Gold vs Inverted Dollar IndexThis is what I was talking about... note that the dollar index is inverted (upside down).
For the past week, most of the move in gold is due to the movement in the dollar index because we're looking at gold futures in dollars.
Dollar tanks, then gold futures goes up in dollars. It may just stay flat in terms of Euros or francs.
So basically I got lucky shorting it last week, lol. The dollar bounced.
TGM1! trade ideas
Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses.
I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week!
- R2F Trading
Long trade
15min TF overview
Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) Long Position
Entry Price: 3468.9
Profit Target: 3509.6 (+1.17%)
Stop Loss: 3462.2 (–0.19%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.07
Target Liquidity High: 3509.8
🕔 Entry Time: 5:05 AM
📅 Date: Tuesday, 22nd April 2025
🌍 Session: London AM
⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF
Trade Reasoning
Intraday Market Structure:
The 5-minute timeframe revealed a bullish internal break of structure, signalling a short-term reversal and favouring buy-side continuation. Price had formed a higher low, respecting bullish structure and suggesting accumulation.
Gold's Surge: Flight to Safety or Foreshadowing Fear?🚨 Gold just saw its largest weekly inflow in history as shown in the chart by BofA Global Research. The metal is soaring above $3,400/oz while most other assets are crashing hard.
This isn't just bullish momentum — it's panic capital. When fear dominates markets, investors rush to safety. And historically, that safety has always been gold.
But here’s the catch: when fear becomes too crowded, even safe havens can become dangerous. If gold fails to hold these levels and begins to correct, it won’t be a slow bleed — it’ll be a free fall, and a lot of people will get caught.
💬 What do you think? Is this just the beginning of gold’s golden age, or are we seeing the early stages of a bubble?
Long term gold bull still good even if near current sell zoneFrom 1970 to 1980 I took 2 different fib extension to project the target sell zone for the blow off top and the price hit the target. I used the same fib extensions to give the target sell zone for the current bull market. Then I looked at how extended was the price from the 12 month SMA and it was 57%. Then I made a channel with the at the 12 month SMA and expanded it by 57% from the current and followed the angle of the 12 month SMA. If the price reaches the target sell zone and also is extended to reach the top of the channel this would most like be the blow off top. There are also other trend channels (gold color) that will give top side resistance. The green box in 2000 is the retrace buy zone and since we do not know the exact current top I drew possible bottom retrace buy zones of the next bear way out in the future and will need to be adjusted. This is not trading advise , just my thoughts.
GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ – WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but now… the tide is turning fast.
📉 As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold.
Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz — a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods.
💬 We’ve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven.
US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets — and gold is winning.
Let’s put it into perspective:
➡️ Over the last 20 years:
• Gold is up +620%
• S&P 500 is up +580%
📈 Gold is trading like we’re in a modern depression — quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments.
🧠 The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" — it’s "why didn’t more people see this coming?"
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.
Unpopular opinion, but I think it's time to short GoldThis melt-up is approaching resistance, and the symmetry on the chart is compelling. It could set up a great short opportunity as gold consolidates ahead of its next major move higher, likely in 2027.
However, if it breaks out of the current channel, we could be entering a true melt-up phase — and there's potential for significantly higher prices.
GOLD MCX MINOR RESISTANCEGOLDMCX
Gold Mcx has seen huge bull run today on 10th April 2025 (Thursday), Looking at the chart it can be clearly seen yellow metal on MCX is trading in upwrad trending channel pattern and around 92400-92500 Channel Pattern Resistance can be observed. There can be some profit booking seen from current levels, One can get out of long positions and reenter long position once GoldMCX closes above 92500, till then book profits on Long positions, or sell Gold MCX with Small stoploss of 92600
We might get a play on Gold soon! Been waiting for price to come for these levels for almost a month now. Now that we are finally here I'm just trying to keep my cool and wait for things to line up inside of the killzone. We could get a nice bullish swing here. We just have to wait for price to show us thats what it wants to do.