TOTAL2: When I’ll Deploy My Stables Back Into the MarketTiming the market perfectly is impossible, but using TOTAL2 and RSI, we can identify high-probability opportunities. Here’s my approach for the coming years.
I bought during the last dip, but my exposure is still less than what I sold before the crash. Here’s why.
Key Signals for Tops & Bottoms
RSI Patterns:
- Market Tops: Weekly RSI above 85 signals overheated conditions but does not always lead to an immediate reversal.
- Market Bottoms: Weekly RSI near 30 has historically marked strong accumulation zones.
- In the last seven years, RSI hit 30 only twice—2018 and 2022. I expect this level again within the next 24 months.
My plan:
I will deploy capital heavily when RSI approaches 30 again, securing long-term positions.
TOTAL 2 Scenarios: What Comes Next?
Scenario 1: Price Discovery
- If TOTAL 2 flips 2021 highs, ETH and altcoins will likely reach new all-time highs.
- Weekly RSI could exceed 85, potentially reaching 95, indicating extreme overbought conditions.
- I will take profits aggressively at this stage while also using a DCA strategy, as precise timing is never certain.
Scenario 2: Lower Highs Persist
- If RSI fails to reach overbought levels, this cycle may be weaker than expected.
- The 50 RSI zone is critical—if it aligns with oversold conditions on daily or 3-day RSI, it may present a selective buying opportunity.
- I have already taken partial profits since November 2024 to manage risk in case of this scenario.
Scenario 3: RSI Drop to 30
- This scenario appears likely within the next 24 months and would mark a bear market low.
- If BTC, ETH, and TOTAL 2 all hit 30 RSI, I will fully deploy stables with high conviction, considering it a generational buying opportunity.
Final Thoughts
Summary: I will increase exposure once RSI confirms strong long-term buy zones, but I am managing risk in the meantime.
What’s your take? Do you expect RSI to revisit 30?
TOTAL trade ideas
$TOTAL Close Lackluster - What This MeansCrypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap closes another day in its lower range $3.1T, failing to break the 9DEMA.
The TOTAL chart is not given enough credit because most do not understand it.
It’s best used to let us know how much money is sloshing around from narrative to narrative.
Once it definitively breaks that $3.7T range, then a rising tide raises all ships and it's ALTSEASON folks 🚀
$TOTAL potential bounce👀 It has been exactly one week since we witnessed the largest liquidation of traders in crypto history, while altcoins rapidly plunged to new lows. 📉
Looking at the Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization, last week was mostly a phase of accumulation/consolidation above the range low. 〰️
Overall, the current picture doesn’t look bad, and we have a good chance of seeing growth in the near future. 🧐
Total Crypto Market Capitalization prediction for 2025 v.2.0☀️ A ray of hope from us and what is drawn on the chart of total capitalization in the crypto market.
But first, re-read the post from 31/12/24 👇
Pay special attention to paragraph 5️⃣
📊 And now let's move on to the same chart - 1.5 months later, in a zoomed-in version.
The minimum was recorded at $2.81 trillion with an estimate/forecast of $2.85t
So, based on the fractal we proposed and built earlier, it turns out:
1️⃣ A “trial” wave of growth is coming soon
2️⃣ Then a short consolidation
3️⃣ In mid-March - the beginning of the alt-season. (Earlier we wrote that it would be a “miracle” if, despite the pessimistic forecasts that the Fed rate will not be reduced in the near future, it will be reduced on March 19)
P.S:
❓ so, do you believe in what the charts are showing?) Do you believe in growth?
⁉️ If so, which “cluster” of altos will set the growth trend, in your opinion?
MARKETS week ahead: February 10 – 16Last week in the news
The US jobs data posted on Friday increased investors' concerns over a potential increased inflation in the US in the coming period. The US equity markets reacted with a negative sentiment, pushing the S&P 500 0,95% to the lower grounds, where the index ended the week at the level of 6.025. The US Treasury yields also reacted to the potential increase in inflation by reaching for one more time levels of 4,5%. The price of gold continues its positive track for the six consecutive weeks, reaching a fresh new all time highest level at $2.860, still fearing trade tariffs imposed by the US Administration. The crypto market was quite volatile during the week, with BTC dropping down to the levels of $96K.
