MARKETS week ahead: July 8 – 14Last week in the news
The non-farm payrolls and unemployment data shaped investors sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. Friday was the day of significant volatility, which brought US Treasury yields down to the level of 4.28%. Weakening of the US Dollar pushed the price of gold to higher grounds, ending the week at level of $2.391. The US equity markets were also supported by the market sentiment on a Fed`s potential rate cut in September, where S&P 500 reached a new all time highest level. The crypto market was the only one which was traded on a negative side. The BTC was testing levels around the $ 54K, however, ending the week around $58K.
The most important macro figures for the week were posted on Friday. The non-farm payrolls for June surged to 206K, significantly above market estimated 190K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was increased to 4.1% in June from 4.0% posted in May. These figures increased market optimism that the Fed still might cut rates in September, as they suggest that job openings have improved, but the employment trend is still modestly weakening. Increased unemployment rate also indicates that the inflator pressures coming from the job market should continue cooling down, which implies a potential for a rate cut during the course of this year. September still holds as the current estimate of the majority of market participants.
During the week Tesla reported its Q2 vehicle deliveries figures which were significantly higher from the market estimate. This made an impact on the price of Tesla`s shares which gained 27% during the week. However, with this significant increase, Tesla managed to cover losses for this year. The share price reached $251.55, while they ended the year 2023 at level of $248.48.
The crypto market was shaken during the week, after the news was released that the bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox will pay out around $9 billion to its affected users. The payouts already started in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash to some creditors through a number of crypto exchangers. The rest of funds will be distributed when “conditions are met” in terms of validity of registered accounts. As analysts are noting, this significantly increased number of coins on the market will put selling pressure on BTC.
As Reuters is reporting, the government of Peru announced that it will receive around $300 million credit over a period of 15 years in order to support the digital transformation of the country. Peru`s creditor is German KfW Development Bank. Further details on digital transformation have not been disclosed. At the same time, Peru is the third country in the world by the production of copper, while its economy grew between 4.5% and 5.0% on a yearly basis in May.
Crypto market cap
The final breakthrough of pressures on the crypto market occurred during the previous week. The crypto market has been slowing down for the last three weeks, while there are several reasons behind it which collide together within the short time frame.
The latest news from the previous week is that bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox announced that it will return to creditors some $9 billion through Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash. Market participants knew that this amount would put a huge selling pressure on BTC and the crypto market, so the final selloff was triggered. The selling pressure from crypto miners is another aspect to consider.
Traditionally, this sale reaches its maximum during the summer time, where it has been estimated that this year only, crypto miners sold around 40.000 BTC worth around $2.5 billion. A continuous drop in BTC price pushed the funds from crypto based ETF`s where they for the first time became net sellers instead of net buyers. In addition to that, it should be considered the announcement from the German government that it will sell its BTC holding worth around $2.8 billion.
And, on top of it, it should be taken into account that a strong drop in the value of BTC and other altcoins triggered margin calls for leveraged positions. The combination of all these effects, pushed the total crypto market cap down by 6% as of the end of this week, wiping out some $124B in value. It should be noted that during the week, the crypto market cap dropped by $170B in one moment.
Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $124B on a daily basis, from $94B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $443B, which represents a 27% surge from the beginning of this year.
The coin which dragged the crypto market to the downside during the previous week was BTC. It lost around 5% in the value, erasing $57.8B from its market cap. ETH naturally took the second place, with a drop in value of 9.7%, decreasing its cap by $39.5B. Binance Coin was also among significant weekly losers, by decreasing its cap by more than 8%, wiping $6.8B from its cap. XRP was down by 6.2%, where it lost $1.6B from its market cap. Significant losers in relative terms were, among others, Litecoin with a drop of 13.7% w/w, NEO was down by 12.7%, OMG Network lost almost 11% , same as Filecoin.
Interestingly, there have been only a few coins which managed to end the week at a higher level on a weekly basis. Polkadot managed to increase its cap by 2.5% on a weekly basis, while Tron was higher by 3.4% for the week. It should also be mentioned Solana, which ended the week relatively flat, same as Algorand.
