US30FU trade ideas
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Bearish Move From Trend Line
I see a test of a strong trend line on US30.
The price formed a head & shoulders pattern on that
and a breakout of its neckline on an hourly time frame.
I expect a retracement to 48390
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Quick take on DJIACurrently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI is trading within a short-term downside channel. However, could it just be part of a correction, before another possible leg of buying? Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:US30
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US30 Update – 07/18/2025📍 US30 Update – 07/18/2025
Massive recovery off 43,929 👀
US30 has broken above the 44,500 resistance and is holding strong around 44,590. The EMAs are now sloping bullish on the 1H — this is the first solid bullish structure since the early July top.
If buyers hold above 44,500, we could see a run to retest 44,867, the local high.
📊 Market Structure:
🔄 Bear trend possibly shifting → early signs of reversal
📈 Higher lows forming — EMAs crossed bullish
🔼 Break of 44,505 confirmed strength
🧭 Eyes now on 44,700–44,867 zone
🔑 Key Levels:
🔼 Resistance: 44,700 → 44,867
🔽 Support: 44,505 → 44,285 → 43,929
🧠 Market Bias:
Short-term bullish — but buyers must defend 44,500.
A drop below 44,285 would invalidate this move.
💡 Trade Ideas:
🔼 Long Setup – Continuation:
Entry: Pullback to 44,505–44,530
TP1: 44,700
TP2: 44,850
SL: Below 44,450
🔻 Short Setup – Fade Rejection:
Entry: Rejection at 44,700–44,850
TP1: 44,500
TP2: 44,300
SL: Above 44,900
⚠️ Patience — wait for clean retests or candle rejections at key levels. No need to force entries.
Dow Jones: Shaking amid rumors of Powell’s dismissalIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The main Wall Street indices closed Thursday’s session with mixed results. Comments from Trump stating he had no plans to fire Powell but “doesn’t rule anything out” except in cases of fraud, along with Powell’s declaration that he will serve his full term until mid-2026, pressured the market. The U.S. market has been dealing with these dismissal tensions for seven months, which made the Dow Jones appear weaker, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to stay in positive territory, supported by strong earnings from key companies. At the session’s start, the Dow Jones fell 0.09% to 44,202 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.04% to 6,266 points and the Nasdaq gained 0.17% to 20,777 points. However, the Dow Jones closed at 44,484.49 points (+0.52%), the S&P 500 at 6,297.36 points (+0.54%), and the Nasdaq at 20,885.65 points (+0.75%). The day was marked by rumors from the White House, where an official stated that Trump would “probably soon” fire Jerome Powell. The news triggered an intraday drop of over 260 points in the Dow Jones, although markets later moderated losses after clarifications from the former president himself.
An early dismissal of Powell would likely impact the market very negatively and generate significant chaos. Trump’s interest in pressuring the Fed for rate cuts, although he cannot legally dismiss the central bank’s president, has been on the table since the start of his term. This has caused pronounced volatility movements. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.449%, as the market reduced the probability of a rate cut in September from 66% to 55% (CME FedWatch).
On the macroeconomic front, June retail sales rose 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. Weekly jobless claims stood at 221,000, also below expectations. With these results, Trump has little leverage to challenge the Fed.
Notable corporate results:
PepsiCo surprised positively with EPS of $2.12 (vs. $2.03 expected) and rose 5.7% at the open.
United Airlines advanced 3.6%, beating earnings expectations with EPS of $3.87, although revenues slightly disappointed.
GE Aerospace raised its 2025 EPS forecast to a range of $5.60–5.80, driven by strong aftermarket demand.
Netflix reported after the close, with expectations of $7.09 EPS and $11.06 billion in revenue.
TSMC led chip sector gains, rising more than 3% after announcing record profits thanks to AI. AMD, NVIDIA, and Super Micro also traded higher.
Technical Analysis
Observing the Dow Jones daily chart (Ticker AT: USAIND), since late April the index has moved upward toward its long-term control zone around 42,230 points, where the Point of Control (POC) acts as support for the current rally. In recent days, candles have used the 50-day moving average as support. The price expansion that began on June 6 with a golden cross appears solid. The bullish delta pressure zones from February and last year’s Christmas rally coincide with the current trading zone, suggesting a potential fourth attempt to break the current all-time highs at 45,110.09 points in pursuit of 46,000. If this price area is not breached, a pullback toward the POC zone could occur, and if that level fails to hold, a drop toward 39,600 points may follow.
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
Dow Eyes 45000 After Bullish BreakoutThe U.S. 30 contract has broken topside from a short-term bull flag, reinforcing the broader uptrend and putting 45000 resistance back in focus.
Traders looking to play a continuation can consider longs with a tight stop beneath for protection. A break of 45000 may trigger a fresh burst of upside momentum, putting big figures above in play.
Bullish price momentum is also building again, adding to the case for upside.
Good luck!
DS
US30 | Bearish Pressure Builds Below 44,170 — Breakout or BounceUS30: Eyes on Earnings and News
US stocks edged higher pre-market after Trump denied plans to fire Fed Chair Powell, easing market concerns. With corporate earnings in focus, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Technical View:
The price holds bullish momentum above 44170, targeting 44280 and 44500.
A 1H close below 44170 may lead to a drop toward 44075, and breaking below that would open the path to 43960 and 43630.
A 1H close above 44280 strengthens the bullish case toward 44500.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 44280, 44410, 44500
Support: 44075, 43960, 43630
previous idea:
Dow offering buyers much to work with!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is clearly trending higher, pencilling in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Supporting this trend is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 42,816 crossing above the 200-day SMA at 42,749; this is referred to as a ‘Golden Cross’ and suggests a longer-term uptrend may be on the table.
This, coupled with the recent ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish formation (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) completing at support from 43,877, has already seen buyers step in (with stops potentially located south of the 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio of 43,637). The next upside objective from here rests around resistance at 45,058, closely shadowed by the all-time high of 45,073.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
Bulls Steady Ahead of Key Earnings and Economic DataU.S. equities are holding steady in what has been a week of conflicting signals. President Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, including potential 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, has shaken market sentiment, but his public commitment to retain Jerome Powell as Fed Chair brought some temporary relief. That stability, at least for now, is helping underpin stock indices.
Focus has now turned to corporate earnings, with key players like TSMC and Netflix reporting shortly. These names could set the tone for the broader Q2 earnings season. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring incoming U.S. data — including retail sales and jobless claims — to gauge the health of the consumer and labor market. The combination of strong earnings and resilient macro data could provide the momentum
Technical Structure:
• Resistance: 44,350 — a potential breakout point
• Support: 44,000 and 43,800
• Pattern: The index is trading within a descending channel, but recent strength suggests a breakout may be developing.
• Upside potential: If earnings and macro data support risk appetite, a breakout toward 44,800 becomes plausible.
Takeaway: Sentiment remains fragile but stable. Traders should keep a close eye on both corporate results and macro data releases for direction cues.
DOW JONES 1H ANALYSIS – JULY 17, 2025📉 DOW JONES 1H ANALYSIS – JULY 17, 2025
🔎 Tracking structure | key levels | trade ideas
🔹 Current Price: 44,248
📆 Timeframe: 1H
📈 Bias: Neutral → Short-term bullish ✅
📌 MARKET STRUCTURE UPDATE:
Price held strong at 43,929 – key support from earlier July lows 🔁
After a deep pullback from 44,800s, we’re seeing a bounce with price reclaiming the 21 & 50 EMA 🧠
This signals short-term buyer momentum stepping in – but caution: we’re still trading below key resistance 👀
🔹 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Support:
🟢 43,929 → major bounce zone (held)
🟢 44,182 → short-term EMA support
Resistance:
🔴 44,523 → former support, now flipped resistance
🔴 44,555 → breakdown origin
🔴 44,857 → major supply zone top
💡 TRADE SCENARIOS:
🔼 Bullish Case:
If price holds above 44,200 and pushes through 44,523–44,555, we likely see 44,700+ retest 🔥
A breakout + hold above 44,555 = trend shift confirmed 📈
🔽 Bearish Case:
If rejection at 44,523/555 holds, watch for rotation back to 44,000 → 43,929
Below 43,929 = possible slide to 43,700–43,600 demand 🚨
Dow Jones H1 | Approaching a pullback resistanceThe Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 44,308.44 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 44,450.00 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 44,074.17 which is a swing-low support.
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Could the price rise from here?Dow Jones (US30) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 43,908.34
1st Support: 43,228.22
1st Resistance: 44,759.62
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