US30 - LONGPrice had the big drop as expected. Didn't quite fill the gap that I thought it would. But seeing that price has now changed momentum on the higher time frames, I am expecting it to continue to rise and create a higher high.
US30 trade ideas
US30 INDEX TRADE IDEA 27 MAY 2025The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is showing a bullish outlook based on a confluence of Smart Money Concepts (SMC), price action patterns, and supportive fundamental analysis. From an SMC perspective, the recent price action indicates a clear market structure shift, highlighted by a break of structure (BOS) in early May 2025. This bullish reversal followed a significant liquidity sweep and mitigation around the 37,000 level, where smart money likely accumulated positions. A bullish order block between 40,679 and 41,189 now acts as a strong demand zone, providing a potential launch point for further upward movement. Technically, the chart features a descending wedge breakout and a bullish flag formation—both classical continuation patterns. Price is currently forming higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the bullish trend.
The trade idea aligns with these observations, suggesting a long entry around the 41,700 to 41,900 range, with a stop loss just below the key demand zone at 40,679. The first take profit is set at 44,472.5, aligning with historical resistance and liquidity targets, offering an approximate risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. On the fundamental side, the mid-2025 U.S. economic outlook is improving, with inflation showing signs of cooling and the Federal Reserve expected to pause or consider rate cuts. A stable geopolitical climate and strong earnings seasons have further boosted investor confidence, supporting continued bullish momentum in equities. Altogether, this presents a high-probability swing trade opportunity to the upside on the US30 index.
Double bottomDivergency double bottom on the Dow. It's a intriguing one as its the only index giving us the buy signal. One should always follow the strategy, even if you don't believe its going to workout, as there's a great deal of randomness in this business.
US30 Footprint Update | May 29, 2025We're witnessing a clear shift in order flow dynamics on the 1H footprint chart.
🔻 Earlier in the session, sellers were firmly in control with heavy negative delta and large sell imbalances between 42,280–42,120.
🔄 Key Change: Around 42,088–42,177, aggressive selling was absorbed, followed by a strong bullish delta of +125 and increasing buyer interest in the following candles. Volume has flipped in favor of buyers.
📈 Current Price: Holding around 42,191.50, just below the key resistance zone of 42,231. A clean break and acceptance above this level could confirm a bullish shift toward 42,280–42,300.
🧠 What I’m Watching:
Break and hold above 42,231 = long continuation
Failure to sustain = possible retest of 42,177 or lower support
🎯 Volume and delta are aligning in favor of bulls — let’s see if they can take control.
Long US30Long to POC 1 or 2
Exit if Renko prints opposite direction
Enter if Renko prints long position again
Possibility of uptrend Wave c is expected to end at the green support zone and start an uptrend. A break of the support zone will invalidate the above scenario.
US30Correlation Between US30, 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and DXY
1. Bond Prices vs. Yields
Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.
Example: If the 10-year Treasury bond price drops (due to selling pressure), its yield rises to attract buyers.
Current 10-year yield: 4.54% (as of May 21, 2025).
2. 10-Year Yield vs. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Typical Positive Correlation: Higher yields attract foreign capital into USD-denominated assets, strengthening the dollar (DXY↑).
Recent Divergence:
A rising 10-year yield paired with a weakening DXY may signal market skepticism about Fed policy or risk aversion (e.g., investors favor Treasuries as safe havens despite lower yields).
Example: If yields rise due to inflation fears without economic growth, DXY may weaken as traders doubt the Fed’s ability to sustain rate hikes.
3. DXY vs. US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Inverse Correlation: A weaker dollar (DXY↓) often supports equity indices like US30, as multinational companies benefit from cheaper exports and higher overseas earnings.
Exceptions:
In risk-off environments, a stronger dollar (DXY↑) may coincide with equity sell-offs as investors flee to safe-haven assets.
4. 10-Year Yield vs. US30
Mixed Relationship:
Negative: Rising yields can pressure equities (US30↓) as higher borrowing costs reduce corporate profits and make bonds more attractive.
Positive: Yields rising due to growth optimism may lift stocks (US30↑) if earnings expectations improve.
5. Yield Curve Dynamics (30-10 Year Spread)
Current Spread: 0.51% (30-year yield: 4.94%, 10-year yield: 4.43%).
Implications:
A widening spread (30-year > 10-year) suggests long-term growth/inflation expectations.
A flattening/inverted spread signals economic uncertainty or recession fears.
Summary Table of Relationships
Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with US30
10-Year Yield ↑ Typically ↑ (if growth-driven) ↓ (if rate-driven) / ↑ (if growth-driven)
Bond Prices ↑ ↓ (yields fall, USD less attractive) ↑ (cheaper borrowing)
DXY ↑ — Typically ↓ (hurts exports)
30-10 Spread Widens Neutral ↑ (growth optimism)
Key Scenarios
Risk-On Environment:
DXY↓ + US30↑ + Yields↑ (growth optimism).
Example: Weaker dollar boosts equities despite rising yields.
Risk-Off Environment:
DXY↑ + US30↓ + Yields↓ (safe-haven demand for bonds and USD).
Policy Divergence:
Yields↑ + DXY↓ (markets doubt Fed’s ability to sustain hikes despite inflation).
Conclusion
The interplay between US30, bond yields, prices, and DXY is dynamic and context-dependent:
Yield-DXY Link: Normally positive but can diverge during policy uncertainty or risk aversion.
DXY-US30 Link: Typically inverse but influenced by macroeconomic drivers.
Yield Curve: A widening 30-10 spread supports growth optimism, while flattening signals caution.
Traders must monitor Fed policy, inflation data, and risk sentiment to navigate these correlations effectively.
US30US30 Daily time frame analysis
Inverted Head/shoulder pattern formed also facing downtrend resistance
Take entry after break of neckline
Targets mention
Sell us30 Key Observations:
Market Structure:
Choch (Change of Character) marked → suggests a shift from bullish to bearish structure.
BOS (Break of Structure) below recent lows confirms bearish pressure.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
H1 FVG and IFVG (Internal FVG) have already been touched and price reacted bearishly.
H4 FVG above is unmitigated, acting as a potential supply zone.
Weekly FVG above current price – could be a long-term draw on liquidity but not immediate.
Trendline (Support):
Price is approaching an ascending trendline acting as dynamic support around 41,890 area.
If this trendline holds, a bounce is possible before any further drop.
Price Action:
Strong bearish candles breaking through the H1 FVG.
Sell-side liquidity beneath equal lows and trendline may be the target.
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🧠 Bias Summary:
✅ Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Reason: BOS + Choch + strong downside momentum + fair value gap fills.
Expectation: Price may seek liquidity below the trendline (41,800–41,600 zone).
⚠️ Watch for a Potential Bounce:
At the trendline zone (41,880–41,900), possible reaction or retracement.
If a strong bullish reaction forms here with displacement, we could see a move back up to fill the H4 FVG.
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📍 Bias = Bearish, with potential for short-term retracement or liquidity sweep before continuation
Long Us30 UpdateUS30 long TP 1 hit I've closed the trade
waiting for Pullback to show its hand to the upside for another push higher
New POC developed this is not to be ignored
Dow Jones (US30)The Dow Jones is due to see weakness as the US Dollar finds its footing seeking high prices and attacking 4Hour Resistance structures.
We expect a Bullish US Dollar which supports our Bearish notion on US30.
DowJones INTRADAY corrective pulback supported at 41470Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 42920
Resistance Level 2: 43300
Resistance Level 3: 43620
Support Level 1: 41470
Support Level 2: 41160
Support Level 3: 40890
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 - At Resistance? Holds or not??#US30 #DOWJONES - market just reached near to his current resistance region.
And if market hold it in that case we can expect a drop from here.
So don't be lazy here and only short below that.
Note: we will go for cut n reverse above region on confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Us30 sellKey Elements:
Price: 41,579.16 (at the time of the screenshot), showing a drop of -343.51 points (-0.82%).
Zones:
Weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap): Around 42,750–43,000.
Daily FVG: Around 42,100.
Daily High/Low: Marked around 42,095.82 (high) and 41,147.61 (low).
Market Structure:
CHoCH (Change of Character): Several CHoCHs marked, indicating shifts in market sentiment and structure.
BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates previous bullish momentum was broken.
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Prediction Path (Orange Arrow):
Suggests a possible retracement upward into the Daily FVG zone (~42,000+), then a reversal downward, breaking the Daily Low (~41,147).
Final target seems to be near 40,500 or lower, with another CHoCH noted at that level—implying further bearish continuation potential.
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Interpretation:
The chart suggests a bearish bias:
Retracement to fill the Daily FVG.
Then continuation downward, breaking key structural levels.
DowJones INTRADAY Key trading zone retestKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 42,920
Resistance Level 2: 43,300
Resistance Level 3: 43,620
Support Level 1: 41,470
Support Level 2: 41,160
Support Level 3: 40,890
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Dow Eyes 42,800 Resistance – Key Breakout Ahead?The Dow is currently holding near the neckline of a double-top formation that developed between December 2024 and February 2025, possibly buoyed by ongoing tech and Nasdaq optimism. The broader rebound from the 2025 lows is also forming a diagonal structure, setting up the following scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
With weekly RSI holding above the 50 neutral zone after rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2020, a sustained move above the 42,800-resistance level could extend the rally toward 43,800 and 44,800. A breakout above the all-time high near 45,000 would open the door toward the next major resistance at 46,800.
