TOTAL trade ideas
MARKETS week ahead: February 23 – March 1Last week in the news
There are currently several words which shape investors sentiment, including trade tariffs, inflation, slower economic growth. All three words are active for come time, which impact market moves during the previous week. Fears of inflation, after a release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday, pushed the US equities strongly toward the downside. The S&P 500 dropped by 1,7% within a day, after reaching the new all time highest level. The index closed the week at the level of 6. 013. Investors were looking more at the safe-haven assets, in which sense, the price of gold again reached the new highest level at 2.954, while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark sharply dropped to the level of 4,43%. The crypto market was a bit traded aside, where BTC continues to move within a channel between $ 96K-$ 98K levels.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final for February was the one that shook the markets. Surprisingly lower data from estimated, were the ones which supported investors fears from future inflation. The Index level of 64,7 was lower from expected 67,8. On the other hand, inflation expectation data were the ones that surprised investors. Namely, US consumers are expecting inflation at the levels of 4,3%, while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5% from 3,2% posted during previous releases. Investors were not at all happy with such inflation development, not even as an expectation, which showed by a significant drop in US equity indexes.
A lot of news attention during the previous week was on the earnings report of Berkshire Hathaway. The most famous investor on the market, Warren Buffet had stockpiled more cash for another quarter through sale of stocks. As per reports, its cash position currently stands at $334B. Regardless of this move, the Buffet noted that Berkshire Hathaway will always prefer stocks over cash, without too much further explanation. During his previous comments, he sort of criticized the market, calling it too expensive at this moment and only a few buying opportunities. Nevertheless, shares of Berkshire Hathaway continue to gain in value, adding 5% from the start of this year. At the same time, Reuters reported that Buffets company will most probably increase stake in five Japanese trading houses, which he currently holds in portfolio, including Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo.
As of the week-end a news hit the market that crypto exchanger Bybit was under a huge cyber attack, where estimated, $1,5 billion worth of ether was stolen. As news is reporting, an entity from North Korea was suspected. The stolen coins were then transferred into BTC. Although Bybit reacted promptly, still, the exchanger faced significant withdrawal requests from its clients.
Crypto market cap
There was another volatile week on the crypto market. After significant gains two weeks ago, the previous week was in a mood of corrections. The crypto coins were traded in a mixed manner. There were almost equal numbers of both coins which finished the week in red and in green. However, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly level, losing total $30B in value. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to the level of $239B on a daily basis, from $170B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -2%, with $80B outflow of funds.
Despite the both winners and losers during the week, still, the crypto market ended the week with a total loss of $30B on a weekly basis. The coin with highest participation, BTC, was traded modestly down by 0,9%, losing total $17B in value. On the opposite side was ETH, who managed to gain $ 10B in value, increasing it by 3,2% w/w. Other significant movers in nominal terms were XRP, which was traded down by 6%, dropping its market cap by $9,8B. Solana was also traded lower, dropping by 10,7% w/w or $10,1B. Another coins with significant drop was DOGE, who managed to decrease its cap by $ 4B or 9,9%. Among gainers Maker should be especially mentioned, as this coin increased its value by 55% within a single week. At the same time, this coin increased the number of its coins in circulation by 1,9%. Several of other weekly winners were ZCash, with a surge of 7,9% w/w, while a portion of other smaller altcoins managed to gain below 1% on a weekly level.
When coins in circulation are in question, Maker was already mentioned with its increase of 1,9%. At the same time, ZCash decreased its circulating coins by 2,7%. Filecoin added 0,8% of new coins to the market, while IOTAs increase was 0,6%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was traded lower compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures were traded around 3% lower, while ETH futures ended the week around 4% lower.
BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $101.875, and those maturing a year later at the level of $111.380. Despite the drop, it is still positive that investors are perceiving the BTC price at levels higher from $100K in the future period.
ETH futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at the level of $2.807, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the trading week at $3.017.
TOTAL MARKET CHART UPDATE !!The chart shows the total cryptocurrency market capitalization trend. It shows a range-bound movement within parallel lines, indicating potential resistance and support levels.
Here are some key points you may find useful:
Current market capitalization: approximately $3.13 trillion.
Resistance and support: The upper and lower lines indicate levels where the price has historically reversed.
Trend analysis: The price seems to be consolidating, which could lead to a breakout or breakdown.
Keep an eye on the market to see if it breaks out of this range!
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bearish Divergence?I hope I’m wrong and I hope this never happens, but the weekly RSI for now is smelling like a bearish divergence, exactly what happened last bull market before the market crash. When price makes higher highs, but RSI prints lower highs, it usually means buyers are leaving the market and sellers are taking over. Of course, this bearish divergence is not a bearish divergence until it happens and the market crashes. Price may well reverse here and the market may continue its bullish path, but if history was to rhyme, then this structure is truly scaring me and making me nervous, because if it happens to be a bearish divergence, hundreds of millions of people around the world are gonna get slaughtered by the market. I really want to ignore this signal, but I can’t. Despite seeing this scary structure I’m gonna hold for now, to see how things play out.
Weekly bull flagThis is such a beautiful sight. A massive bull flag on the total CMC chart on the weekly timeframe. I hope this pattern plays out it would be a face melting blast to 4.5 trillion in total market cap for all of crypto. S move of 44% and it could be a quick one. Bull flags break up about 2/3s of the time. NFA
Where is ALT season ? Narket Cap Data shows clear direction
It is a question that has been asked for a while now.
What on earth has happened to the Fabled ALT Season ? The Time of Quick and Fast earnings on ALT coins.
Market Cap data shows us very clearly how Bitcoin alone is responsible for the lack of ALT Season so far.
In summery we see that, using the Market Cap charts, the recent pull backs since December 2024, Bitcoin has pulled back a lot less than the others and that ETH is a big losser here also.
Pull back %'s in Crypto Market Caps
TOTAL = - 15.51%
TOTAL 2 = -25.98 % ( Excluding BTC )
TOTAL 3 = -22.61 % ( Excluding BTC % ETH )
OTHERS = - 40.57% ( Top 125 coins minus top 10 by Dominacne )
We can see from the difference between the TOTAL 2 and TOTAL 3 charts how ETH is responsible for a 3% Drop in the TOTAL market cap ...Thats a Big amount for one single coin.
We can also see how the Biggest Loosers so far this cycle are the Mid Cap ALT coins.
The Big question now is, will They recover and will we get an ALT Season ?
Lets Look at the charts to see where we are
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap
PA is above Support, back in the Green zone and with room to move before resistance needs to be broken
TOTAL 2 Crypto Market Cap
In trouble. Below Resistance in two places. There is currently a push up and PA is about to hit that line od resistance. We will know in the next few days the outcome of this.
ETH needs to show strength here to help support the idea of an ALT Season
TOTAL 3 Crypto Market Cap
The ALTS themselves are in an area that has Support below but are about to hit resistance. However, there is strength there as we can see PA broke out of the rannge at one point but the market pulled back and took them with it. this chart shows us ALL the Alts and is very likely supported by the Huge impact of the Meme craze and Solana. As was mentioned above, This was a smaller pullback than the ETH & ALT chart above.
OTHERS Crypto Market Cap
This is the chart that surprises me the most.
The well know Mid Cap Alts took the biggest hit since December 2024 - Nearly double the losses of the Total 3 ALT market - Could this also be showing us that ALTS on the ETH network were liable to bigger losses. ? Coins like AVAX, LINK etc
PA here has just bounced off support but has run straight into resistance. This really Needs to break through as Sentiment needs to be improved.
But the BIGGEST thing that needs to break, to allow an ALT SEASON is of course, Bitcoin Dominance. BTC.D
ALT seasons are in the times after Bitcoin Halving when BTC Dominance Drops and money flowed into ALTS>
But these days, Corporation and institutions are buying Bitcoin and HOLDING, as are the sensible little people like you and me. You can see this Very clearly on the chart - BTC.D just cntinues to climb.
So where is the money for ALT season going to come from ?
The proposed increase of ETF's on ALT coins could push this in a very selected way. i.e. the proposed Litecoin ( THE original ALT COIN ) has been trying to push the price of LTC higher.
XRP is another
But this is NOT the ALT Season we all expereinced in previous cycles and, infact, if you look close, you will see that ALT season has been getting smaller and smaller.
It was once said that Crpyto was a bubble that Will burst like the Dot Com bubble........and I think we may see this......the rubbish ALT coins falling away and the BTC and utility ALTs coming through.