The main macro data released during the previous week were the ones related to the US jobs market. The non-farm payrolls reached 143K in January, which was lower from the market estimate of 170K. Still, the main concern related to inflation came from the unemployment rate of 4,0% in January, which was lower by 0,1 percentage point from December and from average hourly earnings which came at the level of 0,5% increase for the month, and higher from market estimate. Although all these figures are positive for the US economy, markets were not happy. Simply, by calculating that higher employment in combination with higher earnings will push the spending higher as well as inflation. In this scenario, the Fed will have no options to decrease interest rates, which will be held at current levels for a longer period of time. The S&P 500 ended Friday trading session by 0,95% lower, while US 10Y Treasury yields reached 4,5% on the data release.
The AI race continues among tech companies. As per published news, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are planning to invest $320 billion into artificial intelligence only during this year. These funds will be used to build up large data centers and other AI related infrastructure, which will support further development of the AI segment in these companies. Not only big techs are in the race for AI. As per news, SoftBank will invest $ 40B, with $260B valuation, into Open AI. Part of these funds will be used to further support the Stargete, a partnership project with Oracle.
The new US Administration is evidently bringing back large companies back to the US. The latest one which announced its return of focus toward the US market is a beauty-company L`Oreal. The company was a bit disappointed with its sale on the China market, in which sense, defined the US “as the land of opportunity”, switching back their focus from China to the US market.
Crypto market cap
The start of the previous week was promising, however, the second part of the week was not so nice for the crypto market. The US jobs data was the one to heat inflation fears, in which sense, investors reacted in a negative manner. All crypto coins ended the week in red, with BTC leading the drop in the crypto market capitalization in nominal terms. This week, there was a huge drop in the value of the crypto market, where $260B or 8% of the market capitalization was erased. Daily trading volumes remained almost flat in relation to the week before, moving around $ 230B on a daily basis. Total crypto market cap increase from the end of the previous year entered into a negative territory, with an actual decrease of 4%, where $120 was withdrawn from this market.
There has been a significant drop in the value of the crypto market, where almost all coins lost in value. BTC, as the coin with the highest market cap, decreased its value by 4,6% on a weekly basis, decreasing its cap by $92B. ETH also suffered a loss during the week, with a drop in value of 16,5% or $63B. XRP recently reached an ATH, however, this week the coin dropped by 16,%%, decreasing its value by almost $28B. DOGE was one of the main coins which suffered a higher loss of 19% w/w or $8,8B. Cardano was also down by 22,6% w/w or $7,2B. Market-favorite Solana also suffered the loss of 8,9% or $9,3B. TRUMP coins continue to lose value, with an additional drop in price of 11,7%.
As per coins in circulation, there have been some interesting developments with Polygon. Namely, the number of Polygons coins on the market increased by an incredible 24% during the single week. There is still no information regarding the cause of such a high increase of circulating coins. As for other altcoins, there has been an increase of 0,5% of the number of circulating coins of IOTA, while Solana increased its coins by 0,2%. At the same time, Maker decreased the number of coins in circulation by 0,7% w/w.
Crypto futures market
The sentiment from the spot market was transferred to the futures market. As of the weekend the crypto futures market was traded significantly lower when compared to the week before. BTC futures were traded lower by some 6% for all maturities. The futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $103.705, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $112.745. This was the highest correction of expectation for the two years since the beginning of this year.
ETH futures also experienced a significant drop on a weekly basis of more than 22% for all maturities. All futures prices dropped below $3K. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year dropped to the level of $2.764, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.970.
Bitcoin probably will peak at around $386,000 in Oct 2025This is the total market cap crypto chart since 2015. Notice there are two lines drawn; one is long term support and the other is long term resistance formed from the last two cycle peaks.
Focusing on the long term resistance line the following are the top cycle dates, Bitcoin market cap, Total Crypto market cap and % Bitcoin of the total market cap at the last two cycle peaks:
Date Bitcoin Mkt Cap Total Crypto Mkt Cap % Bitcoin of Total Cap
12/17/17 $320.6 B $761.74 B 42.0
11/10/21 $1.236 T $3.01 T 41.1
2/9/25 $1.908 T $3.15 T 60.5
10/21/25 $7.66 T $18.46 T 41.5
Notes:
1. Notice the last two cycle peaks Bitcoin peaked it was 41 to 42% of the total Crypto Market Cap.
2. Notice today Bitcoin is 60.5% of the total crypto market cap.
3. Since alt season really hasn't started but is expected to occur eventually before this bull market is over, Bitcoin to fall to 41-42% of total market cap will have to underperform the alt coin total market cap in the next 8.5 months.
4. I'm predicting Oct 2025 for a cycle top since the last two bull market cycles for Bitcoin lasted 35.1 months (1/14/15 to 12/17/17) and 34.8 months (12/15/18 to 11/10/21). 35 months from the start of this bull market (11/21/22) is 10/21/25.
5. Continuing the resistance line forward in time projects $18.46 T for total crypto market cap by 10/21/25. Assuming Bitcoin drops to 41.5% by dominance it will have a $7.66 T market cap by then. $7.66 T / $1.908 T (now) = 4.01 fold. 4.01 fold the current $96,280 Bitcoin price puts the Bitcoin price at about $386,000 by 10/21/25.
Future of CryptocurrencyHello evey one
#TradeWithMky @TradeWithMky is a channel for all crypto community
Iranian people shown they are activest people in this community
consider this is not finantial advise its my analysis based on this chart and Chart pattern
iF price passed range zone we can expect continue bullish movement to at least 4T market cap
but i guess its not end and market could eseasly go upper than 4.5 T soon to reach 5T
Super Bowl LIXSuper Bowl 59 will kick off at 6:30pm EST at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, the home of the New Orleans Saints. The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will face off at their second Super Bowl in three years on Sunday. There's a lot on the line: the Chiefs could become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, while the Eagles hope to redeem themselves after a nail-biting loss in 2023. Even non-football fans will have plenty to look forward to, from star-studded commercials to a halftime show.
Long crypto trade idea:
1)
buy spot of 20 different cryptos basket
leg in each hour until bullish reversal is clear
then set stop loss 0%
set take profit +10%
2)
leg in to leveraged long
start at 5x leverage
dial up to 10x leverage
set stop loss at 0%
set take profit at +100%
Leave The World Behind - BIG CRASH IS NOWGet Out Before it's too late.
This can't continue.
I don't see any more pump. The Institutions are liquidating their wallets.
Retailers are greedy.
Global Open interest is heated like a virtual volcano.
I think it's time for a Hard RESET.
Enjoy.
Thank You Trading View for the world's best platform ever.
ALOHA
Important time Interval - #BTCAnalyzing Total Market Cap - Key Level at $3T
As observed, the total market cap is currently interacting with significant support at the $3T, which aligns with key structural and Fibonacci levels. Staying above this resistance will continue the bullish momentum while breaking it might indicate further consolidation or a retest of lower supports.
Monitor 45-degree (up-yellow angle), volume, and RSI divergence for potential confirmation of the next move.
#TotalMarketCap #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis"
Total Crypto Market CapHello and greetings to dear traders,
I am proud to share with you the thorough analysis I have conducted on the Total Crypto Market. This weekly analysis not only represents a clear target for the future but also effectively outlines trend lines and buying zones on the chart.
Let me clarify the principles of this analysis by posing a few questions and providing clear answers:
Can the market experience a new peak before reaching the buying targets?
Yes, it is possible. However, I am determined to enter the market with an ideal purchasing strategy, rather than being a bystander with an empty pocket due to emotional buying at the end of market corrections.
Is it possible for the price to drop below our buying ranges?
Yes, this is a possibility. However, by using an appropriate strategy and obtaining confirmations from market signals, similar to last time, we can achieve desirable entries.
Risk Disclosure:
This analysis is provided as guidance and general information and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Engaging in any trading in financial markets involves risk and may result in the loss of your capital. Therefore, it is recommended that you conduct the necessary research before any investment and be aware that investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks.
Wishing you all the success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street trading Center (Forex)
Dear friends and valued companions, I apologize for using a personal logo and for my lack of awareness in this regard. In the previous analysis, the esteemed TradingView moderators hid my analysis from public view, and I was compelled to revise it. Now, with the improvements I have made, I am resending this analysis to you. I sincerely thank the TradingView community and all traders.
