Total Crypto Market Cap H&S Invalidation and ForecastWith a quiet week ahead of the CPI and PPI due out this week, it's a good time to look at the Macro chart structure.
Sometimes simpler is better, and I've had great success using simple formations like the H&S pattern, which beats Elliot Wave hands down most of the time.
In this case, we were looking at a potential inverse Head and Shoulders on the Total Market Cap last week, but that has now been invalidated leaving us with this new wedge formation and a new lower high trendline.
I think we have some unclear or negative economic data this week and likely see prices fall across the board and the TOTAL market cap here dip down into the buy range (Green boxes based on aggregate buy limit orders on the order books and using our Order Block Detector).
Then we rally into the FOMC and ahead of a possible 50 basis point rate cut surprise, and kicking off a rip-roaring Q4 October to December rally and off to new ATH's on BTC.
September is seasonally a down month, so I'd expect more chop until the above plays out.
And of course, new information = new decision, so we have to remail open to anything.
Some are calling for a re-test of the yearly open around $44k as Bitcion usually does re-test this level at least once during the year, and as of yet hasn't. But I think we'll hold $50k bitcoin on a closing basis and will be buying in the $50k - GETTEX:52K range, as Bitcoin will likely lead the rally, followed by Solana and ETH.
Our multi-time frame radar indicator is mixed, so I'm waiting for this to turn Green and our other signals to also turn Bullish, namely our ERI and TSI (Early Reveral Indicator and Trend Strength Indicator - not shown).
We'll have to play it week by week and see what opportunities present.
Good luck trading, this has been a very difficult area to predict and forecast, and as we can see, there's still heavy sell pressure above.
However, on another chart study I shared with M3 members yesterday, there's a massive macro Bull-Flag formation on the TOTAL market cap, with a measured move of $4.8T if and when we can solidly break to new ATH.
Our weekly signals show we're oversold and poised to break higher soon, just like we saw in September 2023 and before the big rally we've been enjoying all year!
Like and comment below for more like this, and I'll do my best to keep you posted!
TOTAL trade ideas
MARKETS week ahead: September 9 – 15Last week in the news
The previous week started with a negative market sentiment after leaked information regarding Nvidia's subpoena received from the U.S. Department of Justice, while the same sentiment continued till the end of the week, after releasing weaker than expected jobs data. Such sentiment increased US Dollar volatility, while the price of gold managed to sustain relatively higher levels, ending the week at $2.497. In expectation of a Feds higher rate cut, the US 10Y Treasury benchmark ended the week at 3,71%. The US equity markets had one of the worst weeks in this year, while the crypto market followed the negative sentiment for the second week in a row, with BTC closing at levels modestly below the $55K levels.
The week started with a negative sentiment, after the news was published that the US Justice Department pressed charges against market favorite Nvidia. As Bloomberg is reporting, the company Xockets Inc. pressed charges against both Nvidia and Microsoft Corp for illegally using seven patents from the company in relation to semiconductor technology used for the production of data processing units in chips used for the AI technology. The lawsuit is based on the violence of antitrust law in the US.
The week continued with high expectations with respect to US jobs data, which came out on Friday. Market volatility was significantly increased after the release of weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls for August. August's figure reached the level of 142K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see at least 160K. On a positive side is that the unemployment rate dropped a bit to the level of 4,2%, from 4,3% posted for the previous month. Other figures for the US economy, in terms of ISM indicators, are showing a positive development for the services sector in the US, while the manufacturing industry is still struggling to sustain a positive sentiment. After relatively weak jobs data for August, the market is rethinking a potential for Feds higher rate cut at their September FOMC meeting. There is currently an almost equal number of investors who are expecting 25 bps and 50 bps rate cuts. In an interview with CNBC, a Nobel prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz noted that the Fed raised interest rates too high too swiftly and that he would now vote for a higher rate cut, which was in line with expectations of economists from JPMorgan.
