TOTAL trade ideas
USD Surge and Risk-Off Moves: Factors Behind Cryptocurrency DownCryptocurrencies have seen some aggressive turndown lately, and there are a few reasons for a drop.
1.SpaceX Selling Bitcoins: Firstly, there was news last week that SpaceX, a company known for space exploration, had sold some of their Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin is a major cryptocurrency, any large sale by a well-known names, creates uncertainty in the market a especially when news is in connection with Elon Musk.
2. Risk-Off Moves and Strong USD: “Risk-off” moves refer to investors becoming more cautious and moving their investments away from riskier assets like stocks, and even cryptos and moving them into cash. So USD is recovering making cryptos weak which is not a surprise as US yields are still on the rise.
3. Ripple Case and SEC Appeal: The news about the Ripple case also contributed to the drop. The judge has decided to allow the SEC to appeal the case means there is still some uncertainty about how cryptocurrencies like XRP will be regulated. Ripple has seen some nice drop so far and erased all of the gains that were made in July after the announcement of a Ripple win over SEC. From a longer-term perspective, I think Ripple is moving into the attractive zone for a bounce, now after some “weak hands” are gone following an over-crowded and over-optimistic reaction back in July.
All of these factors above combined create of instability in the cryptocurrency market, causing prices to decrease but when looking at the cryptocurrency total market cap, there can be some interesting support still for this year as we see wave C in progress; final leg of a contra-trend movement.
MARKETS week ahead: August 21 – 27Last week in the news
China is evidently slowing down, while Fed's meeting minutes revealed the possibility for interest rates to move even higher from currently expected levels. Negative sentiment continues to prevail on financial markets. Both EU and US equities continued their negative trend for the third week in a row, while US Treasuries continue to rise. Bitcoin had the worst week since May this year, followed by other crypto coins. Markets are clearly revisiting their optimism from the beginning of this year.
China's housing market is passing through difficult times. During the previous week markets were hit by a series of negative news related to some Chinese big players within this industry. One of the largest real estate companies, Country Garden, defaulted on its bond payments on Monday. On the other side, by far the largest real estate company in China, Evergrande, registered in the US, filed for protection under the bankruptcy law in the US. The company was previously in trouble, trying to save the business through restructuring, but it failed to find supporting funds for that mission. Further destiny of the company is currently unknown.
Another important event which made an impact on market sentiment was a release of FOMC meeting minutes from its meeting held in July. One of the concerns expressed at this meeting was the possibility that more rate hikes will be necessary in the future period in order to fight inflation. Several FOMC members were concerned that a tight job market could support further increase in inflation, which would require more rate hikes. Markets were holding to previous Fed Chair Powell's statement over possible two rate hikes till the end of this year. Since the Fed increased rates in July, markets were expecting another one in September through December. However, minutes revealed something on which markets were not prepared, and that is the possibility for further rate hikes, which made them reassess their economic growth prospectus for the next year. Minutes mentioned another important topic, which is related to FOMC members' concern over the issues in commercial real estate and problems which they can cause to some banks and financial institutions. The market reaction was that both the equities and crypto market lost in value during the week, while Treasury yields surged.
Coinbase announced that the company gained the regulatory approval from National Futures Association to offer crypto future products to US customers. The company also noted that it filed an application for this product in 2021. This approval refers to only federally regulated futures. News was perceived positively by the markets, as shares of Coinbase gained 5% after the announcement.
Although CBDC`s are still not officially launched, many companies are preparing for this moment, and trying to create full ecosystems around CBDC`s. One of the world’s largest payment and cards companies, Mastercard, organized a forum related to this topic, including some of the well-known names from the crypto industry, including Ripple, Fireblocks and Consensys. At this moment, their program partnership includes only discussions on innovation drives and efficiencies, however, it could be easily expanded in the future.
