Bears need a lower high
Conclusion
Stay in cash
Gold- at the CUSP of making history!!Chart Analysis:
Instrument: Gold Futures (1-hour timeframe)
Key Patterns Identified:
Flag & Pole Pattern: A sharp upward move (pole) followed by a consolidation (flag) indicating potential continuation.
Rounding Bottom: A gradual rounding formation indicating accumulation and potential upward movement.
Sloping Trendline Resistance: Marked as a diagonal dashed line indicating an area where price might face resistance.
Key Levels:
97,579: A horizontal resistance level that is crucial for breaking upward.
99,999: A major resistance level, with a note that closing above it could push prices to 106,000.
Gap Zone: Indicated with a query if it will be filled, implying a possible pullback before a further move.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI is around 53, indicating a neutral momentum.
The RSI-based moving average is around 47.43, suggesting that the price might still consolidate before a directional move.
Summary:
The chart suggests a potential bullish continuation if Gold Futures close above the 99,999 mark.
The presence of a rounding bottom supports a bullish bias, but the gap highlighted raises caution about a potential retracement.
Traders might watch for a breakout above the sloping trendline or a gap fill before positioning.
Gold Future AnalysisFriday & Monday Gold Has Created a Response Supply & Demand, Where the Market Broken Supply With Good Volume Where We Can See a Good Buyers or Bulls Stepped In & expected the market to test 98940 in couple of weeks
GOLD LONG IDEA for next week - targeting growth**Direction:** **LONG**
**LONG Targets:**
- **T1 = $3280**
- **T2 = $3320**
**Stop Levels:**
- **S1 = $3220**
- **S2 = $3190**
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Gold.
**Key Insights:**
Gold has continued as a refuge for capital amidst macroeconomic uncertainties, maintaining a strong bullish momentum due to increasing inflationary pressures and global geopolitical tensions. Market experts suggest the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary tone may further fuel demand for Gold, coupled with a weakening US dollar that enhances attractive price levels. The recent trend shows heightened levels of institutional buying, signaling potential for upward movement. Favorable seasonality and demand during market risk cycles enhance its appeal.
Recent supply dynamics, driven by mining constraints and costly extraction levels, contribute to a limited Gold supply market scenario. With central bank reserves gradually accumulating Gold to hedge risks, we anticipate robust demand levels supporting prices. Analysts highlight that hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds show extreme interest towards additional Gold allocation—advising LONG strategies with focus...
Whats the direction for the Week? We should wait to see...Looking for price to go Bullish...But i need to allow Monday to play out first to give us a solid direction. They could go bullish early or they could pull back to give a lower entry first.
Gold-Silver Ratio: Silver’s Lag and Historical DivergencesThe gold-silver ratio - the number of silver ounces equals in value to one ounce of gold – has surged recently as gold prices rally while silver underperforms. Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has climbed to record highs amid economic uncertainty, whereas silver, which is partly an industrial commodity, has struggled to break past $35/oz. As a result, the ratio is around 100 – meaning gold is ~100 times the price of silver despite the correction in the ratio from its peak around 125.
For context, the ratio averaged 57 from 1975-2000, and between 2000-2025 the ratio has ranged from 32 and 125 (with the max level reached this month with an average of 68. The ratio has observed extreme spikes in unusual crises).
Today’s elevated ratio highlights the divergence between gold’s sharp rally and silver’s lagging performance. The 25-year mean of the ratio is at 68, suggesting the present levels (100) represent an extreme deviation in favour of gold.
Historical Parallels in Gold-Silver Divergences
Similar wide divergences between gold and silver have occurred in the past. Key historical episodes illustrate how silver eventually played “catch-up” after lagging gold – albeit with varying lag times:
1970s – Silver’s Late Surge: After the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold prices soared while silver lagged. However, silver eventually staged a sharp rally later in the decade, quickly closing the gap and driving the gold-silver ratio sharply lower.
1980s – Prolonged Underperformance: Following the 1980 peak, precious metals collapsed, with silver suffering far more than gold. The gold-silver ratio surged and remained elevated through the 1980s and 1990s, as silver failed to catch up and largely moved sideways until the 2000s.
Early 2000s – Post-Recession Catch-Up: After the 2001 recession, gold began a
new bull market while silver initially lagged. Eventually, silver outpaced gold’s gains over the next several years, significantly narrowing the gold-silver ratio.
2008 Financial Crisis – Sharp Divergence and Recovery: The 2008 crisis caused gold to outperform sharply as silver collapsed. However, as the economy recovered, silver staged a dramatic rebound, quickly closing the gap and normalizing the ratio by 2011.
Why Is Silver Lagging Now? Industrial Demand Uncertainty
Roughly half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, photovoltaics, chemicals). Persistent worries about a global manufacturing slowdown and elevated inventories have capped silver’s upside just as investors have chased gold for geopolitical protection.
Source: Silver Institute
Worries about industrial demand have been exacerbated by the recent trade uncertainties which impact industrial sectors in an outsized manner.
By contrast, gold’s appeal as a safe haven has been boosted by geopolitical and inflation fears, driving it to record highs in 2025.
Despite cyclical swings, the underlying secular trend has crept higher for decades. Gold’s monetisation (central-bank reserves, ETF holdings surge) versus silver’s demonetisation, higher real production costs for gold, and silver’s growing industrial elasticity are all factors that represent a risk to normalization of the GSR.
Even a forceful mean-reversion might therefore stall nearer 60–70 than the sub-40 extremes of earlier cycles.
Hypothetical Trade Setups
History shows that once macroeconomic uncertainty clears, silver often recovers lost ground quickly. In previous periods of extreme gold-silver divergence, from the 1970s through 2008, silver staged strong rallies that pushed the gold-silver ratio (GSR) back toward normal levels.
Today, however, silver’s outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, particularly amid the ongoing trade war. Prices risk stalling below resistance around $35/oz. Consequently, the normalization in the GSR may instead result from a correction in gold prices. Gold has consistently broken record highs, and its long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Nevertheless, concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally are valid - last week, gold fell sharply after setting a new high above $3,500/oz.
In summary, a normalization in the GSR could result from either a silver rally or a gold correction. While each path remains uncertain, a position focused on the ratio itself is relatively insulated from further divergence.
Given this environment, we could express our view in GSR through a long position in silver and a short position in gold. Investors can implement this using CME Micro Silver and Micro Gold futures. This setup benefits from 72% margin offsets. The Micro contracts balance the notional value between both legs by using one contract each.
A hypothetical trade setup consisting of a short position in CME Micro Gold futures expiring in June (MGCM2025) and a short position in CME Micro Silver futures expiring in June (SILM2025), offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x, is described below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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Agree to disagree... Gold is topping right now.My price path seen above is a complete guess but it stems from long term trend lines and more importantly order flow from last week.
On Thursday there was a #1 trade on AMEX:PHYS for $200+ Million at the green levels in my chart above (Equivalent levels). PRICE WILL 100% go to my green lines by end of this week 04/25.
We are over shooting the dark pool sale but a lot, however, this is always to trap retail and create fomo/peak fear.
In the correction/recession cycles, gold ALWAYS TOPS LAST before the crash...