The previous week was not only bad for tech companies, but was also for the companies in the crypto industry. Both crypto exchangers and crypto miners experienced a selloff of shares. In line with a drop in the price of BTC and ETH, shares of the crypto exchanger Coinbase dropped down to the level of $147.
Crypto market cap
As the September FOMC meeting is nearing, the market nervousness is increasing. Last week`s weaker than expected US jobs figures, increased fears among market participants that the US economy is slowing down and that the Fed might cut interest rates higher from anticipated 25 bps in order to support the jobs market. In addition, negative news regarding Nvidia`s subpoena triggered general sell off of tech stocks, including also the crypto coins. Total crypto market capitalization decreased significantly during the last two weeks, while previous week only, total crypto market capitalization dropped by additional 7%, whipping out $134B from the market value. Again, the vast majority of crypto coins ended another week in red. Daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of $79B on a daily basis, from $103B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $260B, which represents a 16% surge from the beginning of this year.
Another losing week on the crypto market is behind. For another week BTC was dragging total crypto market capitalization to the downside. BTC lost 7.3% in value, decreasing its market cap by $87.6B. ETH followed the path, with a loss of 8.2% in value, or $25B. Among higher losers were BNB, with a droop in value of 5.6% or $4.3B, while market favorite Solana was traded down by 3.7%, decreasing its market value by $2.3B. XRP also lost almost $ 2B in value, dropping by 6.2% on a weekly basis. There have been only a few coins which managed to end the week in green, like Monero, with an increase in value of modest 1.9%, Uniswap was traded higher by 8.1%, while Algorand managed to gain 1.9% in value.
Another week with increased developments over the coins in circulation. Filecoin managed to add 0.4% of new coins to the market, while Solana, EOS and Polkadot added 0.2%. The winner of the week was Miota, with 0.6% more coins on the market within the single week.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reacted quite strongly to negative developments from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures ended the week lower for all maturities. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 10%, while the longer term ones were last traded down by 9%. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $54.590, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $60.860.
ETH short term futures closed the week by 14% lower from the end of the week before, with December 2024 closing price of $2.250. Longer term futures were traded some 11.5% lower on a weekly basis, where December 2025 reached the last price at $2.455.
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAP CUP & HANDLE FORMATION!The massive cup & handle formation currently forming the handle in the Total Crypto Market cap is stunning. When this plays out, it's going to create more millionaires than kung fu circus.
There will be a massive liquidity grab previous to the bottom, and this will be followed by an incredible breakout over the coming months.
Soon!
TOTAL1 🔍 TOTAL Market Cap (Crypto) Analysis: Weekly Timeframe 📉
The TOTAL Crypto Market Cap chart on a weekly timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s essential to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• BUY DATE - September 30, 2024 - Green Line: This time indicates a potential local low, offering favorable conditions for accumulating crypto assets or entering long positions.
• SELL DATE - October 25, 2024 - Red Line: This time marks a potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to reduce exposure or take profits.
• BUY DATE - December 7, 2026 - Green Line: Another potential local low, suggesting a favorable time to enter long positions.
When working with this weekly timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
Total Index Analysis by Mallicast Team:The Total index, which represents the overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, as a large portion of this liquidity is attributed to Bitcoin. Changes in this index can be very helpful in analyzing Bitcoin's price movements. The Mallicast analytical team, using available data and technical analysis, predicts that the Total index may soon undergo significant changes. As illustrated in the provided image, the anticipated trend could play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's direction. Therefore, investors and traders should closely monitor changes in this index to make the best trading decisions.
