TOTAL UpdateTOTAL is dump lower than i expected.
But still, i ain't believe that we're gonna trading below 1T, but if it's happen, i'll call it a fire sale.
Trade safely.
TOTAL trade ideas
Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL1) – A Bigger PictureConfluence resides within the Dec 15–Dec 24 date range and sits at 542B.
Markets week ahead: August 28 - September 3Last week in the news
Major weekly event, a Fed Chair speech at the Jackson Hole on Friday left the markets relatively volatile, as well as the US Treasury yields. At the same time the crypto market was traded in a flat mode. Bitcoin is ending the week around $26K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.6K.
Major event during the previous week was the Jackson Hall symposium, and speech of Fed Chair Powell as of the end of the conference. The markets were waiting for his speech with high interest, considering many opposite standing points of both analysts and economists in the US whether the country will be able to avoid a recession in the coming period and if the Fed will start to cut interest rates somewhere at the beginning of the year ahead. Fed Chair Powell stressed that the ultimate goal of Fed's policy is bringing inflation down to 2% target and that the Fed might increase interest rates to the higher levels if inflation remains persistent. The policy will remain restrictive “until inflation sustainably slowing”. Since some progress has been made, the Fed will proceed carefully but flexibly from this moment.
Negative news for Binance continues as Mastercard decided to end its partnership with this company, and will no longer offer cards in Latin America and the Middle East for Binance-brand. Binance's card issuer in Europe was Visa, however, this company also ended the business relationship with Binance during July. As per publicly available information, the rationale for such decisions is currently ongoing regulatory scrutiny of Binance in both the EU and the US. The company noted that only a small portion of its users will be affected by this decision, as customers are usually using Binance Pay, a “ borderless and secure cryptocurrency payment technology designed by Binance''.
The U.S. Treasury department finally proposed amendments to the tax law, by which, crypto brokers will be differentiated from the traditional brokerage companies. The new amendments also address the question regarding user’s personal data, which these companies should gather. Namely, based on the proposal, crypto companies will declare their tax obligation on a new form – called 1099-DA. Miners are excluded from this new form. Amendments are currently open for a public view and discussion, while its final adoption could be expected by the end of this year.
The Monetary Authority of Hong Kong will further explore possibilities of the bond market tokenization. This decision comes after the Government issued $100 million of tokenized green bonds in February this year. Their aim is to dig further into potential for increasing efficiency, liquidity and transparency of the bond market.
Crypto market cap
After the final break to the downside two weeks ago, the crypto market remained relatively quiet, in anticipation of the Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hall conference. Generally, markets did not hear anything new from his speech; however, it brought some modest optimism to the equity markets. The bottom line is that there is still a way to go when it comes to inflation, and the Fed might increase interest rates even higher if inflation remains persistent. The crypto market remained relatively flat during the week. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest $1B, actually, without much change from the week before. Daily trading volumes modestly increased to the level of SGX:43B on a daily basis, from $35B the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at level of 36%, where it has added total $274B to the market cap.
Crypto coins were traded relatively flat during the week, with modest movements in prices of coins. There were almost equal numbers of coins that finished the week on a positive and negative side. BTC managed to gain $2.5B in its market cap, which is an increase of 0.5% on a weekly basis. ETH was shiny down by $1.1B or 0.5%. XRP was one of the major winning coins during the week, with an increase in market cap of $1B or 4%. Few other coins with relatively solid performance on a weekly basis were Tron, with a gain of 4.85%, Miota was up by 2.5% and Litecoin with a modest surge of 2.1%. Several coins finished the week in red, like Filecoin, which was down by 7.7%, Uniswap lost 6.7% in its market cap and Solana decreased its value by 6.5%. As for coins in circulation, there also has not been too much change. Tron was the one coin whose coins in circulation were down by 0.1%, while Polkadot increased the number of its coins in circulation by 0.2%.
Crypto futures market
Although the crypto spot market remained relatively flat during the week, the crypto futures market went through some changes in investors long term perception for both BTC and ETH futures. Analysts from JPMorgan were commenting on current open interest on the crypto derivative markets and noted that current unwind of long positions can be perceived as they are in the end phase. “As a result we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term”, as noted by a JPMorgan analyst. If that is the case, then traders might hope that September will be a better month for cryptos, than it was August.
BTC short term futures ended the week down around 1% on average, but the longer term ones suffered a huge drop of around 7% on a weekly basis. During the first part of August and major downturn, BTC long term futures were holding pretty steady, however, this is the first week when December 2024 dropped below $30K levels, ending the week at price of $29.145. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $26.730, or 0.63% lower from the week before.
