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TGSB1! trade ideas

Don't Mind Me, I'm Just Confirming My Soyboy BiasThis recent breakout in soy has similarities to previous moves which have gained a lot more than this one currently has in terms of percentage gain and cents/bushel gain. These differences are noted on the top price chart. Indicator Similarities: Volume increasing after making a new high Stochastic shooting up from below 50 without pause into overbought territory Directional Movement Index achieving a large spread between +DM and -DM The bottom indicator is a custom pine script indicator that shows the ADX (white), ADXR (blue), and the spread of the +DM and -DM in histogram format. The price chart colorization is based on this spread being above (green), inside (yellow), or below (red) the gray box which is a zone that makes sense from a historical-performance standpoint. One concern I have is that the ADXR level is low and ideally it would be above 20 which is the dotted line. The good news is that it is quickly rising and the first breakout from last August which is the most important one started with a similar setup.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Skipper86
Week 18: ZSK2021 Consolidation .. wait for a break The big drop last week was not sustainable; it was a big seller momentum but the price did not manage to breakthrough $15.20 level; it failed twice (double bottom). Therefore, currently the price is in range $15.20 to $16.00. On the side note, in H4 (as I write this), the current 3 candles are pushing higher with a small gap in between; it shows the Buyers are back in the game and pushing hard. The question is whether this push will break $16.00 to create a Higher High, we shall see.
CBOT:ZSK2021
by machintose
Week 17: ZSK2021 No point of return sighted (yet)Last week right after the Asian market open, the weekend gap was filled, our $1440 Decision Point level was breached and it went up to the moon. There were no sign of weaknesses yet, bullish momentum was strong on each upward push. Today the market was opened with a gap up again and as I am writing this, there is no sign of reversal yet; therefore we stay put and see the price action in the next few candles. My new pivot line is at $1536. Let me know if you have other views or comments.
CBOT:ZSK2021
by machintose
3
bean predictions beans are going through a special time as this time period is really in the air. For example rains in the midwest have been good and planting has been good for most illinois and eastern iowa. However contract months like September are very very interesting as the USA is slowly losing many of its soybean stocks and we will be eating into carryover soon if not already. If this summer year is dry I believe beans go past the teens. China is one of our biggest enemies as flash sales and maybe even importation of beans is what the USA will have to do if the buying doesn't stop. I'm staying long with many 1400 sep calls but im also synthetically short futures
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by abeanguy
3
Week 14: ZSK2021 Uptrend Channel before it dropsSorry for the late post .. let's get to it. Based on the price movement last week, here is what I saw: (1) Strong bullish movement driven by the news, but it still did not break the previous High. (2) The Seller is pressing the price down from the top (Thursday, 01 April 2021), it shows that $14.44 is holding it's level. (3) As indicated last week, my support level is now at $14.10 From here, I am expecting some consolidation in the form of uptrend channel until the price is making a Lower High; then it is time for us to Short the market. This week my Pending Order: Sell Limit at $14.35 Stop Loss at $14.51 Take Profit at $13.90 Risk Reward Ratio: 2.66R Let me know if you have other opinions, we can discuss it in the comment sections.
CBOT:ZSK2021
by machintose
3
What's with these high Soybean Prices?!Soybean futures have been trending higher since reaching a low of $8.0825 per bushel in April 2020. The rally intensified when the price rose above the $9.50 level in late August. The move over the February 2018 high and critical technical resistance level at $10.71 in October set the oilseed futures on a path for beans in the teens for the first time since 2014. After trading to a high of $14.60 on the May contract on March 8, May soybean futures pulled back below the $14 level to a low of $13.6425 on March 30. The very next day, the beans exploded in the most significant rally of this year. May futures moved over 90 cents higher from the March 30 low to the April 1 high before pulling back to the $14 level. In any commodity, trading ranges tend to widen as the price appreciates. In soybeans, we are now going into the 2021 crop year as farmers will be planting the seeds that feed the world this month. Last week’s rally came as the US Department of Agriculture surprised traders with their planting forecast. The USDA planting report lights a bullish fuse On March 31, the USDA reported that farmers plan to plant soybeans on 87.60 million acres. While the number was higher than the USDA’s 2020 intentions of 83.51 million, it was far lower than the average trade estimate of 89.996 million acres. The USDA also said that farmers would plant 91.144 million acres of corn, below the average trade estimate of 93.208 million. The report lit a bullish fuse under the soybean and corn futures markets, pushing corn to a new and higher high at $5.85 per bushel on April 1, the highest price since July 2013. Meanwhile, the continuous soybean futures contract rose to a new marginal high of $14.5625. The