TOTAL macro. These thoughts have been expressed by many traders in one way
or another, and I tend to share them.
However, I want to make my own picture. It helps my thinking.
Elliott Waves are not my base method, but this model base situation
can be really can be seen on a weekly global chart.
It's important to apply it here so that you don't get lost in the
pictures of the smaller timeframes.
Let's go back in time.
So, 5 impulse waves happened
May 2017 through November 2021.
4.5 years of growth (1652 days).
Correction that started at the end took a year and two months
to form Leg A (Nov. 21 - Jan. 23).
We are now a full year inside leg B, which is what is called a bear rally.
And this is where we need to pay attention to the trend line.
As far as I've been able to be accurate, the wick will touch this
line at about ~1.835. And then what happens?
The market should take off breaking the trend without completing
the global pattern? It's been up for 1652 days.
And correction so far is only 784 days if you look at these macro waves.
There is some disproportionality in that.
I believe correction should be aiming for at least 2/3 of the time that
the rise has amounted to.
Or if the market decides there is no time, then the execution
of the pattern should be literally rapids.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything you don't like.
If you don't like it, pass by.
I always draw my charts for myself first and foremost, and only when I have no pity,
I publish them just to make my thoughts as useful as possible.
Conclusion. The market has about 0.11 TOTAL margin for an upward move
Let's take note of the high volume bar this week.
Isn't this the final sell-off.
You see, it's very hard to see this one coming.
I'd really like to say that a new cycle has begun.
But the correction pattern is the foundation for the next impulse wave cycle.
How can you want to eat the apple without planting the apple tree?
The altcoin explosion is a liquidity spillover from bitcoin.
But bitcoin should have a margin of growth.
And be a nudge trend.
Right now, the whole market is going to hit a trend line at the bottom.
How should this correlate with the fact that the underlying global
correction pattern comparable to the 2017-2021 growth period is not complete?
I'd prefer detailed explanations.
