Alts testing resistance after 9 swing moveFunction: Corrective
Wave Family: Complex Zig Zag
Macro count: Primary B of ABC in Cycle IV
Invalidation points: Above 161.8% of WX
Description: TOTAL3 appears to be completing a 9 swing corrective wave and is in wave Y of WXY. In the WXY pattern W is a simple zig-zag (ABC 5-3-5), X is a triangle and Y is a simple zig-zag. The fib retracement of primary A shows the 38.2% - 50% levels clustered in the same region as the 123.6% - 161.8% trend based fib extension of WX which shows the region for a potential top of TOTAL3. If a top forms, you can expect the market cap to do at least 1:1 of wave A or 100% (measured move) in a C wave.
TOTAL3 trade ideas
Alt-coins are hot! What does liquidity tell us?The alt-coin market is hot right now. This could continue alongside anticipation of halving, possibly driven by those feeling priced out of BTC and seeking faster returns. Or we could see alts cool down as speculators rotate back to BTC.
TOTAL3 is the total market cap of alt-coins (cryptocurrency less BTC and ETH), representing the most speculative opportunities in the space. The correlation between alts and central bank liquidity is among the highest that I can find among risk assets.
Liquidity (green) has been increasing since September 2023 and alts (white) have moved steeply since. It’s worth noting when the correlation coefficient deviates from liquidity, which is what we’re seeing now.
Lower correlation when the supply of funds is increasing and alt market cap is flat represents fear in the market (2020 recession)
Low correlation when market cap is increasing faster than liquidity could indicate an unsustainable euphoria (current)
This perspective doesn't tell us when sentiment will correct from being overly greedy or overly fearful, only that we're headed toward an extreme. For the time being I am keeping my alt trades relatively small and taking profits aggressively.
$BTC vs $ETH vs $TOTAL3Let's compare CRYPTOCAP:BTC vs CRYPTOCAP:ETH vs CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 (= NO #BTC or #ETH)
These are all showing negative divergence on RSI & $ flow on daily.
(Showing 2b cautious, this is NOT reason for a TRADE)
#ALTCOINS have done VERY WELL, They are currently OVERSOLD & can remain that way for a very long time, just saying.
They did it from 12/2020 - 5/2021
Then peaked 11/2021 after ATH
Please see profile for more info..
Not all charts here.
total3 Daily time frame review and analysisIn examining the TOTAL 3 chart, we notice that, like the TOTAL 2 chart, HC XVTD is contrary to the movement of .ETH. BTC. TOTAL. In addition to the fact that it is not even close to the supply area, it is also failing and stabilizing above a supply level, which is an important indicator that with the recent growth of Bit and the analysis of the upward trend in the TOTAL2 chart, we should be more mindful of the occurrence of alt seasons.
Altseason Indicator. Capitalization excluding BTC ETH USDT USDCLogarithm. Time Frame 1 week. Understanding the capitalization and growth potential of altcoins without BTC ETH and top steiblcoins USDT, USDC and DAI gives a brighter and more accurate picture of the timing of the start and development of that long-awaited altcoin season of more pronounced scale than now on 16 10 2023 - at the time of publication 8 12 2023.
1) The capitalization of these assets has long been in a squeeze - consolidation, this is a direct correlation with the accumulation zones. We are conventionally in the final phase of accumulation (almost).
2) Please note that there has been no real capitulation (perhaps there will not be, and if there is, it will be V figuratively, but that is not the point). Very much emphasize your attention to the timing of the length of this phase and past late 2018 and 2020.
3) Also note to your eye that at that time 2018-2020 there was not such a big capitalization outperformance from the rest of the BTC and ETH market. Compare that to the situation now, how much other altcoins are "undervalued" speculatively. You also need to realize that there is a correlation with stablecoins and their huge portion of the overall market compared to the time before.
How to enter these parameters on tradingview? .
In order to capitalize alts from TOTAL3 (initially without capitalization of BTC and ETH) and exclude all large-capitalization stablecoins from it, you need to do the following:
In the ticker entry line in tradingview write:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC-CRYPTOCAP:DAI .
Accordingly, a chart is created that subtracts the capitalization of the designated stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI) from TOTAL 3.
