Valuating BTC $461,265 & ETH $38,869 in 2024-25 (USD MODEL)
People pricing the market based on "Market Cap" on a new asset class that cannot be valued properly by a "Market Cap" need to check their models, I'm even more convinced something big will happen in 2024 as most Twitter comments (I've read thousands) are waiting for a 2025 (bull market) and think its completely out of the possibilities for the prices I have mentioned.
Cboe and institutions have expressed interest in Ethereum, and it's the only reason why I gave it a second look, even though I think the Ethereum Foundation is clueless. They're not going to be in control of Ethereum once they step in. My theory here is they don't want to pay to recreate a 'blockchain community'; they want to simply outright purchase Ethereum while it's cheap.
The current USDT market cap serves as a great proxy for assessing how much money can move the market. USDT is unique in that it's the only asset to which you can apply a proxy market cap, given its $1 = $1 circulating supply.
$17,362 billion or $17.36 trillion is the amount deposited in commercial banks in the USA. When comparing stable coins to bank deposits, the number varies, being 190-205 times larger than USDT. Yes, this is specific to commercial banking, highlighting that Tether (USDT) is much smaller than what many people perceive as 'real money' in the broader world of finance.
Let's run a simulation: once Spot ETFs are launched, and people participate in futures, it opens the doors for real banking and institutional money to access assets like BTC and ETH. To reach my price targets, a simple 9.85x increase in the money within this asset class is needed.
What does this indicate for the market caps of these assets?
Bitcoin: $9.0 trillion
Ethereum: $4.7 trillion
So, ultimately, Bitcoin will surpass in size, but in terms of performance, Ethereum has a chance to lead.
But is it impossible? Well, how does Bitcoin have a market cap shy of a trillion when there's less than 100 billion in stable coins? Additionally, not all of this is invested in Bitcoin. Indeed, market cap is a terrible metric, we still have retail money that moved Bitcoin by $10,000 on the thought of a Spot ETF approval.
If the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved before January 11, it's going to spark a FOMO rally from institutions, leading to inflows of potentially billions per week, and even billions per day
In addition to this, institutions will launch global marketing campaigns, and there will be daily TV reports on this asset class. Once the Spot ETF door opens to allow flows into this, you better have prepared your positionsโI already have.
Larry Fink will talk about these assets but won't do internal & external marketing why?
he slipped up saying "crypto" is a flight to safety in October meaning he has done the same research and decided its go time.
hundreds > thousands โ
2010-2012
thousands > millions โ
2015-2016
millions > billions โ
2017-2019
billions > trillions โ 2023-2025
TOTAL2 trade ideas
Total 2 on 1W Chart is BullishTotal 2
We have:
abcd model
Crab model
The indicators on the weekly say it is rising, and God knows best, but we need a close above
B to confirm this blue D
X to confirm this green D
If the closing occurs, there is a high probability that we will close above the main trend, God willing
Or we may see a retest on the volume areas
This scenario is currently on the table, but in general the positivity is great, God willing
On 3d and 1d charts, the rise and bump were completed, so we only need to confirm the closure, otherwise we will see a correction like what we mentioned eariler
Time intervals to look at are:
Week of November 27
Week of January 29
All the best insha Allah!
"Analyzing the Total Crypto Market's Breakout and Support Shift"Being a contrarian thinker, I often hold opinions that differ from the mainstream, whether it pertains to stocks or cryptocurrencies. I find myself venturing down an unconventional path, distinct from the majority.
The provided weekly chart depicts the total cryptocurrency market, excluding Bitcoin. Here are some key observations:
Price action has successfully broken free from a resistant trend line that had persisted for two years. This indicates a significant shift in market dynamics.
Furthermore, this former resistance has now transformed into a confirmed support level, a development that underscores the potential for continued positive momentum.
The mention of "10x" likely refers to a significant increase in value attributed to a wedge breakout. Additionally, the term "flag pole" suggests that the market's peak can be projected following the breach of previous resistance levels, akin to the early stages of the 2021 bull market.
However, it's important to exercise caution and remember that this upward trend may not apply uniformly to all alternative tokens (alt-tokens). In contrast to the past, where a broad approach could yield success, the current market demands selectivity. Therefore, it's crucial to make well-informed choices when navigating the market.
Regarding the possibility of further market corrections, while it is technically feasible, it is not deemed likely based on the presented analysis.
In summary, the analysis emphasizes the value of contrarian thinking and suggests a promising outlook for the cryptocurrency market, albeit with a need for discerning and selective investment strategies.
In the daily time frame, the total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies (often referred to as "TOTAL2") is currently in the process of breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, this breakout suggests the potential for a 50% rebound in the market's overall value, as dictated by the symmetrical triangle pattern. Symmetrical triangles are typically seen as continuation patterns, and their breakouts often signal the possibility of a significant price movement in the direction of the breakout. Therefore, the current breakout from the symmetrical triangle is being interpreted as a signal that the market's total capitalization may increase by approximately 50%. However, as with any technical analysis, it's important to consider other factors and perform comprehensive research before making trading decisions.
This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it.
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
Altseason soon according to ETH/BTCComparing ETH/BTC (left) to TOTAL2 (right)(All cryptos excluding BTC) usually gives us a good idea of when to expect an altseason.
ETH/BTC is right now testing a trendline of support (orange) that has called every low (of the ETH/BTC pair) since 2017.
The gains we have seen from this pair since testing our trendline of support has lead to a 2,044%, 40%, 75%, 103%, and 290% pump respectively.
Also, the RSI for the ETH/BTC pair is oversold on the weekly (bottom green circles). This has historically indicated a phenomenal opportunity to buy.
Taking those key moments from the ETH/BTC chart and plotting them on the TOTAL2 chart shows us that we have seen a significant growth in marketcap after these periods. These moments are indicated with a green arrow in the chart. These periods have lead to a marketcap growth of 82,600%, 28%, 122%, 151%, and 753%.
Looking at our RSI we are at a key resistance level on the weekly (red line) around a 62. If/when we are able to get above we should see a huge growth in the marketcap of many altcoins.
๐Bull Market Dynamic | Bitcoin vs Altcoins, Altcoins vs BitcoinHow will the market behave as a whole on the next bullish phase?
Everything will grow in a general sense.
The trend is up, the bias up, the charts will produce higher highs and higher lows.
What about the Altcoins vs Bitcoin (ALTSBTC) pairs?
This section of the market is unique and will have its own phase.
This phase can last for most pairs between 3 and 6 months, they will grow massively during this period regardless of what is happening around them.
Some will grow beyond 6 months to 9 months, 12 months or longer. Allow for some variation to account for all the many pairs.
Will Bitcoin move up together with the Altcoins or will Bitcoin crash while the Altcoins grow?
It depends on the timing... They will move up together but eventually many Altcoins will continue bullish while Bitcoin produces a strong correction/retrace.
First the Altcoins peak, hit a new All-Time High, and then Bitcoin.
Money will be cycling from Bitcoin to Altcoins and from Altcoins to Bitcoin back and forth for a long while before the end of the bullish phase.
We have a long way to go.
Almost an entire year of sustained long-term growth.
The euphoria will happen after the bull-market is over, not before.
Bulls becoming complacent and entering the denial phase will happen after the bull-market, not before.
Right now you can find bears that are still in denial, something similar will happen to the bulls once everything starts to grow but we will have plenty of time for this phase to unravel. All those being caught up in it will be mostly new players that will buy high and buy-in while the market is growing strong.
The lack of experience will be speaking.
This is not bad, it is just part of how the market psychology works. These people will become long-term holders and the market will continue to evolve.
When this bullish wave is all set done, Cryptocurrency will be fully accepted in the mainstream and in the process of being fully integrated into the global financial system, the word "Bitcoin" will be widespread, heard and known all across this flat, hollow plane.
Namaste.
Altcoins targeting possible $7 Trillion 2025According to the Beam Band and an Ascending channel along with fractals we could be in for an alarming $7 trillion dollar target in 2025. With the Bitcoin dominance increasing we may still have some sideways chop with accumulation for a while possibly until the 4th quarter of 2024 until the Bitcoin dominance decides to fall back down into the 30% range. For now we still have time to accumulate our favorite projects moving into the 2025 bull run.
$TOTAL 2Since I know there are a lot of Crypto fans out there, and not all of them are CRYPTOCAP:BTC Maxi's. I present to you the wave counts on the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 ( NASDAQ:ALT Chart).
The key with this chart is the counts, but also the fact that the 2nd wave correction lasted 9 candles, and this current correction is at 9 candles (Remember: Each Candle is 3 months!)
So everything seems right, except for one small thing
We are missing one last wave... :0)
Enjoy!
TOTAL2 is About to Explode!The crypto market is abuzz with a significant phenomenon - the shrinking of the total market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin (BTC). Contrary to what one might expect, this contraction often precedes a major pump in the world of cryptocurrencies, signifying the potential for exciting price movements. ๐๐ฅ
Unpacking the Market Cap Contraction
Market cap contraction is a fascinating occurrence, one that hints at the complex dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. When we talk about the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, we're essentially looking at the collective value of all cryptocurrencies other than the big BTC.
The Compression Effect: A Precursor to a Pump
Why does contraction matter? It's because, in crypto, this phenomenon frequently acts as a precursor to a "pump," a substantial increase in prices. When the total market capitalization of altcoins starts to shrink within a defined range, it often indicates that the market is preparing for a major move.
Anticipating the Upward Surge
For crypto traders and enthusiasts, keeping an eye on this contraction is vital. It suggests that exciting price surges could be on the horizon for the world of altcoins. Such periods of compression often lead to increased trading activity, resulting in significant price movements.
Trading Strategy: Positioning for the Pump
As this exciting market cap contraction unfolds, cryptocurrency traders should consider crafting trading strategies to harness the potential pump. The market dynamics may offer numerous opportunities to capitalize on these upcoming price surges.
Conclusion: Crypto's Dynamic Landscape
Understanding the nuances of the crypto market is crucial, and the market cap contraction phenomenon is one of its fascinating aspects. As we navigate this period of compression, let's remain vigilant, prepared, and ready to embrace the opportunities that a potential pump can bring.
๐ Crypto Insights | ๐ก Trading Strategies | ๐ฐ Market Analysis
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Total 2 (MC excluding BTC) Area Chart confirmed a breakoutMini Altcoin Season is confirmed as we broke above a 8 mo~ resistance and confirmed & flipped the prior resistance into support. This is analyzed through "Area" and not candlestick analysis. Area charts are great to clean up a chart from it's wicks and helps show clear market direction.
When Do alts really start ExplodingThe top chart is Total2 on Weekly, and the bottom chart shows BTC.D.
We can immediately make an observation based on these charts that Total2, i.e. The market cap of all the alts is rising over time and is moving in an upward parallel channel while BTC.D is moving in a descending triangle, which is a bearish pattern.
This tells us that over time the total alts market cap is growing, and they are stealing market cap from BTC.
How can we use this to our advantage?
Using some trendlines we can see what happens to Total2 when the BTC.D tapped the downward sloping trendline, the total2 went parabolic after that.
Using the same trendlines we can project when BTC.D is going to hit the top downward sloping trendline, the chart shows it falls somewhere around December end and first week of Feb.
The BTC.D read at that time should be somewhere around 57 to 58%, this is also in confluence with target from the BTC.D Wyckoff chart I have shared several times past.
The two ellipses in the chart show how I expect BTC.D to move up in the next couple of months.
Also, as evidence here are charts of some of the alts from the previous two bull runs highlighting what happened to them after BTC.D tapped the top trendline. (Which happened on 17th of March and 21st of December.
ETH
ADA
MATIC
There are many others you can look up yourselves.
All this is contingent upon Continuation of BTC Rally beyond 38K in coming couple of months.
๐ Alert! Long-Term Followers & Altcoins vs Bitcoin (ALTSBTC)We are entering a new phase within the current market cycle, we are about to experience something not seen in a long while.
The Altcoins vs Bitcoin (ALTSBTC) pairs are ready to start their growth phase.
This is a major development.
This phase can last between 4-6 months, go really fast and strong and then nothing again for more than two years... It is a very rare opportunity.
There can be some variations though as these things are quite tricky. Market players, market participants, robots can now adapt live to market sentiment, buy & sell orders accumulation, etc.
This market phase is set to start now but it can take another two months to fully develop.
Once it starts going, all the Altcoins will produce a major bullish wave on their BTC pairings, regardless of what is happening in other places. Again, this wave can last up to 6 months. Some pairs will run out of steam much faster while a small few will go for longer.
TOTAL2 is now back above EMA200 weekly as well as EMA21 and EMA10.
We also have a volume breakout and higher lows after a double bottom formation.
I hope you can make the best of this information.
Remember, we are not perfect, there is nothing wrong with making mistakes.
It is better to know that we do err and that's ok.
We learn from mistakes and we grow, we insist and persist and try our best so that each time we can improve, get closer to our desired results.
If something went wrong in the past...
If you made some decisions which you regret; Let it all go...
Learn from it and try again.
We are humans;
Diving living beings and we deserve the best, now and always.
Namaste.
Alts coin season In November Alts coins have broken out of a weekly downtrend with multiple bullish divergences this can signal the start of a alts coin season all BTC needs to do is hold 28K support and we should rally in the alts coins.
I am calling November to be a very profitable month for alts coins.
Not quite there yet...Howdy fellas!
Figured I'd come back and update from the last time I put this chart out there.
I am not playing the bear game here, but if history repeats itself, we still got that big dump before bull run begins.
You might wanna take some profits at the end of this run, as this supposed dump happens in about 9 weeks. Once it starts in drops quick and the move down should be done in 3 weeks.
I can always be wrong friends, so do not run your trades based on my words.
Trade thirsty!
(TOTAL2) Alt coin market cap!!!!!Alt coins are bloody, the market moves based on Demand and Supply
If we go back to our chart, we can see here that there is not much demand in that area, between 600B to 680B.
In our previous data, in that area there was a good upward impulse movement, but now the sellers are more aware.
We can go back to the 400B range of the Alts marketcap, and we can still feel the price drop in some of our altcoins across the market.
be careful when positioning trades on different alt coins. Don't over trade too much. Relax and enjoy different things first to avoid big losses in the market.
PS: 400B support + Moving average 200 ; massive buying zone.
Happy trading!!
#altcoins will have a blood bath?Here' s the #altcoin #totalmarketcap incl. #ethereum . This chart shows , altcoins' market cap have come to the top of the channel. Declination here is will doom altcoin bag holders. Clear breaking channel with volume and weekly closings is the invalidation. I showed the support levels on the chart. The war is not good for markets, a friendly reminder. Always use stop losses. I don' t say buy or sell , always train yourself and this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
ALT SEASON underway and this Support shows you WHY!Looking at this chart, it becomes more obvious how the alt coin market, which broke this Summer above the Bear Cycle's Falling Wedge, is preparing for a big move upwards. The 494.45 level has been tested 4 times and emphatically held on all as it provided rebounds that left large 1W candle wicks behind.
The latest was on September 11 but stopped last week on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W candle close above it opens the way for a Lower Highs test, similar to January 09 2023, which when it broke it started the 2nd part of the rally.
There is only one long-term Resistance left from the Bear Cycle and that is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that is intact since May 09 2022. This what the markets target should be, we estimate a potential contact at 650B, by the end of the year.
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Altcoins will breath againhistory repeats itself , same waves as previous cycle which again i believe altcoins outperform bitcoin by far percent , covid crash delayed wave 9 play but nothing will stop the trend ,theres a green box which i believe its accumulation zone and be break upside soon enough , lets see how it plays .