But no ALT Season as we once knew...........OR WILL TRUMP MAKE IT HAPPEN ?
Only time will tell
Crypto Market Is Trying To Resume Its Bullish TrendBitcoin remains under intraday bullish pressure with room for more gains, especially if we consider that NASDAQ100 is still pointing higher. So, seems like risk-on sentiment is still here and we should be aware of a bigger recovery in the Crypto market, even because of the USdollar that shows strong bearish momentum. Crypto TOTAL market cap chart looks to have a completed wave (2) correction and it's actually just about to break channel resistance line which confirms that wave (3) is in progress. Can ALTcoins follow Bitcoin soon?
Crypto Total Market Cap Analysis – The Final Ride is ComingMarket Context
The chart represents the Total Crypto Market Cap (CRYPTOCAP) on a 1W timeframe.
Historical price action shows cyclical bull and bear market trends driven by market sentiment, liquidity cycles, and macroeconomic factors.
A similar pattern to 2020’s breakout is forming, suggesting a potential parabolic rally ahead.
Current Market Position
We're here: The chart marks the current phase as a consolidation after a strong upward move.
A similar pause and accumulation phase occurred in late 2020 before the explosive 2021 bull run.
Market cap is hovering around $3.19T, forming a temporary resistance zone within the red-circled area.
Key Technical Indicators
Higher Lows & Higher Highs: A bullish structure remains intact.
Breakout Setup: Price consolidating near resistance often precedes a strong continuation.
Potential Target: The projected move suggests a rally towards $5.75T+ based on historical patterns.
Market Sentiment & Catalysts
Upcoming Bitcoin Halving (2024-2025): Historically sparks massive inflows into the crypto market.
ETF Approvals & Institutional Demand: Driving liquidity and mainstream adoption.
AI & Blockchain Innovation: Continued growth in real-world use cases enhances long-term fundamentals.
Crypto Total Market Cap Consolidation: Imminent Breakout Ahead?Key Observations:
1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
The price is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows.
A breakout in either direction is imminent.
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA 200):
The 200-period EMA is at 3.26T, currently acting as resistance.
A breakout above this level could indicate a bullish trend continuation.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14):
Current RSI: 49.34, slightly below the neutral 50 level.
This suggests neutral momentum, with no clear overbought/oversold signals.
A move above 55-60 could indicate increasing bullish momentum.
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout:
If TOTAL breaks above the triangle resistance and EMA 200, the next targets could be 3.3T - 3.5T.
Confirmation requires high volume and RSI above 55.
2. Bearish Breakdown:
A break below the triangle support could push TOTAL toward 3.0T or lower.
RSI dropping below 40 would confirm bearish momentum.
Conclusion:
The market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a breakout. Watch for volume confirmation and EMA 200 reaction to determine the next move.
MARKETS week ahead: February 17 – 23Last week in the news
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in front of the US Congress, US inflation data in January and Retail Sales were the main topics which shaped the market sentiment during the previous week. The US Dollar lost some of its strength, but the price of Gold also eased by 1% at Friday's trading season, following the profit-taking. The positive sentiment on the US equity markets was back, where S&P 500 almost reached its all time highest level, ending the week at 6.114. The US Treasury yields reacted on January inflation data and significant drop in retail sales in January, bringing down the 10Y Treasury yields toward the 4,47%. Many concerns of investors put aside the crypto market, where since the beginning of February BTC continues to trade in a channel between the $ 98K and $95K.
At the beginning of the previous week markets were closely watching Fed Chair Powells testimony in front of the US congress. The key takeaways from a two days Congressional hearing include points that Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and that the Fed's policy will not be impacted by the US Administration, alluding to a question regarding US President request for immediate cut of interest rates. Generally, there was no new significant information which was not previously communicated with the public. As for macro data during the previous week, the US January inflation data surprised markets with a 0,5% increase for the month, higher from forecasted 0,3%. The PPI also rose 0,4% in January, again higher from market estimate. Still, the retail sales of -0,9% improved market mood, with a figure much higher from market estimate of -0,1%. This was a signal that the current inflation level might not impact too much Fed's decisions over future course of interest rates.
During the previous week markets were talking about the final payout of the fallen crypto exchange FTX during the week ahead. This represents a part of FTX restructuring program, where first in line will be claims up to $50.000. Analysts are providing their assumption over its potential impact on crypto markets and specific tokens, however, there are also those who anticipate that this payout will not have a significant impact on the price of major crypto coins.
A lot of news covered the bid of Elon Musk for purchase of Open AI. He offered a figure of $97,4 billion for shares of Open AI in case that this company stays non-profitable. The latest news published by Reuters on Friday states that OpenAI rejected the bid from Elon Musk, noting that the company is not for sale and that any future bid will be also rejected.
Crypto market cap
After almost three consecutive weeks in red, the crypto market finally ended the week in green. However, it could be noted that the volatility with altcoins run at relatively higher levels during the past few weeks. At the same time, BTC remained volatile within the channel between levels of $ 98K and $95K from the beginning of February. Whether the final break is ahead is about to be seen, still, the total crypto market capitalization managed to recover a bit during the previous week, but it still holds in a -2% negative territory from the beginning of this year. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization increased by 2% on a weekly basis, adding $ 70B to the total market cap. Daily trading volumes dropped a bit from the week earlier, to the level of $170B on a daily basis. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -2%, with $50B outflow of funds.
It was a volatile week, but with a positive end. BTC gained $ 23B on a weekly basis increasing its cap by 1,2%. ETH also had a modest increase in capitalization of almost $ 8B or 2,5%. Altcoins were the ones which drove market capitalization to the higher grounds. DOGE was traded higher by 9%, adding more than $ 3B to its market cap, same as ADA, which increased its value by 12,7%. This week BNB managed to add almost $ 5B to its market cap, increasing it by 5,4%. Among higher gainers was for one more time XRP, with an astonishing increase in market cap of $ 20B or 14,5%. Litecoin should be mentioned as the coin had a very good week, where it added $ 2B to its market cap, which was an increase of 25,5%. The majority of other altcoins managed to add up to 10% to their market value.
When it comes to circulating coins, it was one of relatively calmer weeks. Tether added 0,2% of new coins to the market, increasing by this percentage its market capitalization. Polkadot decreased the number of coins on the market by 0,4%, while Filecoin had an increase of 0,6%. The majority of other coins had an increase of 0,1% or less of their coins on the market.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures had finally one green trading week. BTC futures were higher by around 1,6% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at the price of $105.185, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $114.370.
ETH futures had a higher rebound of approximately 5,4% for all maturities. In this sense, December 2025 was closed at the level of $2.914, and maturities in December 2026 were last traded at $3.131. It is positive that the ETH long term futures were back for one more time at levels above the $3K.
Beware of the 5th Wave DownCRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Beware of the 5th wave down…
Back in August 2024 the final 5th wave down was a signal that the correction was over. We found support at the 0:1.618 reverse fib retracement.
TOTAL appears to be demonstrating the same cause building event for another 5th wave down since we topped at 3.73T in December.
If this is the case, we may be looking for support at the 0:1.618 reverse fib retracement plotted at the green rectangle.
Trade with caution and good luck!
TOTAL - Inverted Creek GW FailureThis current fractal appears to be a limp and distributive Inverted Creek (Wyckoff), with a whipsawing Golden Window failure (0.618-0.786).
The upper pivot printed in an area of higher liquidity within the retracement Golden Window and beyond the Supply Trendline.
So there is double the liquidity in that area ; lots of traders with their stop losses / liquidations.
This makes it an attractive point of reversal for market makers, and so there is higher probability that this area might capture a high time frame pivot.
The high volatility of the whipsaw is the price action that signals that a significant momentum shift may have passed.
The drawn projection is just an illustration, but it could go something like this.
In a nutshell; this is a bearish look.
TOTAL is the chart with dominant ratios and historically it bottoms in the retracement Golden Window following a selling climax.
So if that happens again, it will be the ideal dip buy territory.
Not advice.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast Based on Market Cap and BTC DominanBitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast Based on Market Cap and BTC Dominance
If the total market capitalization decreases to $2.77 trillion and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) drops to 58%, then the price of Bitcoin would be approximately $84,000. This aligns with previous analyses where I discussed the potential for BTC to adjust within the GETTEX:82K -$85k range.
