It's time to pay for the bullrun of yesteryearHi all,
This is a very bold idea for me.
But this is how I see further developments: M1/M2 liquidity is declining, the Fed is actively withdrawing liquidity, and this cannot but affect the further development of the crypto market.
And for all of us, this is a time to think and learn new things.
Regards,
Eugene
TOTAL trade ideas
#TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSISThe total market cap has experienced significant breakouts above the MA 100, Ichimoku cloud, and the primary horizontal resistance. Historical data reveals strong bullish rallies following breakouts beyond the MA 100 and Ichimoku cloud.
Therefore, there is a high likelihood of a strong bullish rally as long as the market continues to trade above the specified key indicators.
📈 Cryptocurrency Retraces & Corrections | Buy Opportunity!As prices either grow or shrink, move up or down, there are always retraces and corrections in between, this is considered normal market action.
Notice the bear market on the left side of the chart, while we have strong bearish waves there are always periods of corrections, upward moves within the down-wave.
Now notice the action the Cryptocurrency market has been producing since November 2022, while it has been growing since, there are always red weeks in between. In fact, there are as many red candles as there are green.
Five steps forward, three steps back.
➖ When the market takes the time to move back and retrace, that's an opportunity to enter if you missed the initial bullish wave.
➖ When prices are crashing down to later trade either low or near support, that's the best time to buy before everything grows.
➖ When prices grow fast and new resistance levels are met everyday, that's the time to sell.
Each time a strong resistance level is hit, a retrace or correction tends to develop.
👉 Corrections and retraces are a great opportunity buy-in, rebuy and reload.
This is not financial advice.
Remember to build a plan before trading, there is always risk involved.
Choose your targets before-hand, as well as a stop-loss.
Thank you for reading and for your support... It is appreciated.
Namaste.
MARKETS week ahead: November 13 – 19Last week in the news
Fed Chair Powell's speech one more time impacted the market sentiment, where EU equities finished the week lower, while positive sentiment still holds the US equities. Gold and commodities eased during the previous week, as well as 10Y US Treasuries. The crypto markets continue to be under impact of the ETF frenzy, which might continue to hold in the weeks to come. Bitcoin tested levels above $37K; however, $38K resistance remains a hard task.
Fed Chair Powell held a speech for the IMF audience in Washington during the previous week, where he noted that he is still not sure if he and his Fed colleagues have done enough to bring the inflation down to targeted 2%. He noted that they are still balancing between doing too much and doing too little. He also addressed the market expectations that the Fed might cut rates during the course of the next year, noting that Fed will increase further interest rates if inflation “reaccelerates”. After the speech, the equity market headed for lower levels, while 2Y Treasury yields again headed toward the 5%.
Rating agencies continue to lose confidence in the US Government. During the previous week, the rating agency Moody's cut the US long term credit rating to negative from stable. This is the result of rising risks when the country's fiscal policy is in question. As noted in the agency's statement “in the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues”, the agency puts into question further debt affordability for the US Government.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed his opinion that the SEC has “lost sight of their mission to protect investors” in an interview with CNBC. The SEC and the crypto industry have been on different sides for some time now. While, on one side SEC is insisting to put the crypto industry into the current legal framework related to securities, even through legal disputes, the crypto industry is not ready to comply, requesting a different set of laws. Several legal cases have been won, where dispute with Ripple was the first, and lasted for more than two years. Ripple won as the judge ruled that XRP is not a security. Garlinghouse expressed his hopes that the crypto regulation will stop being ruled by court decisions and that laws governing digital currencies will be adopted by the Congress.
While the spot BTC ETF frenzy is still hot on the market, another one hit it during the previous week. There has been news that BlackRock, the largest asset management fund in the world, is seeking ways to list its first ETH ETF, while still waiting for the SEC`s approval of its first BTC ETF. The news came out that the entity called iShares Ethereum Trust has been registered in Delaware, US. Whether this news is true, BlackRock officials refused to comment, however, ETH was significantly supported with it, reaching $2.1K during the week.
The United Kingdom has scheduled a world conference for crypto tax evasion for the year 2027. The aim of this initiative is to set rules by which tax authorities between countries, signatories of the agreement, will exchange information between each other with the aim to fight offshore crypto tax evasion. Currently 48 countries signed up, however, several largest countries when it comes to the crypto industry, like Turkey, India, China, African countries and Russia are not within signatory to the statement.
