NAS100 - Will the stock market go down?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the ascending channel breaks, expect corrective moves, and if this channel line is maintained, its upward path will be available to the next supply range.
In that range, we can also sell Nasdaq with appropriate risk-reward.
With Donald Trump announcing a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, trade tensions have once again taken center stage in global economic news, temporarily drawing attention away from more structural issues. However, these new developments have not diminished deeper concerns about the U.S. debt crisis and the federal government’s fiscal policies. Last week, the release of details regarding a new budget bill in Congress—coupled with Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—sparked renewed anxiety in the markets about America’s fiscal stability. These concerns have now taken on more complexity amid the intensifying trade conflict.
The bill, which narrowly passed through the House of Representatives, could potentially add up to $4 trillion to the federal debt. This projection triggered a sharp reaction in the U.S. Treasury market, causing long-term bond yields to rise significantly.
Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on European goods—specifically naming iPhones—negatively impacted market sentiment in U.S. equities. Past trade confrontations with China suggest that Trump typically avoids actions that significantly harm the stock market and tends to retreat from hardline positions. Thus, buying the dip might be a sound strategy, though accurately timing entry is crucial.
Pinpointing the right entry time remains difficult, and perhaps the most reliable signal would come directly from Trump himself. With the July 9 deadline for the tariffs approaching and no formal trade agreement in place, the best course for market participants is to remain cautious and watch for any signs of a policy reversal.
Despite persistent worries over budget deficits and rising Treasury yields, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the outlook for U.S. equities and bonds.
Morgan Stanley projects the following:
• The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6,500 by mid-2026, representing a roughly 10% gain from current levels. Key drivers of this growth include lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and productivity gains fueled by artificial intelligence.
• The recent spike in the 10-year Treasury yield is considered temporary, with expectations that it will decline to around 3.45% by mid-2026. There is still no strong evidence of a significant outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets.
Although the upcoming week will be shortened due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, a packed economic calendar starting Tuesday is expected to quickly reenergize market activity.
Tuesday will bring the release of durable goods orders for April and the consumer confidence index for May—two data points that could provide clearer insight into domestic demand and household spending trends. On Wednesday afternoon, attention will turn to the minutes from the May FOMC meeting, where investors will search for clues about potential shifts in the Federal Reserve’s tone regarding future rate cuts.
Thursday will be loaded with key economic indicators: weekly jobless claims, the first estimate of Q1 GDP, and existing home sales data. The week will conclude on Friday with the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which plays a pivotal role in shaping its monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is preparing to launch its new AI chip, Blackwell, in the Chinese market at a more affordable price. Based on the Blackwell architecture, the chip will be priced between $6,500 and $8,000—lower than the H20 model, which costs between $10,000 and $12,000.
This price reduction results from simpler technical specifications and a lower-cost manufacturing process. The new chip uses GDDR7 memory instead of high-bandwidth memory and lacks the advanced CoWoS packaging technology.
USTEC trade ideas
THIS WEEK'S NASDAQ HIGH PROBABILITY SWING TRADENASDAQ Trade Idea: Long Bias
Timeframe:
4HR | Daily (Confluence-based entry and targets)
Market Context:
Price is currently trading in discount, presenting a high-probability long setup based on the unfolding buy model.
We’ve identified a 4HR Buy-Side Imbalance / Sell-Side Inefficiency (BISI) zone acting as a magnet for price, suggesting potential accumulation and displacement to the upside.
Entry Zone:
Buy Zone:
🟢 21,070 – 21,050
This is inside the 4HR BISI, aligned with the buy model's accumulation phase and in optimal trade entry conditions (OTE) relative to the discount of the current dealing range.
Targets (Liquidity + Imbalance Fills):
TP1: 21,490
→ Equal highs + short-term liquidity sweep in premium.
TP2: 21,875
→ Partial fill of the Daily Sell-Side Imbalance / Buy-Side Inefficiency (SIBI).
TP3: 22,240
→ Full mitigation of the Daily BISI zone + extended liquidity run.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss (SL): Below 21,000 (structure invalidation & imbalance invalidation).
