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USTEC trade ideas

No shampoo in sight.....and an $11k Nasdaq?This posts presents an idea that has no precedence (that I can recall at least), so this is by definition a crazy idea BUT the chart is showing signs of extreme exhaustion and is possibly and quite frankly on the verge of a potentially destructive collapse. If the recent severe volatility hasn't peaked your attention... this chart should. It's quite simple...we have a MONSTER Head and Shoulders pattern on the Weekly TF...and we're finishing off the Right Shoulder! From a chart pattern perspective, this is ultra-ultra bearish. The confluence we have is the Elliot Wave showing the we could be about to enter Wave 5. Elliot Waves are of course subjective BUT in this case its syncs with the Head and Shoulders. If this was a 15min chart, most would probably agree hands down, but this is a Weekly Chart and represents Trillions on Trillions so its hard to believe that this could even be a possibility.....but I believe it could happen! The horizontal blue lines provide 2024's High and Low Price. For this disaster scenario to be avoided, the Bulls and anyone who cares must defend 2024's low around 16100. This must not be breached, to keep the 12M bullish structure in place. The green shaded areas highlight all of the Buy Side fair value gaps on the WEEKLY TF going back to early January 2023! Could the market dive for these in devastating fashion? Only time will tell. In the interim, we should trade safe and manage risk as best as we can.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TheTradeBorough
Bullish Continuation Setup Towards📈 US100 - Bullish Continuation Setup Towards 19,454.8 🚀 After a strong impulsive move, US100 is consolidating inside a rising channel, forming a classic bull flag structure. Price has respected multiple demand zones on the way up and currently sits just above the key support at 19,107.0. The bullish momentum is supported by a clean structure of higher highs and higher lows, and a breakout from the flag could trigger the next leg up toward the 138% Fibonacci extension level at 19,454.8. As long as price holds above the 19,000–19,107 support zone, this scenario remains valid. Keep an eye on volume and a breakout candle for confirmation. 📊💥
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by JAG_Trader
1
NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis: 1- Earnings season: In my view, it's irrelevant in terms of the data itself! It reflects the pre-tariffs era. Market is always looking forward. However, it gives market the opportunity for a relief, consolidation and rebalancing. So beside the kneejerk reaction, uncertainty is in the driver seat. 2- Trump's policies: The 90-day pause has a big chance to become an Eternity pause. Cracks inside Trump's team about the impacts of these tariffs on their own corporations will make them fleeing Trump's boat. Hence, the rational supporting the Eternity pause. This said, we'll see many tweets highlighting how much Trump is winning to feed his mindset. 3- Key economic data: Economic data will take over the driver seat. Recession and Inflation are the key data for market. Bad data is bad for Equities and vice-versa. 4- FED: Rate cut has increased probability during the next meeting, but for the wrong reasons. Both Trump and market will continue their pressure on the FED. This pressure is translated via Sell-off of stocks and equities. 5- Risk: Beside the uncertainty context, I think agreements between Iran-USA and Ukraine-Russia are underway. This is positive for equities. Gold is your indicator in this front. TA Analysis: Weekly TF: - Not much to update from two weeks ago analysis! Price is in its way to complete Wave 2. Crumbles left. - Price broke out and closed above the 90-day pause weekly/daily candle. This tells you a continuation up is expected but not too much left in the upper side. - Economic Data will drive the move. This might last 1-2 weeks. Daily TF: - Green daily close with a small size candle. - A consolidation period is expected to end this Wave 2. So there is no rush to jump in the sell side to catch the top of Wave 3. Here is a good opportunity for swing position that you can build incrementally as the price creates LL from lower TF up to Daily and Weekly TF. GL!
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by OTM-Fadhl
Price breaking out of a wyckoff balance to go unbalanceMy approach the market was pointing out market had found a balance zone starting on April 9th- today. Today I notice high volume on the bull side towards one of the resistance points which it broke and retraced. One it started to retrace I went to the smaller time frame to look for a sniper entry( 5min bullish and strong delta candle stick rejecting of a low volume node and the session vwap ). The balance zone was $1450 wide so it should go imbalance for the same amount or close. This trade is really a 25rr but im going for 8rr to pass my 2nd phase in my challange. This trade will not hit instill like Wednesday maybe even to the end of next week.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by leegram12
1
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets. However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached. Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices . The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior. This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter. Let's look more into it. Historical Patterns and the Paradox The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market. In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights. The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle. Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started. The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out. By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down. ....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all! And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025. Leveling Off and the Market Peak It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau. Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values. Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began. We have an exact matching of these conditions now. The Bear Market and Rate Easing Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess. All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply. A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then). Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip. ================================= Realistic Examples of the Paradox ================================= Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s): Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices. Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989. Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase. Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000): Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith. Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations. Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted. U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s): Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth. Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs. Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.
IG:NASDAQShort
by holeyprofit
Pre-market Plan- Consolidating at highs,potential gap fill below(The following is for personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.) Currently on the 4-hour chart, price remains above the 200 SMA. RSI shows slight overbought signals, while the EMA suggests there is still upward momentum. After the Asian session, a short-term downtrend has formed. Price is currently forming a downward flag, which could lead to further downside movement. After market open, price is likely to first move down to capture liquidity, with primary targets at 19062 and 19038. If a reversal occurs, there is a high probability for the price to retrace upward to fill the NDOG at 19266. If bulls take control, ideally this should happen before 10:00. Afterward, there is a chance to break through to EHPDA 19505, but considering the overbought market condition and lack of strong catalysts, the probability of a significant move higher today is relatively low. If the price continues to rise, watch levels at 19891 and 20370. Look for reversal opportunities at these key levels. To the downside, watch PDL 18493, and gaps at 18280 and 18000 as potential targets. Due to Friday’s influence, the market may range between 19061–19505 today, with a potential move to fill the lower gaps next week. Price action after the open will help further confirm market sentiment. If Bullish – Price should show a clear rebound after liquidity is taken. If Bearish – If price breaks 19036 and fails to rebound effectively, expect significant downside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by zygliu
NSDQ100 INTRADAY trend change supported at 18950 Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 19590 Resistance Level 2: 20070 Resistance Level 3: 20344 Support Level 1: 18460 Support Level 2: 17820 Support Level 3: 17330 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
US100 - Corrective Pullback into FVG + Golden Pocket setup?This 1H Nasdaq chart paints a classic structure of retracement within a bullish leg, offering potential for continuation after a clean corrective move into inefficiency. It's all about balance restoration before the next impulse. --- 1. Resistance Reaction & Local Distribution Price faced strong rejection at a clearly defined Resistance Zone , marking a point of supply where sellers stepped in with aggression. - The sharp rejection indicates profit-taking from earlier longs or a short-term distribution zone. - Structure is transitioning from impulsive to corrective, suggesting a pullback is unfolding rather than a trend reversal (at least for now). --- 2. Short-Term Demand Zone Holding Price (Gray Box) Before reaching deeper liquidity, price is hovering above a local demand block —a previously unmitigated consolidation that supported the last push up. - This gray zone may provide temporary support, but lacks depth of imbalance. - It's a weak floor, and smart money typically seeks deeper fills for proper re-accumulation. --- 3. Fair Value Gap Below (Primary Draw on Liquidity) The key area of interest lies just below, where a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) is formed. This imbalance represents a void in price action where buy-side inefficiency remains. - Aligned with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement range (confluence entry). - Price is likely to seek this inefficiency for proper rebalancing. - It’s not just a “fill the gap” play—it’s a liquidity grab where smart money is most likely waiting. This zone is ideal for reaccumulation before resuming the move higher. --- 4. Internal Structure Suggests Bullish Intent After Fill Price is forecasted to: - Step 1: Break beneath the short-term demand to draw in liquidity - Step 2: Tag the FVG zone, tapping into fresh demand - Step 3: Shift structure via higher low formation and breakout This is the behavior of an engineered retracement—not panic selling. --- 5. Macro Bias Still Bullish – Controlled Pullback While the short-term price action looks bearish, the context remains supportive of upward continuation: - No signs of aggressive selling below structure - Current flow is corrective, not distributive - FVG zone is strategically placed in alignment with optimal trade entry levels (OTE) If this zone holds, expect a return to bullish expansion targeting inefficiencies left behind on the push down. --- Conclusion: This setup is textbook: - Efficient rejection at resistance - Controlled retracement into FVG with Fibonacci confluence - Potential structural shift post-rebalance Watch for bullish intent to return once the imbalance is filled. Until then, this is not a breakdown—it's a setup.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Louigi_24
42
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity Within Fair Value GapGreetings Traders, On NAS100USD, the current market structure is clearly bullish. To capitalize on this momentum, we aim to align our intraday opportunities with the prevailing trend. At present, price has retraced into a fair value gap (FVG), presenting a potential high-probability zone for a bullish reaction. Upon receiving confirmation, this setup offers a favorable opportunity to enter long positions, with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool situated above. Key Focus: Structure: Bullish Entry Zone: Fair Value Gap (retracement) Target: Overhead liquidity pool As always, ensure confirmation before executing any trades, and remain disciplined in managing your risk. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
Potential bullish rise?USTEC has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the overlap resistance. Pivot: 18,950.55 1st Support: 18,467.08 1st Resistance: 20,258.77 1st Resistance: 34.50 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:USTECLong
by ICmarkets
2