TOTAL3 trade ideas
ALT COINs breaking the almost 2 year descending channelI made an interesting comparison between the TOTAL3 (ALT COIN Market Cap, i.e, excluding BTC and ETH) and the BTC Market Cap.
As you can see this ratio just broke the 2 year descending channel with big volumes, projecting a 1:1 capitalization between the two.
Heres are some key notes:
The RSI and MACD bullish divergences also suggest a strong trend reversal.
BTC Market Cap can easily reach 3 trillion dollars , the 2.618 fibonacci extension. This is a reasonable assumption since, in the last run, it reached the 4.236 extension quite fast. If both market caps should match - and my projection gets it's way - that means a 2 trillion dollars increase in the ALT COINs market capitalization (almost 3x)
I've been accumulating on a couple of alts since the end of last year, and I hope now is the time to bring some returns on that.
Stay safe!
Variation of last chart but daily. Alt scenario guess from here This here is a variation of my last but just on the daily instead and another wishful thinking price scenario guess for the altcoins from here. Came up with this scenario guess by using an amalgamation of different ta principles i picked up here and there like described on last chart mixed with a little bit of just intuition guessing, moon cycle theories, and real world time events. Could be totally wrong, not an expert, just throwing my guess based on my level of knowledge, just in case it turns out to be spot on.
Altcoin Market Cap - Target - 2.5 TrillionHow do determine if its the right time to out on Alt Coin trades? Easy. Look at total Crypto Market Cap, less ETH & BTC. Long term uptrend. Market Cap Just held support on long term up trend and If we are to truly enter the Banana Zone, I’m looking to $2.5 Trillion as the top end target. Once we are at higher timeframe oversold conditions (Weekly, Monthly) average out and take profits.
This could be where the $$$ is made…
TOTAL3 2H: Bull Flag Formation - 1.6T TargetThe TOTAL3 index, representing the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is displaying a bullish continuation pattern in the form of a bull flag. The market has established a strong uptrend, followed by a consolidation period that appears to be setting up for another leg higher.
Key Technical Observations:
The primary trend is decisively bullish, with price action showing a steep ascent from around 600B to 1.14T market cap. The recent consolidation has formed a flag pattern, with parallel downward-sloping lines containing the price action. This type of consolidation after a strong move is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting the bullish momentum may resume. The volume profile during the consolidation appears to be diminishing, which is characteristic of flag patterns and supports the continuation thesis.
Price Targets:
Based on the measured move technique for flag patterns, taking the flagpole's height and projecting it from the breakout point, the primary target extends to approximately 1.6T. This projection aligns with the principle that crypto markets often extend previous moves after corrections. The target represents a significant psychological level that could act as a major resistance zone.
Trading Setup:
- Entry Conditions: Look for a decisive break above the upper flag boundary at approximately 1.14T, preferably with increased volume
- Initial Stop Loss: Place below the lower flag boundary around 1.07T
- Take Profit Levels: Primary target at 1.6T, with potential intermediate resistance at 1.3T and 1.4T
Risk Management:
- Stop Loss Placement: The tight consolidation pattern allows for a relatively close stop loss, improving the risk-reward ratio
- Market Conditions to Watch: Monitor Bitcoin and Ethereum's price action as they can influence the broader market sentiment
Additional Considerations:
The current consolidation is occurring at all-time high levels for TOTAL3, suggesting strong underlying strength in the altcoin market. The clean technical pattern, combined with the strategic location of the consolidation, provides a favorable setup for continuation.
Trade Validation:
- Bullish Case: A high-volume breakout above 1.14T would confirm the pattern
- Invalidation: A decisive break below 1.07T would negate the immediate bullish setup
Market Context:
The altcoin market has shown significant strength relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating growing interest in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This suggests potential capital rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, which could support the bullish thesis.
Alt Season Is ComingThis is the total market cap of crypto, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. While charting something like this is speculative since it is not a traded asset, analyzing its movements can provide insights into the potential for altseason. Last week, Total3 reached its all-time high, touching the peak from November 2021 at 1.13T, before being rejected.
Currently, total market cap, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, is already breaking new highs, indicating that Bitcoin has been leading the charge, with its price appreciation driving overall market cap growth.
Take note of the left side of this chart—December 2020 marks the equivalent point in the previous 4-year cycle.
The potential here is significant: if we break to a new all-time high, altcoins could go parabolic in 2025.
Let’s hope history repeats itself.