RRR: Minimum 1:3 to TP1, higher to subsequent levels.
Use partials on each target to secure profits and manage drawdown.
Confluences:
Price is in discount territory of current dealing range.
Entry aligns with 4HR BISI + internal liquidity engineering.
Upside targets align with equal highs, Daily inefficiencies, and liquidity pools in premium.
Trade Management Tips:
Watch for a bullish market structure shift on 15min–1HR to confirm.
Enter on a fair value gap (FVG) or mitigation of last down candle inside the 21,070–21,050 zone.
Be aware of macroeconomic news that may affect volatility near your entry/TP zones.
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long.
Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation.
Timeframe: 4H
Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill
Entry: After 4H candle close
Stop Loss: Below demand wick
Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance
Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R
This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience.
– THE 4H TRADER
US1OO SHORT TRADE IDEA Chart Breakdown:
1. Trendline Break:
A clear uptrend was in place, supported by the ascending blue trendline.
The price broke below this trendline, suggesting a potential reversal or correction.
After the break, price attempted to retest the trendline (a common behavior before continuation in the new direction).
2. Bearish Rejection:
Price got rejected around the trendline retest zone, which aligns with a resistance area marked in red.
This confluence zone suggests supply dominance, pushing the price lower.
3. Imbalance Zone (Fair Value Gap):
A pink rectangular zone marks an imbalance, often called a fair value gap (FVG)—where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficient trading volume.
These zones are typically revisited to "fill the imbalance."
4. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Recent candles show strong bearish momentum with little to no upper wicks, confirming a downward trend.
Multiple consecutive red candles support trend continuation.
📉 Bearish Setup Analysis:
Entry Zone: Around the trendline retest, near 21,000–21,100.
Target Zone: Imbalance/fair value gap around 20,100–20,200.
Stop-Loss Zone: Above the resistance area, around 21,150–21,200.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable (visualized with the green zone risk and extended red arrow for reward).
✅ Bearish Case Justification:
Trendline break and retest failure.
Rejection at key resistance/supply.
Imbalance acting as a price magnet.
Momentum strongly favors bears (based on Heikin Ashi structure).
⚠️ Risk Factors / Invalidations:
If price reclaims and holds above the trendline or breaks above 21,200, the bearish setup could be invalidated.
Major macro news or earnings could reverse the move rapidly.
Watch for divergences or weakening bearish momentum on smaller timeframes as price approaches the target zone.
🧭 Strategy Tip:
This could suit a swing short setup, especially for traders looking to capitalize on trendline break retests and imbalance fills. A tighter entry around the top of the rejection zone provides a better risk/reward.
USTEC100 Chart 4H, Trends To Watch for Short The provided USTEC 100 (US Tech 100) 4-hour chart highlights a strategic short (sell) trade setup based on technical price action and defined risk levels. The analysis suggests a bearish market bias, provided that specific price conditions are met and maintained. Let's explore the details and rationale behind this trade idea to understand how traders might approach this setup with calculated entries, targets, and stops.
As per the current market data presented, USTEC 100 is trading around 21,115.00 on Monday, 19 May 2025. The chart emphasizes a critical resistance zone highlighted in red, located at approximately 21,445.10. This level acts as a potential invalidation point for the short trade. If the price crosses above this red zone and a full candle closes above it, the entire bearish setup becomes invalid. This is a key condition – any move above this threshold signifies a shift in market sentiment and cancels the downward outlook.
USTECUSTEC price is near the important resistance zone 21345 and 22244. If the price cannot break through 22244, it is expected that the price will drop.
**Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
NASDAQ TP Smashed! Patience PaysBeautiful execution on NASDAQ — structure respected, EMAs aligned, and momentum confirmed. Waited for the clean setup, entered with confidence, and held until target. Discipline and timing were everything.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
US index futures and Apple tumble on Trump warningUS index futures and Apple shares tumbled in premarket as Trump warned the company of 25% tariffs if manufacturing of iPhones is not moved to the United States.
This is what Trump posted on social media:
"I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!"
