TOTAL trade ideas
TOTAL LONG TERM ANALYSISIn my analysis, the FED’s interest rate decision and how liquidity will shape as a result will determine the future of the market. I believe the likelihood of a FED rate cut will increase in the next meeting. However, I expect a period of stability in the market before the meeting. In other words, I think this will lead the market into an accumulation phase within its zigzag structure, preparing for a breakout.
I expect that the FED rate cut expectations will strengthen by the time of the next meeting, and initially, the market will react with the "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. That is, such news is usually priced in first, followed by a sell-off. However, once the news is confirmed, the market will experience a short-term pullback. This could be the final "shakeout" phase.
When the market starts an upward rally, it will not want to carry the "small investors" and "some institutional players" on its back. In the market, leveraged positions will be liquidated, and then the rally will begin with real demand. Those who use high leverage should pay attention to what I am saying.
I cannot overlook the manipulation factor. In such phases, as liquidity increases, a manipulation period occurs. Afterward, weak investors are shaken out, and real buyers start to dominate the market.
Considering the price target in the chart (values between 2.17T and 3T), I expect a strong upward movement after manipulation. However, I believe investors should be cautious, taking volatility into account.
What happens when TOTAL increases to $2.970T and go down 1.950T?BTC will fill your account with hope, turning it a green hue, reaching a peak of $2.970 trillion. It will linger there for a while, basking in the glory, only to be met with a dark twist as the market aligns with some negative news, followed by a surge of ultra-optimistic, hot news that keeps you on that high. Then, the market quietly pulls the capital back, returning to the $2 trillion mark.
What do you think of this scenario? How will you prepare for the upcoming phase?
With $2.75 billion increasing by $200 billion, BTC and Altcoins will take turns flourishing in an eerie dance of highs and lows.
Good luck... but beware!
MARKETS week ahead: March 17 – 23Last week in the news
Tariffs-on, tariffs-off continues to shape market sentiment. The US equity markets tried to cover some weekly losses, where S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.638, after the index reached its lowest weekly level at 5.508. Considering uncertainty, the price of gold reached another all time highest level at $3K. The US Dollar continues to lose in strength, while US Treasuries are digesting latest inflation data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment with higher inflation expectations. The 10Y US benchmark is ending the week at the level 4,32% and is preparing for the forthcoming FOMC meeting on March 19th. The crypto market had a mixed week, with a lower start and an attempt to close the week higher. BTC passed the $80K resistance, ending the week above the $84K.
The US inflation data for February was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. Inflation of 0,2% for the month was in line with market expectations, bringing the inflation to the level of 2,8% when compared to the previous year. On a positive side were also jobs figures, where a total of 7,74M new jobs were opened in February, above market expectations of 7,63M. However, surprising figures came from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, which was much lower from the market forecast. Preliminary figure for March was standing at 57,9, lower from estimated 64,7. At the same time, inflation expectations were increased to the level of 4,9%. The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for March 19th, when Fed officials will also discuss the current market conditions and forecasts.
The integration of the crypto market into the mainstream markets continues through new exchange traded funds, which large investment fund managers are currently filling for with the SEC. As per news published during the previous week, VanEck, a large US investment firm, has filed with SEC a launch of the exchange traded fund which will follow the Avalanche avax coin. Previously, Franklin Templeton, another investment firm, filed a launch of the ETF which will follow the price of XRP, while in February this year, the fund also filed a launch of an ETF following Solana`s spot price.
BTC related convertible bonds are now available to retail investors through the REX exchange traded fund. The convertible bonds of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy represent the majority of funds assets. Other holdings include convertible bonds from several crypto miners. The REX ETF was launched on NASDAQ (BMAX), with 0,85% expense ratio and total AUM of $25M.
Crypto market cap
Tariffs-on, tariffs-off were the major driver of the sentiment on financial markets during the previous period. The crypto market was also driven by the generally negative mood of investors which were trying to position for the uncertain future developments. The fear of potential negative effects of imposed tariffs is embedded into current positioning of investors. The crypto market continued with the downtrend during the start of the previous week, but then tried to recover as the week passed on. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by a modest 2% on a weekly basis, losing total $50B in value. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of $129B on a daily basis, a shy increase from around $102B traded a week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -16%, with $510B outflow of funds.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. Some altcoins managed to recover from losses incurred from the start of the week. In this sense, BTC managed to close the week in a red territory with a minor loss of around 1,5% on a weekly basis, where its total cap was decreased by $25B. ETH had a stronger weekly loss of more than 10%, where $ 26B was wiped out in its market value. Polygon and Uniswap were both down by around 10% in value during the week, while Algorand and Maker ended the week more than 8% lower. On the opposite trading side was XRP, who managed to add to its value 4% w/w, increasing its cap by $5,5B. BNB was also one of coins with a solid week, as it increased its market cap by 5,7% or $4,77B. OMG Network should be specially mentioned, as the coin increased its value by more than 13% during the week.
There has been a modest development with coins in circulation of certain altcoins. Tether had an increase of its value and also its circulating coins by 0,5% w/w. LINK made an increase of its coins on the market by 3%, while Solana, Algorand and Filecoin had an increase of 0,2%, each. On the opposite side was Maker, with a decrease of -0,5% of its total coins on the market.
Crypto futures market
Although Friday's trading session brought some positive sentiment to the crypto market, still, futures did not manage to catch up with a positive territory. Both BTC and ETH futures ended the week in red compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures were traded lower by around 2,8% for all maturities. In this sense, December 2025 was closed at the price of $90.950, and December 2026 closed the week at $98.945.
ETH futures had a stronger drop in value compared to the previous week, between 10% and 11%. ETH futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $2.057, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.211.
Is the Total Crypto Marketcap gearing up for a major move?A few months ago, the total crypto market cap surged past its previous highs, reaching a new all-time high of $3.7 trillion.
The current pullback appears to be a bullish retest of the breakout level, potentially setting the stage for the next upward leg.
Money Flow - 2### Money Flow Spread from DJI to Cryptocurrency: A Fibonacci Perspective
The financial markets operate in an interconnected ecosystem where capital flows between asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, investor sentiment, and risk appetite. One such dynamic involves the movement of funds from traditional markets like the **Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)**—a barometer of blue-chip stocks—to emerging asset classes such as **cryptocurrencies**. This phenomenon can often be analyzed using **Fibonacci retracements and extensions**, which serve as powerful tools for identifying key support, resistance, and potential price targets during shifts in market momentum.
#### 1. **Market Sentiment and Capital Rotation**
- The DJI represents large-cap equities that are heavily influenced by institutional investors, central bank policies, and global economic conditions. When these factors trigger volatility or uncertainty in traditional markets, investors may seek alternative investments with higher growth potential or hedging properties.
- Cryptocurrencies, known for their decentralized nature and high volatility, attract speculative capital during periods when confidence in traditional assets wanes. For instance:
- During bearish trends in the DJI, characterized by falling prices and increased selling pressure, some investors might reallocate portions of their portfolios into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH).
- Conversely, bullish trends in the DJI could signal improved risk appetite, prompting a portion of crypto gains to rotate back into equities.
#### 2. **Fibonacci Retracements: Identifying Key Levels**
- Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and are widely used in technical analysis to predict areas of support and resistance. These levels (e.g., 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) help identify potential turning points in price action.
- In the context of money flow from the DJI to cryptocurrencies:
- A significant decline in the DJI could lead to a pullback to Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 38.2% or 61.8%). At these junctures, traders may reassess their positions and consider diversifying into cryptocurrencies.
- Similarly, after a sharp rally in cryptocurrencies, prices might retrace to Fibonacci levels before continuing upward. Investors exiting equities due to underperformance might view these retracements as entry points for digital assets.
#### 3. **Fibonacci Extensions: Projecting Price Targets**
- While retracements focus on corrective moves within a trend, Fibonacci extensions project potential price targets beyond the initial move. Common extension levels include 127.2%, 161.8%, and 261.8%.
- In scenarios where money flows out of the DJI and into cryptocurrencies:
- If the DJI experiences a prolonged downtrend, its losses could coincide with outsized gains in cryptocurrencies. Fibonacci extensions can help forecast how far crypto prices might rise amid this influx of capital.
- For example, if Bitcoin breaks above a key resistance level following a surge in inflows from equities, traders might use Fibonacci extensions to estimate future price milestones (e.g., $100,000 or $200,000).
#### 4. **Psychological Drivers Behind the Transition**
- Fibonacci levels resonate with traders because they align with natural human tendencies toward symmetry and proportion. This psychological aspect amplifies their relevance when analyzing cross-market dynamics.
- As money exits the DJI and enters cryptocurrencies, Fibonacci-based trading strategies provide a framework for understanding how participants perceive value across different asset classes. For instance:
- Institutional investors exiting equities might anchor their decisions around Fibonacci-derived thresholds, ensuring disciplined entry and exit points in volatile crypto markets.
- Retail traders, who dominate much of the cryptocurrency space, also rely on Fibonacci tools to time their trades, creating self-reinforcing patterns that influence overall market behavior.
#### 5. **Case Study Example**
- Imagine a scenario where the DJI drops sharply due to rising interest rates or geopolitical tensions. The index falls from 35,000 to 30,000—a decline of approximately 14%. Traders observe Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% ($31,900) and 61.8% ($33,100), expecting temporary bounces at these levels.
- Simultaneously, Bitcoin rallies from $20,000 to $30,000 as investors seek refuge in digital gold. Using Fibonacci extensions, analysts project further upside to $38,200 (127.2%) or even $48,500 (161.8%), attracting additional capital from equity markets.
#### 6. **Conclusion**
- The interplay between the DJI and cryptocurrencies highlights the fluidity of modern financial markets. By leveraging Fibonacci retracements and extensions, traders can better anticipate shifts in money flow and position themselves strategically.
- Whether driven by macroeconomic headwinds, technological innovation, or evolving investor preferences, the migration of capital from traditional indices like the DJI to digital assets underscores the growing convergence of old and new finance. Fibonacci analysis serves as a bridge, offering insights into both the timing and magnitude of these transitions.
Total Market Cap path to $6T this cycle An idea for CRYPTO TOTAL MC cycle top. While we are in a seemingly brutal correction I am zooming out and going back to previous cycle patterns. This cycle is taking longer than those that came before. This is neither good or bad, but rather is a signal that BTC is gaining adoption and converging with traditional markets imo. This will expand the horizon for crypto as a whole and add to its total market cap. As traders and HODL'rs we do not have control of the timeline, but we have control of when we hit the buy/sell button. So far this cycle we've seen ~20% gain from previous ATH. This is not why we are here. Godspeed
Crypto Total Market Cap (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL) As of March 12, 2025, the Total Crypto Market Cap sits at 2.63T USD.
Let’s dive into the monthly chart for a technical breakdown:
Since 2016, price has been moving within a long-term ascending channel. Right now, we’re testing the lower trendline support zone (2.4T - 2.5T).
This level has historically acted as a strong base – both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs kicked off from similar support zones.
Volume profile shows a 15-20% increase over the past 3 months, indicating growing buyer interest and improving market liquidity.
RSI is at 40 (neutral zone), not yet in oversold territory but signaling a potential base for a recovery.
Bullish Scenario: If the 2.5T support holds, we could see a move toward the channel’s midline (3T - 3.5T range), potentially retesting the 2021 highs above 3T.
Bearish Risk: A break below 2.5T could lead to a deeper pullback toward 2T, so keep this level on your radar.
💡 My Take: I believe we’re either at the bottom or just a few weeks away from the start of a new uptrend. April could mark the beginning of a bull run, signaling the end of the bloodbath – at least based on the technicals of the Total Market Cap.
What’s your view? Will the 2.5T support hold, or are we in for another correction?
TOTAL Marketcap at important support?Upcoming period could be more positive?
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts too, showing the same pattern. Is the reversal starting?
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli
MARKETS week ahead: March 10 – 16Last week in the news
The February US NFP data were below market expectations, however, the market sentiment is still highly under the influence of US trade tariffs. The US equity market had a correction during the previous week, with S&P 500 closing the week at the level of 5.770. The weakening of the US Dollar stopped further surge in the price of gold, but it still ended the week with a weekly gain, reaching the level of $2.909. The US Treasury yields reversed after reaching the lowest weekly level at 4,1%, ending the week at 4,30%. BTC is still in a roller coaster mood, testing the $90K, but still ending the week around the $86K.
The US Nonfarm payrolls data for February came a bit lower from the market forecast. The US economy added 151K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see a figure of around 170K. At the same time, the unemployment rate for February was modestly increased to the level of 4,1%, from 4,0% posted previously. Regardless of a weaker than expected jobs data in February, the major concern of investors continues to be trade tariffs of the US Administration toward the main trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, China and the European Union.
The trade war started by the US Administration is spilling its effects on other countries. As per latest news, China is planning to impose sanctions on some Canadian goods, including agriculture and oil products, from 100% to 25%, depending on the goods. Tariffs are scheduled to come into force on March 20th. At the same time, Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which came into force in October last year.
“We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity” said Fed Chair Powell at a Policy forum during the previous week. This comment was made on the latest trade tariffs of the US Administration, noting that the combination of measures in the sphere of tariffs, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation will have a combined effect on the US economy.
During the previous week, the US President signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile. The BTC market had only a mild reaction to this news.
UBS analysts are noting in their research that China might experience its own “GPT moment”. They noted that Chinese start-ups are rapidly innovating and integrating AI technology. The bank emphasized a product called Monica.ai Manus as a standout example of a program capable of doing many tasks including data analysis and coding.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was following general sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. The correlation with the US equity market continues as the crypto market entered the mainstream. The US President signed the executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, however, the market reaction was relatively mild. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat during the previous week, regardless of a higher volatility within the week. Daily trading volumes were also relatively flat compared to the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -14%, with $460B outflow of funds.
BTC had a relatively volatile week, however, it managed to close the previous week relatively flat compared to the week before. ETH had a modest drop in the market cap of 2,2%, with an outflow of $ 6B in funds. Other major altcoins also had a relatively negative week. DOGE was traded down by 8,4%, decreasing its total market cap by $2B. Solana had also a modest drop of 2,3% w/w, decreasing its cap by $1,6B. BNB was down by 3%, with a decrease in the value of $1,6B. On the opposite side was ADA, who managed to end the week in positive territory, with a surge in value of 22% or $5,1B. Tron also had a good week, increasing its value by 13,6%, or $2,7B. Other altocins were traded in a mixed manner.
During the previous week Tron had an increase in the market value, but it also increased its coins in circulation by 10% on a weekly basis. This was one of the highest weekly increases for this coin. Stablecoin Tether is back on a positive territory, with an increase of circulating coins of 0,3% this week. Solana and IOTA also had an increase in the number of coins on the market by 0,3% each.
Crypto futures market
The general market sentiment impacted the crypto futures market to trade in a mixed manner during the previous week. Although BTCs spot market remained flat, still, its futures market gained above 3% for all maturities. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $93.550 and those maturing a year later were last traded at $101.800.
On the opposite side were ETH futures which closed the week around 3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded around 3,2% lower, at $2.298. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2026 were traded lower by 2,7%, closing the week at $2.470.
Crypto Total Market Cap ($TOTAL)Disclaimer: All the information and analysis serve only as educational purposes and hence should not be regarded as investment advice.
Here is my thought on the potential weekly price action of the crypto total market cap, $TOTAL.
Overall, the market structure still remains bullish by consistently creating higher highs and higher lows since 2023 - currently price is forming the higher low. Horizontal support and diagonal uptrend trendline are both still respected. Historically, an RSI around 43 indicate a market bottom - current RSI is 43.1. Also, starting 2023, the return in Q1 and Q4 have proven to be positive while Q2 and Q3 have shown the opposite.
However, the tariff announcement by the U.S. President Donald Trump to Canada, Mexico, and China in Q1 2025 have created market uncertainty and thus, leading to market pullback in this quarter. BTC and ETH Spot ETFs have experienced net outflow in February 2025 although the outflows are slowing down in the beginning of March 2025. The fear and greed index has also entered into the fear area.
On the other hand, the signing of the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and the social media post of U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve (BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, SOL to be specific) by President Donald Trump suggest improved future adoption of crypto not only by institutions, but also nations. For this reason, I believe that as of the date of writing, the total crypto market cap chart ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) is reaching a local bottom of around $2.5T and will remain bullish for the rest of 2025 with a target of around $7.2T-$8.7T by the end of the year.
Invalidation: If the price action shows a weekly candle close below the diagonal trendline and the previous low of $1.69T, then the above analysis will be invalidated and the crypto market may enter turn into bearish.
Why the US strategic reserve is a bad thing for crypto.Another Controversial Opinion
Honestly, I’m frustrated with how this is unfolding. Crypto was never meant to be controlled by the USA—it was created as a humanitarian concept to empower individuals, offering a decentralized, anonymous, and universally accessible financial system.
But, as always, when there's money, resources, or anything valuable, the USA steps in to take control.
Take the music industry as an example—one of many sectors transformed (or destroyed) by the US.
Why Is the US Crypto Stockpile a Bad Thing?
Because it goes against Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision.
By aggressively accumulating and stockpiling Bitcoin, the US is making crypto less attractive to the rest of the world. People who assume every country will blindly follow the US are mistaken. What's beneficial for the US is not necessarily good for China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, or any country competing against US financial dominance.
Unlike gold, which can be mined anywhere, the US stockpiling over 200,000 Bitcoin gives it a massive advantage. Other nations may reject crypto simply because they see it becoming a US-controlled asset.
The Political Weaponization of Crypto
Now, Trump is positioning himself as "The Crypto President"—which, while beneficial under his leadership, means that Democrats will inevitably become the anti-crypto party.
Turning crypto into a political weapon is dangerous in the long run. Is gold tied to a political party? No. So why should crypto be?
Conclusion
Crypto needed regulation, and that’s it.
The US obsession with controlling everything valuable often ends up destroying it.
Let’s not forget: crypto is nothing without its global communities—and where are most of these people? In countries that are actively resisting US financial dominance, primarily in the BRICS nations.
When Trump and his family rug-pulled $1 billion through Trump/Melania meme coins, that money didn’t just come from the US—it came mostly from foreign investors gambling on memes.
This is not what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned when he released Bitcoin as open-source software for humanity.
The end result? The SPX500 dictates the market, Bitcoin follows, and altcoins mirror Bitcoin. Wall Street is now the puppet master of crypto.
If crypto follows the path of the music industry, billionaires will get richer, but ordinary people won’t. Altcoins will be wiped out, and Bitcoin will dominate everything.