TOTAL macro. These thoughts have been expressed by many traders in one way
or another, and I tend to share them.
However, I want to make my own picture. It helps my thinking.
Elliott Waves are not my base method, but this model base situation
can be really can be seen on a weekly global chart.
It's important to apply it here so that you don't get lost in the
pictures of the smaller timeframes.
Let's go back in time.
So, 5 impulse waves happened
May 2017 through November 2021.
4.5 years of growth (1652 days).
Correction that started at the end took a year and two months
to form Leg A (Nov. 21 - Jan. 23).
We are now a full year inside leg B, which is what is called a bear rally.
And this is where we need to pay attention to the trend line.
As far as I've been able to be accurate, the wick will touch this
line at about ~1.835. And then what happens?
The market should take off breaking the trend without completing
the global pattern? It's been up for 1652 days.
And correction so far is only 784 days if you look at these macro waves.
There is some disproportionality in that.
I believe correction should be aiming for at least 2/3 of the time that
the rise has amounted to.
Or if the market decides there is no time, then the execution
of the pattern should be literally rapids.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything you don't like.
If you don't like it, pass by.
I always draw my charts for myself first and foremost, and only when I have no pity,
I publish them just to make my thoughts as useful as possible.
Conclusion. The market has about 0.11 TOTAL margin for an upward move
Let's take note of the high volume bar this week.
Isn't this the final sell-off.
You see, it's very hard to see this one coming.
I'd really like to say that a new cycle has begun.
But the correction pattern is the foundation for the next impulse wave cycle.
How can you want to eat the apple without planting the apple tree?
The altcoin explosion is a liquidity spillover from bitcoin.
But bitcoin should have a margin of growth.
And be a nudge trend.
Right now, the whole market is going to hit a trend line at the bottom.
How should this correlate with the fact that the underlying global
correction pattern comparable to the 2017-2021 growth period is not complete?
I'd prefer detailed explanations.
TOTAL trade ideas
📈 Major Crypto Market-Wide Correction | Run For Your Life!Good Sunday my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, how are you feeling today?
Can you feel it in the air?
Can you sense it?
Time is running out... All hell is about to break loose.
The Cryptocurrency market is preparing for the classic and major pre-halving event correction and while we are not yet there, it is getting close.
On this chart we can see TOTAL moving daily below EMA10 after moving out of rising wedge.
We can see the biggest increase in daily sell volume in more than a year and EMA50 being tested on a wick January 3, a preview of what is to come.
One of the whales moved first and caused this major draw-down but the big crash is yet to materialize...
The good news.
Corrections are a normal part of market action. Just as prices move up, they also move down as the market moves in waves. Cryptocurrency, aka Bitcoin, has been growing since November 2022 straight up and now it needs a break.
We normally see a correction before the halving and that's most likely what we are witnessing will start unfolding in just a few days, weeks max, this same month.
It won't be a long drawn out correction, instead it will be fast, steep and strong.
👉 After the low is in, we will get a slow recovery lasting for months... It will grow and grow and grow in 2024 and beyond.
This is just a friendly warning.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
The blockchain market cap is clearly in a strong uptrend.The total token market capitalization -the single most relevant KPI in the blockchain industry- is clearly in a stage 2 (uptrend).
Tens of trillions of dollars should join blockchain protocols if we aim to make DeFi and blockchian the baseline of our economy, so there is still a hug path ahead, but fiat spot ETFs could bring more liquidity into blockchain assets.
Nearly all of our trading models are long in blockchain assets with trend-following and break-out strategies,
MARKETS week ahead: January 8 - 13Last week in the news
Markets are slowly heating up after a Holiday break and summary of last year's results. For the majority the year 2023 was a positive one, although with a glimpse of turbulence. Gold managed to finally break the $2K psychological line, ending the year above $2.050 level. The S&P 500 also managed to reach new highs at the end of the year, in expectation of interest rate drops somewhere in Y2024. On the same grounds, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark ended the year around 3.8%. For another year, the crypto market managed to beat the traditional ones, with significant yearly gain of more than 100%. The story related to the first spot BTC ETF is still holding the value of the whole market, especially the price of Bitcoin.