last time the beans reached that level was in June 2014. The buying runs out of steam- Backwardation in the beans After reaching the most recent high, soybeans moved back to the $14 level at the end of last week. As the daily May futures chart highlights, beans rose to a new high on the highest volume of 2021 when over 410,000 contracts changed hands. The move had all the hallmarks of a short-term blow-off top in the bean futures arena. Farmers likely used the rally to do some hedging. Source: Barchart May soybeans settled at $14.02 per bushel on April 1. The new-crop November contract settled $1.3825 lower at $12.6375. The backwardation or discount between beans for nearby delivery and for the new crop that is going into the ground reflects both nearby tightness and optimism that the 2021 crop will satisfy the ever-growing demand for the oilseeds, which could be a leap of faith. Expect lots of volatility as we are now at the start of the season of uncertainty The soybean price during the fall harvest will depend on the weather conditions across the US’s fertile plains. A drought or any other event that interferes with crop progress over the coming weeks and months could push prices far higher. In 2012, drought conditions moved nearby soybean futures to an all-time peak of $17.9475 per bushel. The next levels of long-term technical resistance in the bean market stand at the May 2014 $15.3675 high and the July 2013 $16.30 peak, which is the gateway to a challenge of the 2012 record high in the oilseed futures. Any weather problems that interfere with crop progress could potentially push beans out of the teens, on the upside for the first time. Meanwhile, one of the critical factors for global soybean demand is China. The Chinese are rebuilding the hog population, which requires soybean meal, the primary ingredient in animal feed. Reports of another outbreak of African Swine Fever could weigh on the demand over the coming months. Meanwhile, if the Chinese turn out to be significant buyers, we could see a continuation of the rally that began one year ago, even if the US crop is robust. Expect lots of two-way volatility in the bean market over the coming weeks and months as we enter the 2021 crop year. Price volatility can create a nightmare for producers and consumers looking to control costs. However, high levels of price variance are a paradise for nimble traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
CBOT:ZSK2021Long
by Andy_Hecht
Week 13: ZSK2021 Wait for a Support BreakLast week the highest price was just at $14.35 ... just a shy $0.05 away from our bomb shell. Anyway it was not triggered and it keeps going down after reaching $14.35 The market was closed at the SR Flip area at $14.00 (see on H4), it was doji and so far no buyers sighted in the market (Asian morning session). Here are the few scenarios : (1) Market bounce at SR Flip ($14.00), likely it will find the previous level which is at $14.09 If $14.09 is broken, it means the buyer is back in the market. (2) The price continues going to South, the last buyer defend was at $13.90 level. This is where we can place our Pending Order (Sell Stop); once it broke, the gravity will help to pull the price going even lower. (3) Certainly, the last scenario is ranging / sideways; this usually happen towards end of the month or a week before WASDE report release. The price may consolidate prior making a big move. This week, I will go for scenario #2 where I will place a Pending Sell Stop Order. Stop Loss is at $14.20 Pending Order (Sell Stop) is at $13.90 Take Profit is at $13.22 RRR: 2.27R If you are well versed in Price Action, we can take the opportunity to scalp during the week. Have a good weekend ahead, this week is a short week. If no clear setup, just avoid it, enjoy your Easter holiday.
CBOT:ZSK2021Short
by machintose
5
Week 12: ZSK2021 Ranging with a slight bullishLast week our target at $1440 had not been achieved, the price went down and made a retracement at the end of the week. Overall it is not a Sell yet, we are still within Buyers area ($13.90 to $14.24). The immediate Decision Point (DP) is at $14.24 where if it breaks, then we anticipated that it will go to our $14.40 level (which we will sell). If it doesn't break, then it will range within the buyer area. My view remains the same as last week, we look for the opportunity to short and feel free to scalp it while it is ranging. If you have a different view, let's discuss it at the comment area below.
CBOT:ZSK2021
by machintose
5
Practice Labeling Initiative and Responsive Price Action.Rounding out Chapter 1 of the book "Price Action Breakdown..." I am asked to label moves as initiative and responsive based on how the author has described initiative and responsive. From his perspective initiative is when buyers/sellers decide that price is no longer agreeable and take the initiative to move it up or down, hence the name initiative. Responsive is when price pokes out of a Value Area only to come back into it abruptly (see excess price/tails). Another way to think of this would be trend continuation moves vs movement back towards control point. This lesson didn't really hit home for me. I still think the point of control is the most valuable bit of information I have gleaned from this book so far, but I am waiting to hear how the author will work initiative vs responsive into the context they are building. I can definitely see why traders are comfortable in the value area. Trading the initiative moves makes me feel like I'm about to get on a terrifying carnival ride and there's nothing to hang on to. That'll do it for today.
CBOT:ZSK2021Long
by emehoke