Wall Street 30 - Rolling Future forum
The Dow Jones keeps pushing higher, but macro conditions are flashing warning signs beneath the surface.
🔻 No Rate Cut Yet: The Fed remains hawkish. Market is pricing in optimism, but Powell hasn't confirmed a dovish pivot.
📉 Yield Curve Still Inverted: A classic recession indicator — yet equity markets are acting as if a soft landing is guaranteed.
🛑 Earnings Outlook Weak: Several industrial and consumer names in the Dow are lowering forward guidance. The price action isn’t reflecting this reality.
💣 Tariff Risks Return: U.S. trade tensions and upcoming election-driven policy risks are not priced in. If tariffs escalate, margin pressures will hit large caps hard.
💼 Fiscal Risk Mounting: With rising deficits and debt service costs climbing, market confidence may turn rapidly — especially in cyclical-heavy indices like the Dow.
📊 The DJI isn’t just “overbought” on charts — it’s fundamentally running ahead of macro reality.
Sometimes the lagging index becomes the last to correct, and hardest to fall.
#DJI #DowJones #MacroRisk #Overextended #MarketCycle #RateCuts #RecessionWatch #CFA #TradingView
43000 here we go?