US100 - Lots of opportunities unfoldingChart Overview:
This analysis focuses on the US 100 (NAS100) index, sourced from CAPITAL.COM . The chart highlights critical price levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) , and a Buy side liquidity (BSL) , offering actionable insights for traders.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action & Structure:
- The index has shown significant volatility, with a clear Break of Structure (BSL) indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
- The price is currently navigating between key support and resistance zones , marked by horizontal levels.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
- Two prominent FVGs are visible on the chart, representing areas where price may revisit to fill imbalances. These zones often act as magnet levels for price retracements.
- Traders should monitor these FVGs for potential entry or exit opportunities , depending on price reaction.
3. Critical Price Levels:
- Resistance Zones:
- 20,250.0 : A major psychological barrier.
- 19,750.0 - 20,000.0 : Intermediate resistance cluster.
- Support Zones:
- 17,000.0 - 17,250.0 : Strong historical support.
- 16,000.0 : A pivotal level for long-term bias.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: A break above 20,250.0 could signal further upside, targeting 20,500.0 and beyond.
- Bearish Scenario: A drop below 17,000.0 may confirm a deeper correction, with 16,250.0 - 16,000.0 as the next target.
- FVGs as Confluences: Use the identified FVGs alongside volume and momentum indicators to refine entries.
Timeframe & Validity:
This analysis is based on the daily timeframe (Apr 19, 2025) and remains valid until key levels are breached or new structures form.
Final Notes:
Always pair this analysis with risk management (stop-loss, position sizing) and confirm with additional indicators (RSI, MACD, volume). The market may fill FVGs before continuing its trend.
Like, follow, and comment if you found this useful! Happy trading!
USTEC trade ideas
US 100 - At a Critical Crossroads The US 100 index shows intriguing price action as it navigates key technical levels. Currently trading at 18,967.2 , the market has formed a clear double top pattern at the resistance zone, suggesting potential exhaustion in the uptrend.
Key Technical Observations:
The chart reveals strong resistance near recent highs around 19,024.3 , with price struggling to break through this ceiling. Below current levels, we spot a double bottom formation that previously provided support, creating an interesting tension between these patterns.
Notable price levels include:
- Resistance: 19,024.3 (double top confirmation)
- Support: 18,961.7 (recent swing low)
- Critical zone: The weakened gap that remains to be filled below current prices
Market Dynamics:
The minimal +0.02% change indicates indecision at these levels. The presence of liquidity pools both above and below suggests potential for volatility when either side gives way.
Trading Considerations:
A break above the double top resistance could signal continuation of the uptrend, while failure to hold current levels may see price test lower supports to fill the gap. The tight range between 18,961.7 and 19,024.3 suggests an impending volatility expansion.
The market appears to be at an inflection point where the next directional move could be significant. Traders should watch for either a confirmed breakout above resistance or breakdown below support before committing to positions.
Final Note: This technical setup presents clear risk/reward opportunities, but requires confirmation before acting. The double top pattern would only be validated by a break below the interim support levels.
Disclaimer: Market conditions can change rapidly. This analysis represents one interpretation of current price action and should be verified with additional indicators. Always use proper risk management.
Nasdaq - Printing The Obvious Bottom!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) already finished the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis๐๐ป
After we witnessed a minor "crash" of about -25% over the past couple of weeks, the bottom might be in on the Nasdaq. We simply saw another very bullish all time high break and retest and depite the possibility of a second retest, I am (still) extremely bullish at these levels.
Levels to watch: $17.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Nasdaq - This Is Still Not The End Yet!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) cannot resist bearish pressure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis๐๐ป
Over the past three months, we saw such a harsh correction on the Nasdaq that a lot of people are freaking out entirely. However technicals already told us that something feels wrong and this is the result. If we see another -10% from here, buying the dip will most likely pay off.
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Will Nasdaq Test Liquidity at 17,800 Before an Upside Move?NASDAQ is experiencing bearish slow down at the support level for the past 3 weeks. A re-test of the recent low looks imminent. and if price could be rejected after clearing H4 liquidity at 17,800, then we could see a sharp upside move.