Total - Developing Some Market StructureWe are seeing the first signs of some market structure forming after the brutal dip on the weekend. Short term momentum still leans slightly to the bearish side, but mid-long term is still looking very very good.
Now onto the LTF structure. For the total crypto marketcap we see a descending triangle forming. More likely than not these patterns break to the downside, but since everything has been so low maybe this becomes a fakeout pattern and reverse us to the upside.
Either way I have targets outlined for both scenarios.
For the downside target: The 3.1T level is our current support. If we start closing candles below those level it is likely to see outflows of $100-150B and you would want to see bull hold the $2.95-3T level.
For the breakout target: Here there are two measured moves. Of you draw from the mouth of the triangle it would give us a breakout target of $3.33-3.35T which would also be our green trendline that has been so important for so long. If you use a flag extension target that would give us a breakout move of around $3.5T.
This is a 2H pattern so watch for either a break of our downwards sloping resistance line or a break of our $3.1T support level.
TOTAL Cryptocurrencies: Global Market Indicator and AnalysisAccording to my theory, we are witnessing a crypto market growth cycle with a growth phase of 35 months and a correction phase of 13 weeks. I expect the crypto market to continue to grow until November 1, 2025, driven by the arrival of large investment funds and corporations behind blockchain technology as well as tokenization. The RWA sector is at a nascent stage and trillions of assets will be tokenized and used for fast transactions, ease of transfers, 24-hour accessibility and transparency. In addition, the arrival of institutional investors via ETFs should not be overlooked. Today, BlackRock owns over 470k BINANCE:BTCUSDT and is unlikely to stop. BYBIT:ETHUSDT is undervalued, BINANCE:SOLUSDT shows the very availability of cryptocurrency for everyone on the planet. Memesession is actually testing the Solana network for its suitability for massadoption. Staying bearish regarding the cryptocurrency market looks like ignoring the internet in the early 2000s. Focus on the RWA direction, a large number of projects are about to show parabolic growth!
Horban Brothers.
The failure of the POS (Proof of Stake) mechanismHave you noticed that many altcoin projects older than three years are bleeding to death? The total market cap of altcoins is also declining significantly.
One possible reason for this could be the failure of the Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism.
Bitcoin was created with a deflationary system called Proof of Work (PoW), which ensures that the number of coins generated decreases over time, creating scarcity and a deflationary economy. The rewards are fixed through a public mathematical formula, allowing future supply to be anticipated. The reduction in the number of coins mined daily is called the halving, which occurs every four years for Bitcoin.
However, over the last four years, leftist and democratic political forces pushed the crypto industry to adopt a less energy-intensive system. This led to the creation of the PoS mechanism.
How PoS Works
Proof of Stake generates rewards based on the amount of cryptocurrency staked. The percentage of rewards allocated each month is determined by governance votes, which are controlled by individuals or entities meeting a certain staking threshold. This system eliminates the need for computational power to mint new coins and encourages holders to stake their tokens rather than sell them on the market.
Today, most of the top 100 Layer-1 blockchains rely on PoS. For example, the entire Cosmos ( NASDAQ:ATOM ) ecosystem uses PoS, as do projects like CRYPTOCAP:INJ , LSE:TIA , NYSE:FET , NYSE:SEI , and even $ETH.
The Problem with PoS
Unfortunately, this technology is showing its limitations, and as a result, many PoS-powered blockchains are struggling.
Key Issues:
Inflationary Nature:
PoS systems are inherently inflationary. As the number of staked tokens increases over time, the staking rewards also grow. Unlike PoW systems like Bitcoin, which create scarcity through halving events, PoS fails to do so, resulting in the opposite effect—oversupply.
Self-serving Governance:
Staking rewards are determined by governance votes cast by those who hold and stake the tokens. These participants have little incentive to vote for lower rewards, as it would reduce their income. This creates a system where whales and early adopters accumulate large amounts of tokens, benefiting from monthly rewards and becoming "retired" contributors to the ecosystem.
Bad for Retail Investors:
Retail investors suffer the most under PoS systems. The total supply of tokens increases logarithmically over time, causing the price of the coin to decline. Initially, the excitement around the project’s growth may offset this inflation, especially during the early stages of token generation events (TGEs) and favorable tokenomics. However, as staking rewards continue to mint new tokens, platforms like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko fail to account for the rising supply, leading to hidden inflation.
