NAS100 - Will the stock market go down?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the ascending channel breaks, expect corrective moves, and if this channel line is maintained, its upward path will be available to the next supply range.
In that range, we can also sell Nasdaq with appropriate risk-reward.
With Donald Trump announcing a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, trade tensions have once again taken center stage in global economic news, temporarily drawing attention away from more structural issues. However, these new developments have not diminished deeper concerns about the U.S. debt crisis and the federal government’s fiscal policies. Last week, the release of details regarding a new budget bill in Congress—coupled with Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—sparked renewed anxiety in the markets about America’s fiscal stability. These concerns have now taken on more complexity amid the intensifying trade conflict.
The bill, which narrowly passed through the House of Representatives, could potentially add up to $4 trillion to the federal debt. This projection triggered a sharp reaction in the U.S. Treasury market, causing long-term bond yields to rise significantly.
Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on European goods—specifically naming iPhones—negatively impacted market sentiment in U.S. equities. Past trade confrontations with China suggest that Trump typically avoids actions that significantly harm the stock market and tends to retreat from hardline positions. Thus, buying the dip might be a sound strategy, though accurately timing entry is crucial.
Pinpointing the right entry time remains difficult, and perhaps the most reliable signal would come directly from Trump himself. With the July 9 deadline for the tariffs approaching and no formal trade agreement in place, the best course for market participants is to remain cautious and watch for any signs of a policy reversal.
Despite persistent worries over budget deficits and rising Treasury yields, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the outlook for U.S. equities and bonds.
Morgan Stanley projects the following:
• The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6,500 by mid-2026, representing a roughly 10% gain from current levels. Key drivers of this growth include lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and productivity gains fueled by artificial intelligence.
• The recent spike in the 10-year Treasury yield is considered temporary, with expectations that it will decline to around 3.45% by mid-2026. There is still no strong evidence of a significant outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets.
Although the upcoming week will be shortened due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, a packed economic calendar starting Tuesday is expected to quickly reenergize market activity.
Tuesday will bring the release of durable goods orders for April and the consumer confidence index for May—two data points that could provide clearer insight into domestic demand and household spending trends. On Wednesday afternoon, attention will turn to the minutes from the May FOMC meeting, where investors will search for clues about potential shifts in the Federal Reserve’s tone regarding future rate cuts.
Thursday will be loaded with key economic indicators: weekly jobless claims, the first estimate of Q1 GDP, and existing home sales data. The week will conclude on Friday with the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which plays a pivotal role in shaping its monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is preparing to launch its new AI chip, Blackwell, in the Chinese market at a more affordable price. Based on the Blackwell architecture, the chip will be priced between $6,500 and $8,000—lower than the H20 model, which costs between $10,000 and $12,000.
This price reduction results from simpler technical specifications and a lower-cost manufacturing process. The new chip uses GDDR7 memory instead of high-bandwidth memory and lacks the advanced CoWoS packaging technology.