Key risks: Fed commentary, major tech earnings, and geopolitical headlines.
N.B!
- NASDAQ price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#nq!
#nasdaq
NASDAQ: Stop the noise. Long term investors are buying here.Nasdaq may be recovering on its 1D technical outlook but remains bearish on the 1W (RSI = 37.616, MACD = -451.790, ADX = 38.564) as the timeframe is still under the dramatic effect of the 3 month correction. The market however appears to be finding support a little over the 1W MA200 and may turn out to be the new long term technical bottom as the 1W RSI rebounded from oversold grounds.
The last three times that happened, the index rose aggressively. The 15 year pattern is a Bullish Megaphone and every rally inside it obviously gets stronger. As long as the market is holding the 1W MA200, the trend will be bullish and this is the right opportunity to buy for the long term, aiming at another +113.90% bullish wave (TP = 36,000) to get hit towards the end of 2027.
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Mastering Volatile Markets: Why the Trend is Your Best Friendโ Mastering Volatile Markets Part 4: Why the Trend is Your Best Friend
In Part 1 , we covered reducing position size.
In Part 2 , we explored liquidity and execution strategies.
In Part 3 , we discussed the power of patience over FOMO.
Now,we're diving into one of the most important principles of all โ especially in volatile, fast-moving markets: Follow the Trend. Trust the Trend. Trade With the Trend.
In wild markets like these, everything changes quickly. Indicators print overbought or oversold conditions well before the market even thinks about reversing.
Divergences can keep stacking up while the price continues trending for another 300, 500, or even 1000 points. Why? Volatility + Liquidity conditions = Extended trending behavior.
When liquidity is thin, and volatility is high, strong trends tend to last longer than usual:
Breakouts run further.
Breakdowns fall deeper.
And counter-trend trades? They're often a fast ticket to losses.
โ What Pro Traders Know Better Than Anyone:
In volatile markets, trend-following isn't optional โ it's survival.
But wait, it is obvious that trends aren't perfect straight lines. So how can one even realistically โfollowโ a trend, especially in volatile markets.
Well, the key is to expect the unexpected. Experienced traders trade logically, we expect pullbacks, fakeouts, stop hunts, snapbacks and/or channel breaks. In fact, we prepare for them.
It is detrimental to assume the trend is over just because of these moves. Most of these are liquidity traps, not real reversals.
โ Here's What Pro Traders Do Differently:
โช They Identify the Core Trend Direction
Pro traders use price structure, trendlines, moving averages, VWAP , or higher timeframe levels to identify the trend direction. Once identified, every trade respects the trend.
Let me explain with an example.
โ Uptrend Identification:
Say you notice that the price of Gold (XAUUSD) has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows. What should you do?
You use the 100-period moving average (MA) and see that price is staying above it, indicating an uptrend. You wait for price to pull back to the MA, giving you a low-risk entry to join the uptrend rather than chasing the trend.
โ Downtrend Identification:
In a downtrend, USD/JPY keeps making lower highs and lower lows. You observe the 100-period moving average pointing down. This is your cue to look for short entries , avoiding countertrend buys that could trap you.
โช They ONLY Look for Entries at Key Trend Channel Levels
Professional traders donโt chase the price or try to catch every move. Instead, they patiently wait for price to return to key areas within a well-defined trend channel , either the upper boundary (in a downtrend) or the lower boundary (in an uptrend).
โ In an uptrend:
Pro traders draw a trend channel based on the price move. When price pulls back to the lower boundary of the channel (often aligning with demand zones), they start looking for long entries, aiming to trade with the trend and target a new high.
โ In a downtrend:
The same logic applies, but in reverse. Price pulls back to the upper boundary of the channel (supply area), offering a clean short opportunity to continue with the trend and target a new low.