Let's see if the recent stall in the rally will now turn into more than just a pause.
The other big concerns remains over US Treasuries and rising long term bond yields. Long-dated US Treasuries managed to claw back some of their recent losses yesterday and that helped the markets a little. But if the bond market selling resumes then yields will remain elevated and pressurize all sorts of risk assets. Without a fundamental shift in US fiscal policy, the implications of rising US borrowing costs and widening fiscal deficits means the US is on an unstable fiscal policy path, which could lead to heighten market volatility.
By Fawad Razaqzada
NAS100 – Triple Top or Last Push? Reversal Zone Identified!We’re now testing a massive supply zone on NASDAQ 100 around 21,124, and history tells us this level is not friendly to bulls. Look closely — this could be the start of a major reversal.
Here’s what matters:
1. Triple Top Structure Forming
We’ve hit this level three times since March with strong rejections. This signals distribution, not continuation.
2. Reversal Risk is High
Rejection from this zone could see price cascade down to:
17,662.1 – First demand and structure break zone
14,118.6 – Major volume base and untested demand
3. Bearish Divergence & Context
Momentum is dying, while price tags the same highs. Combined with macro uncertainty (AI bubble? Fed tightening?), smart money might be unloading.
4. Best Play?
Short setup from the supply zone with clear invalidation above ATH.
Target: 17,600 / 14,100 for the patient traders.
Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
Short Bias: Below 21,200
Entry Confirmation: Bearish engulfing on daily
Stop Loss: Above 21,400
Take Profit: 17,662.1 / 14,118.6
Chart says it all – Bulls in Trouble?
What’s your bias here – SHORT or LONG?
Smash the LIKE if this chart helped. Comment your view. Follow for daily setups!
Nas100NAS100 Safety Trade Setup
Strategy Name: Safety Trade — NAS100 (M5/M15)
Setup Description:
This is a momentum-based entry using the Safety Trade concept, identifying high-probability reversal or continuation zones based on layered confirmations across EMAs and price behavior.
Criteria:
• EMA Setup: 800 EMA (Trend), 200 EMA (Market structure), 50 EMA (Signal line), 5 EMA & 13 EMA (Entry signals)
• Zone Identification: Price pulls away from the 50 EMA and creates a significant gap (liquidity imbalance).
• Entry Signal:
• Red-Red-Green candle pattern for buys
• Green-Green-Red candle pattern for sells
• Confirmed by EMA re-alignment and RSI divergence (optional)
• Entry: After the third candle closes in the pattern.
• SL: Below/above the second candle wick.
• TP: 1:2 to 1:3 RR or key ADR zone.
• Preferred Session: New York (after 9:30 AM EST)
• Avoid: Major news releases or uncertain market conditions.
⸻
Disclaimer
This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading NAS100 and other indices involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always use proper risk management, do your own research, and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading
Nas100NAS100 Safety Trade Setup
Strategy Name: Safety Trade — NAS100 (M5/M15)
Setup Description:
This is a momentum-based entry using the Safety Trade concept, identifying high-probability reversal or continuation zones based on layered confirmations across EMAs and price behavior.
Criteria:
• EMA Setup: 800 EMA (Trend), 200 EMA (Market structure), 50 EMA (Signal line), 5 EMA & 13 EMA (Entry signals)
• Zone Identification: Price pulls away from the 50 EMA and creates a significant gap (liquidity imbalance).
• Entry Signal:
• Red-Red-Green candle pattern for buys
• Green-Green-Red candle pattern for sells
• Confirmed by EMA re-alignment and RSI divergence (optional)
• Entry: After the third candle closes in the pattern.
• SL: Below/above the second candle wick.
• TP: 1:2 to 1:3 RR or key ADR zone.
• Preferred Session: New York (after 9:30 AM EST)
• Avoid: Major news releases or uncertain market conditions.
⸻
Disclaimer
This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading NAS100 and other indices involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always use proper risk management, do your own research, and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Long - Day Trades 1:2 RRX2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Short - Day Trades 1:2 RRX2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ short for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice