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MARKETS week ahead: October 23 – 29Last week in the news Geopolitical risks and Fed`s mimicking to the markets are continuing to shape the sentiment of investors. The US 10Y Treasury yields reached 5% for the first time since 2007, US equity markets were traded lower, while Gold is traded near $2K. The crypto market also had a positive week, with Bitcoin headed back toward $30K. It was a week full of news and surprising developments on financial markets. Fed Chair Powell gave a speech to the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. He noted that the road to bringing inflation down to 2% will be “bumpy” and that currently nobody knows exact timing when this goal will be reached, but Fed officials will stay on the course of achieving their goals. He also did not provide indication that FOMC is necessarily pushing for higher interest rates from current levels. After his speech, the market changed sentiment, decreasing the probability of another rate hike during the course of this year. However, Powell once again noted that a fight with inflation will mean that economic growth and the labor market would have to slow down in the coming period. At the same time, he refused to comment on the potential for rate cuts at this moment. Bicoin topped $30K for one more time at Friday`s trading session, amid increased investor`s confidence that the first BTC ETF might be approved by SEC as of the end of October. These assumptions were fueled by a comment from Coinbase Chief legal officer Paul Grewal, in a comment to CNBC. His rationale was “I`m quite hopeful that these (ETF) applications will be granted, if only because they should be granted under the law”. Although analysts are not sure if this will be the proper reason for SEC to approve first BTC ETF, still, markets are increasing probability of approval of filings of few big names in the financial industry, as well as, that SEC did not appeal the ruling in the Grayscale`s case. JPMorgan also issued a report on this topic, expressing their positive opinion on the possibility that the BTC ETF will be approved. Their deadline is set for 21st January next year, as this is the last date when application of Ark21Shares should be approved or dismissed. The rationale that JPMorgan is stressing in this case is that SEC would rather approve several applications at once, instead of providing market advantage to any specific fund. After receiving a $42.5 million fine from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2021, backed by allegations that USDT is not fully backed by USD, Tether announced that the company will publicly disclose data on its reserves backing USDT, starting from 2024. In its latest report, the company was holding $3.3 billion in excess reserves. Crypto market cap News about potential for the approval of the first BTC exchange traded fund are emerging as many investors and market practitioners are heating the market with their optimism. Even Larry Fink, the CEO of the BlackRock commented first BTC rally toward $30K after the fake news about ETF approval as “example of the pent-up interest in crypto”. The crypto market is for some time set for approval or disapproval of the ETF and only pending is final resolution. For some time in the past, the crypto market was traded sideways, waiting for the final SECs resolution. In case that an ETF is approved, this is going to be a huge milestone for the crypto market, with expectation that significant funds currently sitting on money market funds will be transferred to the crypto market. Estimates differ, depending on an analyst, but one thing is for sure and that is that the positive outcome of ETF filings by several large names in the financial industry, will certainly bring a lot of funds back into the crypto market. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization increased by more than 7%, adding $75B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were increased to the level of $55B on a daily basis, compared to $ 41B traded during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 46%, where it has added total $350B to the market cap. Almost all coins gained during the previous week. Of course, BTC is the coin that will gain the most from the ETF approval, in which sense, the value of BTC increased the most during the week, adding $56B to its total market cap, which is a significant increase of more than 10% on a weekly basis. ETH also had a relatively good week, with an increase in market cap by $ 6B or more than 3% w/w. XRP was also in the group of significant gainers, with a surge in capitalization of $1.5B or 6%. During the previous week Solana had an excellent performance, where it added around $2.9B to its market capitalization, which is an increase of 31.4%. Following a surge in BTC value, Bitcoin Gold managed to increase its value by 13%, while Bitcoin Cash was up by 11.3%. Few other coins with relatively good performance during the week were LINK, which was up by 10%, while IOTA and Polygon increased their market value by more than 7% both. There have been significant developments with circulating coins also. It seems that the majority of stake coins are slowly getting back on the market. The highest weekly movement had IOTA, with a surge in circulating coins of 7.2% on a weekly basis. Uniswap`s circulating coins were increased by 1.9%, while Polkadot managed to increase its coins by 1.5%. It also seems that Tether is getting back in the crypto game, as coin managed to increase its coins by 0.7%, which has not been seen for several months now. Majority of other coins gained at least 0.1% of new coins in circulation. This trend shows that the crypto market is slowly waking up, after the last two months of quiet movements. Crypto futures market Strong shifts on the spot market made an impact on the crypto futures market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded higher during the week, for all maturities. BTC short term futures were traded higher by some 10%, while long term ones were traded above 7% higher from the end of the week before. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at level of $30.190 or for 10% higher, while those maturing in December next year were up by 7.6%, ending the week at level $31.525. This is positive for the BTC, as investors are expecting the price of BTC to hold above $30K after eight straight weeks traded below this level. ETH futures gained a bit less from BTC futures, but it was generally a positive week for ETH. Futures maturing in December this year gained the most from all other maturities, ending the week at level of $1.620 or 4.3% higher than the week before. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level $1.681 or 2.3% higher from the week before. It is interesting that there has not been enough market interest for these ETH maturities, so the price is still holding below $1.7K, for the second week in a row.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Crypto Market Can Be Finishing A Corrective ConsolidationCrypto market made nice and clean impulsive rally at the beginning of 2023, which indicates for a bigger recovery after a correction. Well, Crypto market is now in a corrective consolidation since April, which we see it either as a bullish triangle pattern or maybe even slightly deeper and more complex W-X-Y correction. After yesterday's volatility Crypto market firstly jumped higher on the news that SEC approved iShares spot ETF, but then immediately reversed down, when BlackRock confirmed that this is false and that their application is still under review. So, it looks like a short-term spike up only, which means that we should be aware of a new slow down within wave E of a triangle or maybe even for wave »c« of Y of deeper complex W-X-Y corrective decline. Once a correction fully unfolds, we will expect a continuation higher in the Crypto market, ideally at the end of 2023 or beginning of 2024. All the best!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ew-forecast
Crypto Total MC sending while MC excluding Alts lagging behindBTC spot ETF has been approved. This is why i have been saying to load up at these bear market levels. Not a time to fomo now, be patient. Its a NEWS pump. The risk of not loading at these Bear Market levels is too high. Once we dip start scooping, prepare for all scenarios, keep in mind a black swan can always still appear with the state of the world. Crypto Total market cap sending and hit a resistance on weekly, while the Market Caps excluding BTC is lagging behind still. This is due to the BTC dominance pump, breaking through its local high. Expect Alts to lag behind as predicted, this is a BTC ETF not an altcoin ETF. BUT money flows in BTC people take profit then they start buying alts, this is what has happened since inception. Be patient and keep scooping cheap alts. BTC Dominance sending, alts will suffer most likely if this rally continues. But then you scoop and ride em when BTC starts dropping.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Suneater69
MARKETS week ahead: October 16 – 22Last week in the news Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East impact some volatility on financial markets, as they represent concerning events for investors around the globe. The US equity markets finished the week in green supported by the US economic data. Treasuries have eased due to the same reason, while the crypto market continues with its side trading. Bitcoin ended the week above $26K, while Ether is still holding above $1.5K. The FOMC meeting Minutes were released during the previous week. Question whether interest rates should be further increased was sort of conflicting for FOMC members, but the unique opinion was that they should stay elevated until Fed officials are convinced that the inflation is clearly on its way to reach 2%. The FOMC members also noted the resiliency of the US economy, still, citing several risks, including the slowdown in growth and potential short-time inflation reversal. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held a meeting during the previous week in Morocco. Few conclusions from this meeting were related to the world economic outlook, which has been revised from 3.5% to 3% for this year and 2.9% for 2024. They are also expecting for global inflation to slow down to 5.8%, where central bankers around the world expressed readiness to end further increase of their reference interest rates. As the main challenges for global growth in the coming year, the IMF and the WB officials see higher policy rates, strong US dollar and geopolitical issues. The car company Ferrari announced last week that it will start accepting crypto currencies from its customers for luxury car payments. This service will initially be available for clients in the US, but the plan is to extend this service also to EU clients. The rationale for such a decision, Ferrari officials are noting that a significant number of their clients have invested into crypto currencies, and the company is willing to provide them an option to purchase their favorite cars through payments in crypto currencies. At the initial stage, Ferrari will accept bitcoin, ether and USDC, and will not charge any additional fees for payments in crypto currencies. Through the company Bitpay, coins will immediately be transferred into traditional currency, in which way, Ferrari will not carry any risk originating from coins volatility. The crypto market nervousness regarding the first BTC ETF is heating up. News regarding SEC moves around potential approval or disapproval of fillings for both BTC and ETH ETF funds is closely watched by the market, and impact significantly BTC`s price. During the previous week, BTC sharply reacted to news that the SEC will not react to the court's reversal of SEC`s decision by which SEC did not approve company Grayscale to convert its trust