Soybeans shorts always at the 0.618 levelSimply trailing the short exit stop above the two hour high
TGSB1! trade ideas
soybean shortU.S. corn futures fell to two-week lows and new-crop soybeans hit a six-month low on Thursday on improving crop weather in the Midwest and news of a deal to restart Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports, traders said.
GRAINS-Corn, soy, wheat fall on U.S. crop weather, Ukraine exports pact muabanphaisinh.vn
Soybeans Threatening the Recent Lows Soybeans
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 203,500 MT for 2021/2022 and 254,700 MT for 2022/2023. Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Technicals: The 200-day moving average has held as support over the last few weeks, but it's looking as though that may be coming to an end with prices threatening the low end of the range from July 5th and 6th. A break and close below this pocket could take us closer to the psychologically significant $14.00 handle.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560***
Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼
Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans market continue on fallingDear investors, last week soybean market confirmed the start of a bear market, and through my analysis, I concluded that the price level of ZS shows a high probability to continue its downfall next week towards the 120s.
Contact me for more details.
Soybeans Finishing Intermediate Wave 4 with Bearish Seasonality
Soybeans are currently in minor wave D of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once soybeans break out of the triangle, they will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 1212'4 (0.5 Fibonacci level) area for November soybeans, possibly lower.
This is also happening during the summer months when soybean prices typically decrease. If you bought soybeans on July 20 and sold soybeans on September 28 every year for the past 8 years, you would have lost money for 6 of those years (75%).
Crop Conditions DeclineSoybeans
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 362,622 metric tons, roughly 4,000 more than last week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 61%, 1% lower than last week. 48% of the crop is blooming.
Technicals: August soybean futures ran up into our congestion pocket yesterday, which we had listed as 1513 ¼-1516 ½. The market was unable to get out above this pocket which led to some profit taking into the close. That profit taking has continued into the overnight and early morning trade, as prices retreat to give back all of yesterday’s gains. The 200-day moving average has acted as good support over the last two-weeks, we will see if it holds again. That comes in at 1466 ¼. As with corn, our bias remains Neutral as we see short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560***
Pivot: 1495-1505
Support: 1466 ¼**, 1444-1452**, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
August Soybean Futures Update
Soybeans
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,717 futures/options contracts through July 12th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 17,257 contracts. This shrinks the net position of Managed Money to 95,711 contracts.
Technicals (August) : Soybeans have been frequent flyers of the 200-day moving average recently, which has held as good support. Futures are higher in the early morning trade, testing the upper end of the back half of last week's trade. If the Bulls can sustain this momentum through the open, we could see an extension towards the psychologically significant $15 handle and above that, our congestion pocket near 1515.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560***
Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼
Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On The EdgeSoybeans
Fundamentals: Chinese GDP missed expectations last night, coming in at .4% in the second quarter from a year ago. Analysts were expecting growth at 1%. Retail sales in China rose more than expected, to 3.1%. On deck is U.S. retail sales, 7:30 AM CT. This will likely have an impact on outside markets, which have recently had an impact on money-flow in commodities. Expectations are for .8% month over month.
Techncials: August soybeans continue to linger near the 200-day moving average, trading on it for 7 out of the last 9 sessions. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 1452-1461 ¼. A break and close below here could lead to a retest of last week’s lows. If the Bulls can continue to defend support, the first upside objective would be 1495-1505. With that said, our feelings on soybeans are similar to corn, where we think there could continue to be multiple short-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1495-1505*, 1513 ¼-1516 ½, 1530-1538*, 1552 ¾-1560
Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼
Support: 1413 ¾-1424 ¼, 1400-1403**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean futures - shortShort-term sell, a perfect flat structure (3-3-5).
