Altcoin Marketcap - Total 3 - Reject or Blast through?
As you can see in the chart I've plotted a potential movement of Total Market Cap 3
This movement would be possible only if from the demand area that we plotted is that we're going to see a strong price rejection, and break above higher
The break back in May 2022
Many might be trapped in those positions that's why approaching the nearby price we can see strong selling pressure
Initially there might be a squeeze that will make us blast through 583B
If not, then I'm expecting a double top or a strong rejection bearish candle and make us go lower again
What are your thoughts?
Let me know in the comment below!
TOTAL3 trade ideas
Alcoins remain in channelAltcoins remain in the broader rising channel. I did expect more of a washout but it looks like the BTC ETF kept this market afloat. We will get a massive correction before the halving in my opinion, but maybe this is delayed until BTC is closer to 58k, this would lead to a correction down to 40k. For alts the red lines are still possible but this rising channel makes it hard to believe at this point. I added a more realistic flush out line but we might just stay in this channel for a while.
TOTAL3 ABCD points at 2T and fibo to 3.3T caphey hey
To the point, how to trade Total3, well no-one is offering that option, the best would be to buy all the tokens equally (depending on the market cap) but even that is hard.
I am trying to do just that on 5x and 8X effective cross leverage (to all alts,not by market cap, but more or less by non-objective), so far still in accumulation period. Slowly adding, but on the way up or down you can always deleverage, borrow BTC and buy alts (or vice versa), or to sell some alts that have done 30%+ and switch to others.
Now we are in the turning point with BTC, which can dip below 50K or continue to 56.3-57.6K before a correction.
TOTAL3 shows realist TP with ABCD at 2Trilion cap.
lets see how far alt season can bring us.
de
$TOTAL - Excluding BTC & ETH (update)Looks like we have completed the Sign of strength phase, and the back up.
This is where the real expansion starts after leaving the accumulation range. Looking left we can see we are above critical resistance, and historically, its straight up and down from here to target 3 with likely consolidation under the 2.618
Looking at the entire structure here as a broadening accumulation, the major move comes after the recovery the lower inflection level or range low, and would typically be pretty aggressive from here to the top of the broadening formation.
If we see a partial decline there / high and tight consolidation, it could give some validity to targets beyond my extension levels here, which would be a measured move of the bull top, to bear low.
TOTAL 3 ~ Potential Breakout in April 2024TOTAL 3
Altcoins minus BTC & ETH
✅Price has broken above the 200 DSMA
✅Price has broken out of the pennant
⏳126th week is 1st April 2024
Earlier today I shared TOTAL 2 which includes CRYPTOCAP:ETH and suggested that including ETH altseason could initiate from Feb/Mar 2024.
TOTAL 2 breaking out ahead of TOTAL 3 makes a lot of sense as this is what has happened in prior cycles
FIRSTLY, bitcoin leads the whole market like it has been.
Secondly, liquidity moves into Layer 1 altcoins like CRYPTOCAP:ETH , CRYPTOCAP:ADA & EURONEXT:ALGO = TOTAL 2 in Feb/Mar
Thirdly, liquidity moves into Layer 2 altcoins like CRYPTOCAP:IMX , CRYPTOCAP:MATIC & NASDAQ:OP (TOTAL 3 in Mar/Apr)
After that the Memecoins and shxtcoins have their wild runs, which usually coincides with peak euphoria and the end of the bull market or a sizable correction. This is why you leave the gambling with small small positions until later in the cycle for those memecoin plays.
I hope this helps you frame the timeline of the market in you mind. It may not happen exactly as outlined with the dates but the sequence will likely be the same so we can watch out for Layer 1's and Layer 2's moment next.
PUKA
Altcoins- New strong leg up?Since mid-October, Alts have shown significant upward momentum, experiencing an impressive average gain of approximately 70%.
However, as their combined market cap soared above 500 billion dollars, a predictable correction ensued, with alts retracing around 20% of their gains.
This correction stabilized around the 440 billion mark before initiating a bullish reversal.
As of now, the current price hovers precisely at a short-term resistance level.
A breakthrough above this critical horizontal and psychological threshold at 500 billion could catalyze a fresh upward surge in altcoin prices.
The projected target stands at 620 billion, representing an average increase of 25%.
Notably, certain alts are expected to outperform this average, with some potentially experiencing gains exceeding 100%.
The Altcoin MarketThis chart displays the altcoin market (crypto total marketcap -BTC, ETH, & stablecoins) overlayed with BTC price and halving date information. After the 2020 halving, BTC price hit an upward inflection point roughly 154 days after the May BTC halving. The altcoin market hit its cycle low at the end of December, roughly 231 days after the halving. These same periods past the 2024 halving are indicated in the chart.
TOTAL 3 Cycles SynchronizationHere is the Cycles Synchronization of Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH (TOTAL 3). At some point, between mid november and mid december 2025, I do expect around 2T Market Cap to be the top for the cycle. 1 year later, the Market Cap could be at around 1T or a bit less, I think.
Will follow with interes...
Not a good day for Bulls today.. Feds got a Dual 'delay signal!🚨 Attention Traders: Important Market Update 🚨
Today's job report has delivered a curveball for bulls in the market. The U.S. economy added a staggering 353,000 jobs, far surpassing the expected 187,000. While this is fantastic news for the dollar and reflects a strong economy, the implications for traders are mixed.
🔍 Why the Caution?
The unemployment rate dropped, indicating fewer people without jobs, which ordinarily would be purely good news. However, the average hourly earnings have also risen – signaling potential inflationary pressures ahead. This could mean that the Federal Reserve's next big challenge will be price stability, not employment.
💡 Fed's Dual Mandate:
Remember, the Fed has a dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. Today's data ticks the box for employment but raises the red flag for inflation, hinting that the Fed might not be as quick to cut rates as we hoped.
📉 Impact on the Markets:
This is a pivotal moment, especially for risky assets. We might need to brace for a stronger dollar, which traditionally doesn't bode well for assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.
📊 What's Next?
Shorting Opportunities: With a bullish dollar, look into shorting opportunities on assets like Bitcoin and other altcoins such as AVAX.
Gold Watch: Keep a close eye on gold. With these figures, gold prices could dip below $2,000, presenting potential entry points for shorts.
🔄 Portfolio Adjustments:
It's time to reassess and readjust portfolios in light of this new data. Today's results are a stark reminder of the importance of staying vigilant and adaptable.
Stay tuned for more updates and strategies as we navigate these market developments together. Trade smart, and let's tackle these challenges head-on.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