Tether was a coin which lost 0.5% of its circulating coins, decreasing by this percentage its total market capitalization. On the other side were Algorand and Filecoin, which both increased the number of their coins on the market by 0.3%. Maker added 0.2% of new coins to the market.
Crypto futures market
Crypto futures also reacted to developments from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower from the week before. BTC short term futures ended the week by some 8% on average. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $56.800 or 8.85% lower from the week before. December 2025 closed the week at $65.215 or 6% lower on a weekly basis.
Similar situation was with ETH futures, but with higher weekly drop in future levels. Short term ones were traded around 10% lower, while those with longer maturities were down by more than 11%. ETH futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.117, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.339.
TOTAL trade ideas
TOTAL or HALF? —Divide Your Total Capital In Half—Do this... As a mental drill in preparation for what's to come.
Go to your portfolio and note its total value.
Take whatever amount you see on the screen and divide it by half...
What do you see? What do you feel?
Nothing?
Something like this we are about to experience.
Once it actually happens, we tend to see imagines/visions of all the things that we could have done with all the value that will evaporate once the final market bottom shows up.
➖ The TOTAL index has been dropping since March 2024.
➖ TOTAL has been on a strong bearish wave after a strong lower high in May.
➖ TOTAL is about to crash again.
It doesn't matter what you trade or what you hold, when Bitcoin crashes, the entire market drops.
👉 The TOTAL Cryptocurrency market capitalization is about to go down.
Good news!
Not all is doom and gloom.
➖ After we go down, we are set for more than a year of sustained growth.
➖ After the bearish is over, which is almost coming to an end; we will have massive, massive growth.
The market moves in cycles.
Up and down, up and down, up and down...
We are going down now, later, we will be going straight up!
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
TOTAL update - July 6 2024#TOTAL chart is probably in retest phase of the 2.04T - 2.17T resistance zone and following the retest, the continuation of the drop is expected unless TOTAL manages to hit 2.291T level. in that case, the possibility of hitting lower levels will probably be negated!
so in short, the pump in the market is likely temporary!
Total Crypto Chart Daily Breakers and Key LevelsMarked key levels with Breaker block volume readouts from Nami SMB Pro to show you areas with high volume support and resistance potential.
Also marked a few key areas of confluence with yearly vwap snap points and macro 618 golden pocket.
This is the chart that measures the whole crypto market. If it rises then your favorite cryptos have a chance. If it dips they all go with it. Think of it as the large folder when unpacked you see all the other projects within it.
Not Ever Financial Advice
For entertainment only
The Bull Market Hasn't Started YetWhen the market is down on days like today, I often get asked what I think when the bull run is about to continue.
My answer is simple: It hasn't even started yet.
Here's why 👇
➡️ What we've seen so far this year are two things: Bitcoin performing exceptionally well, driven by the ETF approval and a meme coin hype.
➡️ The rest of the market has continued to move sideways. Yes, we had some nice pumps, but:
- Most tokens are almost back to where they started in January
- Many tokens are still at their cycle low in their BTC pair.
➡️ Most tokens are in a downtrend based on their long-term moving average (see screenshot below). This, actually, is the last thing you expect in a bull run.
➡️ The total crypto market cap is still below the value of the ATH in November '21
Here's how it feels when the bull run starts 👇
🚀 Altcoins will gain incredible strength in their Bitcoin pairs (actually the most crucial indicator).
🚀 The majority of the tokens will move above the EMA200 quickly.
🚀 The overall market cap will start climbing at a massive pace (during the last bull run, the market cap grew ~800% compared to the previous ATH).
Therefore, monitoring BTC pairs is essential since this is an early indicator of positioning yourself.
If you wait for the Alt Season, keep an eye out for this patternwww.tradingview.com
I recently explored the dynamics between total coin market cap, alt dominance, and major internal and external events, and identified certain patterns
There are three alt dominance bull waves in a medium to long-term cycle
- In other words, there are three alt seasons in a single medium to long term cycle.
- If you enter before the second upward wave, you can be successful.
- However, do not enter the third and final wave as it is a fake.
The true alt season comes after the US presidential election.
- There are also alt seasons before and after halving, but they are just warm-ups.
- The mega alt season coincidentally arrives right after the US election.
- I don't know if it's a coincidence or a necessity, but it seems to be influenced by political issues.
The market dominance of the alt sector has continued to grow.
- The peak level of Bitcoin dominance has been decreasing over time.
- This is a sign that funds are becoming more and more decentralized into the alt sector.
- Of course, the number of altcoins has also increased, that means the decision of which alt to invest is so important.
In conclusion, if historical patterns repeat themselves, my conclusion is that the second alt season in the current long-term cycle is coming in the near future, and only those who strategically enter the market at a time when everyone else is bored will be able to "reap the fruits of the mega alt season."
In the second half of '24, the bullrun is coming!www.tradingview.com
The chart above brings together the total market cap over the past two years and global liquidity. For reference, global liquidity was based on M2
*M2 means M1 + short term deposit(contract deposit, small MMA, etc.), all cashable assets that can be immediately cashed in, and is a representative macroeconomic indicator associated with inflation
Eventually, when money is printed on the market, it will flow into coins, which are risky assets, and then the total coin market cap will naturally increase. In fact, when liquidity surged in the second quarter of the year, the coin market cap, which had been disturbed by the FTX crisis, also surged afterwards. As liquidity increased in the second quarter of the year, the coin market was able to increase once again
Although there is a boring sideways trend right now, the coin market cap is expected to increase again as in the '22.4Q and the '23.Q' when interest rate cuts are expected
Crypto total forming bullish trend - 2.2T heavy support The Crypto total market cap daily time frame, we can see the support level 2.2 trillion was tested multiple times in end of Q1 and Q2 2024, time periods: 1 March, middle east geopolitical conflict 15 April, first 2 weeks of May 2024. The week time frame of 24 June was chopping around the 2.2 trillion support. Slim wicks to the downside with quick recoveries to 2.2 trillion. BItcoin and altcoins are oversold on 24 June, more so altcoins have been shaken to extreme oversold conditions. Will the altcoin market bleed more? I doubt it with the Eth and SOL ETF filings.
The Crypto total market cap downward trend is broken and the uptrend forming start of Q3 2024, the daily candles prints bold green. I can assume the trend for Q3 and Q4 2024 to be bullish formations from here.
Good luck and have fortune, we still in bull market crypto halving cycle until 2025!
Cryptocap Crypto Total Market Cap - Idea IHey guys
2023 printed a bullish setup - retest of old high.
-> it also closed above the middle line of the bearish engulfing candle -> second bullish indicator.
-> grey zone and old highs of 2.1T - 3T will be monitored.
-> still somewhat bearish below 3.1
Quarterly: Neutral - Inside bar and retesting middle line of Q1
-> still in bullish territory because it closed above major support…
-> inside Bar will be monitored (range)
Monthly chart: Bearish close -> 3 Months weakness
-> Stochastic turned down - 2.4T and 2T will be the showdown area - grey Box which will act as support or resistance.
-> still in an uptrend indicated by the rising Trendline.
3D: Testing a bullish Trendline - Bullish Setup on this Frame
-> still in a declining trendline / Consolidation
Thanks for reading
I don't like BTC, but it's probably going to $200k+Folks that know me know that I don't trust crypto. I don't understand or fully believe its "use" case bull hypothesis.
But I do believe we are in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation.
In my mind BTC is simply another risk asset and as such an "inflation hedge" or "fiat decline hedge".
In that regard I may have underestimated the ability of BTC to trade higher in the years ahead. Potentially A LOT higher. I'm talking $200k+.
I don't like it but you trade what you see without bias whenever possible. Don't @ me.