funds into an exchange traded fund, as reported by the Condesk. The deadline for SEC`s appeal was until the end of Friday. Crypto market cap The latest information provided by the Fed officials from September`s FOMC meeting seems finally fully priced by financial markets. At the same time, the released inflation rate for the US for September showed modest movement to the upside of 0.1% on a yearly basis, to the level of 3.7%. While the US equity market showed some positive sentiment during the previous week, and Treasuries relaxed yields, still, the crypto market remained on its old course of side trading. What the market is expecting for some time is the resolution of several fillings for the first spot BTC exchange traded fund, where even big players like BlackRock filed for. The time for SEC`s response was postponed till the end of October, which should occur within the next week or two. Until its final resolution, the crypto market might continue with side trading. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by $ 41B during the previous week, which is a total drop of 3.8%. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat compared to the week before, moving around $ 43B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 36%, where it has added total $275B to the market cap. Major coins on the market were the ones that made a negative impact of $ 41B drop in total market capitalization, although the majority of altcoins finished the week in red. Bitcoin made a significant drop of $21B or 3.85% of its value compared to the end of the previous week. ETH was following BTC on its negative path with a loss of $ 10B or 5.05% in value. XRP was another major coin which made a higher loss in value of almost $ 2B or 6.8% in value on a weekly basis. BNB made a lower loss of $0.89B or 2.7% of its value. Among altcoins with a higher loss in relative terms were Polygon, which dropped by 8.7%, Polkadot was down by almost 8%, Bitcoin Cash was down by 6.2% and ZCash dropped by 6.8%. As for coins in circulation, there have been changes with several coins which added around 0.1%, except for Filecoin, which added 0.6% of new coins in circulation, while Solana added 0.5% of new coins. Algorand and Polkadot increased their circulating coins by 0.2% both. Crypto futures market Crypto futures for both BTC and ETH were following developments on the spot market during the previous week, dragging prices of both long and short futures further to the downside. BTC short term futures ended the week around 4% lower from the week before, with December 2023 ending the week at level of $27.435 or 3.72% lower from the week before. Longer term futures were last traded around 3% lower. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded again a bit below $30K for the first time after two weeks holding above $30K. December 2024 ended the week at a price of $29.295 or 2.95% lower from the week before. ETH futures were also trading in red compared to the week before, but with some interesting developments. Namely, futures from October till December this year ended the week at the same price of $1.555. Never before had there been such developments on the ETH futures market, which points to investors' current insecurity regarding the future course of ETH`s price. At the same time, almost all maturities were traded between 5% to 6% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December next year ended the week below $1.7K level, at price $1.642 or 5.41% lower from the week before.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Crypto Total Market Cap Trend AnalysisExpecting a fall of around 7% towards 950 Billion level as per the broadening wedge pattern after which a massive 90% rally will happen towards 1.8 Trillion level. This 7% fall will sweep the liquidity to fuel the upside move and is highly likely to happen. I see downside in BTC chart as well to corelate with this scenario. Good to look for investment opportunities during this fall instead of panicking. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, do your own due diligence before taking any action. Peace!!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Swastik24
MARKETS week ahead: October 9 – 15Last week in the news The market star of the previous week were US Treasury bonds, which continued with drop in prices, reaching 16 year lows, in an aim to adjust to the new Fed narrative. Equities were trying to adjust to this new sentiment on bonds, but still finished the week in green territory. The crypto market continues to be side traded, while gold was adjusting to new US Dollar highs. This could be a short summary of the previous week on financial markets. The US equity markets reacted positively on posted jobs figures on Friday, although, not all analysts are of the same opinion regarding the reason for this increase. The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.8% in September, although the markets were expecting to see 3.7%. At the same time, non-farm payrolls were significantly above market estimates of 170K, reaching a figure of 336K new jobs in September. Regardless of continuously strong jobs data, wage increases slowed down a bit in September, providing some relaxation to market participants that the effect of the job market on inflation will not be significant. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.2% in September, standing at 4.2% on a yearly basis. On the other side are several analysts who are noting that Friday`s surge in equity markets is a result of its heavy oversold side during September, as well as, a modest easing in US Treasury yields. Fed`s Governor Michelle Bowman, noted her standing that interest rates should be increased further on next FOMC meeting. She repeated this on Connecticut Bankers Association during the previous week. She also commented on Friday`s job figures as “solid”. As per CME Group`s tracker, market participants are currently anticipating 43% probability that the Fed will increase rates before the end of this year. FundStart, a company specialized in analysis, posted a report which revealed that the venture capital funding for projects within the crypto industry dropped by 75% on a yearly basis in Q3 this year. This also represents a six consecutive quarterly drop within this area. Tokenized US Treasury bonds will be offered on the Coinbase exchange. This was announced by Backed Finance, a Switzerland based company, which specializes in asset tokenization. Since this product is issued under Switzerland`s tokenized securities law, it could be offered only to companies which follow the know-your-customer and anti-money laundering rules. The tokenization businesses are gaining in popularity, and could reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion in 2030, as noted by the Boston Consulting Group report. Crypto market cap The US Treasury bonds were the ones that collected market attention during the previous week. Their drop in prices intensified after the latest FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell introduced a new Fed`s narrative called “higher for longer”. The stronger adjustment to this new narrative was conducted during the previous week, where the 10Y US Treasury benchmark rate reached the highest level at 4.88%. While equities were also moving within a correction path, still, on Friday they managed to make a bit of an upside move, during the easing of Treasury yields uptrend. During this period, the crypto market remained short at a side of investors interest, ending the week relatively flat, with a modest increase of total crypto market capitalization of 1.3% on a weekly basis, adding total $ 14B to the market cap. Daily trading volumes are still relatively low and were moving around $ 41B during the previous week, a modest drop from $56B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 42%, where it has added total $316B to the market cap. Bitcoin was the one that drove a market cap up $ 14B during the previous week. BTC added a total of $18.4B to its cap, or around 3.5%. Other coins were traded in a mixed manner. Ether finished the week in red, losing 2.5% on a weekly basis, or around $5B. Coins with solid performance during the week were Solana, which increased its market cap by 8.6%, Polygon also managed to increase its value by 6.6%, while Monero was up by 4.4% on a weekly basis. Bitcoin Gold also gained during the week, adding a little bit less than 4% to its market cap. Coins which finished the week in red were LINK, with a drop in value of 7.7%, DASH was down by 6.2%, Theta lost 4.6%, while Ethereum Classic decreased its value by 5.9%. There have also been some movements within circulating coins. Algorand gained the most coins in circulation during the previous week, increasing it by 1%, and was followed by Filecoin, with an increase of 0.7%, and Solana by 0.3%. At the same time, Polkadot decreased its circulating coins by 0.2%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was following developments on the spot market during the previous week. BTC short term futures were last traded higher around 4%, while longer term ones were traded relatively flat. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $28.495 or 4.42% higher from previous week`s close. There has not been much change with prices of futures maturing in December next week, as they were closed at $30.185 or 0.12% higher on a weekly basis. It is positive for BTC that it managed to hold a price above $30K for the year ahead. Opposite to BTC, ETH` short term futures were traded between 1.4% and 3.3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $1.634 or 3.37% lower on a weekly basis. Those futures maturing in December next year were down by 3.07% and were last traded at price $1.736. Positive for ETH is that those futures are still managing to hold prices above $1.7K for the four weeks.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
Forward Test of the Universal Trend Algorithm on TOTALThis chart shows the Universal Trend Algorithm and the live signals we have received since forward testing. This chart shows the forward-tested results on the index of the crypto market. The Universal Trend Algorithm is a swing trading algorithm designed to capture medium-term trends for investment portfolios and swing traders, signals can last from weeks to months. Hence the backtesting parameters are 100% of the equity as position size, as this system is more of an investment strategy, not a scalping strategy. Backtesting started in 2020
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
MARKETS week ahead: October 2 – 8Last week in the news “Higher for longer” continued to shape investors sentiment, ending September in losses. During the last trading week of the month, equity markets both in the EU and the US continued with correction, while US Treasury yields continued to be elevated, reaching higher levels from the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 finished the month some 4.7% lower. The crypto market gained some 2.4% on a weekly basis, but still with fragile strength to sustain higher grounds. Although the general sentiment on financial markets is pretty negative during the last period, the investors are continuing to closely monitor inflation developments, anticipating the next Fed`s move. During the previous week, the Fed`s favorite inflation indicator was published, posting the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 0.1% in August, lower from market expectation of 0.2%. At the same time, core PCE on a yearly basis was down to 3.9% in August from 4.3% posted for July. This was a small positive sign for market participants that inflation is indeed slowing down and that measures imposed by the Fed in the previous period are giving the results. Based on the latest report, markets are currently giving only 15% probability for a potential rate increase at November`s FOMC meeting. In line with the US inflation gauges, inflation in the Euro Area also seems to slow down. As per published data, the inflation in the EU fell to the level of 4.3% on a yearly basis in September, although the markets were expecting to see the figure of 4.5%. Although core inflation reached 4.5% y/y, it was still a significant drop from 5.3% posted for August. August inflation figures are at its lowest levels since October 2021. Based on the latest ECB projections it could be expected for inflation to fall down to 3.2% next year, and finally reach targeted 2% in 2025. The ECB is also following Fed`s rhetoric of “higher for longer” interest rates. JPMorgan Chase decided to block their crypto-related operations in the U.K. over concerns on the “rise in frauds” related to the crypto assets. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong criticized such action of JPMorgan and other banks which took the same course in the UK when it comes to their crypto related businesses, strongly disagreeing with a decision to de-platform the whole crypto industry. Instead, he is noting that regulators should be the ones to make a decision on what is allowed and what is not on the market, and not banks. Ripple announced that the company is discontinuing its initial intention to purchase a chartered trust company Fortress Trust, based in Nevada. As announced at the company, Ripple will continue to be an investor in this company. Although there has not been officially noted the reason for such a decision, the market speculates that it might be due to the recent theft occurred at Fortress Trust, totalling around $15 million, due to “unnamed third-party vendor, that had fallen victim to a phishing attack”, as Coindesk reported. Crypto market cap Markets are continuing to digest the “higher for longer” rhetoric from FED during its September`s monetary meeting. Investors continue to be focused on inflation figures in a hope that the Fed will skip further rate hikes for this year. As per current CME questionnaire, market has lowered expectations for another rate hike at November's FOMC meeting, but still, surprises by Fed officials are possible, especially after Fed Chair Powell`s announcement that there will be yet another rate hike till the end of this year. After that, the US interest rates will continue to be elevated through the course of the next year. But even with these elevated interest rates, the Fed is not expecting to reach its 2% inflation target until year 2025. It seems that monetary authorities are ready to accept generally changed global economic circumstances where increased inflation becomes a part of the economic reality. Although US equities and Treasuries lost in value during the previous week, the crypto market gained from investors' slowly emerging appetite for riskier assets in anticipation of higher returns for this year. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 2.3% during the week, adding total $24B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to $56B on a daily basis, from FWB:33B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year reached a level of 40%, where it has added a total $302B to the market cap. It was a generally positive week for crypto coins, where the majority of them gained in value. BTC and ETH were major coins with highest participation in total crypto market cap increase during the previous week. BTC gained $8.8B on a weekly basis or 1.70%. The winner of the week was ETH, with a gain of $10.8B or 5.65% increase within a single week. BNB could also be mentioned as a significant gainer in nominal terms, as this coin managed to add $0.85B to its total value, which represents a 2.6% increase for this coin. There have been several coins with solid gains in relative terms, like Maker with a surge in value of 18.4%, LINK was up by 15.8%, Bitcoin Cash was up by 13.3%, OMG Network gained 12.7% w/w. There have been only a few losers during the week, with relatively smaller drop in price like NEO, with a drop in value of almost 2%, Stellar was down by 1% while Polkadot lost 1.75% on a weekly basis. There has been modest movements in circulating coins for several currencies, where Polkadot lost 3.8% of its coins in circulation while Filecoin added 0.4% new coins. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was holding a positive sentiment during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded at higher grounds from the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded some 1.5% higher from the week before, and in line with developments on the spot market. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $27.290 or 0.7% higher, while December 2024 managed to return to the levels above $30K as of the end of the previous week. ETH short term futures were traded around 4.6% higher on a weekly basis, but still lower from the spot market. December this year ended the week at a price $1.691 or 4.9% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, longer term futures prices were increased by more than 4%, with December 2024 ending the week at price $1.791. Regardless of the developments on the spot market, investors are still holding precaution when ETH future prices are in question.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL - Bull run starts October?To get more clues on what BTC is doing, I analyzed the TOTAL (Total Crypto Market Cap). I use Elliott, trendlines, and fibonacci. I keep getting the same results on many analysis, of the bull run starting in October. I label my waves 1 A W and 2 B and Y. Why is that? There is a real possibility, that crypto does a huge pump for months, then another bear market hits. So I keep these corrective labels to remind me. This idea lines up with the fact that the US Treasury yield curves inverted 11 months ago. If you are not aware, in past history, recessions hit anywhere from immediate to 17 months after a yield curve inversion.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by gz1968
9