Crypto market cap
ETF frenzy is widely shaking the crypto market. During the last few weeks it was all about potential introduction of the first spot BTC ETF, however, starting from the previous week, the frenzy added to it Ethereum`s token ETH. Namely, there has been published news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, is seeking the way to list its first spot EFH ETF. The company refused to comment on this news, so for the moment, there is a question whether such news is officially true or not. Still, as markets like to buy the news and later sell the fact, it did not matter too much for investors who were rushing to invest both into BTC and ETH. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% during the week, adding $125B to its value. The crypto market cap reached the level of almost $1.4 trillion, the last time seen in April last year. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased during the week, reaching a level of $104B on a daily basis, which might be treated as the crypto market is getting back to its old track. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 84%, where it has added total $637B to the market cap.
It was another positive week for almost all crypto coins on the crypto market. Gains during the week are reminiscent of a period when the crypto market was booming. Almost all coins gained during the week, with BTC and ETH leading the market. In nominal terms BTC was once again the weekly winner of the market, which added $47B to its market cap or almost 7%. ETH managed to beat BTC in relative terms, by increasing its market cap by 13.3%, adding to it almost $30B on a weekly basis. Major altcoins also had significant gains, like Solana, with an incredible weekly increase in value of 43% where it has added a total $7.5B to its market cap. Among significant gainers are also BNB, which gained $2.8B or 8%, LINK added $2.8% or 45%, ADA surged by $2.45B or 21.5%. Both Polkadot and Polygon increased their market cap by $1.4B both, increasing it by around 24%. It should be noted also significant gain made by XRP of $3.4B or 10.6% on a weekly basis. All other altcoins were among weekly gainers.
There has also been significant activity when it comes to coins in circulation. Tether is back in the game, by adding 1.5% coins and increasing its market value for this amount. Polkadot managed to increase its circulating coins by 4.6%, while Algorand`s coins were up by 1.0%. Filecoin has also added new coins into circulation of 0.9% w/w. There have been a lot of other altcoins which increased the number of available coins by at least 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
The frenzy from the BTC and ETH spot market was also reflected in the futures market for these coins. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 7%, while the longer term ones were up by more than 4%. Futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $37.985 or 7.59% higher from the week before, while those maturing in December next year closed the week at price of $39.885. It is interesting to note that BTC futures maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $40.615, which is a significant breakthrough when it comes to the expectations of the BTC price for the future period.
ETH futures were strongly supported by the unconfirmed news that BlackRock will probably file for the ETH ETF in the future period. Short term futures were traded higher by an incredible 14%, while long term ones were up by more than 12% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year finished the week at price $2.135, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.175. It is positive for ETH that its price for the future period managed to finally break the $2K psychological line.
TOTAL Market and Leading Cryptos: Technical OutlookThe provided TradingView chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL) presents a comprehensive view of the market's overall health and trend. Here's an in-depth analysis incorporating the technical indicators shown:
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):
The chart displays EMAs for 50, 100, and 200 periods. The 50 EMA is commonly used to gauge short-term trends, the 100 EMA for medium-term, and the 200 EMA for long-term trends. Currently, the price is above all three EMAs, suggesting a bullish trend across these time frames.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
The MACD line (blue) and the signal line (orange) are approaching a convergence. A bullish crossover, where the blue line crosses above the orange, could indicate potential upward momentum. The histogram (green and red bars) reflects the difference between these two lines, with green bars suggesting bullish momentum and red bars indicating bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI is around 56.74, which is above the mid-point of 50 but still below the overbought threshold of 70, indicating there is room for upward price movement before the market is considered overbought.
On-Balance Volume (OBV):
The OBV is trending upwards, indicating that buying pressure is increasing, which could be a bullish sign.
Price Action:
Bitcoin (BTC): As a market leader, COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC often sets the trend for the crypto market. An uptrend in BTC usually lifts the entire market, including altcoins.
Ethereum (ETH): Often moves in correlation with BTC but has its own fundamentals, like network upgrades, that can affect its price independently.
Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA): These altcoins have their own ecosystems and are influenced by both the broader market trend and project-specific developments.
Considering the indicators and the price action above key EMAs, the growth trajectory for the market seems positive. However, the potential for volatility remains, given the inherent risks of the crypto market. For individual coins like BTC and ETH, network developments, adoption rates, and regulatory news will be key growth drivers.
For altcoins like SOL and ADA, advancements in their respective platforms, scalability improvements, and successful project launches could contribute to their growth.
This analysis suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, with close monitoring of the mentioned indicators for signs of trend reversals or continuation. Always remember to consider other fundamental factors and market news when assessing the crypto market.
Total 1day Log chart looks 2 b finally triggering channel brkoutWe can see here on the log chart that the brown descending channel on the 1 day timeframe finally appears to be getting a confirmation impulse. The target for this breakout is around 1.324 trillion. Keep in mind we also have the dotted blue measure move line to reach eventually much much higher up. *not financial advice*
15 consecutive daily candles above totals descending channelWe can see price action came back down to retest the top trendline of this descending brown channel with exact precision and held above it now for 14 consecutive 1day candle closes. It is very likely to close a 15th consecutive candle here soon. We can see one wick back below the top trendline of the channel that was ultimately supported by the 1 day 5ma(in orange). That 50ma is now getting closes to rising above the channel itself for added springboard support. We can also see that the daily stoch rsi is reet as well with plenty of room to head upward. Everything is looking very good for the breakout of this channel to be validated in the ear future. *not financial advice*
Jpow's moment ''JCTFD''Banker's wars FUDing pleb since the creation of the bearer bond.
Often funding both sides of war conflicts.
DYOR on Elites banking. Macron is an example of quality grooming.
DYOR on the Balfour Letter of November 2, 1917, and the original proposed plan.
DYOR on Great Britain's broken promises.
We can't print ourselves out of this fiat standard mess and the hyperinflation coming from unsustainable global warming growth. JPow getting nervous and it shows. JCTFD viral meme is on.
Parabolic move for the Cryrto's Total MC. Many in chat were complacent and said Bitty is boring. Savvy Bulls and Web3 know better. Accumulate Bitcoin as you can. There are no supplies, only scalpers shorting here. Take advantage. Clear skies until BTC at $47K.
OMS
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap - A Guide For RiskThe Market Capitilization of the cryptocurrency market has rightfully exploded in the past month, adding over 1/3rd of a Trillion dollars to the value of the market.
Market Cap. exploded through our previous resistance area and has now ventured into a Low-Volume Node on the VRVP Indicator. Low-Volume Node zones are prone to high volatility and explosive movements, due to the lack of previous demand or liquidity in that zone.
We have hit our final level of resistance, the high from a previous consolidation area created during the bear market of 2022.
Noting an interesting pattern from my momentum oscillator, ICYS Bot, which is a modification of our most popular indicator Mynx. Each time it has flashed an Overbought Sell Signal, market capitilization has continued to pump, but not much. It puts in a final leg up before a significant correction.
You can see this play out in October of 2022, January of 2023, and just now in October of 2023 as well. In each previous case, Market Cap has continued to put in a final upthrust before a correction.
I would tentatively anticipate and prepare for a correction here, and if we see Market Cap hold the 1.2 Trillion level (the previous resistance we just broke through), then our next target would be 1.6 Trillion, indicated by the target on the chart.
However, a loss of that level instead would be the first confirmation of a market-wide correction moving into early next year, which would be in line with our 4-Year Cycle Thesis and Market Projection.
Recommendations: Consider trimming or closing Long Positions if Market Cap rejects from current resistance, however long-term positional or swing-trades can be left open until we receive confirmation of whether Market Cap continues upwards from it's broken resistance, or falls back into the 2023 trading range.
TOTAL - LONG TERM SCENARIO UNTIL 2025As I believe this bull run cycle has been finished and we will enter the new fresh cycle, I have analyzed the Total market cap until 2025 which I think we can reach up to 12T which is around 5x from this point (2.20) but before it happens we need to finish the bear market. Another factor that makes the 12T idea quite possible is it will hit 1.27 Fibonacci. If that happens, we would have BTC around 200k, ETH 20K, and BNB AROUND 2500 in 2025. I know it depends on BTC dominance and Others and many other factors but just wanted to give you a very rough idea.
If you like the idea, hit the like button!
Ehsan.F
TOTAL - EVENING STAR CANDLE EMERGEDAn Evening Star candle occurring at the peak of the uptrend can indicate that the bullish is losing track and the trend is about to reverse. Evening Star candle shows the exhaustion after a cycle of the uptrends price pattern. We saw this pattern in BTC in April 2021 following a very strong red candle in May 2021. We can get a solid red candle this month (Dec 2021) as the Doji candle means bulls are not able to push the price up any further and then bears will step in to take control.
Ehsan.F
Update to my "Bottom most likely in based on Total"
Here is an update to my previous prediction made back in Jan 2023. Original Idea can be found above.
After breaking above the key 1.04T level we flipped it into new support and have risen about $300b to the 1.33T level. This level is currently a very important level of resistance as it was our macro level of support (for candle bodies) back in the bull market of 2021.
Also we could see some sort of wedge of support/resistance forming (orange trendlines). If this is a valid pattern we are right near the top of it.
The other thing to note is our weekly RSI for the total cryptocurrency marketcap. Everytime we reach overbought or briefly peak above (bottom red circles) we usually see some money exit the cryptocurrency market for a cooloff period. Right now we are exactly at overbought, but could briefly peak above.
A lot of ETF decisions will be made soon which could change things, but at the current moment I would use more caution rather than being risk-on at the current moment.
Total Market Cap Analysis: a Bullish Surge!Exciting times in the crypto realm! Total market cap broke free from its 1.200T shackles, signaling a robust bullish wave. 🚀
Breaking Barriers: A Bold Move
Breaking through the 1.200T level was a pivotal moment, transforming a former resistance into a launchpad for further gains.
The Next Horizon: Aiming for 1.500T
Eyes are now set on the 1.500T mark. This significant milestone promises both challenges and opportunities, enticing traders with the potential for substantial uptrends.
Bullish Patterns: Charting the Course
A promising Bull Flag pattern has emerged, indicating a continuing bullish trend. Smart entry strategies are vital, ensuring traders ride the wave effectively.
As we venture toward 1.500T, strategic entries are key. Stay alert, analyze trends, and seize the right moments. Welcome the opportunities, and let’s navigate these crypto waters together!
Happy trading!
$TOTAL: Total Crypto Market CapLong term trend has turned bullish in the Total Crypto Market Cap chart...
I had been waiting for this possibility since last month we had the bullish reversal in monthly scale, warning of the start of a bullish cycle in crypto once again.🎯🎯🎯
This is a great time to follow me here and on X as well as my other channels available.
As you know, I have a solid track record of capturing powerful trends in crypto as well as many other good calls in other markets. But crypto takes the crown when it comes to risk adjusted returns in the long term. Specially when considering that this chart is saying that the crypto market can expand from 1.32 Trillion to between 4.8 and 19.55 Trillion by Q1 2025 onwards.🤪
The CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL chart is a good reminder to start allocating more heavily to this market, and being ready to pounce when opportunities show up.
Best of luck!🤞🧧
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Is crypto ready to explode? Reversal pattern printing!From investopedia.com:
A Dragonfly Doji is a type of candlestick pattern that can signal a potential price reversal, either to the downside or upside, depending on past price action. It forms when the asset's high, open, and close prices are the same. The long lower shadow suggests that there was aggressive selling during the period of the candle, but since the price closed near the open, it shows that buyers were able to absorb the selling and push the price back up. The pattern is more significant if it occurs after a price decline, signaling a potential price rise. If it appears after a price advance, it indicates more selling is entering the market and a price decline could follow. The pattern needs to be confirmed by the candle following the Dragonfly Doji.
www.investopedia.com
Looks like this is exactly what is unfolding in the crypto Total Marketcap monthly chart.
If we print a Dragonfly Doji we can potentially see a reversal in the trendline. As you can see in the image below the Dragonfly Doji is printing:
So, what do we need to confirm the trend reversal?
First of all, we need a green candle at the end of this month and for this to happen the TOTAL MCAP needs to close around or above $1.034T. Right now it's at $1.042T.
If we have a Dragonfly Doji at the end of this month we can expect a trend reversal and a strong movement to the upside led by Ethereum then Bitcoin and other altcoins.
I am definitely bullish on #Bitcoin and #Ethereum. What about you?
Confirming the reversal I will add both to my longterm portfolio.
DYOR. This is not financial advice.
MARKETS week ahead: November 6 – 12Last week in the news
The Fed has temporarily stopped further increase of interest rates, as per Fed Chair Powell, but the market perceives that interest rates have topped. The US equities started November with a positive sentiment, as well as US Treasury bonds. Gold was testing $2K resistance during the whole week, amid geopolitical tensions. The crypto market is still under ETF hype mode, gaining during the week, but Bitcoin is still holding modestly below $35K resistance.
The major event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting, and rate decision as of November 1st. The Fed decided to hold interest rates unchanged, but at after-the-meeting testimony Fed Chair Powell noted that potential further rate increases are not excluded by FOMC members, as such decisions will depend on further developments in the US economy with respect to inflation and employment. Friday’s trading session was positively supported by the US unemployment figures. Non-farm payrolls were increased by 150K in October, lower from market expectations of 170K, while the unemployment rate rose to the level of 3.9% from 3.8% posted for the previous month. Wages were increased by 0.2% in October for the month, to 4.1% on a yearly basis. These figures represent one of the gauges for the Fed as a potential inflation indicator, in which sense, market expectations are that the inflation might further ease till the end of this year.
News that occupied the attention of the public during the previous week was the finalization of the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The jury found him guilty of all seven counts, by which, he is currently facing a potential sentence of 115 years in prison.
October ended, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not issue any approval or disapproval of several filings for the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC`s Chair Gary Gensler commented on Thursday that the SEC has 8 to 10 filings for considerations, without any further comment on the topic. It seems that the SEC still needs more time in order to make the final decision. Until then, analysts are speculating over the potential funds to inflow into the crypto market after the approval of the first ETF. Current estimates are ranging from $ 14B up to $55B within the next three years.
As Coindesk is reporting, the SEC requested additional documentation for PayPal`s stablecoin PYUSD. As seen by the reporters, this represents the latest regulatory action amid businesses that include crypto assets. As noted, it does not necessarily mean that potential lawsuits might be in store for PayPal, considering SEC`s perception that majority of altcoins and stablecoins are securities and should be officially registered with the SEC.
Crypto market cap
October is over, but there has not been any news related to the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC remained silent, neither approving, neither disapproving several ETF fillings. The only news reported by Reuters is that SEC Chair Gensler shortly commented that the Commission is currently reviewing 8-10 ETF filings. When the final decision will be brought up is unknown at this moment. Regardless of a new postponement of the decision, the market remains optimistic about the crypto market and its further inclusion into mainstream markets. During the previous week total crypto capitalization was increased by additional $35B or 2.8% on a weekly basis. Although Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto market cap, still, this week other altcoins contributed to the total increase of the market value. The last time the crypto market held this level of capitalization was during May last year. Daily trading volumes continue to hold at increased levels of $60B on a daily basis, without change on a weekly basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 68%, where it has added total $512B to the market cap.
Although Bitcoin is for one more week leader on the market when it comes to the total market cap increase, still, during the previous week there has been significant inflow of funds into major altcoins on the market. BTC increased its total capitalization by $11.8B on a weekly basis, which is an increase of 1.78%. ETH also had a solid performance with a surge of $5.3B in total market cap or 2.48% w/w. During the previous week Solana had an excellent performance, with an increase in its market cap by almost $ 4B, which represents a surge of 29.3% for this coin. XRP had another good week, by managing to increase its cap by additional $3.5B or 11.9% on a weekly basis. When it comes to excellent weekly performance, it should be mentioned ADA, which added more than $ 1B to its cap, which is an increase of 10.3%, and was followed by BNB, which added $1.2B and an increase in cap by 3.5%. Altcoins with good performance in a relative terms were NEO, with surge in cap of 15.3% w/w, Theta was up by more than 12%, same as OMG Network, Uniswap has increased its value by 13.7%, while Polkadot was up by more than 10%. It should be mentioned that only a few coins finished the week in red, like Bitcoin Cash, which was down by 3.55% w/w, Maker lost more than 9% of its value, while DOGE lost 0.7% in value.
During the previous week there has been modestly increased activity related to coins in circulation. Miota increased its circulating coins by 0.6%, followed by Filecoin, with an increase of 0.5%. Stellar`s coins were up by 0.3%, while Solana`s coins were higher by 0.2%. Tether should be mentioned, as the coin increased its value and circulating coins by 1.0% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side, few altcoins decreased the number of its circulating coins, where Polkadot`s total coins decreased by 1.1%, Polygon's drop in circulating coins was 0.7%.
Crypto futures market
Positive market sentiment is still holding with crypto investors, both on spot and futures markets. BTC futures for all maturities were traded higher by more than 2% on a weekly basis. Short term maturities were up 2.75%, with December 2023 ending the week at price of $35.305 on CBOE. Longer term maturities are still holding above the $38K price range, which is very positive for BTC, as investors are pretty confident at this moment regarding the potential for future price increase of the BTC from current levels. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $38.225 or 2.65% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at price $38.925, which supports the sentiment of further rise in the value of BTC.
ETH short term futures were traded more than 2% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 is ending the week at a price $1.859, which is 2.64% higher from the end of the previous week. Same as with BTC, investors are also expecting further increase in value of the ETH, with December 2024 futures ending the week at price of $1.937 or 0.99% higher, while those maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $1.964. Still, what is interesting to note for the price of ETH is that it is still not able to cross the $2K psychological level.
Crypto Market Cap - BULL MARKET ABOUT TO START!The resistance at $1.3T won't hold for long now.
Once broken, this market will pump hard until around $1.6T.
This level also coincides with BTC resistance at 36k.
This would mean BTC will reach 40k or more.
Unless sellers return here soon, bias remains bullish.
Price action is bullish and so is the momentum.
Get ready!
Like and follow for more TA!