Total 3 altcoins indecisive I called that last total3 washout with the marked candle bodies. This allowed me to sell some of my more recently bought tokens to get a lower entry. I was able to get better DCAs on Link, PYR, ILV, and a few others. The chart now finds itself at an inflection point. Attempting to get back into the greater channel, but resistance is winning. Total3 climbs to that green fib slowly with BTC also on a heavy uptrend. We have been on a bullish supertrend since late October. Our fallback zone is this red dashed line which is a prior weekly double top. My bullish target is the green fib around 500b mcap. This is a 32% upside vs a 23% downside. Stay safe, I am not trading this as I got most of my altcoin entries nearly a year ago at this point. The market is overheated imo.
Santa Rally for Altcoins on the cardsTOTAL3, an indicator of altcoin market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has made a significant move🔔.
We've breached and closed above on a weekly timeframe some serious key levels. And are above the Bear Market high.
By surpassing and maintaining above the bear market high on a weekly timeframe.
While this doesn't mean we won't see a pullback in the near future, it does set up some nice space to move leading up to the BTC halving.
It also comes at a timely point in the macro landscape, with the US monetary policymakers this week agreeing that rates will be dropping in 2024. With 3 rate cuts planned at this stage.
These tailwinds, combined with Bitcoin potentially ranging, could see a swell of liquidity returning to the #altcoin markets.
🎅 #SantaRally?
Greater the risk, greater the reward, therefore, alt coins.I often hear that we deserve a greater reward, if we take a greater risk in the crypto market, and I agree. I also agree that I should be rewarded for simply getting out of bed in the morning on the right side of the grass and I also believe that Dua Lipa's thighs could squish my head like a grape. So, in order to avoid such risks, I like to ensure my selection in alt coins exceed the performance of not only BTC and ETH, but more importantly the ETH killer SOL and the TOTAL3 index, and my head, well unfortunately it remains unsquished.
This graph illustrates the results of my risk/reward policy. They also say that past performance is not indicative of future results. Well until I can start to see into the future, make a person's head explode by mere thought or even begin to understand why the SEC thinks it has a right to enforce its policies outside the USA, this is the best I've got.
The Sublime Prince
Toronto, Canada
Alt Coins have a long way upIf we take a fib line from top to bottom, we have not cleared the 0.236 level.
The yellow dotted line is the weekly close on the july 2021, which will have some resistance.
A close above this line will be extremely bullish for an alt coin season
Bitcoin is already sitting at the 0.382 level, and i would think that the alt coins want to catch up.
As it stands, the 3 day is overbought on the rsi, but it looks like we are going to have a strong close at the end of today - im hoping that it closes above the dotted line
Last cycle we didnt manage to close above the 0.236 level on the first attempt, and fought for 2 weeks to get above.
After that, it REALLY was alt season
ALTCoins Hanging by a ThreadAfter 294 Days of freefalling to a crash landing and 378 Days of sideways PA ....
The ALTCoins may still be looking for a bottom.
Failure to find acceptance into and to break out of Range 3 could potentially lead to a move down to Range 2, with a downward target between the .382/POC Levels (-33% from current PA) and the .618/.66/VAL (-59% from current PA).
Worst case scenario would be a loss of Range 2, which I believe would end with a move to the .88/POC of Range 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While looking at these charts right now in the current economy, its easy to get discouraged...patience is key! Stay positive, there is a lot of potential opportunities to come. Do your due diligence, make a plan, and stick with it !
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hold spot in serval ALTCoins, and plan to DCA the way down, if indeed we do see a move down to the lower ranges.
Drink more water, exercise and trade responsibly !
*Not financial advise*
TOTAL3Greetings,
TOTAL3 (amongst other tickers) is an incredible useful tool that is provided from @TradingView
TOTAL3 shows the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH.
Today we're looking at this puppy on a small time frame, due the amount of volume and change in price action we've been seeing.
On chart provided we can see the two red lines being resistance points (major), these lines were added in many years ago and have not been moved. I just added a dotted yellow line which shows current minor resistance point.
Although i've added 'short' on this post. I will let you decide for yourself.
Remember, nothing is guaranteed, control the controllables.
Mogues