Crypto market cap
Final break to the downside occurred on the crypto market during the previous week. There are two major reasons which supported negative market sentiment. On the one side are published FOMC meeting minutes which revealed concerns of some FOMC members that more rate hikes will be necessary in the coming months / year in order to cope with inflation. There is also expressed concern over issues in commercial real estate which can bring potential negative consequences to some banks and financial institutions. At the same time, China's real estate market exposed some huge concerns, when big real estate company Country Garden defaulted on part of its bond payments, while the biggest player in this field, company Evergrande, filed for protection under the US bankruptcy law. Economists called such developments “a perfect storm” for financial markets. Not only that crypto market lost a significant portion of its value within a week, but was also followed by US equity markets.
Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 9%, losing a total $107B. Daily trading volumes almost doubled during the week, trading around $65B on a daily basis, from $35B during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 36%, where it has added total $273B to the market cap.
All coins lost during the previous week, however, drop in value of $107B on a weekly basis was driven by major coins, which participated with 89% in this drop. BTC lost FWB:68B or around 12% on a weekly basis, and was followed by ETH, with a drop of $23B or more than 10%. XRP was another coin with a significant drop in value of $6.6B or less than 20%. BNB was down by almost $4B or 10.6%. DOGE decreased its value by 17% or $1.8B in nominal amounts. Both ADA and SOL dropped around $1B losing 9.8% and 11.5% in value respectively. Majority of all other altcoins lost between 10% and 20% in value. As for coins in circulation, Tether managed to lose 0.7% circulating coins in a single week, which is not recently seen on the market. At the same time, Solana increased its circulating coins by 0.4%.
Crypto futures market
Negative news and investor’s sentiment left its mark also on the crypto futures market. As per Coinglass data, around $1B loss in liquidations of long positions were wiped out from this market. It was one of the worst sell-offs of the year. Short term BTC futures ended the week around 11% lower from the week before, while ETH futures dropped by more than 10%. On a positive side is that longer term futures suffered a lower drop in prices.
BTC long term futures were down by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year ended the Friday`s trading session at level of $26.900, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at price $31.275. On a positive side is that December next year is still holding above $30K level.
ETH long term futures dropped more than 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at price $1.778. Futures maturing in December 2024 dropped below $2K level where they were managing to hold for a few weeks. Last price for those futures was $1.890.
Are you ready for BTC around 1$ ?As the development of Web3 unfolds, there are several reasons why Bitcoin's value could potentially decline significantly, even reaching as low as $1
Regulatory Uncertainty: If Web3 becomes subject to heightened regulatory intervention, uncertainty about the future of cryptocurrencies and their usage might arise. This could erode investor trust and negatively impact Bitcoin's value.
Competition from Other Cryptocurrencies: The development of decentralized ecosystems based on different cryptocurrencies within the realm of Web3 could divert attention and capital away from Bitcoin. If new projects offer distinct benefits and innovations, it might reduce the demand for Bitcoin.
Shift in Investor Priorities: With the emergence of new opportunities within Web3, investors might shift their focus to various aspects of the cryptocurrency landscape. This temporary loss of interest in Bitcoin could affect its price.
Technological Issues and Vulnerabilities: Innovations and technological changes associated with Web3 might introduce new vulnerabilities or technical challenges. If these issues were to impact Bitcoin or its infrastructure, it could undermine trust and value.
Altered Perception and Use of Cryptocurrencies: Web3 has the potential to reshape the perception and utilization of cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin becomes less prominent compared to novel technologies and applications within Web3, its value could be at the risk
I'm curious to hear your reactions and comments on these perspectives.
1 Trillion Market Cap - SupportFlash crash of 18 August 2023 was one of the fastest seen in recents flash crashes with a low touched in just 4 minutes (4 - 1 minute candles).
Impressive than the low of such well organized (if not manipulated) flash crash was just the psychological level of 1 trillion market cap. Even liquid exchanges and Perp contracts saw many arbitrage opportunities with over 500$ differenfe for some minute between exchanges and also futures arbitrages for over 1000$ per BTC. Well done.
What do you think so about the 1 trillion market cap support? We will be a le to find a base and support for a final high around 34000$ for BTC? Or this is just an alarm and soon a breakout of 1 trillion market cap will open the road for a bear market with target lows below 2022 low?
Thanks for reading.
Total Crypto Cap Idea For The Rest of the MonthUsing CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL as a guide for the rest of the market, this is what I'm keeping in mind over the next 2 weeks.
On the weekly timeframe we are currently Under the 200 MA which is right around 1.08T
It's highly Likely we close under that on Sunday.
Next week we will look to find support in the range of 1.024T and ~1T.
To the upside I have set an alert at 1.038T
I don't expect too much price action over the weekend.
But in the coming days watch for the death cross(21 and 200) and potential bearish retest on the Daily timeframe.
Waiting game now.
Keeping in mind Super Moon (Bullish) at the end of this month may signal some bullish price action. If that is the case price should bottom over over the next week or so.
Crypto Total Market Cap - Watch 400B MCLook at the weekly timeframe and your indicators to find future divergences that could set up for entries. Bulls are going to get destroyed in the next 12 months.
TOTAL & BTC: Guide to Trend Line AnalysisHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
One of the most important parts of trading is following the macro phase and planning your trades. The only way to do this, is to pre-identify the macro market cycle that's currently playing out, as well as determine key zones of support and resistance. You do this by drawing up trend lines on the chart, from a macro perspective.
Here's a comprehensive Guide to Elliot Wave Theory, done on ETH :
To summarize if you're short on time, Elliot wave identifies upward and downward phases during an overall bullish or bearish cycle. Wave 1-2 can often correct a near 50% from starting point of wave 0-1. This means the price can drop -50%, and you would still be in a bullish cycle .
Now that we've discussed Elliot waves, we can also take a quick look at Wyckoff Method for BTC, which I did over here:
In other words, don't be scared of corrections! Wait and plan your trade. There's no need to force a trade. If you have identified your support and resistance zones with diagonal and horizontal trend lines, you can wait for the price to reach your target and execute a brilliant trade with a great risk-reward setup.
Do not rush to buy BitcoinThe chart is telling. According to the price action pattern, the result of the divergence is clear. If sentiment turns negative, I even think a break of the green support line is possible.
Cryptocurrenices making deeper pullback after FOMC minutesThe USD edged slightly higher, and stocks hit new lows for the week yesterday after the release of FOMC minutes. These minutes revealed that officials expressed concerns about the pace of inflation and noted the possibility of additional rate hikes unless future data suggests otherwise. So cryptos are down as USD seem much more attractive with higher yields/lower treasuries. Crypto total market cap is coming lower, but can be in C wave of a higher degree pullback, but it has room for slightly more weakness till support is reached. Ideally near 1.05/1.06T. So from an Elliott wave perspective, the whole pattern still looks good for bulls, but more time and patience is needed here, during summer pullbacks.
Golden Pocket Rejection We dropped down to a swing failure pattern May 12th. (a long wick down). We then sprang back up on the 15th to create a small range for the month of May. The low and high of that range used to pull the fib and find a golden pocket at 1.15 trillion . We have left that range long ago but since rejected from it twice. I wonder if we will retrace to the POC below and continue ranging? My gut says we go down but that doesn't mean anything really.
Now here's the thing. If you zoom out 100% and draw a fib from the lowest low to the highest high you will see the golden pocket is.........1.15 trillion. I cant make this stuff up.
Total crypto MC vs Gold ??You might call it optimistic but for me it’s obvious, total crypto MC will go higher than btc in percentage due to so many good projects and bitcoin getting old ( like it did last cycle )
From the bottom to new highs it usually takes 700 to 800 days for and bitcoin bull cycle , with my math somewhere between end of 2024 to march 2025 we will see the top .
First target for me will be gold market cap where people waiting for bitcoin mc to get golds which im not sure that happens so ill wait to see if that’s possible at the time .
A bit soon to get a decision but probably i get mine when price was at the date i appointed.
IMPORTANT LEVEL FOR CRYPTO MARKET CAP!CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 1 (2D)
Decision time for the whole of the #Crypto Market.
We have formed an Ascending Triangle currently up against heavy resistance between ~ $1.13T & $1.18T.
Break up, obviously good things to follow.
Lose the trend line and we target the red circle.
MIL:BTC EURONEXT:ALTS
MARKETS week ahead: August 14 – 20Last week in the news
The stock markets continued with their modest correction for a second week in a row. US banks ended the week in negative territory after Moody's downgraded ten banks and put some big US names on watch for a downgrade in the coming period. At the same time US Treasurys modestly increased during the week, after published inflation data in line with expectations. Crypto market gained on Moody's downgrade of US banks. Bitcoin is ending another week below $30K, while Ether found strong support above $1.8K level.
The US Consumer Price Index published for July increased 3.2% y/y, less than market expectations, rising 0.2% for the month. Core CPI also rose 0.2%, running at 4.7% on a yearly basis. Figures are showing that the inflation is slowing down in the US, but it is still running above Fed's target of 2%. Many analysts are of the opinion that this trend would make the Fed probably to hold its next rate increase and postpone it till the end of this year. On the other side investors are looking for a moment of Fed`s pivot, which would mean that the Fed would start to decrease interest rates. Still, Fed Chair Powell noted that it should be expected for rates to stay elevated for a longer period of time even if inflation slows down further.
Two weeks ago credit rating agency Fitch downgraded US government long-term currency issuer default rating to AA+, while during the previous week another credit rating agency Moody's downgraded ten US banks. In addition, Moody's put several banks to watch for the downgrade, including some big names like Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust. As a rationale for such a decision, Moody`s is noting asset-liability practices in these banks, with high exposures to the interest rate risks, coming from depression of Treasury holdings due to increased interest rates which might deteriorate banks value and earnings potential. This news supported Bitcoin trading, while negatively affecting equity markets.
Tesla`s Chief Financial Officer, Zach Kirkhorn, announced to step down from his position in the company, after spending the last four years in this position and a total 13 years in Tesla. There has not been announced reason for such a decision. Markets reacted in a negative manner, pushing TSLA shares 3% lower.
Nvidia passed the $1 trillion valuation, with the latest surge in stock price, putting this company in line with other big 4 names – Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet. This came as a result of making the best graphic processors for OpenAI and ChatGPT. Although investors see high earnings potential with this company, still, there are analysts who are arguing that the company is highly overpriced at this moment. Their opinion is that the general AI market is highly overvalued and its potential to drive future gains. Some analysts are even making a parallel between the 1999 dot-com bubble and current frenzy about AI.
PayPal launched its stablecoin PayPal USD (PYUSD) aiming to keep pace with increasing interest for payments in crypto currencies. Analysts see it as a positive move from PayPal as it will be able to adjust easily for forthcoming central bank digital currencies, which will be available in the near future.
Crypto market cap
Markets continue to move flat, digesting both positive and negative news. Credit rating agencies in the US are continuing with downgrades, after Fitch downgraded US Government long term debt by one notch, Moody's downgraded ten US banks with more of them on the watchlist for the same move in the coming period. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, holding at the level of 3.2% in July. Although this is positive news, still, analysts are questioning whether this slowdown in inflation would impact Fed's decision to hold with further increases of interest rates. A fear of recession vanished on the market, with increasing voices over so-called soft-landing of the economy. With a strong jobs market, strong earnings and higher than expected Q2 GDP assumptions on soft-landing are well supported.
Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, with a modest increase of FWB:14B or less than 1% on a weekly basis. This is the third week when daily trading volumes have significantly decreased. Previous week`s range was around $35B on a daily basis, which is a further decrease from FWB:46B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 50%, where it has added total $380B to the market cap.
The crypto market entered into side trade during the previous week. Significantly decreased daily trading volumes are not able to push the price to either side. Still, the majority of coins finished the previous week on a shy green side, with few of them with good weekly performance. Bitcoin added $5.5B to its market cap during the week, increasing its value by less than 1%. Same performance had ETH with an increase in cap of $2B. In a relative term, Solana continued with gains, adding more than 10% during the previous week. Algorand also had solid performance with an increase in value of 6.4% w/w. LINK gained 4%, while DASH managed to increase its cap by 5.8%. Few coins were on a losing side, like Bitcoin Gold, which decreased its value by 3.5%, Ethereum Classic was down by 1.1%, while Maker and Polkadot were both down by 2.4% w/w. There has not been significant changes in coins in circulation, where Filecoin was the highest gainer with 0.6% increase in its circulating coins.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures remained relatively flat during the previous week, in line with developments on the spot market. BTC short term futures were up by some 0.5% on average, while long term ones were traded higher by modest 0.3% w/w. BTC futures maturing in December this year are still holding above $30K, and finished the week at level of $30.425, while those maturing in December next year were traded modestly higher with last trade on Friday closed at price $33.065.