MARKETS week ahead: July 1 – July 7Last week in the news
Inflation data were in focus of markets during the previous week. The US PCE data published on Friday, impacted some repositioning among asset classes. The US equities reacted to the inflation data by ending Friday`s trading session in red. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.460. The US Dollar modestly weakened during the week, allowing gold to recover some of the weekly losses, ending the week at level of $2.340. The strongest reaction to posted data had 10Y Treasury yields, which were increased to the level of 4.4%. The crypto market continues to be under pressure, where BTC was testing the lower grounds during the week, still, ending it above $60K support level.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index for May was published on Friday. The index was standing at the level of 2.6% y/y, and at the same level as core PCE. Figures for May represent its lowest level within the last three years. Despite the evident decrease in inflation pressures, the markets are still not sure regarding the Fed`s pivoting point in time. The majority of market participants are still perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year.
As CNBC is reporting, a new wave of M&A activities started within the crypto mining industry, noting as a catalyst artificial intelligence. Namely, as crypto miners have the necessary equipment for “compute-intensive AI operations' ', initially installed for the mining of crypto coins, they became a target of larger companies within the field of AI. In this sense, a Nvidia backend start-up, CoreWeave announced a deal with Core Scientific company. It is noted that the deal is expected to generate additional $1.2 billion in revenues within the next 12 years.
In line with the development of AI technology and the demand for data centers, the European Union has finalized their study on a potential for launching data centers in Earth's orbit. As the demand for electricity is significantly increasing due to the developments in the digital sectors, the ASCEND is trying to solve the issue through using solar energy within the Earth's orbit.
After BTC and ETH, Solana is the next one to be eligible for an exchange traded fund. As per news reports, VanEck asset management company in the US filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. VanEck`s researchers believe that the Solana is acting like a commodity and not a security, and that it acts like a competitor to Ethereum blockchain. Solana rose 8% on this news.
China is slowly gearing up to be the leader of the global market within the field of electric vehicles. As per study conducted by the consulting firm AlixPartners, the Chinese automakers will achieve a 33% global market share of EV by 2030. However, the firm is noting far slower expansion in Japan and North America, considering the 100% tariff on imported Chinese EV`s that these countries are imposing on imports from China.
Crypto market cap
For the second week in a row the crypto market is slowing down. Investors' interest continues to be focused on inflation data, in which sense, recent posted PCE and consumer confidence data had also some impact on the crypto market. Anticipation of the next Fed move when it comes to interest rates continues to be a major concern of market participants, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 4%, wiping out some $86B from the market value. Daily trading volumes continue to move around $94B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $567B, which represents a 35% surge from the beginning of this year.
Previous week`s drop in total crypto market capitalization was led by its major coins, BTC and ETH, while other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. BTC lost 5.2% of its value on a weekly basis, losing more than $ 66B in market cap. ETH took the second place with outflow of $20.8B from its market cap, which is a decrease of 4.9% within a single week. Binance Coin was also traded to a downside, losing $2.5B in market cap, or 2.9%. One of the highest losers within the week in relative terms was Uniswap, with a drop in value of 10.1%. However, there were coins which managed to increase their value on a weekly basis. Solana should be specially mentioned, with a weekly gain of 5.4%, adding $3.3B to its market cap. This increase came after news hit the market that asset manager VanEck filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. Tron and Polkadot had a good week, with an increase in market cap of more than 5%.
When it comes to coins in circulation, ETH was the greatest weekly surprise. Namely, around 1.7% of its coins were pulled off from the market. There is currently no public information what`s the cause of such a move. This week IOTA had one of the highest increases of coins on the market, with a surge of 0.6% on a weekly basis. Filecoin increased its circulating coins by 0.3%.
Crypto futures market
Two weeks ago the spot crypto market turned to a short correction, still, there has not been some significant response from the crypto futures market. However, during the previous week, there has been some significant correction, when it comes to the crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower from the week before.
BTC short term futures ended the week around 5% lower from the week before. December 2024 was traded by 7.7% lower from the end of the previous week, ending it at $62.315. Futures maturing in December 2025 were traded lower by 6.7%, with a closing price of $69.385.
Similar situation was also with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded around 7% lower from the week before, while December 2024 ended the week by a round 4% drop in value, with the last traded price at $3.505. December 2025 had a slower drop of 3.45% on a weekly basis, closing the week at $3.774.
$TOTAL is flerting with important Fibonacci Circle resistenceAfter a fake breakout from important Fibonacci Circle resistence and a fake breakout from the downward blue continuous line, CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL is trying to find now support over the daily 200 EMA (green line) that coincides exactaly over an important VWAP reset line
If prices continue to fall, a very important support will be over the market "Support Box"
Once the price breakout from the red Fib Circle, market will continue its move upward
Chart Idea - TOTALWaiting for this inverse head n shoulder to playout. In order for BTC to move further up and liquidate more shorts, TOTAL needs to break the neck line of this inverse head n shoulder pattern. We will see BTC going down again if it gets rejected from here. Will keep on updating here.
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP - 1064 Day CycleThe crypto total marketcap has previously experienced two uptrends that lasted 1064 days.
We are in the third cycle and there are 518 days left until the completion of the 1064-day trend.
The cycle will be completed in November 2025.
We'll see if history repeats itself.
Total Crypto MarketCap at "Oversold Levels" for a while!www.tradingview.com
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates the relative strength of the market's upward and downward movements, especially when it is below 30, indicating 'oversold levels'.
The RSI for total crypto market cap recently entered oversold territory for the first time in 10 months, and historical patterns suggest that this may be a "buy-the-dip opportunity.
Elliot Wave 3-4 : FINAL Correction before NEW ATHI've been watching this bearish M-Pattern for some time, and I still believe this is a multi-month playout towards a new ATH:
This lines up with my initial correction target using Elliot Wave Theory:
We see a very clear Double Top play out in the Total Chart, also indicating that it's time for a correction:
HOWEVER - I expect the bulls to be ready and sweep in lower prices when the right support zone is reach (whale zone), which seems likely to be in the 40k zone. It won't be a straight line down - again, a multi-month playout is likely.
_______________________________
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT
WHAT IF WE ARE IN A BIG CRYPTO DOWNTREND? If you want to be top 10% do the opposite of 90% .
I'm constantly asking myself what majority of investors think and do at the moment.
Are they buying? Or maybe selling?
Last couple of months I would say that majority of investors were placing buy positions.
Why?
-Some of them had mindset of "halving is just around the corner, I will invest x amount of money and in one year I will make x amont of money"
-Institutions are in the game, mainstream media hyped this up. "They probably know what are they doing, I don't want to miss the train again"
-Geopolitical tensions
-Elections
-Influencers and social media caused a lot of hype about the bull run.
Would you dare to go against all of this?
Small amount of people probably did.
Personally I'm waiting for a pullback for sure, because we are in 1,5 year uptrend without any pullbacks. We saw all time high before halving which is something new for us.
As I posted on my X account couple of weeks ago, I'm expecting extreme fear below 20 or even lower before any continuation to the upside.
Everytime 2 months before halving correction happened and fear and greed index fell below 20. This time this scenario did not occured. We had fear and greed index on 90 1 month before halving when price was at 68.430$ .
Who bought at 68.430$ (place of extreme greed = 90) is -10% in drawdown. In my opinion this does not hurt that much, we need deeper pullback in my opinion.
What could happen to push price lower?
I don't know, but I do know that in near future crash can occur. Everything is at the ATH right before elctions, while war going on between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, China and Taiwan , Houthis attacking ships at the entry to the most important transportation sea way (suez canal) , ...
Anything can happen but most important questions is "what and when?"
This is only my point of view and some of my thoughts at the current levels.
This post is not a financial advice!
Do your own research before investing/trading.
MARKETS week ahead: June 24 – 30Last week in the news
Markets used the week after the FOMC meeting for some repositioning and profit-takings in expectation of new data which will provide a clue when the Fed will start its pivoting cycle. The S&P 500 finished the week lower, after reaching a new all time highest level, where Nvidia for one more time was in the center of market interest. The US Dollar gained in strengths, pushing the price of gold toward the level of $2.321. The US 10Y Treasury yields remained relatively calm modestly above the 4.20% level, while the crypto market was eyeing lower grounds, and BTC testing the $ 65K support line during the whole week.
China was in the center of the news during the previous week, as the both US and EU are imposing further restrictions for products made in China. The negotiations were held between EU and China officials related to tariffs that the EU will impose on China's electric vehicles, in an attempt to protect its own auto industry. On the other hand, the US issued a set of rules which would put a halt to specific investments in the products related to artificial intelligence and other technological developments in China, under the reasoning that they might impose a threat to the US national security.
Apple has announced that their three new features named Apple Intelligence, which is based on AI, iPhone Mirroring and enhancements to SharePlay screen shall not be launched in the European Union upon its official release. The company notes that “the interoperability requirements of the DMA could force us to compromise the integrity of our products in ways that risk user privacy and data security”. Although such a move from a company might disappoint consumers in the EU, and in this sense, potentially decrease the sale of Apple devices in EU countries, still, the market for Apple shares remained flat on the news.
The US banking regulators publicly disclosed the weaknesses in the resolution plans in four from eight US largest banks, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Deficiencies in plans were related to derivative portfolios and the way the banks are planning to handle any potentially negative situation. The regulators noted that plans of these companies have “material limitations”.
Standard Chartered bank announced that it will establish a trading desk where their clients will be able to trade bitcoin and ether coins. The desk will be based in London as a part of the bank`s FX trading unit. Standard Chartered will be the first bank to allow its clients to trade BTC and ETH directly from their trading platform.
Crypto market cap
Crypto market continued to slow down also during the previous week. Fed`s pivoting point is still in the center of market interests, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring, considering latest available data on the state of the US economy and potential next Fed`s moves. Currently decreased interest for BTC is evident not only on the spot market, but also in the futures and among ETF`s. As per news reports, BTC ETF`s faced some $900 millions in outflows during the previous week. As the market is searching for new equilibrium levels, the crypto market lost additional 3% in value on a weekly level, losing around $ 69B from its market cap. Daily trading volumes were again decreased to the level of $93B on a daily basis, from $120B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $653B, which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year.
The majority of coins were on a losing track during the previous week, except only a few ones which ended the week in a positive territory. In a nominal sense, BTC lost the most of all coins, around $38B on a weekly basis, or 2.9%. ETH managed to end the week relatively flat compared to the week before. Among higher weekly losers were Binance Coin, with a drop in value of $2.8B or 3.1%, there was also Solana, which dropped its market cap by $4.9B or 7.3% w/w. In a relative terms, the highest weekly losers were coins like OMG Network, with a drop in value of 16.3%, Zcash was down by 11.4% same as NEO, Filecoin and Uniswap both lost around 15% on a weekly basis, while Algorand was down by 12.7%. The majority of other altcoins dropped up to 10% w/w. Among few gainers were EOS, who managed to increase its cap by 14.8% w/w, while Maker ended the week higher by 7%.
There has been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense ETH`s circulating coins increased by 1.8% on a weekly level, Tether increased its number of coins by 0.3%, same as the total value of its market cap. This week LINK had an increase of its circulating coins by 3.6%, while Filecoin, traditionally increased the number of its coins in circulation by 0.6% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Decreased activity on the crypto futures market continues. In line with the spot market BTC futures were traded lower compared to the week before, while ETH futures ended the week higher. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 2%. Futures maturing in December 2024, closed the week at price $67.560 or 2.5% lower from the week before, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $74.355 relatively flat on a weekly level.
ETH short term futures closed the week around 3% higher. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at $3.651 or 3.3% higher w/w, while December 2025 was closed 3.7% higher at level of $3.909.
Total market capitalization decline1) Total market capitalization decline has confirmed. This is one more argument that the price action we see since December 2022 - is a bear structure;
I interpret the structure as an extended 4 wave of minor degree.
2) Bitcoin has gone under the 2009 trend line. This was never done before.
3) Due to massive 4-year SMAs support near 37-32k, a pattern might be more complex than straight ABC structure.
The first relatively safe entry point on BTC chart is 38k. My base scenario is 18500.
3) 5 ways down, i described in previous posting - is never the end of a structure, according to Elliot waves principle.
Good luck in your trading and have a massive profit!