With ETH futures the situation is a bit different, considering that almost all maturities dropped by more than 5% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December 2024 were last traded at price $1.793 or 5.13% lower from the week before, while those maturing in December this year were also down by 5.30% ending the week at price $1.684.
Total Crypto Market Cap about to blow
-Here is a snapshot of above published Monthly chart (in case the thumbnail is yet again wildly distorted).
The decade long Wave 2 correction in Bitcoin is over. Unsuprisingly, the Elliot Wave count on the Total Crypto Market Cap is actually very similar (A Running Triple-Three). Just like on Bitcoin, Time plays a huge part in informing the above count.
Th weekly chart below provides much more detail, showing the completion of Wave Z (on a subwave level):
Similar to Bitcoin, there is easily discernable, Terminally 'messy' price action that is subsequently (post-constructively) confirmed by a strong reaction fully retracing the entire terminal impulse within ~ 50-60% of the time it took to form (60% is a better metric (says me (the greatest ever)). This is an easy count, as determined directly (there is no other count that even comes close).
Also similar to Bitcoin, the Terminal Impulse soldifies the Structure of larger Wave C as an Impulse (a :5). For those who have been following, this is an essential point to understand: It eliminates the possibility that Wave A of Z 'began late' (and no, it can not be Wave A of A as that would necessarily imply a Zig Zag correction is in progress that would have to be followed by yet another relatively long (in price and time) impulsive wave C of A of Z to new lows. In no way shape or form would this work Time-wise.)
More generally (EW aside), we just put in a right shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders bottom pattern.
This is the beginning of the beginning, 9 months of quiet accumulation (while the general public completely forgot about Bitcoin) is over. Now comes the very early stages of the biggest rally Bitcoin has ever had. When we break the local high ~31k, short-term momentum traders will step in, looking to foolishly take profits in the 50-65k range. The sentiment of battered bears on social media will be feelings of relief that 'the next move is up' as opposed to a realization of what is brewing on the horizon. In fear of reprisal over wildly optimistic price
predictions of yesteryear, all anticipation and excitement will be cautiously tamed. Conditioned by 'fin twit' oriented analysis for the last few years, the vast majority of market participants will (in the short term) continue to see Bitcoin/'Crypto' alongside the wider markets, appropriately dazed into the hypnosis of strong correlation...until 'it' happens.
The 'it' (shattering of this correlation) will come above ATH's. The first pull back (really consolidation) after we test/break the ATH will mark the first stage of 'ramping' up, with every new higher low becoming steeper and steeper.
Here we go.
P.S. I did not specify another market (in terms of correlation) intentionally. Bitcoin, and the wider cryptocurrency market, should not be strongly (positively) correlated to *any other market. It is entirely an artefact of 'Market Makers' in traditional markets and those aligned with their interests. There is no future where this level of correlation is maintained and Bitcoin succeeds. Put differently: It is enabled via the siphoning off of capital that would have otherwise come into Bitcoin (into Bitcoin derivatives), which was basically the entire bull run to $65k.
Crypto Alert: Head and Shoulder Pattern Signals 25-30% DropWatch out for a possible 25-30% dip in the crypto market . Experts are pointing to a head and shoulder pattern, often a sign of upcoming drops. This lines up with the BTC target predicted yesterday, raising worries among traders and investors. Stay tuned as the market's next moves unfold.
Total Crypto Weekly Death Cross LoomingFor the total cryptocurrency market cap, a death cross between the 21-week and 200-week moving averages on a weekly timeframe suggests that the market might be entering a period of extended bearish sentiment. Traders and investors might interpret this as a warning sign that the overall trend is weakening and that further declines could be expected.
However, it's essential to remember that technical analysis is not foolproof and should be considered alongside other fundamental and contextual factors. Markets can be influenced by a variety of variables, including news events, regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and more. As with any trading decision, it's a good practice to combine technical analysis with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies.
Crypto Market CapThe Total Market Cap , BTC and Altcoin Market appear to be breaking out of crucial long-term levels. Certain market conditions have to be met for either a bull-run trigger or bear-cycle continuation, based on the degree of economic stability and certainty in it. I'm going to discuss critical technical levels and their implications, as well as my fundamental views for the year.
Bad Outlook for Q3/Q4 of 2023:
Equity market health and controllable inflation would aid crypto development in the long run. So far the battle against inflation and stock market health have been promising. However, by considering the following 3 factors the outlook may rapidly change:
Fading AI hype
The end of the U.S. presidential election stock rally cycle, which occurs in the year after midterm elections (last midterms were in Nov 2022)
In Q3 of 2023 (particularly August and September) there is historically more consumption due to the beginning of a new academic year, implying further inflationary pressures and more gov intervention
1) Consumer spending accounting for >2/3 of GDP and 2) currently being discouraged through prolonged high interest rates - amplify my positive GDP growth expectations = more inflationary pressures.
Technical Levels with fundamental evaluation:
I believe long-term levels are crucial for trend analysis. We're currently testing multiple levels simultaneously. Due to my pessimistic views for the upcoming months I am bearish in the short-run and bullish in the long-run. From current price level I'd expect +- 30% drop (below 20k), shown in figure 1. If we do go to the upside, we could see a 60% short-term price gain, presented in figure 2. Either way great volatility is to be witnessed.
Figure 1
Figure 2
I hope you took away some important points. Trade safe :)
Feel free to comment your opinion
Crypto Market Under Siege I believe we're about to witness a huge crash. All the charts are showing bearish chart patterns. The crypto markets are being hit from all angles relentlessly. I believe we will see more FUD as SEC continues to go after crypto, more institutional dumping, continued interest rate hikes, more legislation to ban crypto, etc., etc. Even Max Keiser just flipped bearish. I don't think any of this will stop until a crypto ETF.
Not financial advise. Entertainment purposes only!
USD Surge and Risk-Off Moves: Factors Behind Cryptocurrency DownCryptocurrencies have seen some aggressive turndown lately, and there are a few reasons for a drop.
1.SpaceX Selling Bitcoins: Firstly, there was news last week that SpaceX, a company known for space exploration, had sold some of their Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin is a major cryptocurrency, any large sale by a well-known names, creates uncertainty in the market a especially when news is in connection with Elon Musk.
2. Risk-Off Moves and Strong USD: “Risk-off” moves refer to investors becoming more cautious and moving their investments away from riskier assets like stocks, and even cryptos and moving them into cash. So USD is recovering making cryptos weak which is not a surprise as US yields are still on the rise.
3. Ripple Case and SEC Appeal: The news about the Ripple case also contributed to the drop. The judge has decided to allow the SEC to appeal the case means there is still some uncertainty about how cryptocurrencies like XRP will be regulated. Ripple has seen some nice drop so far and erased all of the gains that were made in July after the announcement of a Ripple win over SEC. From a longer-term perspective, I think Ripple is moving into the attractive zone for a bounce, now after some “weak hands” are gone following an over-crowded and over-optimistic reaction back in July.
All of these factors above combined create of instability in the cryptocurrency market, causing prices to decrease but when looking at the cryptocurrency total market cap, there can be some interesting support still for this year as we see wave C in progress; final leg of a contra-trend movement.
MARKETS week ahead: August 21 – 27Last week in the news
China is evidently slowing down, while Fed's meeting minutes revealed the possibility for interest rates to move even higher from currently expected levels. Negative sentiment continues to prevail on financial markets. Both EU and US equities continued their negative trend for the third week in a row, while US Treasuries continue to rise. Bitcoin had the worst week since May this year, followed by other crypto coins. Markets are clearly revisiting their optimism from the beginning of this year.
China's housing market is passing through difficult times. During the previous week markets were hit by a series of negative news related to some Chinese big players within this industry. One of the largest real estate companies, Country Garden, defaulted on its bond payments on Monday. On the other side, by far the largest real estate company in China, Evergrande, registered in the US, filed for protection under the bankruptcy law in the US. The company was previously in trouble, trying to save the business through restructuring, but it failed to find supporting funds for that mission. Further destiny of the company is currently unknown.
Another important event which made an impact on market sentiment was a release of FOMC meeting minutes from its meeting held in July. One of the concerns expressed at this meeting was the possibility that more rate hikes will be necessary in the future period in order to fight inflation. Several FOMC members were concerned that a tight job market could support further increase in inflation, which would require more rate hikes. Markets were holding to previous Fed Chair Powell's statement over possible two rate hikes till the end of this year. Since the Fed increased rates in July, markets were expecting another one in September through December. However, minutes revealed something on which markets were not prepared, and that is the possibility for further rate hikes, which made them reassess their economic growth prospectus for the next year. Minutes mentioned another important topic, which is related to FOMC members' concern over the issues in commercial real estate and problems which they can cause to some banks and financial institutions. The market reaction was that both the equities and crypto market lost in value during the week, while Treasury yields surged.