Previous year on markets, although the turbulent one, still managed to end on a positive note and significant yearly gains. The policy makers were certainly the ones in the center of market interest. After strong rate increases of more than 500 bps, the US Fed reached the point of a potential for a reversal. Inflation of targeted 2% is in the center of Fed's monetary policy, but the inflation has been resistant for some time. This imposed a discussion among market participants whether there will be a hard landing, soft landing or no landing at all in the US economy? However, the US economy showed a clear resilience for the strong interest rate hikes, surprising even the FOMC members. During Q4 2023 market slowly started to ignore Fed`s narrative, in expectation of a soon pivoting point. In Q4 the Fed gave up from further rate increases, which was the moment of celebration in markets. They were relieved to finally start positioning for a rate cut in the coming year. This was also a starting point for the Y2024.
Still, regardless of the US economy's resilience, not all industries were resilient to strong rate increases. During Y2023 we witnessed several bank collapses like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Heartland Tri-State Bank. Relatively bad asset and liability management, connections to the crypto industry and bank run-offs were some of the main reasons for these financial institutions to discontinue their businesses. Luckily, there has not been a high scale of contamination, in which sense, the rest of the financial system went through these crises intact.
The crypto industry was also in the center of market interest due to several reasons. First, there were several pledges and proceedings made by US authorities, especially the SEC. The most well known scandal over the FTX exchanger ended in November last year, when its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven charges of money laundering and fraud. Another news that spotted the market interest was a finalization of court proceedings against the founder of Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, who was found guilty of violation of several rules related to anti money laundering. Binance has settled charges by agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to the US regulators. Within the next five years, the Binance exchanges would most probably cease to exist. Although this was huge news, still, the market reacted positively to it, increasing the value of the crypto market. This actually came as a positive news for investors as they perceived that there will finally be some order within the crypto industry, so that the market would be able to further develop into a mainstream.
Another big news within the both crypto and main financial industries was that some of the biggest players on the Wall Street have filed with the SEC to start operations with a spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds. These names include BlackRock, VanEck, Valkyrie Investments, Fidelity and Wisdom Tree Investments, to name a few. It should be added that few asset managers like BlackRock and Ark Investment applied for first spot ETH ETF. Filings are still on the table, waiting for a final call from the SEC. This continues to be one of the main topics on the crypto market for Y2024. In case that ETFs are approved, analysts are betting on a further significant increase of the value of the crypto market.
Crypto market cap
The first half of the year 2023 was quite a challenging one for the crypto market capitalization. The market cap fell even below the $1 trillion mark, and many analysts were predicting its further move to the downside. However, in Q4 2023, something happened which the market is calling the “BlackRock effect”, when the largest asset manager in the world announced its filing for the first spot BTC ETF in the US. This was a huge breakthrough for the crypto market, when it bounces back, ending the year above $1.6 trillion. This is still below its all time highs, however, currently the market looks at a positive direction. On this road there are still some obstacles mostly related to the regulatory environment. It should not be forgotten that regulators still perceive this market in the gray zone when it comes to full compliance with regulation. While the market participants are calling for a clear regulation within a field of the crypto industry, the SEC and its Chair Gensler, continue to stick with the narrative that regulation already exists and that the vast majority of both coins and crypto products should fully comply with the US Law on securities. In other words, anyone who wants to offer any kind of crypto product, especially staking, should first file with the SEC for approval to offer security-like products. Challenges for the crypto industry within the regulatory framework will continue to be a high priority of the regulators all around the world. As per US regulators, they still perceive both altcoins and stablecoins as highly risky assets, with high potential of frauds and those not fitting into anti money laundering laws. On the opposite side is the whole crypto industry, which is still holding the view that they just need a completely new set of regulatory rules.
All challenges from Y2023 will stay in place for Y2024. Both promise and uncertainty will be in place for the crypto market during this year. Certainly increased adoption and continued institutional involvement could fuel further growth of this market. Still, the regulatory clarity and technological advancements will play an important role in shaping the future of the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization ended the year at a level of $1.638 trillion, which represents its starting point for Y2024. This level also represents a yearly gain of 117% where the crypto market added $882B.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market closely watched developments on the crypto spot market during the year 2023. Although the first half of the year was a bit shy when it comes to prices of long term futures, still, during the second half of the year there has been a record number of large open interest holders for both BTC and ETH futures. This was a promising sign that institutional investors are still not ready to give up on the crypto assets, especially BTC and ETH. As the market continued to express interest, the CME launched micro BTC and ETH futures, and made them available for smaller investors for investing or hedging purposes. However, it should be noted that such a move was additional support to increased trading volume and liquidity on the futures market. Long term BTC futures ended the year at levels above $ 48K, while ETH futures sustained a $2.5K level.