Why These Projects Are Bleeding
This inflationary pressure, regardless of a project’s quality, is why many PoS projects are in decline. Holding these tokens long-term is a disastrous decision for retail investors. They are unknowingly holding coins that suffer from far higher inflation than is visible, creating a deceptive and exploitative system that slowly drains value from their holdings.
The Solution
The solution to this problem would be to remove governance-based reward decisions and implement a fixed annual reduction in staking APY (Annual Percentage Yield), similar to Bitcoin's halving mechanism. This would ensure that the supply is predictable, and coin generation becomes deflationary over time.
The Current Reality
Unfortunately, many PoS projects appear content to continue bleeding value from their coins. As a result, it’s advisable not to hold PoS projects for more than three years. The older the project, the more inflationary the PoS system becomes.
TOTAL DAILY The flash crash of Monday took TOTAL all the way down under the previous cycles high and tapped the 1D 200 EMA before reacting well to move price between the DAILY RESISTANCE & SUPPORT.
For me I still think crypto has space to grow, seasonality tells us the first quarter of a bullrun year is great in terms of returns with a tail off in Q2-3, coupled with the US administration being pro crypto and the looming strategic reserve getting closer, ETFs relentlessly buying Bitcoin, same with MicroStrategy.
The two entry options for me are when the wick gets filled and a reclaims the '21 ATH once again, that would sweep the demand zone and take out a lot of stop losses before targeting the DAILY RESISTANCE and the HIGHS.
Another entry would have to be a reclaim of the DAILY RESISTANCE, I would be worried that the wick still needs filling but maybe it would be during the bear market. For that reason a close SL would be useful.
The Largest Crypto Liquidation Ever!Crypto's Largest Liquidation Event: Has the Market Found Its Bottom?
The recent liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market has made history as the largest ever recorded. Such an occurrence strongly suggests that the market may have reached its bottom. However, if past cycles are any indication—such as the recoveries observed in 2020 and 2022—it typically takes more than two months for a full rebound to materialize.
Historical Precedents and Market Recovery
Looking at historical events, the crypto market has shown resilience time and again, but recoveries have never been immediate. Take, for example, the COVID-19 crash of March 2020, the Luna collapse in 2022, and the FTX fallout later that same year. Each of these events led to significant downturns, followed by prolonged recovery periods before prices stabilized and resumed an uptrend.
Given this, it's crucial to manage expectations. While some investors may hope for a rapid V-shaped recovery, history suggests that most altcoins are unlikely to revisit their December highs within the next couple of months, if not longer. Market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions all play a role in shaping the recovery trajectory.
The Importance of Patience and Realistic Expectations
Crypto investors often seek quick rebounds, but expecting an immediate bounce back within days is unrealistic. If those expectations aren’t met, it could lead to unnecessary frustration and poor trading decisions. Even in the rare cases of a swift V-shaped recovery, such as the one seen in 2020, the market still took several weeks to regain lost ground, with multiple dips along the way.
For those navigating the current market conditions, patience remains key. Strategic, long-term thinking will likely yield better results than reactive, short-term trading. While it would be a welcome surprise if the market defied historical patterns and rebounded sooner than expected, it’s wise to prepare for a more extended consolidation phase before a sustainable uptrend emerges.
Final Thoughts
Although the largest liquidation event in crypto history may indicate that the market has bottomed out, historical data suggests that recovery will not be immediate. Investors should brace for a potential multi-month recovery period before prices begin a sustained upward movement. Managing expectations, maintaining patience, and taking a long-term approach are essential strategies for navigating the current market landscape.
Crypto Market Is Still Bullish Despite A New Sell-OffCrypto market faced some deeper decline, but still looks like a complex W-X-Y correction in wave 4 within a bullish trend for wave 5. A drop came from a stock market slowdown due to end of the month flows last week on Friday and due to US tariffs. However, now that US tariffs for Mexico and Canada are delayed, we can see a strong stabilization and recovery, which can be an indication for a bullish continuation within a new five-wave bullish cycle for wave 5, at least for the first half of 2025.