ETH futures were also in a flat mode. Short term ones were traded down by some 0.4% on average, while long term ones were traded in green. December 2023 is finishing the week at level of $1.894, 0.37% lower from the week before, while December 2024 was traded 0.2% higher and finished the week at price of $2.013. It remains positive that the long term price of ETH sustains the levels above $2K.
TOTAL in the control zone!!!The price is in the first control zone of 1.065-1.209 on the daily timeframe.
Asset redistribution often occurs in this zone,
which we are now observing (sideways)!
The price is below the volume price of 1.149
That is, the main volume is traded above the current price!
The next zone is 1.539-1.959
According to my strategy, there is nothing more to add!
With a circle and an arrow, I marked the places where the price is located.
Just for general understanding!!!
Bull and Bear Last RoundThis is the last round between bull and bear.
We need the total market cap to pump above the MA20 Monthly, in order hand “We must pass the MA20 Monthly this August”
If we dont, so we will rejected and semptember would be SeptemBEAR.
The last round is this monthly closing.
Total crypto market cap, possible trendExpecting minor fluctuation in market cap even though trend remains bullish for 2023 going into 2024.
On 4h TF change of momentum favours increase in new investors since Aug7th ,2023.
TOTAL Crypto Purchase !!!Global Zone 1.008T-709.181B
Purchase level 869.515B
Local area 873.661B-657.391B
Purchase level 775.162B
Sweet Shopping Zone 857.15B-741.039B
Secret purchase level 737.157B dotted line!
Total Market Cap analysisThe Total Crypto Market Cap currently stands at an impressive $1.134 trillion, reflecting the collective valuation of the cryptocurrency landscape. This substantial figure is underpinned by a strong foundation of support, strategically positioned within the range of $1.095 trillion to $1.113 trillion. This particular zone has assumed the role of a resilient buffer, effectively facilitating market movements both above and below its boundaries. Further fortifications lie ahead in the form of significant support levels at approximately $1.029 trillion and $977.725 billion. Delving into the sentiment surrounding the $1.0975 trillion support, discerning analysts anticipate an impending market sell-off, a substantial movement that could drive prices downward, potentially culminating in a swift and sharp decline reminiscent of the tumultuous days observed in late May and early June of 2023.
As we scrutinize the current market landscape, a distinct consolidation phase unfolds, characterized by price oscillations confined between the $1.175 trillion and $1.095 trillion thresholds. A pivotal juncture materializes when considering the prospect of breaching the formidable resistance at $1.175 trillion. Such an accomplishment is expected to trigger a bullish sentiment, exerting the potential to catapult the market towards the upper echelons of $1.234 trillion to $1.262 trillion. However, this zone is no stranger to resistance, having served as a resilient barrier that has precipitated significant market downturns on two prior occasions. With market sentiment currently trending in the realm of neutrality, it becomes evident that a breach of either the support or resistance thresholds holds the power to decisively tip the scales towards either bullish or bearish inclinations.
Resistance and falling volume.The accumulation of resistance for 9 seasons (yellow).
VFI transition to the red half.
I think we need liquidity to break down.
MARKETS week ahead: August 7 – 13Last week in the news
The rating agency Fitch downgraded the long term credit rating of the US by one notch to AA+ from previous AAA. Market reacted with a negative sentiment, bringing the US equity markets lower and Treasury yields to the upside. The crypto market was traded flat most of the week, sliding down as of Friday`s trading. Bitcoin is ending the week at FWB:29K , while Ether is still managing to hold modestly above $1.8K.
Quite a negative news hit the markets at the beginning of the previous week. One of the largest US credit rating agencies, Fitch, downgraded the US Government long-term currency issuer default rating to AA+, from previous AAA grade. The rationale for such a decision was “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years” as well as lack of governance for its debt-ceiling. This was certainly a huge surprise for markets which were traded in a red zone through the rest of the week. However, economists have different opinions. On one side are those who are questioning why such a decision is coming at this point of time, when all said in the Fitch`s report is well known from a long time ago. On the other side are those who are cheering such a decision as it could help the Fed to finally halt its monetary tightening.
Markets were cheering Ripple Lab`s win over SEC with higher optimism that it could be of some use in other SEC`s disputes with several crypto market participants, for which closure is still pending. It was a sort of surprise and also disappointment for markets when this ruling was rejected by the Southern District of New York Judge Rakoff in a case between SEC and Coinbase. Rationale for a rejection was “a misinterpretation of the Howey test”. This makes it an extremely hard task for Coinbase to use Ripple`s ruling for its own benefit in this case.
Finally some good news for Binance. Binance`s CEO CZ officially announced that a subsidiary of the company in Japan will start its operations in this country from August 14th. Binance entered Japan`s market in November last year, by acquiring Sakura Exchange BitCoin crypto exchange. This is good news for Binance in a moment when the company is facing scrutiny from regulators in the US and the EU.
As per CME reports, investors have doubled their positions in the crypto options during July. Options trading activity increased by 24% in July from the month before for both BTC and ETH options. This might be an indication that investors are currently looking for a hedging tool for their positions in these coins.
Filings for BTC exchange traded funds are growing among financial institutions in the US. While BlackRock is still waiting for the final resolution of its application with the SEC for the first BTC based ETF, during the previous week ProShares and Bitwise also filed their applications for both BTC and ETH exchange traded funds. In case that BlackRock receives a positive outcome for their filing, it will be a huge gain for the BTC and crypto community, and would certainly open the door for other ETF`s based on other coins, like ETH.
Crypto market cap
Markets are calming down after surprising news during the previous week that the Fitch rating agency has downgraded the US long-term debt by one notch, to AA+ from previous AAA. How this move would impact the future economic outlook is about to be seen. Economists are noting that a downgrade would mean further increase of costs of borrowing, considering that the financial industry would now seek higher interest rates on borrowed funds, in order to cover increased risk for borrowing funds. Higher costs of borrowing might further slow down economic activity, but to what extent, is to be seen, as the US economy has been pretty resilient to significant increase of Fed's interest rates during the previous period. The crypto market continues to be on hold, marking the third week on a downside. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 2% during the week, losing $24B in total value. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, moving around FWB:46B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 48%, where it has added total $366B to the market cap.
Another week the crypto market finished in red. Two coins were leading the drop in total market cap in nominal terms. Ether lost almost $5B, dropping its value by 2.2% on a weekly basis. ETH was followed by XRP, with a drop in value of more than 12% or $4.5B. This time, Bitcoin took the third place, whose market value dropped by $2.2B or 0.4% compared to the week before. Solana was another coin with a significant loss of $1B in value, dropping by more than 10% on a weekly basis. At the same time, BNB managed to sustain its value flat during the week. Significant losers in relative terms during this week were Stellar, with a drop of 13.6% w/w, Litecoin was down by 9.4%, LINK lost almost 8% in value same as OMG Network, Theta also dropped by 7.5%. The only coin with a significant increase in value was Bitcoin Gold, which managed to increase its value by more than 16% during the week. At this moment there is no official information available as to why this surge occurred. Coins in circulation remained relatively stable during the week, except for Polkadot`s increase of circulating coins by a significant 1.4%. Solana had a modest surge by 0.2%, same as Stellar.
Crypto futures market
For the third week in a row, crypto futures were traded lower. Short term Bitcoin futures were traded around 2.8% lower from the week before, however, longer term futures were traded in a green zone at Friday`s trading session on CME. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at price of $30.355, while December 2024 managed to end the week at price of $32.955. Although the price did not manage to reach levels above BER:33K , this is still a positive sign of investors' expectations for the future price of the BTC.
Market optimism for ETH futures is still lacking a higher level of confidence. Short term futures were down by some 2.5% on average, while longer term futures were last traded about 1% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded down by 1.5%, ending the week at price $1.892. Futures maturing in December 2024 finished the week at level of $2.009, or 1.13% lower from the week before.