Bearish Scenario:
If the diagonal formation breaks to the downside—below 41,400 and 41,000—selling pressure could resume, forming a diagonal correction targeting support levels at 40,400, 39,700, and 39,000.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USA30 next possible moveMorning traders,I decided to share few I deas in smaller time frame as you can see dj open higher this week soo you need to generate liquidity in to position,am expecting market to pull a bit lower however it's been selling for past hours as you can you meaning it might continue with the trend before that I didn't mention but shown in the chart,make sure you are updated in everything soo that you wont be surprised when you see spikes understand them when the occur ls thank you I wish you all best n profitable week.
US30 potential long setupsMulti-Timeframe Market Analysis — Bullish Continuation Potential
3-Month Timeframe
• October 2023: Price broke all-time highs.
• Bullish order block established at $37,250; price rallied to $45,000.
• Strong retracement followed to the $39,000 region—bullish orders filled.
• Current trend: Structure remains bullish with institutional support evident.
Monthly Timeframe
• Post-ATH liquidity collected at $41,750; retested in January with insufficient momentum.
• Price returned to $45,000 before retracing to $38,000.
• Strong bullish response from $38,000 leading into April and May.
• Price now trades above $41,750. A monthly close above this level signals further upside.
• Watch for a three-pin pattern—if confirmed, high probability of a break above previous monthly highs.
• Next target: $45,000 liquidity zone.
Weekly Timeframe
• Double bottom formation aligned with higher timeframes.
• Bullish accumulation at $41,250 drove price to $42,000, followed by a close above that level.
• Immediate resistance at $44,000, where previous bearish orders were concentrated.
• Last week ended with a bearish candle; this week opened with strong bullish momentum from $41,250.
• This timeframe supports a bullish bias, contingent on follow-through above key levels.
Daily Timeframe
• Bullish structure in alignment with monthly and weekly.
• Strong order flow noted at $41,250, enabling a break and close above $42,000.
• Next daily target: $42,800; key resistance: $42,881.
• Anticipate a possible retracement to $42,000 for further accumulation before continuation higher.
4H Timeframe
• Intraday price action highlights Friday’s retracement to $41,250 during NY session—bullish orders filled.
• Monday opened bullish; momentum slowed at $42,000 with brief retracement.
• Tuesday's NY session: 3-pin bullish pattern at $42,000, followed by a bullish close.
• Current price movement appears to be a retracement for more long orders.
• No actionable setup at the moment; monitoring for a clean 4H close above $42,350.
1H Timeframe
• Price encountered resistance at $42,350, a known liquidity region.
• Break and close above $42,300–$42,350 range confirms short-term bullish pressure.
• Awaiting next 4H candle to assess validity of long setup.
• Maintaining a neutral stance short-term; prepared to act on bullish confirmation.
________________________________________
Conclusion:
Very mindful of FOMC meeting minutes today and I am waiting to see what price action will occur after. Market structure across all major timeframes remains bullish. Pending a monthly close above $41,750 and a potential three-pin formation, the technical outlook favors continued upside. Patience remains key—await confirmation for optimal long entries.
Dow Jonas - Elliot wave📉 DJI — Elliott Wave Top in Sight?
🔍 A long-term analysis with serious implications...
I've been diving deep into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), using Elliott Wave principles — and what I see may signal the end of one of the longest bull markets in history.
Elliott was right — the massive bull cycle did arrive and extended well into the 2000s. But now, that journey looks to be nearing its final destination.
Currently, I believe we're witnessing the development of an Ending Diagonal pattern — a structure often seen at the end of a major impulse. This formation appears to be completing a set of blue sub-waves, which in turn cap off the larger green primary impulse wave.
📍 The box marks my anticipated top for the DJI. From this point, I expect a strong reversal and the beginning of a major correction.
Now here's the shocking part:
If this correction plays out in time and reaches the Fibonacci 0.382 level, that would suggest a retracement spanning up to 86 years — yes, 86 years.
This isn’t just about markets anymore — such a scenario could carry massive consequences for the global economy and society as a whole.
If, however, we see a strong breakout above the box, then the ending diagonal thesis would be invalidated, and we might instead be witnessing an extended wave 5 — complete with five internal sub-waves.
But either way — the top is coming. It’s just a matter of when, and how hard we fall.
💬 What are your thoughts? Could we really be on the edge of a generational peak?
US30 BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
US30 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 41,822.1
Target Level: 42,718.6
Stop Loss: 41,224.4
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Bull Run To New Highs?The Dow got slammed on Wednesday, down 2%, no follow through yesterday.
Despite all the look of this rally being a bounce to sell, notice the uptrend line of support developed, this is the dynamics of markets, morph and twist to shake out weaker hands.
Would not be surprised to see a resumption of this rally to all time highs into June/July, the tariff wobbles are gone for now, any firm close below the trend line changes the trend.
We buy this market now at support in prospect of a larger rally to resume.
Appreciate a thumbs up, Good Trading & God Bless you all!