Coinbase announced that the company gained the regulatory approval from National Futures Association to offer crypto future products to US customers. The company also noted that it filed an application for this product in 2021. This approval refers to only federally regulated futures. News was perceived positively by the markets, as shares of Coinbase gained 5% after the announcement.
Although CBDC`s are still not officially launched, many companies are preparing for this moment, and trying to create full ecosystems around CBDC`s. One of the world’s largest payment and cards companies, Mastercard, organized a forum related to this topic, including some of the well-known names from the crypto industry, including Ripple, Fireblocks and Consensys. At this moment, their program partnership includes only discussions on innovation drives and efficiencies, however, it could be easily expanded in the future.
Crypto market cap
Final break to the downside occurred on the crypto market during the previous week. There are two major reasons which supported negative market sentiment. On the one side are published FOMC meeting minutes which revealed concerns of some FOMC members that more rate hikes will be necessary in the coming months / year in order to cope with inflation. There is also expressed concern over issues in commercial real estate which can bring potential negative consequences to some banks and financial institutions. At the same time, China's real estate market exposed some huge concerns, when big real estate company Country Garden defaulted on part of its bond payments, while the biggest player in this field, company Evergrande, filed for protection under the US bankruptcy law. Economists called such developments “a perfect storm” for financial markets. Not only that crypto market lost a significant portion of its value within a week, but was also followed by US equity markets.
Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 9%, losing a total $107B. Daily trading volumes almost doubled during the week, trading around $65B on a daily basis, from $35B during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 36%, where it has added total $273B to the market cap.
All coins lost during the previous week, however, drop in value of $107B on a weekly basis was driven by major coins, which participated with 89% in this drop. BTC lost FWB:68B or around 12% on a weekly basis, and was followed by ETH, with a drop of $23B or more than 10%. XRP was another coin with a significant drop in value of $6.6B or less than 20%. BNB was down by almost $4B or 10.6%. DOGE decreased its value by 17% or $1.8B in nominal amounts. Both ADA and SOL dropped around $1B losing 9.8% and 11.5% in value respectively. Majority of all other altcoins lost between 10% and 20% in value. As for coins in circulation, Tether managed to lose 0.7% circulating coins in a single week, which is not recently seen on the market. At the same time, Solana increased its circulating coins by 0.4%.
Crypto futures market
Negative news and investor’s sentiment left its mark also on the crypto futures market. As per Coinglass data, around $1B loss in liquidations of long positions were wiped out from this market. It was one of the worst sell-offs of the year. Short term BTC futures ended the week around 11% lower from the week before, while ETH futures dropped by more than 10%. On a positive side is that longer term futures suffered a lower drop in prices.
BTC long term futures were down by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year ended the Friday`s trading session at level of $26.900, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at price $31.275. On a positive side is that December next year is still holding above $30K level.
ETH long term futures dropped more than 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at price $1.778. Futures maturing in December 2024 dropped below $2K level where they were managing to hold for a few weeks. Last price for those futures was $1.890.
Are you ready for BTC around 1$ ?As the development of Web3 unfolds, there are several reasons why Bitcoin's value could potentially decline significantly, even reaching as low as $1
Regulatory Uncertainty: If Web3 becomes subject to heightened regulatory intervention, uncertainty about the future of cryptocurrencies and their usage might arise. This could erode investor trust and negatively impact Bitcoin's value.
Competition from Other Cryptocurrencies: The development of decentralized ecosystems based on different cryptocurrencies within the realm of Web3 could divert attention and capital away from Bitcoin. If new projects offer distinct benefits and innovations, it might reduce the demand for Bitcoin.
Shift in Investor Priorities: With the emergence of new opportunities within Web3, investors might shift their focus to various aspects of the cryptocurrency landscape. This temporary loss of interest in Bitcoin could affect its price.
Technological Issues and Vulnerabilities: Innovations and technological changes associated with Web3 might introduce new vulnerabilities or technical challenges. If these issues were to impact Bitcoin or its infrastructure, it could undermine trust and value.
Altered Perception and Use of Cryptocurrencies: Web3 has the potential to reshape the perception and utilization of cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin becomes less prominent compared to novel technologies and applications within Web3, its value could be at the risk
I'm curious to hear your reactions and comments on these perspectives.
1 Trillion Market Cap - SupportFlash crash of 18 August 2023 was one of the fastest seen in recents flash crashes with a low touched in just 4 minutes (4 - 1 minute candles).
Impressive than the low of such well organized (if not manipulated) flash crash was just the psychological level of 1 trillion market cap. Even liquid exchanges and Perp contracts saw many arbitrage opportunities with over 500$ differenfe for some minute between exchanges and also futures arbitrages for over 1000$ per BTC. Well done.
What do you think so about the 1 trillion market cap support? We will be a le to find a base and support for a final high around 34000$ for BTC? Or this is just an alarm and soon a breakout of 1 trillion market cap will open the road for a bear market with target lows below 2022 low?
Thanks for reading.
Total Crypto Cap Idea For The Rest of the MonthUsing CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL as a guide for the rest of the market, this is what I'm keeping in mind over the next 2 weeks.
On the weekly timeframe we are currently Under the 200 MA which is right around 1.08T
It's highly Likely we close under that on Sunday.
Next week we will look to find support in the range of 1.024T and ~1T.
To the upside I have set an alert at 1.038T
I don't expect too much price action over the weekend.
But in the coming days watch for the death cross(21 and 200) and potential bearish retest on the Daily timeframe.
Waiting game now.
Keeping in mind Super Moon (Bullish) at the end of this month may signal some bullish price action. If that is the case price should bottom over over the next week or so.
Crypto Total Market Cap - Watch 400B MCLook at the weekly timeframe and your indicators to find future divergences that could set up for entries. Bulls are going to get destroyed in the next 12 months.
TOTAL & BTC: Guide to Trend Line AnalysisHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
One of the most important parts of trading is following the macro phase and planning your trades. The only way to do this, is to pre-identify the macro market cycle that's currently playing out, as well as determine key zones of support and resistance. You do this by drawing up trend lines on the chart, from a macro perspective.
Here's a comprehensive Guide to Elliot Wave Theory, done on ETH :
To summarize if you're short on time, Elliot wave identifies upward and downward phases during an overall bullish or bearish cycle. Wave 1-2 can often correct a near 50% from starting point of wave 0-1. This means the price can drop -50%, and you would still be in a bullish cycle .
Now that we've discussed Elliot waves, we can also take a quick look at Wyckoff Method for BTC, which I did over here:
In other words, don't be scared of corrections! Wait and plan your trade. There's no need to force a trade. If you have identified your support and resistance zones with diagonal and horizontal trend lines, you can wait for the price to reach your target and execute a brilliant trade with a great risk-reward setup.
Do not rush to buy BitcoinThe chart is telling. According to the price action pattern, the result of the divergence is clear. If sentiment turns negative, I even think a break of the green support line is possible.
Cryptocurrenices making deeper pullback after FOMC minutesThe USD edged slightly higher, and stocks hit new lows for the week yesterday after the release of FOMC minutes. These minutes revealed that officials expressed concerns about the pace of inflation and noted the possibility of additional rate hikes unless future data suggests otherwise. So cryptos are down as USD seem much more attractive with higher yields/lower treasuries. Crypto total market cap is coming lower, but can be in C wave of a higher degree pullback, but it has room for slightly more weakness till support is reached. Ideally near 1.05/1.06T. So from an Elliott wave perspective, the whole pattern still looks good for bulls, but more time and patience is needed here, during summer pullbacks.
Golden Pocket Rejection We dropped down to a swing failure pattern May 12th. (a long wick down). We then sprang back up on the 15th to create a small range for the month of May. The low and high of that range used to pull the fib and find a golden pocket at 1.15 trillion . We have left that range long ago but since rejected from it twice. I wonder if we will retrace to the POC below and continue ranging? My gut says we go down but that doesn't mean anything really.
Now here's the thing. If you zoom out 100% and draw a fib from the lowest low to the highest high you will see the golden pocket is.........1.15 trillion. I cant make this stuff up.
Total crypto MC vs Gold ??You might call it optimistic but for me it’s obvious, total crypto MC will go higher than btc in percentage due to so many good projects and bitcoin getting old ( like it did last cycle )
From the bottom to new highs it usually takes 700 to 800 days for and bitcoin bull cycle , with my math somewhere between end of 2024 to march 2025 we will see the top .
First target for me will be gold market cap where people waiting for bitcoin mc to get golds which im not sure that happens so ill wait to see if that’s possible at the time .
A bit soon to get a decision but probably i get mine when price was at the date i appointed.
IMPORTANT LEVEL FOR CRYPTO MARKET CAP!CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 1 (2D)
Decision time for the whole of the #Crypto Market.
We have formed an Ascending Triangle currently up against heavy resistance between ~ $1.13T & $1.18T.
Break up, obviously good things to follow.
Lose the trend line and we target the red circle.
MIL:BTC EURONEXT:ALTS
