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NASDAQ ahead of the most critical Resistance test.Nasdaq (NDX) not only broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of its All Time High (ATH) last week but managed to break and turn the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) into Support. It is now aiming for the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is the most crucial Resistance level of this recovery attempt and is what technically turns bearish trends into bullish if it turns into Support. We expect a short-term rejection there, which should give a buy opportunity near the 4H MA200. Our Target for this is 20350 (Resistance 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:USTECLong
by TradingShot
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Technical Breakdown on US100 | 1H TimeframeHere’s the detailed breakdown of the US100 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX): 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 19,383 Value Area Low (VAL): 19,220 Point of Control (POC): 19,291.79 High-volume nodes: Clustered around 19,220 to 19,300 (heavy acceptance). Low-volume gaps: Above 19,400 and below 19,200 — price can accelerate through these zones. b) Liquidity Zones: Stop clusters likely at: Above 19,400 (recent swing highs). Below 19,200 (recent breakout area). Order absorption zones: Around 19,291 (POC) and 19,220 (high bid absorption). c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High: 19,382 (testing resistance with moderate volume). Swing Low: 19,220 (breakout launch pad). d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Uptrend ADX Strength: ADX > 20 and DI+ > DI-, confirming strong bullish momentum. CVD Confirmation: Rising CVD + bullish candles = Strong demand and genuine buying pressure. 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: 19,291.79 (POC) 19,220 (VAL & previous demand zone) Resistance: 19,382-19,400 (current tested highs and potential breakout point) b) Gann-Based Levels: Recent Gann Swing High: 19,382 Recent Gann Swing Low: 19,220 Key retracements: 1/2 level: 19,301 1/3 level: 19,274 2/3 level: 19,328 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Strong Bullish (confirmed by rising ADX and CVD). b) Notable Patterns: Ascending Channel: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows inside the purple channel. Breakout retest: POC retest around 19,291 before moving higher. No major topping signals yet — still holding structure. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend): Entry Zone: 19,290–19,310 (near POC support zone) Targets: T1: 19,400 (swing high breakout) T2: 19,500 (measured move from channel) Stop-Loss (SL): 19,220 (below VAL and previous swing low) RR: Minimum 1:2 b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend): Entry Zone: 19,380–19,400 (at resistance failure) Target: T1: 19,290 (POC retest) Stop-Loss (SL): 19,450 (above resistance breakout trap) RR: Minimum 1:2 c) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of trading capital per trade.
F
by ProspireWealth
Gold Vs. Nasdaq, since 2022Fairly clear here that Gold and Nasdaq correlated in direction until December 2024, at which time the equities market peaked. The two continued to correlate in trend direction until February, where, after several years divergence finally occurred. Gold continues upward, equities continue lower. This seems to be a clear indication that equities, in this case the Nasdaq, will continue into downward correctional territory while Gold continues into a positive trending direction.
IG:NASDAQ
by Tradadada
Gold Vs. Nasdaq, since 2017 Using momentum indicators, the Nasdaq is overbought and seems to be retreating a bit off of that region. Gold is continuing to move into the overbought region of momentum. The two are following more of a correlation up until now. This current movement marks divergence, which is what is expected. This coincides with the expectation that Gold and equities will trend in opposite directions. In other research, it is noted that when there is correlation followed by divergence, it is typically the equity which was over-extended and will retrace back against Gold's more gradual movement. Gold typically keeps pace with inflation.
I
by Tradadada
2
NAS100 Bulls Rally – Eyes on 19,860 Resistance Zone!"The NAS100 is sustaining a strong bullish rally after reclaiming the 19,150 🔽 support zone. Price is trading firmly within a bullish structure, but still has some distance to reach the next key resistance at 19,860 🔼. Currently trading at 19,446, with Support at: 19,150 🔽, 18,500 🔽, 17,600 🔽 Resistance at: 19,860 🔼, 20,347 🔼 Bias: 🔼 Bullish: As long as price holds above 19,150, bulls remain in control. A breakout and retest above 19,860 could fuel a further move toward 20,347. 🔽 Bearish: A rejection from 19,860 or a break below 19,150 could trigger a decline toward 18,500. No breakout, no trade. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
F
by SPOT_FX
Is a reversal about to happen?Hello, traders Orange circles highlight repeated price rejection and the formed doji that suggests a slowdown in a bullish wave and potential reversal. The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal supply/resistance zone creates a high-probability reversal or breakout from this triangle. If the price rejects again from the current supply zone and triangle, short setup toward the Fibonacci retracements or demand zones (18300 and below). If the price breaks above the descending trendline, bullish continuation will likely target 20,000+ (Swing H). Trend remains down. Entry 19300 TP 18300 below Target 14k.
CShort
by JuliaKathleen
No shampoo in sight.....and an $11k Nasdaq?This posts presents an idea that has no precedence (that I can recall at least), so this is by definition a crazy idea BUT the chart is showing signs of extreme exhaustion and is possibly and quite frankly on the verge of a potentially destructive collapse. If the recent severe volatility hasn't peaked your attention... this chart should. It's quite simple...we have a MONSTER Head and Shoulders pattern on the Weekly TF...and we're finishing off the Right Shoulder! From a chart pattern perspective, this is ultra-ultra bearish. The confluence we have is the Elliot Wave showing the we could be about to enter Wave 5. Elliot Waves are of course subjective BUT in this case its syncs with the Head and Shoulders. If this was a 15min chart, most would probably agree hands down, but this is a Weekly Chart and represents Trillions on Trillions so its hard to believe that this could even be a possibility.....but I believe it could happen! The horizontal blue lines provide 2024's High and Low Price. For this disaster scenario to be avoided, the Bulls and anyone who cares must defend 2024's low around 16100. This must not be breached, to keep the 12M bullish structure in place. The green shaded areas highlight all of the Buy Side fair value gaps on the WEEKLY TF going back to early January 2023! Could the market dive for these in devastating fashion? Only time will tell. In the interim, we should trade safe and manage risk as best as we can.
CShort
by TheTradeBorough
Bullish Continuation Setup Towards📈 US100 - Bullish Continuation Setup Towards 19,454.8 🚀 After a strong impulsive move, US100 is consolidating inside a rising channel, forming a classic bull flag structure. Price has respected multiple demand zones on the way up and currently sits just above the key support at 19,107.0. The bullish momentum is supported by a clean structure of higher highs and higher lows, and a breakout from the flag could trigger the next leg up toward the 138% Fibonacci extension level at 19,454.8. As long as price holds above the 19,000–19,107 support zone, this scenario remains valid. Keep an eye on volume and a breakout candle for confirmation. 📊💥
CLong
by JAG_Trader
1
NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis: 1- Earnings season: In my view, it's irrelevant in terms of the data itself! It reflects the pre-tariffs era. Market is always looking forward. However, it gives market the opportunity for a relief, consolidation and rebalancing. So beside the kneejerk reaction, uncertainty is in the driver seat. 2- Trump's policies: The 90-day pause has a big chance to become an Eternity pause. Cracks inside Trump's team about the impacts of these tariffs on their own corporations will make them fleeing Trump's boat. Hence, the rational supporting the Eternity pause. This said, we'll see many tweets highlighting how much Trump is winning to feed his mindset. 3- Key economic data: Economic data will take over the driver seat. Recession and Inflation are the key data for market. Bad data is bad for Equities and vice-versa. 4- FED: Rate cut has increased probability during the next meeting, but for the wrong reasons. Both Trump and market will continue their pressure on the FED. This pressure is translated via Sell-off of stocks and equities. 5- Risk: Beside the uncertainty context, I think agreements between Iran-USA and Ukraine-Russia are underway. This is positive for equities. Gold is your indicator in this front. TA Analysis: Weekly TF: - Not much to update from two weeks ago analysis! Price is in its way to complete Wave 2. Crumbles left. - Price broke out and closed above the 90-day pause weekly/daily candle. This tells you a continuation up is expected but not too much left in the upper side. - Economic Data will drive the move. This might last 1-2 weeks. Daily TF: - Green daily close with a small size candle. - A consolidation period is expected to end this Wave 2. So there is no rush to jump in the sell side to catch the top of Wave 3. Here is a good opportunity for swing position that you can build incrementally as the price creates LL from lower TF up to Daily and Weekly TF. GL!
F
by OTM-Fadhl
Price breaking out of a wyckoff balance to go unbalanceMy approach the market was pointing out market had found a balance zone starting on April 9th- today. Today I notice high volume on the bull side towards one of the resistance points which it broke and retraced. One it started to retrace I went to the smaller time frame to look for a sniper entry( 5min bullish and strong delta candle stick rejecting of a low volume node and the session vwap ). The balance zone was $1450 wide so it should go imbalance for the same amount or close. This trade is really a 25rr but im going for 8rr to pass my 2nd phase in my challange. This trade will not hit instill like Wednesday maybe even to the end of next week.
PLong
by leegram12
1
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets. However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached. Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices . The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior. This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter. Let's look more into it. Historical Patterns and the Paradox The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market. In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights. The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle. Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started. The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out. By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down. ....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all! And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025. Leveling Off and the Market Peak It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau. Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values. Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began. We have an exact matching of these conditions now. The Bear Market and Rate Easing Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess. All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply. A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then). Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip. ================================= Realistic Examples of the Paradox ================================= Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s): Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices. Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989. Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase. Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000): Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith. Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations. Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted. U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s): Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth. Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs. Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.
IShort
by holeyprofit