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Cryptocurrenices making deeper pullback after FOMC minutesThe USD edged slightly higher, and stocks hit new lows for the week yesterday after the release of FOMC minutes. These minutes revealed that officials expressed concerns about the pace of inflation and noted the possibility of additional rate hikes unless future data suggests otherwise. So cryptos are down as USD seem much more attractive with higher yields/lower treasuries. Crypto total market cap is coming lower, but can be in C wave of a higher degree pullback, but it has room for slightly more weakness till support is reached. Ideally near 1.05/1.06T. So from an Elliott wave perspective, the whole pattern still looks good for bulls, but more time and patience is needed here, during summer pullbacks.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ew-forecast
Golden Pocket Rejection We dropped down to a swing failure pattern May 12th. (a long wick down). We then sprang back up on the 15th to create a small range for the month of May. The low and high of that range used to pull the fib and find a golden pocket at 1.15 trillion . We have left that range long ago but since rejected from it twice. I wonder if we will retrace to the POC below and continue ranging? My gut says we go down but that doesn't mean anything really. Now here's the thing. If you zoom out 100% and draw a fib from the lowest low to the highest high you will see the golden pocket is.........1.15 trillion. I cant make this stuff up.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Altisona
Total crypto MC vs Gold ??You might call it optimistic but for me it’s obvious, total crypto MC will go higher than btc in percentage due to so many good projects and bitcoin getting old ( like it did last cycle ) From the bottom to new highs it usually takes 700 to 800 days for and bitcoin bull cycle , with my math somewhere between end of 2024 to march 2025 we will see the top . First target for me will be gold market cap where people waiting for bitcoin mc to get golds which im not sure that happens so ill wait to see if that’s possible at the time . A bit soon to get a decision but probably i get mine when price was at the date i appointed.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by mastershark
1
MARKETS week ahead: August 14 – 20Last week in the news The stock markets continued with their modest correction for a second week in a row. US banks ended the week in negative territory after Moody's downgraded ten banks and put some big US names on watch for a downgrade in the coming period. At the same time US Treasurys modestly increased during the week, after published inflation data in line with expectations. Crypto market gained on Moody's downgrade of US banks. Bitcoin is ending another week below $30K, while Ether found strong support above $1.8K level. The US Consumer Price Index published for July increased 3.2% y/y, less than market expectations, rising 0.2% for the month. Core CPI also rose 0.2%, running at 4.7% on a yearly basis. Figures are showing that the inflation is slowing down in the US, but it is still running above Fed's target of 2%. Many analysts are of the opinion that this trend would make the Fed probably to hold its next rate increase and postpone it till the end of this year. On the other side investors are looking for a moment of Fed`s pivot, which would mean that the Fed would start to decrease interest rates. Still, Fed Chair Powell noted that it should be expected for rates to stay elevated for a longer period of time even if inflation slows down further. Two weeks ago credit rating agency Fitch downgraded US government long-term currency issuer default rating to AA+, while during the previous week another credit rating agency Moody's downgraded ten US banks. In addition, Moody's put several banks to watch for the downgrade, including some big names like Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust. As a rationale for such a decision, Moody`s is noting asset-liability practices in these banks, with high exposures to the interest rate risks, coming from depression of Treasury holdings due to increased interest rates which might deteriorate banks value and earnings potential. This news supported Bitcoin trading, while negatively affecting equity markets. Tesla`s Chief Financial Officer, Zach Kirkhorn, announced to step down from his position in the company, after spending the last four years in this position and a total 13 years in Tesla. There has not been announced reason for such a decision. Markets reacted in a negative manner, pushing TSLA shares 3% lower. Nvidia passed the $1 trillion valuation, with the latest surge in stock price, putting this company in line with other big 4 names – Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet. This came as a result of making the best graphic processors for OpenAI and ChatGPT. Although investors see high earnings potential with this company, still, there are analysts who are arguing that the company is highly overpriced at this moment. Their opinion is that the general AI market is highly overvalued and its potential to drive future gains. Some analysts are even making a parallel between the 1999 dot-com bubble and current frenzy about AI. PayPal launched its stablecoin PayPal USD (PYUSD) aiming to keep pace with increasing interest for payments in crypto currencies. Analysts see it as a positive move from PayPal as it will be able to adjust easily for forthcoming central bank digital currencies, which will be available in the near future. Crypto market cap Markets continue to move flat, digesting both positive and negative news. Credit rating agencies in the US are continuing with downgrades, after Fitch downgraded US Government long term debt by one notch, Moody's downgraded ten US banks with more of them on the watchlist for the same move in the coming period. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, holding at the level of 3.2% in July. Although this is positive news, still, analysts are questioning whether this slowdown in inflation would impact Fed's decision to hold with further increases of interest rates. A fear of recession vanished on the market, with increasing voices over so-called soft-landing of the economy. With a strong jobs market, strong earnings and higher than expected Q2 GDP assumptions on soft-landing are well supported. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, with a modest increase of FWB:14B or less than 1% on a weekly basis. This is the third week when daily trading volumes have significantly decreased. Previous week`s range was around $35B on a daily basis, which is a further decrease from FWB:46B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 50%, where it has added total $380B to the market cap. The crypto market entered into side trade during the previous week. Significantly decreased daily trading volumes are not able to push the price to either side. Still, the majority of coins finished the previous week on a shy green side, with few of them with good weekly performance. Bitcoin added $5.5B to its market cap during the week, increasing its value by less than 1%. Same performance had ETH with an increase in cap of $2B. In a relative term, Solana continued with gains, adding more than 10% during the previous week. Algorand also had solid performance with an increase in value of 6.4% w/w. LINK gained 4%, while DASH managed to increase its cap by 5.8%. Few coins were on a losing side, like Bitcoin Gold, which decreased its value by 3.5%, Ethereum Classic was down by 1.1%, while Maker and Polkadot were both down by 2.4% w/w. There has not been significant changes in coins in circulation, where Filecoin was the highest gainer with 0.6% increase in its circulating coins. Crypto futures market The crypto futures remained relatively flat during the previous week, in line with developments on the spot market. BTC short term futures were up by some 0.5% on average, while long term ones were traded higher by modest 0.3% w/w. BTC futures maturing in December this year are still holding above $30K, and finished the week at level of $30.425, while those maturing in December next year were traded modestly higher with last trade on Friday closed at price $33.065. ETH futures were also in a flat mode. Short term ones were traded down by some 0.4% on average, while long term ones were traded in green. December 2023 is finishing the week at level of $1.894, 0.37% lower from the week before, while December 2024 was traded 0.2% higher and finished the week at price of $2.013. It remains positive that the long term price of ETH sustains the levels above $2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL in the control zone!!!The price is in the first control zone of 1.065-1.209 on the daily timeframe. Asset redistribution often occurs in this zone, which we are now observing (sideways)! The price is below the volume price of 1.149 That is, the main volume is traded above the current price! The next zone is 1.539-1.959 According to my strategy, there is nothing more to add! With a circle and an arrow, I marked the places where the price is located. Just for general understanding!!!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by InHoldOut
1
