TOTAL3 trade ideas
TOTAL3 Breakout - Altseason 2023?The TOATAL3 chart has been in correction for almost two years (600 days).
This correction formed as a Falling Wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
Yesterday, following the court ruling about XRP’s case as “not a security,” TOTAL3 broke out of the wedge to the upside.
The final confirmation is if TOTAL3 gets above resistance at 407 billion USD.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
T3 5DHi!
Oops, it's been a while since I opened up
TOTAL3 to see what we have here.
I mentioned in an idea a couple of months ago
that I liked 5D timeframe,
which has often replaced a 1W for me.
And I turned it on just in time on this chart.
A death cross of the EMA 200/100 is forming.
Right now. For the first time.
Usually this thing acts like a hammer.
If you turn on the logarithmic chart display,
you can see that there is not much
left before the trend line touches and the point may lie
at 260-290B, depending on the rate of decline.
But I really have a bad feeling about this.
The price has already approached the trend line,
but the cross has just formed
and of course it will not dissipate in the next year.
Does it mean that the price will go under the line?
It is possible.
But after the breakdown of the line there is no way
to predict how deep it will go.
The VFI as you can see is confidently moving in bearish territory
and the long EMA of volume looks there as well.
As usual, draw all conclusions on your own.
I am not making any altcoin purchases yet.
P. S. I saw a rather curious opinion of @HustleGrindMomentum
This is what he writes:
"When i see the market do its thing, BTC and ETh go then ALts pump etc I am ready for more upside or at the least sideways accumulation phase but when we see a btc eth rally and then TOTAL and esp TOTAL3 dont pump above BTC or and TOTAL below TOTAL3 and BTC and ETH below both of those when compared on the same chart we see downside. this is not money entering the market but people getting out of DeFi ALTs you name it via BTC and ETH. this is time to run not buy last time I saw this in the charts we took a 35 to 40 percent crypto market DROP food for thought. for me and mine we dont want to spread to thin rite now and r ready to exit the market quick fast and in a hurry if needed."
I think this is an important insight, and I certainly don't have a better version of it.
I see the process, and he has an explanation.
TOTAL3Only needs ~25% across the board to reclaim this bear market 2019 trendline from the cover crash
25% isn't that much in crypto and with Blackrock news keeping the btc bid fairly strong
Alt/btc/eth pairings have been getting annihilated back to yearly lows so a relief rally myby?
Still a while till next halving event so loosing this trendline until then could be a thing also...
TOTAL3In the past i did make some wrong judgement toward total3 but i admit the journey isn’t completed lost until we see what happen this month.. i will be staring at total using the weekly level to see what will develop in coming weeks ahead. But so far I do have some insightful thoughts that if we indeed rebound from this demand level.. there’s room to grow upside..
TOTAL3 | ALTCAP minus ETHA huge Head and Shoulders bottom is forming for the TOTAL3 ALTCAP.
The red boxes show the key resistances to clear before fresh ATH's can be printed.
In green a possible trajectory is shown to the 1.618 extension target of this whole correction.
Invalidation: a drop below "Head"
Total 3 TOTAL3 - Total Altcoin Cap excluding BTC & ETH, Rising above the nearest resistance line, Green line, waiting for a 2D candle close tomorrow morning 7am above this level, this can be considered a good support altcoins.
HA candle turns Green, no lower beard indicates a strong uptrend
Expect over 10% gain for Total3 in July.
Wish you all a big win in July.
ALT SEASON IS HERE!!!Sometimes I just draw lines and throw stuff at the wall to see if it sticks. So I had some fun with log graphs on BTC and Market Cap excluding BTC/ETH, AKA Alts. The following chart is the alt market cap. The yellow vertical lines are halving dates or expected halving dates. (April 16,2024 per time of writing). The blue lines are the approximate market bottoms. The purple lines are support trend lines that follow each bull rush.
We witnessed a double bottom after the FUD of the SEC declared war on alts. #FireGensler trending near you. This number was conveniently at approximately $300B. Which is a near 10x factor from the $30B alt market bottom from previous bullrush. This double bottom was similar to that of the past crypto winter around the black swan covid event. One could say that the SEC declaring war on the two largest crypto exchanges in the world could trigger a small "black swan".
Finally I created a downtrend triangle that signified the market resistance throughout crypto winter. In the previous cycle as the market cap begun to break resistance, FUD was there to make sure it double bottomed. The SEC fud created a double bottom that now will signify the start of alt season. The purple lines point to a potential 10T market cap top for alts and a market bottom of $3T during crypto winter.
At the time of writing Gary Gensler was rumored to be resigning due to an internal investigation. Fidelity, Ark, 21Shares, Blackrock, Bitwise, Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, VanEck, and Citadel are either creating their own exchange or have filed for a bitcoin spot ETF, with most selecting Coinbase as their exchange for policing. If the cases against coinbase, and alts as securities are dropped and if large scale financial institutions continue their purchasing of bitcoin it is not unfathomable that we will see large sums of money thrown into the alt market cap.
Buy, hold, and enjoy the ride.
Disclaimer*: This is not financial advice and the writer owns alt coins such as SOL, ANKR, SHIB, and AUDIO at the time of writing.