MARKETS week ahead: September 1 – 7Last week in the news
The PCE data were the ones to shape investors confidence during the previous week. Data on inflation, personal income and personal spending showed some potential for both rate cuts, and also continuation of high corporate earnings. The US equity markets benefited the most from such market expectations, with S&P 500 surging by 1%, ending the week at 5.648 points. The US Dollar gained in strength during the week, however, the price of gold was not in a mood to follow the negative correlation, ending the month at the level of $2.503. Treasury yields are correcting in line with investors expectation, closing the week on a higher grounds of 3.9%. The crypto market was left aside during the week, with BTC dropping below the $60K.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is one of the favorite Fed's inflation gauges, which is why the indicator is closely watched by market participants. Posted data are showing further drop of index in July to the level of 2.5%, y/y which was lower from forecasted 2.6%. The same was with core PCE data, where the indicator reached 2.6%, while the market was expecting to see a figure of 2.7% y/y. For the same period, personal spending was increased by 0.5% for the month, while personal income was higher by 0.3% on a monthly basis. Increased spending was something that caught the eye of both investors and analysts, who are now correcting their GDP growth expectations for the US for this year, but also expecting for corporate earnings to continue their uptrend also during the third quarter.
Last week, the news covered the topic of a potential further rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Although the majority of analysts are of the opinion that BoJ will not hike interest rates in October, there is some consensus that the year 2025 might certainly bring another increase of interest rates as inflation is picking up in Japan. This question represents a relevant topic considering that there is still a significant outstanding amount of carry trades, which ended up in the US equity and crypto markets.
Since recently there has been a huge discussion among market participants over the sale of Apple stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway, while the recent filings are showing that Warren Buffet is also selling shares of Bank of America. BoFA was the third largest stock in Berkshire's portfolio, but was gradually decreased. There is no further explanation from the company on such a move. Analysts are noting that Berkshire continues to stock cash, which currently is at a record high of $227 billion.
Since last week, Elon Musk's platform X has been officially suspended in Brazil. The Brazilian Court brought up such a decision after X failed to appoint the official court representative. The court case is investigating the involvement of the platform in spreading misinformation during the government of the former Brazilian President Bolsonaro.
As Cointelegraph is reporting, the selling pressure on BTC might continue through another settlement tranche of failed crypto exchanger Mt. Gox, which is due in September. As noted, Mt. Gox will distribute another 46.000 BTCs with current market value of $2.7B.
Crypto market cap
The optimism on the crypto markets was put on hold during the previous week. Markets were more focused on inflation data, through posted PCE, a Fed's favorite gauge. On the other hand were analysts and investors who perceived increased consumer spending in the US as a positive sign that Q3 corporate earnings might follow the path of previous quarters. Another information should not be overlooked, which is the expectation that another tranche of distribution of BTCs by failed crypto exchanger Mt. Gox might put additional pressure on BTC in September. This combination led to the week in red for the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 9% on a weekly basis, erasing $195B from the market value. Almost all coins finished the week in red. Interestingly, daily trading volumes decreased compared to the week before, from $160B to $103B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $ 394B, which represents a 24% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins were traded lower during the previous week. In nominal terms, BTC lost the most from all other coins, losing $105.5B in value or 8.3%. ETH took the second place with a drop in value of $34.3B or 10.2%. BNB was another coin with a significant drop in market cap of $8.2B or 9.5%. Market favorite Solana was among significant weekly losers of $12B, which represents 16% for this coin. Drop of more than $ 1B includes coins like Polygon, which was down by 27.3%, Polkadot dropped by 16.4%, ADA was traded lower by 13.6%, DOGE dropped by 11.2%. Among higher weekly losers in relative terms were ZCash with a drop of 25.3%, Maker was down by almost 20%, OMG Network dropped by 21.6%. The majority of other coins lost somewhere between 10% and 20%.
In line with a drop in value, there have been movements when coins in circulation are in question. Filecoin added 0.3% of new coins to the market. Polkadot and Polygon increased the number of circulating coins by 0.2% w/w, while this week EOS added 0.4% more coins. Tether increased the number of circulating coins by 0.3% and also increased its market cap by this percentage.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, the crypto futures were also traded lower. BTC futures ended the week lower by around 7.9% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at the level of $60.890, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $66.905. The futures dropped below $70K for one more time during the month.