But hereโs what separates pros from amateurs:
โ They expect fakeouts, spikes , and temporary breaks beyond the trend channel โ especially in volatile conditions.
โ They donโt panic when the price briefly moves outside the channel. Instead, they wait for confirmation signals (like a rejection candle, break of structure, or momentum shift) before entering.
โ This gives them both a logical entry point and a favorable risk-reward setup โ aligning with the larger trend direction while staying protected if the trend fails.
โช They Treat Countertrend Moves as Opportunities to Enter WITH the Trend
When a countertrend move happens, pro traders see it as an opportunity to enter with the prevailing trend, rather than trying to catch a reversal.
โ Counter-Trend Move in an Uptrend:
Let's say S&P 500 is in a strong uptrend, and it experiences a sharp pullback of 5%.
While many retail traders panic and try to short the market, pro traders see this as a buying opportunity at a lower price, anticipating the trend will continue after the correction.
โ Counter-Trend Move in a Downtrend:
For Gold (XAU/USD) , if the price falls sharply from $1,900 to $1,850 and then retraces back to $1,875 (a previous support-turned-resistance level), pros see this as an opportunity to sell into the trend rather than buying into what could be a false recovery.
โช They Accept That Trends Can Look "Overbought" or "Oversold" for a Long Time
In volatile, trending conditions, RSI can stay above 70 for hours or even days, and divergences can build for a long time without price reacting.
โ RSI Above 70 in an Uptrend:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rallies from $40,000 to $60,000. Despite RSI being above 70 for a few days, pro traders don't fight the trend because momentum is strong. Instead, they look for a pullback to the 100-period MA for a safer entry.
โ Divergence in Downtrend:
The EUR/USD shows a bearish trend , but the RSI starts to build a divergence as the price keeps making lower lows. Pro traders ignore the divergence because the trend is still strong. They wait for a clear break of the trendline or confirmation that price has reversed before considering a long trade.
โ Summary of Part 4 โ Trend is Your Best Friend
You can't control how far a trend will runโฆbut you can control whether you're with or fighting against it.
And trust me, fighting a strong trend in a volatile market is a battle retail traders rarely win.
Hereโs what you should take away from this article:
Volatile markets = Extended trends
Indicators can lie โ trend structure tells the truth
Fakeouts & pullbacks are normal
Don't fight the trend โ trade with it
Use counter-moves to enter the trend
Patience & trend-following = Survival + Profit
โ What We Covered:
Part 1: Reduce Position Size
Part 2: Liquidity Makes or Breaks Your Trades
Part 3: Patience Over FOMO
Part 4: Trend is Your Best Friend
That's it! You've now completed the Mastering Volatile Markets series.
Stay calm, adapt quickly, and trade smarter โ that's how you survive (and thrive) in volatile markets.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
USTEC,NAS100USTEC is still in a downtrend. The price has a chance to test the resistance zone 19588-19875. If the price cannot break through the 19876 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling in the red zone.
๐ฅTrading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck ๐
โค๏ธ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
NASDAQ Trump's 2 TRADE WARS are identical! What you need to knowNASDAQ (NDX) had a massive bullish reversal 1W candle last week as, despite a Lower Low opening, the intra-week rebound surpassed the opening of the previous week. The sell-off reached almost as low as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) , which has been the Support level of the late 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom and has been untouched for more than 2 year.
This is not the first time we see this pattern. In an interesting twist of events, we saw the exact same formation during Trump's 1st Trade War, which bottomed on the week of December 24 2018, near the 1W MA200 as well and exactly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top.
The similarities don't stop there as both Trade War periods were manifested within Megaphone patterns. Their sell-off/ Bearish Leg was -25% (now) and -23% (2018) respectively, while the set-up leading to those Megaphones was a +103.50% and +113.50% Bull Cycle respectively. Also both sell-offs got an oversold (30.00 or lower) 1W RSI bottom.
So, since NDX has currently completed a -25% correction near the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fib with the 1W RSI bouncing off the oversold barrier, it is very likely that we've formed the pattern's bottom, especially if the global fundamentals point towards trade deals.
If this Low remains intact, we expect a similar +35% short-term Top at 22500 within a 3-4 month period and then long-term rally near the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 29000.
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Bearish opportunity if support is broken๐ US100 โ Watching for a possible bearish breakout
After reaching the key level of 19,151.5, the US100 price has shown weakness by breaking out of an ascending wedge. It is currently testing a dynamic support zone at 18,695.4, just before a liquidity zone marked in red.
A break below this zone could trigger a move towards 18,434.1, and in extension towards 18,185.8, if bearish pressure continues.
This structure suggests that momentum is shifting in favor of the bears, especially if the blue support fails to sustain the price.
๐ง Action plan: Monitor a breakout with volume and a bearish structure to seek short entries with appropriate risk management.
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USTEC is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 18,606.32
1st Support: 17,788.70
1st Resistance: 18,942.56
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks โ Will Confirm the Next Move๐ Nas100 โ Hanzoโs Strike Setup
๐ฅ Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
โโโโโโโ
โ๏ธ Main Focus: Bearish Breakout at 18300
We are watching this zone closely.
๐ If price breaks with high volume, it confirms Smart Money is in control, and a strong move may follow.
โโโ
โโโ
Analysis
๐ Bearish Signs (15M TF):
โข Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18700
โข Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18400
โข Strong Rejections seen at:
โ 18400 โ Major support
โ 19000 โ Proven resistance
โโโ
๐ฉธ Key Zones to Watch:
โข 18700 โ ๐ฅ Bearish breakout level
โข 19130 โ Strong resistance (tested 6 times)
โข 18400 โ Equal lows
โข 3245 โ Equal highs
โโโ
๐ฉธNo rush. Only precision.
Hanzo moves in silenceโthen strikes with force.
๐ป Every warrior needs a tribe.
Follow Hanzo. Support the path.
NASDAQ Heading to 14K โ WXY Correction UnderwayUS100 (NASDAQ) Technical Analysis
๐ Daily Chart (1D)
๐งญ Updated: April 15, 2025
๐ General Context and Structure
The price reached a high of 22,236.5, completing an ascending wedge (orange lines), which was broken down with strong volume and bearish momentum, signaling a change in the larger structure.
After the collapse from that high, the index formed what appears to be a W wave within a complex corrective structure (WXY), completing in the 16,176.3โ16,992.2 range.
๐ Elliott Wave Structure (Projection)
We are currently seeing the development of the upward corrective wave X, which appears to be structuring as a 5-wave impulse:
(1) and (2) already completed
Projection of (3), (4), and (5) with a target in the 21,025.9 area
After this upward movement, the start of a downward correction (a)-(b)-(c) is expected, which would complete the bearish wave Y of the broader WXY pattern.
๐ Key Support and Resistance Zones
๐ด Major resistance: 22,239 โ 22,236.5 (Highs and strong rejection zone)
โช Intermediate resistance: 20,356.6 and 21,025.9 (Potential targets for wave X)
โช Intermediate support: 18,523 (Zone where wave (4) could form)
๐ข Strong support:
16,992.2 and 16,176.3 (base of wave W)
14,054.4 (potential target for wave Y, critical point)
12,719.4 (extreme extension if the decline intensifies)
๐ Movement Projection
Current bullish reaction remains impulsive โ wave (3) is underway.
Possible extension to 21,025.9 before a reversal.
Drop in 3 waves (a)-(b)-(c) towards:
๐ฏ First bearish target: 16,176
๐ฏ Second (final) target: approximately 14,580 (area marked as the end of wave Y)
โ ๏ธ Conclusion / Trading Idea
We are seeing a complex WXY-type correction developing. The most likely scenario suggests a bullish continuation towards 21,025 to complete wave X, followed by a sharp drop towards the 14,580 area.
๐ Possible trading plan:
Swing long to 21,025 if the momentum is confirmed.
Strong short from that area, looking for targets towards 16,000 โ 14,580 in the coming months.
๐งญ Risk Management
Stop loss above the all-time high of 22,236.5 for short positions.
Bearish confirmation after reversal structure at 21k.
NAS100 Testing Lows: Will a Bounce Offer a Sell Opportunity?NAS100 Technical & Fundamental Analysis ๐ง
Overall Sentiment: The current market sentiment surrounding tech stocks and the broader indices like the NASDAQ 100 appears cautious, leaning bearish. Factors like persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path ๐ฆ, and ongoing geopolitical tensions can weigh heavily on growth-sensitive assets like tech stocks. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases (CPI, PPI, FOMC minutes) as they could significantly sway sentiment.
1. Daily Timeframe (D1): The Bigger Picture ๐บ๏ธ
The NAS100 is exhibiting clear bearish characteristics on the daily chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently approaching or testing a significant area of previous daily equal lows. This is a critical zone โ ๏ธ. Why? Because significant buy-side liquidity often rests below such lows (in the form of stop-loss orders from long positions) and sell-side orders may trigger if these levels break decisively.
A strong break and close below these daily lows could signal a continuation of the major downtrend, potentially accelerating selling pressure. Conversely, this area could act as temporary support, prompting the pullback you're anticipating.
2. 4-Hour Timeframe (H4): The Setup Structure ๐๏ธ
My H4 chart clearly illustrates the recent sharp decline. Price is currently testing the support zone highlighted (around 17,800 - 18,000), which corresponds to the 0.00% Fibonacci level (17,973.8) drawn from the recent swing high (~19,117.4).
This support zone aligns with the concept of hitting the daily lows/liquidity area.
Anticipated Scenario:
I am expecting a reaction (a bounce/pullback) from this current zone. The projected path suggests a retracement towards the 50% Fibonacci level (Equilibrium) at approximately 18,547.3. This level often acts as significant resistance after a strong impulse move. The 61.8% level (~18,682.6) is also a key area to watch just above it.
Point of Interest (POI):
The zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels (roughly 18,550 - 18,700) is your key decision area for a potential short entry. ๐
3. 15-Minute Timeframe (M15):
Entry Confirmation Trigger ๐ซ
The M15 timeframe will be crucial if price reaches your H4 POI (around the 50% Fib level).
What to Look For: During the potential pullback towards ~18,550, the M15 will likely show a temporary bullish structure (higher highs and higher lows).
Confirmation Signal:
For your short setup, you'd want to see this M15 bullish structure fail upon reaching the H4 resistance zone. Look for:
A break of market structure (BOS) to the downside on M15 (price making a lower low after failing to make a higher high).
Formation of clear M15 lower highs and lower lows.
Bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars/shooting stars) rejecting the H4 resistance/Fib level.
Potential divergence on indicators like RSI or MACD (though price action is primary).
Synthesized Outlook & Strategy:
The NAS100 is undeniably in a bearish phase across multiple timeframes. The current test of daily lows / H4 support (~17,973) is a critical juncture. A bounce from here seems plausible, aligning with your expectation of a pullback.
The Strategy:
Patience: Wait for price to potentially rally towards the H4 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (~18,547 - ~18,682). ๐งโโ๏ธ
Confirmation:
Monitor the M15 timeframe closely as price approaches this zone. Look for a clear shift in market structure from bullish (pullback) to bearish (resumption of trend). ๐
Entry: If bearish confirmation occurs (M15 BOS), consider a short entry.
Targets:
Initial targets could be the recent lows (~17,973), followed by the Fibonacci extension levels shown on your chart (e.g., -50% at ~17,400.4) or the area below the daily equal lows. ๐ฏ
Risk Management: Crucially, define your stop-loss level (e.g., above the swing high formed during the M15 structure break or above the 61.8%/78.6% Fib level) to manage risk effectively. ๐ก๏ธ
Fundamental Check:
cross-reference this technical setup with any major news releases or shifts in market sentiment that could invalidate the pattern. ๐ฐ