The End of Crypto for a Long TimeI'm being dramatic lol, but I just started going down the rabbit hole of what if the cycles don't just repeat like everyone says. I have been in crypto since 2013 and don't really think it's over, but I'm just playing devils advocate. I do think we hit a major resistnace and have at least a local top on our hands. If the cycle was ever to stop we have a major confluence of 3 resistances, even breaking of the 2013 uptrend line is not a good sight. Do I really think the cycle is over? No, but I did take enough profit in case hah, It's just really been bugging me how many people say just buy and hold and you're fine, I have never seen that many people confortable with crypto in previous cycles which is freaky to me, but this is where my contrarian side can get me in trouble. I'm just going to continue to play the charts, but if crypto were to completely hault for a long time, this would be the confluence to do it.
Total Marketcap Trading at a Range High.The total market cap has tapped 1.7 Trillion 3 times recently. This 3rd tap is as BTC is trying to hold $47,000. If the market fails to push through this 1.7 Trillion level I see it as Bearish, indicating a potential correction in price. Anyway id love to hear some thoughts on this, feel free to leave a comment.
📉📈 Cryptocurrency Market Overview (TOTAL)🌐💱📆 Recent Trends:
In the past month, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) has been consolidating between $1.52 trillion and $1.70 trillion.
🤔 Anticipation and Caution:
Market reflects caution and anticipation ahead of potential ETF news.
Despite being oversold, the market is expected to stay within this range until the ETF decision.
🚀 Potential Outcomes:
ETF Approval: Total market cap could surge beyond $1.70 trillion.
ETF Rejection: Downward move likely, with support levels around $1.40 trillion to $1.45 trillion.
Stay tuned for the ETF decision impact! 📰💹
#CryptoMarketUpdate #ETFDecision #MarketAnalysis 🌐📊
TOTAL IS BULLISH (Important)🔷 Before anything else, you should know that the TOTLA symbol represents the total value of the market, including Bitcoin and other altcoins.
The total is forming a large diametric on the daily time frame. It seems now that we are in wave E of this diametric and we can go up to the red zone, but a pullback is needed to the green zone.
$TOTAL - Bitcoin Halving Sparks $10 Trillion Crypto TsunamiThe cryptocurrency market is poised to grow from $1.5 trillion to $10-12 trillion in the next two years.
Key factors
Bitcoin halving in 2024,
Increasing institutional adoption,
Rise of decentralized finance (DeFi),
Integration of blockchain technology across industries,
Global economic uncertainty driving demand for alternative assets,
Ongoing technological advancements making cryptocurrencies more accessible.
These factors collectively contribute to the positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
! Not an advice - DYOR !
Total RSI Pringing H&S - Lower 15%-30% I think*Ignore the cluttered chart lol, look at the RSI study.
In Sept 2023 RSI showed an IHS and now it's painting a H&S, I think the FOMO is pretty unreal. Most are worried about missing the ETF launch, I think it's ripe for a rug. I do think the EVENT is priced in, a lot say that the demand isn't which I agree but I think the launch will be a seperate event. I don't speculate just play the charts and I think it's looking bearish.
Total also broke a rising bearish wedge.
Crypto TOTAL Market Cappreviously I called for not shorting any thing right at bottom watch my tweet x.com
now from 0.25 weekly we have break out 0.5 and now its at 0.75 witch is around 1.7T
just wanned to say longing here is stupid to me and i believe you should not do it too until TOTAL reaches 476B
TOTAL market cap | Q1 2024 Will it be Red ?CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Hi fam,
Okay, 1.65T $ was lost due to FUD from the ETF rejection report leak and the market dumped to MA50 in D1 at 1.50T $.
This was good from different perspectives. Funding rates are mostly reset. The fear and greed index cooled down a bit and dropped from 70 to 68. Today we had a good recovery in the market and the TOTAL market cap reached the broken support of 1.65T $ which acts as resistance this time.
I think of more bearish moves after such a flush dump (despite all the fuds) and as I said in my previous posts Q1 2024 is expected to be Red with the last buying chance for most of the coins.
The trend moves in a parallel channel (most likely to be the distribution phase) and swept the range high and closed below the range and flushed to the midline of the channel and bounced. This will be more like a dead cat bounce and I expect to see lows to get swept at 1.46T $ in the coming days. The final target lies at 1.3T for the coming weeks.
As always, These are my ideas and might be wrong. Please DYOR.