To calculate the price of Bitcoin (BTC) when the total market capitalization decreases to $2.77 trillion and BTC Dominance (BTC.D) decreases to 58%, we use the following formulas:
BTC Price Formula:
BTC Price = (BTC Market Cap) / (Total BTC Supply)
Calculating BTC Market Cap:
BTC Market Cap = (Total Market Cap) × (BTC Dominance / 100)
Given the data provided:
Total Market Cap = $2.77 trillion
BTC Dominance = 58%
BTC Price Calculation:
To calculate the price of BTC, we need the current total supply of BTC, which is approximately 19 million BTC (you may confirm the exact figure at the time of calculation).
Steps:
Calculate BTC Market Cap:
BTC Market Cap = 2.77 trillion × 0.58 = $1.6086 trillion
Calculate BTC Price:
BTC Price = $1.6086 trillion / 19 million BTC ≈ $84,526.3
Thus, the price of BTC would be approximately $84,526 if the total market cap drops to $2.77 trillion and BTC Dominance reaches 58%, assuming a circulating supply of 19 million BTC.
This conclusion aligns with previous assessments, indicating that Bitcoin could be adjusting toward the GETTEX:82K -$85k range.
Total , about to explode Candles tapping ATH atm which is a sign of imminent rebound and fly , times running out and we have to lit the fire soon , anywhere between around 10 trillion to couple more would be a precious load off zone , tbh holding right above ATH with the nasty alts situation feels weird for me too but let’s hope mid range caps start getting back soon .
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP READY TO FIRE📊 Price Action & Trend Analysis
Analyzing market trends using price action, key support/resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to identify high-probability trade setups.
Always follow the trend and manage risk wisely!
Price Action Analysis Interprets Market Movements Using Patterns And Trends On Price Charts.
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TOTAL2: When I’ll Deploy My Stables Back Into the MarketTiming the market perfectly is impossible, but using TOTAL2 and RSI, we can identify high-probability opportunities. Here’s my approach for the coming years.
I bought during the last dip, but my exposure is still less than what I sold before the crash. Here’s why.
Key Signals for Tops & Bottoms
RSI Patterns:
- Market Tops: Weekly RSI above 85 signals overheated conditions but does not always lead to an immediate reversal.
- Market Bottoms: Weekly RSI near 30 has historically marked strong accumulation zones.
- In the last seven years, RSI hit 30 only twice—2018 and 2022. I expect this level again within the next 24 months.
My plan:
I will deploy capital heavily when RSI approaches 30 again, securing long-term positions.
TOTAL 2 Scenarios: What Comes Next?
Scenario 1: Price Discovery
- If TOTAL 2 flips 2021 highs, ETH and altcoins will likely reach new all-time highs.
- Weekly RSI could exceed 85, potentially reaching 95, indicating extreme overbought conditions.
- I will take profits aggressively at this stage while also using a DCA strategy, as precise timing is never certain.
Scenario 2: Lower Highs Persist
- If RSI fails to reach overbought levels, this cycle may be weaker than expected.
- The 50 RSI zone is critical—if it aligns with oversold conditions on daily or 3-day RSI, it may present a selective buying opportunity.
- I have already taken partial profits since November 2024 to manage risk in case of this scenario.
Scenario 3: RSI Drop to 30
- This scenario appears likely within the next 24 months and would mark a bear market low.
- If BTC, ETH, and TOTAL 2 all hit 30 RSI, I will fully deploy stables with high conviction, considering it a generational buying opportunity.
Final Thoughts
Summary: I will increase exposure once RSI confirms strong long-term buy zones, but I am managing risk in the meantime.
What’s your take? Do you expect RSI to revisit 30?
$TOTAL Close Lackluster - What This MeansCrypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap closes another day in its lower range $3.1T, failing to break the 9DEMA.
The TOTAL chart is not given enough credit because most do not understand it.
It’s best used to let us know how much money is sloshing around from narrative to narrative.
Once it definitively breaks that $3.7T range, then a rising tide raises all ships and it's ALTSEASON folks 🚀
$TOTAL potential bounce👀 It has been exactly one week since we witnessed the largest liquidation of traders in crypto history, while altcoins rapidly plunged to new lows. 📉
Looking at the Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization, last week was mostly a phase of accumulation/consolidation above the range low. 〰️
Overall, the current picture doesn’t look bad, and we have a good chance of seeing growth in the near future. 🧐