Similar situation is also with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded lower by more than 9%, while the long term ones dropped by 8.9%. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at the level of $2.577, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.773, for one more time below the $3K level.
Crypto Total Market Cap to Surge to $5.987T by 2029!Using the Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci retracement, and the ABCD pattern, I’m projecting a significant rise in the total crypto market cap over the coming years, potentially reaching $5.987 trillion by 2029.
We are currently in the early stages of a new impulse wave (Wave 3) after completing a corrective phase (Wave 2). The first target (TP1) is set at $3.967T, supported by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. If the market reaches this target, a subsequent wave (Wave 5) could push the total market cap up to $9.983T, aligned with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level.
The ABCD pattern further confirms these projections, reinforcing the potential for a strong upward movement.
While the market remains dynamic, this analysis provides a promising outlook for the long-term growth of the crypto space. Stay tuned and secure your positions! 🛡️📈
CRYPTO MARKET CRASH COMING THE WEEK OF SEPT. 9TH - 15TH.I believe there is a massive crash coming for the crypto markets during the week of September 9th through the 15th. Don’t ask how I came up with this prediction; it’s too complex to get into. I don’t know if the drop will be a massive red candle in a single day or if it will be a multi-day process to achieve these lows, but I’m predicting that the minimum price drop will be 33%, to 50% in most cryptos (less than two weeks away).
This may be the 'Black Swan' that we have been waiting for, and for some, this will be the scariest moment in crypto. For others, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Key takeaways from this prediction:
- The overall crypto market will drop sometime between Sept. 9th through the 15th.
- Price drop will be between 33% and 50% in a 7 day timeframe.
- Drop may be quick, as in a single day, or it may be a process that takes the full week.
Keep some cash on the sidelines to purchase physical coins to add to your long-term crypto stack. This buying opportunity may last only hours, days or could extend to the full week; only time will tell.
Let the countdown begin. And yes, I know this is a bold prediction, but I wouldn’t be sharing it if I didn’t believe it was actually going to happen, and yes, I may be wrong.
Good luck!
Crypto TOTAL Market cap on the verge of a correctionThe crypto market just had a decent recovery from its latest crash on Black Monday. Now, it seems we can expect another low based on the market structure and technical analysis.
Historically, September has often been a red month for markets. What I expect is a quick flash in the market before it goes up to make new highs, starting the main bull market we've all been waiting for.
This correction to $1.5T will provide the liquidity and fuel for strong bullish momentum toward the main target of $6-7T in the TOTAL Crypto Market Cap IMO. DYOR
$TOTAL Trump Pump Gets Wiped Out By New Indictment The Trump Pump gets wiped out by the Democrats' relentless legal pursuit to take him out of the race with today's new indictment against him.
If Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap does not hold the .236 fib, we will revisit the 1.8T range. That would be another 10% down from here.
Next critical support would be 1.479T, which would be a 20% sell-off.
I very well see this being a possibility to have one last real shake-out before rate cuts September 18th.
Crypto Market About To Explode Conventional Technical Analysis Wisdom Suggests That Markets Rarely Move In Straight Lines, Instead Exhibiting Complex Patterns Like Higher Highs And Higher Lows (Uptrend), Lower Highs And Lower Lows (Downtrend), Consolidations (Sideways Movement), And Breakouts (Sudden Price Movements). Your Observation About The Altcoin Market Cap Chart Is Insightful, Noting The Consolidation From April To October Last Year Led To A Breakout And Significant Gains. Similarly, The Current Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern Is Comparable To A Bullish Pennant, Indicating A Potential Breakout Soon. If Successful, This Breakout Could Propel The Entire Altcoin Market Towards New All-Time Highs
MARKETS week ahead: August 26 – 31Last week in the news
“The time has come for policy to adjust” were the words of Fed Chair Powell which marked the previous week impacting strongly market sentiment. Almost all markets reacted positively to a potential Feds pivoting point, with S&P 500 gaining 1,45% for the week and nearing its all time highest level from July this year. The US Dollar continued to lose strength, supporting the price of gold, which gained 1% during the week, ending it with a new ATH at the level of $2.530. In a quest for riskier assets, the crypto market also gained, with BTC reaching levels modestly below the $ 65K resistance line. The 10Y US Treasuries dropped to the level of 3,79% as of the end of the week.
The main event during the previous week was a Wyoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell held a speech. Each year this event is closely watched by markets in order to get a glimpse of potential future policy moves. This year's symposium was especially important, as Fed Chair Powell for the first time used the wording “the time has come for policy to adjust”, as inflation of 2,5% is on a track of Feds targeted 2%. This was a confirmation of market expectations that the potential first rate cut might occur at September's FOMC meeting. It should be noted that Fed Chair Powell did not comment on the exact timing of the policy adjustment, nor for how many basis points. The market is currently occupied with a question whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points.
Guests at the Jackson Hole Symposium were also representatives of the European Central Bank. its Chief economist, Philip Lane noted that the ECB is doing a good job in bringing inflation down to targeted 2%, however, the return to this target is still not assured. On the other side are analysts who are betting that the ECB would have to cut in September and again in December, considering that the environment of high interest rates is already significantly hurting growth of the EuroZone.
The CrowdStrike outage occurred this year, affecting millions of computers using Microsoft operating systems, and left a major question over the security and stability of operating programs like MS. In order to discuss challenges like this, Microsoft is organizing a cybersecurity event with CrowdStriek and other security companies in order to discuss potential solutions so that such events never again happen in the future. The conference will be held in September at MS campus in Redmond.
In a run for presidency, Donald Trump is certainly counting on the crypto community. As news are reporting, he first proclaimed himself as pro-crypto candidate, and now he is promoting a family-run DeFi project “The DeFiant ones” on his social platform. Although the platform is still pending official launch, there are already 40.000 followers subscribed.
Crypto market cap
The Fed Chair Powell mimicking potential rate cut in the coming period, at Jackson Hole Symposium was also positive for the crypto market. As investors are expecting that the environment of decreasing interest rates would impact funds currently placed at money market funds at rates around 5% would soon start to seek asset classes where they can make higher profits. One of such asset classes is certainly the crypto coins, especially BTC and ETH which entered into the mainstream through exchange traded funds. Although the crypto market spends the first half of the week at side trading, still at the end of the week the crypto market is finishing mostly within green territory. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 9%, mostly as of the end of the week, adding $177B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased to the level of $160B on a daily basis, compared to $ 95B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $589B, which represents a 36% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins finished the week in green. The market was led by BTC, which increased its market cap by $97B or 8.3% on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, which managed to add $22.4B to its total market cap, increasing it by 7.1%. XRP should be mentioned as the coin added almost $ 3B to its value within a single week, increasing it by 9.3%. This week Tether managed to add a figure above $ 1B to its cap, which was a weekly increase of 0.9%. Cardano performed very well during the week, with an increase of $2.3B in the value or 19.3%. Binance Coin was also one of the significant weekly winners, with a surge in value of $7.3B or 9.3%. Market bellowed Solana was also in the spotlight, as the coin added almost $ 10B to its market cap, which was an increase of almost 15% w/w. Polygon had an incredible week, with a surge of almost 42% in value. There are a significant number of other altcoins which managed to gain more than 20% on a weekly basis. Interestingly, there were also only a few weekly losers, like Bitcoin Gold, which was down by 9% w/w, or ZCash, dropping by 1.4%.
There has also been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. The highest weekly gainer is certainly Tether, with a surge of 0.9% of circulating coins on a weekly basis. IOTA is also posting some increased activity lately, with a weekly increase of 0.6% of circulating coins. This week Polygon and Filecoin added 0.3% more coins to the market, while Polkadot added 0.2% more coins.
Crypto futures market
This week the crypto futures market managed to align with the spot market and follow the investors sentiment. Both BTC and ETH futures posted an increase in futures value from the previous week. BTC both short and long term futures were traded by around 7% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year posted an increase of almost 10% on a weekly basis, ending the week at the level of $65.735. Futures maturing a year later were last traded at price $72.692.
Similar situation was with ETH futures. The short term ones were traded higher by more than 5% on a weekly basis, while the longer term ones were traded higher by some 4.6%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $2.855, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.044.
The Biggest Crash Since The Bear-Market (Bitcoin & The Altcoins)We are about to reach the climax of the 2024 Cryptocurrency market correction...
How are you doing today?
By the time you read this it will be Sunday... And trouble is approaching the market.
Bitcoin's 2024 Capitulation Event is here and it won't affect only Bitcoin, the entire market will suffer.
Money is being withdrawn from the Altcoins, all of them.
Many altcoins were looking good and remaining strong even while Bitcoin moved up, or down, but now everything is starting to slow down. This is the most revealing signal of all.
The crash is obvious so we do not need to focus on that part, let's focus on how the Altcoins will react instead.
➖ The Cryptocurrency Apocalypse ➖
Day 1. Nobody saw it coming... At first, just blank, not much action, kind of boring or a feeling of anticipation... The calm before the storm.
Day 2. It is happening... 95% of the market participants still claiming "the start of the bull-market" as they were doing in March, and another portion claiming, "New All-Time High" and "Bitcoin $100K." Billions will be liquidated in a flash.
Day 3. The crash is on... Prices are dropping, people start to awaken to what is happening; fear, panic; sell the house, sell everything; buy-dip, false breakdown, 1 BTC = 1 BTC....
Day 4. Bitcoin hits a new low... "How far down will it go?" "Will it hit $10K?" "OMG!!!"
Day 5. The slow recovery starts... Bitcoin will experience long-term growth. At this point, the majority of the people fold, lose hope, faith and simply sell —at the bottom.
Day 6. Strong recovery.
Each day can be worth 3 days... More or less. But the whole dynamic should play within 1-3 weeks. Interesting to watch is the biggest understatement in the history of life. It will be the most fascinating event ever, to see the upcoming crash and the worldwide reaction.
What will be the catalyst?
What type of news headlines will we get?
(Share some of your guesses in the comment section.)
➖ Altcoins Market Reaction ➖
Enough of that let's get serious.
I already mentioned this in several articles but understandably not everybody reads everything so let's recap.
1) Many altcoins already hit bottom. While they will turn red, it won't be a big event for these but only a retrace before maximum growth. This portion of the market will recover fast.
2) A second group, mid-size, are good but have not bottomed and so will move to produce a lower low but will recover fast as well.
3) The last group are the giants... These have to go through a painful correction because they are still trading high up.
Everything crashes at first; those big take longer to recover, those smaller recover faster. That's it keeping it simple.
If you agree, leave a comment.
If you disagree, leave two comments.
Namaste.
TOTAL Analysis by the Mallicast Team AnalystsWhile the Total Index was unable to surpass its previous yearly highs, the Mallicast team predicts a corrective decline down to 2.151T. After this correction, they expect the index to reach its short-term peak at 2.306T and accumulate the necessary liquidity.
TOTAL Analysis by the Mallicast Team AnalystsWhile the Total Index was unable to surpass its previous yearly highs, the Mallicast team predicts a corrective decline down to 2.151T. After this correction, they expect the index to reach its short-term peak at 2.306T and accumulate the necessary liquidity.
Crypto total market cap direction is still higher.Want to make that post, a bit contrarian, my timeline is filled by bearish post about world war, recession and pandemic.
I'm probably too optimist or dumb for that.
All crisis were priced in one day.
Market recovering, gold ATH indicates liquidity inflow and interest rates going down.
Up is the way, maybe not that immediate or high.