Total Market Cap analysisThe Total Crypto Market Cap currently stands at an impressive $1.134 trillion, reflecting the collective valuation of the cryptocurrency landscape. This substantial figure is underpinned by a strong foundation of support, strategically positioned within the range of $1.095 trillion to $1.113 trillion. This particular zone has assumed the role of a resilient buffer, effectively facilitating market movements both above and below its boundaries. Further fortifications lie ahead in the form of significant support levels at approximately $1.029 trillion and $977.725 billion. Delving into the sentiment surrounding the $1.0975 trillion support, discerning analysts anticipate an impending market sell-off, a substantial movement that could drive prices downward, potentially culminating in a swift and sharp decline reminiscent of the tumultuous days observed in late May and early June of 2023. As we scrutinize the current market landscape, a distinct consolidation phase unfolds, characterized by price oscillations confined between the $1.175 trillion and $1.095 trillion thresholds. A pivotal juncture materializes when considering the prospect of breaching the formidable resistance at $1.175 trillion. Such an accomplishment is expected to trigger a bullish sentiment, exerting the potential to catapult the market towards the upper echelons of $1.234 trillion to $1.262 trillion. However, this zone is no stranger to resistance, having served as a resilient barrier that has precipitated significant market downturns on two prior occasions. With market sentiment currently trending in the realm of neutrality, it becomes evident that a breach of either the support or resistance thresholds holds the power to decisively tip the scales towards either bullish or bearish inclinations.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by LuqmanEjaz
MARKETS week ahead: August 7 – 13Last week in the news The rating agency Fitch downgraded the long term credit rating of the US by one notch to AA+ from previous AAA. Market reacted with a negative sentiment, bringing the US equity markets lower and Treasury yields to the upside. The crypto market was traded flat most of the week, sliding down as of Friday`s trading. Bitcoin is ending the week at FWB:29K , while Ether is still managing to hold modestly above $1.8K. Quite a negative news hit the markets at the beginning of the previous week. One of the largest US credit rating agencies, Fitch, downgraded the US Government long-term currency issuer default rating to AA+, from previous AAA grade. The rationale for such a decision was “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years” as well as lack of governance for its debt-ceiling. This was certainly a huge surprise for markets which were traded in a red zone through the rest of the week. However, economists have different opinions. On one side are those who are questioning why such a decision is coming at this point of time, when all said in the Fitch`s report is well known from a long time ago. On the other side are those who are cheering such a decision as it could help the Fed to finally halt its monetary tightening. Markets were cheering Ripple Lab`s win over SEC with higher optimism that it could be of some use in other SEC`s disputes with several crypto market participants, for which closure is still pending. It was a sort of surprise and also disappointment for markets when this ruling was rejected by the Southern District of New York Judge Rakoff in a case between SEC and Coinbase. Rationale for a rejection was “a misinterpretation of the Howey test”. This makes it an extremely hard task for Coinbase to use Ripple`s ruling for its own benefit in this case. Finally some good news for Binance. Binance`s CEO CZ officially announced that a subsidiary of the company in Japan will start its operations in this country from August 14th. Binance entered Japan`s market in November last year, by acquiring Sakura Exchange BitCoin crypto exchange. This is good news for Binance in a moment when the company is facing scrutiny from regulators in the US and the EU. As per CME reports, investors have doubled their positions in the crypto options during July. Options trading activity increased by 24% in July from the month before for both BTC and ETH options. This might be an indication that investors are currently looking for a hedging tool for their positions in these coins. Filings for BTC exchange traded funds are growing among financial institutions in the US. While BlackRock is still waiting for the final resolution of its application with the SEC for the first BTC based ETF, during the previous week ProShares and Bitwise also filed their applications for both BTC and ETH exchange traded funds. In case that BlackRock receives a positive outcome for their filing, it will be a huge gain for the BTC and crypto community, and would certainly open the door for other ETF`s based on other coins, like ETH. Crypto market cap Markets are calming down after surprising news during the previous week that the Fitch rating agency has downgraded the US long-term debt by one notch, to AA+ from previous AAA. How this move would impact the future economic outlook is about to be seen. Economists are noting that a downgrade would mean further increase of costs of borrowing, considering that the financial industry would now seek higher interest rates on borrowed funds, in order to cover increased risk for borrowing funds. Higher costs of borrowing might further slow down economic activity, but to what extent, is to be seen, as the US economy has been pretty resilient to significant increase of Fed's interest rates during the previous period. The crypto market continues to be on hold, marking the third week on a downside. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 2% during the week, losing $24B in total value. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, moving around FWB:46B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 48%, where it has added total $366B to the market cap. Another week the crypto market finished in red. Two coins were leading the drop in total market cap in nominal terms. Ether lost almost $5B, dropping its value by 2.2% on a weekly basis. ETH was followed by XRP, with a drop in value of more than 12% or $4.5B. This time, Bitcoin took the third place, whose market value dropped by $2.2B or 0.4% compared to the week before. Solana was another coin with a significant loss of $1B in value, dropping by more than 10% on a weekly basis. At the same time, BNB managed to sustain its value flat during the week. Significant losers in relative terms during this week were Stellar, with a drop of 13.6% w/w, Litecoin was down by 9.4%, LINK lost almost 8% in value same as OMG Network, Theta also dropped by 7.5%. The only coin with a significant increase in value was Bitcoin Gold, which managed to increase its value by more than 16% during the week. At this moment there is no official information available as to why this surge occurred. Coins in circulation remained relatively stable during the week, except for Polkadot`s increase of circulating coins by a significant 1.4%. Solana had a modest surge by 0.2%, same as Stellar. Crypto futures market For the third week in a row, crypto futures were traded lower. Short term Bitcoin futures were traded around 2.8% lower from the week before, however, longer term futures were traded in a green zone at Friday`s trading session on CME. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at price of $30.355, while December 2024 managed to end the week at price of $32.955. Although the price did not manage to reach levels above BER:33K , this is still a positive sign of investors' expectations for the future price of the BTC. Market optimism for ETH futures is still lacking a higher level of confidence. Short term futures were down by some 2.5% on average, while longer term futures were last traded about 1% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded down by 1.5%, ending the week at price $1.892. Futures maturing in December 2024 finished the week at level of $2.009, or 1.13% lower from the week before.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Deeper look into the Total Crypto Market Cap (5D)On the 5 Day, we have retested the area which the 200 and 50 EMAs cross, which I have found throughout my time in charts to ALWAYS be a very important area for price to move after the initial cross occurs, and then gives it its move. It has now Double Topped potentially at that level as well, with the potential technical target being potentially a double bottom or new low. I have seen in many cases, however, when the candles retest areas where the Significant Period EMAs have crossed previously, it is usually ALSO a very important fibonacci retracement level. In most cases, the 200 and 5o EMA cross (death/golden cross) results in price retesting this level again after the initial impulse has been complete. This results in generally a golden pocket or .786 retracement. I will be watching for either: 1: Price to come down to the 50 EMA and bounce, 2. Price to show signs of weakness continuing on the daily 200 EMA, 3. Price to get an ambitious move up to establish that EMA Cross as a new support. The most entertaining outcome is probably the most likely. The most entertaining for me would be a double top to about 700B but I believe we have put in the cycle bottom, and even if we did come all the way down, it would still need to crack ALL of those levels. I think a rational target would be the neckline of the double top.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by QuantumDivergence
Crypto Total Market Cap near critical inflectionWe have seen the total market cap slowly trending down for quite some time. It is now approaching a very key inflection point at a potential rejection of the 4hr 400 EMA which has the potential to have us seeking out the most significant period EMA, the 800 EMA, which comes in just below this closest order block. If that 800 EMA is lost, we will likely see a quick trip back down below 1T again. I personally am holding off on too bearish of sentiment until 1.10 is decisively lost. I have to say, I have seen things look much better. Still not over though, I hope we come down big so we can stack some more. Be careful out there, may all your bags PAMP
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by QuantumDivergence
MARKETS week ahead: July 30 – August 5Last week in the news Both Fed and ECB increased their reference interest rates by 25bps, which was fully in line with market expectations. Markets ended the week digesting the central banker`s view on the current state of both economies, in expectations that pivoting might come somewhere during the course of the next year. All markets slowed down during the week, still S&P 500 ended the week 1% higher on the inflation data. Bitcoin continues to struggle to hold FWB:29K , while Ether finished the week below $1.9K. There have not been any surprises when Central bankers are in question. Fed increased its reference interest rates by 25 bps as it was expected, with some probability for additional rate hike till the end of this year. In the meantime, figures are showing that the US inflation continues to ease further through the course of this year. Still, Fed Chair Powell continues to stress that further rate increases would be data-driven and that FOMC members will rely their future decisions exclusively on economic data. Some economists are again raising a question of how further increase of interest rates will affect small banks in the US, implying that some of them might enter into trouble, considering incurred fair value losses on Treasury bonds portfolios. At the same time, Central bankers in the EU also raised interest rates by 25 bps, with an old note that inflation will stay elevated for a longer period of time. However, the ECB President Lagarde did not exclude the possibility to pause further rate hikes in September. The recession fears are still very high on the EU market, especially with its major economy, Germany, significantly slowing down since the beginning of this year. A huge surprise during the previous week was an unexpected move for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. As they called it, “a greater flexibility”, means that the BoJ would leave its yield curve to fluctuate within a range of plus/minus 1% instead of current 50 bps. The BoJ is well known for its 0% yields policy on 10Y government bonds. It is keeping their rates around 0% in order to support economic growth. However, this move might have broad implications on developed financial markets, considering that many large institutions were taking advantage of interest rate differentials in Japan and the US or EU. They were taking JPY funds at 0% or near 0% in order to invest them in the western markets at higher yields. A new BoJ policy would mean more expensive funds for investors and lower level of investments in other markets. Both EU and US markets reacted to this news with lower closes. Worldcoin (WLD) became live during the previous week. It is a project of Sam Altman, a CEO of Open AI, which drew many controversies before its official launch. The coin is based on privacy-preserved identity, or World ID, which allows for humans to have an identity in the digital world. It is also noted that its aim is to “distribute a universal basic income to people worldwide”. However, for authorities in the EU it rang a bell for its data protection rules, as they are currently investigating legality of such a data collection. At the same time, the Worldcoin Foundation commented to CoinDesk that they will cooperate with the government on their “privacy and data protection practices”. Crypto market cap The Fed increased its interest rates by 25 bps as it has been expected. Still, posted inflation figures for the US are showing that inflation continues to be on a down-track, which supports investors optimism that the monetary tightening might soon come to an end. Still, it should be taken into consideration that Fed Chair Powell promised two rate hikes till the end of this year, which leave us with one additional 25 bps hike in the coming months. A potential Fed`s pivoting will support investors' appetite for riskier assets. Until then, investors remain oriented toward the equity markets and US Treasury bonds, especially the short term ones. The crypto market is for the last two weeks left aside from investors' attention. Second week in a row the crypto market capitalisation is finishing the week with a modest drop in value. During the previous week, total market cap dropped by 2%, losing $19B in the total value. Major coins on the market were the ones which were dragging the market to the downside. This week, the majority of altcoins also followed the same path. Daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of FWB:37B on a daily basis, from FWB:49B traded during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year stands at 52%, where it has added a total $390B to the market cap. Several altcoins finished the previous week in green. Major coins on the market were the ones that were leading the total market capitalization to the downside in a nominal sense, participating with a total 75% in $19B value decrease. Bitcoin lost even $11.8B or 2% of its market value during the week. Ether managed to hold relatively flat, with a modest drop in value of $2.2B or less than 1%. XRP was also on a losing side, with a drop in market cap of almost $3B or 7.4% on a weekly basis. Other altcoins were losing less than 10%, among which NEO lost almost 6%, EOS was down by 5.3% and Polygon dropped by 6.3% w/w. There were few coins with relatively solid performance, like Maker, who managed to gain 13% in value. There was also a DOGE with an increase in market cap of 8.6%. As for coins in circulation, the market calmed down compared to the week before, and there has not been much change. Polkadot managed to increase its circulating coins by 2.9% w/w, while XRP continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 0.3% during the previous week. Tether remained flat during the week. Crypto futures market Crypto futures market continued its correction which started a week before. During the previous week, there has been a further drop in BTC short term futures by more than 2%, while ETH futures were traded down by some 1.5% on average. BTC longer term futures also had a correction of more than 2%. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded down by 1.98%, and finished the week at price $30.500. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2024 finished the week by 2.16% lower from the week before, at price $32.880, and down from $33.605 traded as of the end of the previous week. ETH long term futures dropped by 1.60% w/w. December this year was last traded at the price of $1.911, dropping below $2K psychological level. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded 1.55% lower from the week before, while still managing to hold above $2K level. Last traded price was $2.032 on CME.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
👁TOTAL:Crypto Market Prospect-a Vision of C Market to consider✏️Hi every one! As you know Market is in a questionable Place, Some say Bull Run going to start soon, and some say That was it! and BTC gonna Fall below 10k, I belive The Run kinda Started already! But all opinions aside I had This sight for a while and I'd liked to share with you. ✯So I am Bullish at all, BUT until That moment, I belive market should've go Some Swing Down❗️ How Much? Better Decide together AFTER checking Options in This Sight. I tryed to empty The chart for The clear view, But some should remain for giving direction, So please zoom in for more details. 🟣As You can see in The chart,price is playing at a opposite Triangle,Which is at End/Top corner of Another opposite Triangle, which is much bigger and drew in white. 🟡we also have multi divergence in The chart, most important of them is on Daily {visible at OS/Volume osc/RSI} I Marked Them with yellow colored brush, one more lesser important divergence is in 4H,visible in green brush if you zoom. 📌 📌 📌 As I Mentioned vision is what is more important,But I also marked The bear Time Targets on The chart With pink H.ray , Here we go; 1️⃣ 1.17T when Price test downside of The channel and rise, which is dreamy For Bulls!! 2️⃣1.033T when Price test The mid of Second/smaller Triangle and Break out/rise. 3️⃣845.588B when Price go Down and complete another Side of T , Then Break Out. 4️⃣462.473B when Price swing down smaller Triangle,Break it down and fall to form a whole New Side of That Main Triangle. [Not LIkely/BEARS choice 📊I repeat,I Just want to give you a prospective and share a Sight, and I appreciate your comment, good when you say you are interested out loud, commenting your own sight will also be Nice Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Paarham
6
Let Time Be Your GuideCrypto Market Monthly Chart The Crypto Market Cap can offer great perspective for long term swing trade entry and exits into BTC and ETH, and should be watched closely as this market develops. There is a clear time pattern which would suggest that you should have your position or at least be DCA'ing now into the reliable market participants BTC and ETH. You should have a position size that would allow you to withstand volatility down to €17k and not exit the trade, you should have a position you wont exit until mid 2025. The 10 month moving average is also turning up and moving in the right direction again, as it did during the orange "Get Ready" periods historically, these were good entry periods. With a recession looking very probable in the next 6 - 18 months (as the yield curve has started to un-invert), it is important to recognize that we might have a March 2020 style correction for the Crypto Market Cap, thus I have overlaid that bull period (Jun 2019 - Nov 2021) onto the chart as a projection of what may be possible. It would not surprise me to see a correction of this magnitude down to approx. €17k, do i expect to happen? NO! but we have to be open to the possibility, especially with the high probability of a recession over coming 6 - 18 month period. Thus it would be wise to position accordingly and potentially have a little powder on the sidelines. Regardless, you should have your core position in place or be getting it in place as there is likely a 29 month period of upwards trajectory incoming and all you truly need is to maintain your emotions and practice patience until mid 2025. Good luck on your 29 month trading journey, stay focused on time and patience.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by PukaCharts
2