Altcoins Double-Top, DXY Double-BottomShould TVC:DXY move back down to the bottom shown on the chart above, the altcoin market could move back to its top.
There is also a possibility of this happening if DXY simply moves sideways for an extended period of time.
However, if DXY moves back up above 105-108, hits 112-116 and continues, expect the altcoin market to move much further down.
Why?
The altcoin market and TVC:DXY are significantly negatively correlated, moving in near mirror-images of each other.
DXY correlation with alts (and Bitcoin, Stocks, etc) does cycle into the positive at times, but predominantly remains in negative correlation, long-term. This makes sense, too:
as the dollar index strengthens or inflates, the vast majority of everything that can be purchased with it will lose value
as the dollar index weakens or deflates, we see them gain in value.
Alt run coming.. soon!As Bitcoin edges closes to the end of its exit-pump cycle, i expect alts to run hard!
Some say alt runs are dead... but i believe the cycle of greed will continue to run regardless of legislations and whatever the SEC says :)
Nice little grab lower ready to pump into the gap.. enjoy!
Where is the Altcoin Market Heading?TLDR:
IMO, the altcoin market is in the depression phase of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet.
I expect TOTAL 3 to hold the 300 billion support level and break out of the falling wedge when Bitcoin breaks the 31K resistance level.
Target: 1.11 Trillion.
I know that for you to take me seriously I should tell you that all alts are going to zero and that you should ditch altcoins and just trade Bitcoin. Sorry to disappoint you, I think we are on the verge of a breakout.
Take a look at the recent past. Do you remember what it was like in November and December of 2022? Bitcoin was trading at 15 and 16K and almost everyone on CT was calling for a 10K Bitcoin.
Do you remember the disbelief many of us felt in January of 2023 when all of a sudden Bitcoin became mega-bullish? It still is, but that doesn’t stop all the sidelined traders to keep calling for new bear market lows.
If you feel that the altcoin rally earlier this year was a “sucker’s rally” and now everything will go to zero, just know that we are at the final stages of the altcoin bear market.
How do I know? Just look at this “Psychology of a Market Cycle Cheat Sheet.” We are past the anger phase about the Garry Ganslers of the world and well into depression.
If you missed some or all of the Bitcoin rally the market is giving you a second chance.
Now, to the chart:
The TOTAL 3 market cap chart displays the market cap of all the altcoins excluding BTC and ETH. That includes stables.
We can see that the altcoin market is in a correction since November of 2021. Unlike Bitcoin and ETH, altcoins are still in a bear market. However, the chart formation is that of a Falling Wedge which is a reversal pattern.
TOTAL 3 tried to break out once in April 2023, failed (anger), and went from 406 billion to 292 billion, about a 28% drawdown (depression). However, if you’ll take a look at the Accumulation/Distribution indicator you will see that it did not go down nearly as much. My only conclusion is that someone is picking up alts for cheap!
Theoretically, the altcoin market could remain in this wedge further, even go down as low as the lower support line would allow, and remain bullish (pink dot). However, I think it is unlikely. If the people in the market today were sellers, they would have already sold. Just remember the FUD and depression of late 2022. IMO, alts are at the same point Bitcoin was then.
I think that the 300 billion support level will hold and as bitcoin breaks the 31K resistance level the alts will break out of the wedge. As this cycle progresses towards the halving some bitcoin profits will go into altcoins and later new market participants will fuel the altcoin market further.
IMO, this is the time to accumulate and even take long positions, the best is yet to come. Remember it is always darkest before dawn.
(Image retrieved from: fifthperson.com)
TOTAL 3 - EOY outlookI like to use the TOTAL 3 chart to find my buy/ sell zones on alts.
I like this range because it has been respected by price, even after price attempted to break out. I see price being forced into 3 scenarios:
A) continue up to range highs
B) Retest range mid > range lows
C) lose the range low support and continue down, creating new lows
I will go to lower timeframes around these key levels and positioning myself accordingly.
Total 3 Altcoin Marketcap 👀Total 3 Altcoin Marketcap 👀
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Have a nice trading!🔥🙌
🔥 Total Altcoin Marketcap Inverse Head & Shoulders: New Cycle?TOTAL3, the total crypto marketcap excluding BTC and ETH, has been trading significantly more bearish than Bitcoin and Ethereum. This can also be deduced from the vertical trend of Bitcoin dominance.
Still, there's some good news to be said about the altcoin market. As seen on the chart, the altcoin marketcap has formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern, which is classically a trend reversal pattern.
Keep in mind that the pattern is not yet confirmed. First we have to break through the top resistance (neckline). Nevertheless, it's a pattern that we definitely have to keep a close eye on since it can signal that great things are coming soon for alts.
If the pattern confirms, there's a decent case to be made for the idea that the bear market bottom is in and that a new bull-cycle for alts will begin.
Share you thoughts🙏
CryptocurrencyCrypto (Alt coins) minus BTC and ETH weekly chart
- MAs cross signal
- candles below both MAs
- both MAs turning down
I think this is bearish until candles are above the green MA again
None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!