Trade safe, mind your stops
SOYBEAN FUTURESVery strong downward momentum and God willing to continue its strong descent and achieve good bottoms
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 1540'4
Pivot: 1494'0
Support : 1424'6
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 1494'0 in line with the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1424'6 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1540'4 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 1540'4
Pivot: 1494'0
Support : 1424'6
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 1494'0 in line with the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1424'6 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1540'4 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
Soybeans Gap Higher, Will it Hold?Soybeans
Technicacls: The market sling-shotted higher last night. Our first resistance in Friday’s report was 1495-1505. Our next resistance pocket didn’t come in until 1560-1566, which the market came very close to tagging last night. As with corn, we are in the sell rallies camp. A conviction close or consecutive close back above $16.00 would neutralize that bias. First support/our pivot point comes in from 1513 ¼-1516 ¼.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1513 ¼-1516 ½
Support: 1495-1505***, 1452-1457***, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean: another pullback after breakout?Soybean price rebounded from previous swing high
Price may retest trendline above and probably breakout before another pullback into the range.
Bearish momentum may go a bit further..
Soybeans Treading Near Significant Levels Soybeans
Seasonal Trends in Play: Short November soybeans from 7/1-8/31. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 40 cents, or $2,000 per one 5,000-bushel contract.
Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 63%, this is a 2% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is 4% better. 3% of the crop is setting pods and 16% is blooming. Weekly export inspections came in at 354,987 metric tons, below the range of estimates.
Technicals: Soybeans got taken to the woodshed yesterday, breaking below the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement. That forms a pocket form 1452-1457. If the Bulls can chive a close back above this pocket, we could see an attempt at filling the gap from yesterday's open, that comes in from 1495-1505. A failure to close back of this pocket could keep the selling pressure on. There's been significant technical damage done over the last few weeks, so a rally would likely just be relief in a downward trending market. Our bias remains in bearish territory, despite the high probability of a decent relief rally.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1452-1457
Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean may go bearish after a short bull runSoybean chart currently approaching a significant area - reversal zone.
The bulls might run for a while. Will see if bearish structure and momentum come in later.
Soybeans Retreat to the 200-Day Moving Average Soybeans
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options.
Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were cancelled; this would certainly help explain the extensive selling we saw on Friday. Scattered rains over the weekend may help prices see some continuation of long liquidation.
Technicals: The big drop on Friday was ugly on the screen, especially when considering the reversal on Thursday off resistance near $16.00. The market finished roughly 90 cents off those Thursday highs and are now threatening to take out the recent lows1494 ¾-1500. A break and close below here would open the door for a run at the 200-day moving average, 1456.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean Mini Futures (XK1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 1580'4
Pivot: 1495'1
Support : 1420'2
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'1 in line with the swing low support. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1420'2 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1580'4 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
Soybean Mini Futures (XK1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 1580'4
Pivot: 1495'1
Support : 1420'2
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'1 in line with the swing low support. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1420'2 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1580'4 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
SOYBEAN FUTURESA very strong descent and now we are seeing a strong correction and then we may see a strong movement and we need patience and we are likely to get a strong and fast landing in case the support area breaks down.
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 1579'0
Pivot: 1495'2
Support : 1426'0
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'2 in line with the swing low support. Once we have downside confirmation that price has broken past pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1426'0 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1579'0 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
Soybeans, Corn, Naturals Gas are in Backwardation = shortA simple strategy to sell below a fractal (prior low on the chart) below 18 SMA
whenever there is a backardwardation (ticker2!<ticker1!) is currently highly profitable on
Soybeans, Corn, Naturals Gas, Cotton
Some weeks ago the stategy was profitable on 30 year bonds.
On other futures contracts the contango/backwardation might not work as relyable as on the above mentioned instruments, or you have to apply a filter for example only sell short soybeans if backwardation is below -40 (future instrument 40$ and more cheaper)
Soybeans Trade Lower After a Bullish USDA ReportSoybeans
Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report, the market couldn’t sustain the strength which led to long liquidation at the end of month/quarter. That failure has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning session. The market has retreaded back near our pivot pocket overnight, we’ve had that labeled in previous reports as 1533 ½. The Bulls need to defend this to prevent a further decline and retest of the June 24th lows, 1494 ¾. Below that is the 200-day moving average, 1456.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