Total market cap (excluding BTC)
The total market cap excluding Bitcoin shows a significant breakout from a bull flag or parallel trading channel, followed by a retest. Currently, the market cap has reached a measured move that aligns with both the 1.618 and 1.886 Fibonacci retracement levels. It appears to be consolidating or bouncing between these two Fibonacci levels as it awaits further structural development. This movement can be interpreted as a healthy upward trend in the broader crypto market excluding Bitcoin. Must be noted we have bearish signals forming on longer timeframes on macd and RSI. 👀👀. Nfa 💡👌
TOTAL3 Still Needs to Correct before FULL ALT SEASONTotal 3 still has a ways down to go and some consolidation before we can really send this thing into full on alt season.
I expect it to retrace somewhere in the 850-900b range and consolidate there above the previous high of about 800b
Elliot waves pattern playing out perfect and I think once we do consolidate we will see absolutely explosive gains into the next wave.
Massive -17% flash crash! Stop loss hunting, liquidity grab!CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 experienced a historic flash crash that impacted all altcoins, with most losing up to 25% within minutes before bouncing back.
This coordinated crash likely affected many cautious holders who had placed stop-loss orders at -10% to -20%, waking up to the unpleasant realization that they lost significant positions during the event.
This incident highlights the brutal nature of unregulated markets. Additionally, numerous leveraged longs were likely liquidated, particularly in the altcoin sector.
The $100 billion drop has undoubtedly caused widespread pain but could also inject liquidity into the market, potentially fueling a future upward move.
Leverage remains inherently risky, and stop-loss orders must be carefully monitored to avoid falling victim to these liquidity-grab tactics orchestrated by market makers.
In this market, it’s not just trading—it’s a battlefield. Stay vigilant.
A Big Upward Movement for TOTAL3TOTAL3 - Total Crypto Market Cap — Excluding BTC and ETH
Always and at all times. All events will occur in the chart.
Trend Prediction - TOTAL3 Forecasting -
Resistance and Support Lines
In the weekly time frame, an Cup and Handle pattern is visible on the chart. It will take some time for it to fully develop. It seems that a large uptrend is on the way. Caution is advisable.
Are big events on the way!!!!!
**** Yousef Sharafi ****
Follow me here for more analysis
Altcoin Market - Alt Season Paused - What now?Everything is bleeding. The world is ending.
Facts:
1. Many alts are still up significantly from their yearly lows.
2. Many alts had massive runs and you should have taken some profit.
If you take into account principles in trading and technical analysis, you'll allow yourself to remove all the emotion and keep a steady eye on the bigger picture which is what I aim to do here. I'm using basically two tools in this video:
1. Fibonacci - in a reverse fashion, measuring a bear market to determine where the next bul market can go. It worked fairly well for the last bear/bull cycle, so I am applying the same principle for this same bear/bull cycle - giving me a target (conservative) at 1.56T - an aggressive target would be ~1.91T but that is not my primary target.
2. Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - I measured a few different pivots in the 2023/2024 cycle to determine some upside targets and I kept arriving at 1.48-1.57T as targets for extended moves.
Are there targets beyond that? Absolutely. Am I ready to share those now? Not unless I want a repeat of the ridicule I faced for suggesting that BTC would break out of the 60k region just a few weeks back. I’m not here to chase every micro move in crypto. My focus is on the broader bull cycle we’re riding, and my goal is to make the most of it.
For those genuinely curious and willing to decode and have a little fun, here’s a ciphered message using the Caesar cipher (shift of 9) to get the ultimate TOTAL3 market cap target:
"Mdq wkh pdmru wdujhw lv irxu dqg d kdio wuloolvq grooduv."
Crypto Total Market 3 - JULY 2024 FORECASTTOTAL3 Chart Here!
** (TOTAL3 shows the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies,
excluding BTC and ETH.) **
Bitcoin and mostly altcoin just got rejected by some major structural &fib resistance
This could be healthy for the long run -if TOTAL3 reverses from this support area
Organic growth of the market includes these types of pullbacks as we all know
Dollar Cost Averaging into these pullbacks could be a good strategy long term
However considering we are at historical lows of the altcoins market i wouldn't allocate to much dollars aside for DCA-ing right now (maybe around 10-15%) of my total portfolio. Or less.
TOTAL3 ChartHey,
Normally I don't share lower-timeframe crypto charts, cuz I find that irrelevant.
However, due to the massive amounts of greed and fear in the markets...
It might be nice to get my view on things.
The market is sitting in the last push (which can be the largest)
But this type of price-action and volatility goes both ways.
A chart never just moves up without printing hh's and hl's.
A chart has structure, and makes sense.
Total3 tapped below the 1trillion.. after spiking to new ATHs.
I see it go higher from this clean demand area later this week.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld